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Bruce Calvert

@brucettcalvert.bsky.social
94 followers 34 following 215 posts

Interested in temperature statistics and datasets.

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Reposted by Bruce Calvert
Tim Osborn @timosbornclim.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
New version of the HadCRUT global temperature dataset released @colinmorice.bsky.social HadCRUT5.2 uses HadSST4.2 (with improved adjustments for SST biases during 1933-1961) and CRUTEM5.2 (with updates to stations in China, USA and Canada). Here is the difference from the previous version 5.1
Alt text: Timeseries from 1850 to 2026 of global average temperature from HadCRUT versions 5.1 and 5.2 and their difference.
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Reposted by Bruce Calvert
Tim Osborn @timosbornclim.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I’ve updated the long-running (starts 1866) CRU Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). This lets us compare the currently developing El Niño with earlier events including 1877-78. 2026 has developed very quickly, similar to the 1997-98 one. Thick line is 3-month running mean, with y-axis reversed.
1866-present timeseries of Climatic Research Unit SOI with some major El Niño events marked.
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Reposted by Bruce Calvert
Berkeley Earth @berkeleyearth.org · 02/09/2026
News we could not be more excited to share: the description paper of our high-resolution dataset is now available for review and comment at ESSD. The record provides global coverage at 0.25° resolution, built from 58,311 weather stations extending back to 1750. Pre-print: tinyurl.com/9dw7jbnf
tinyurl.com
Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature – High-Resolution (BEST-HR): a 0.25° Global Gridded Temperature Data Set for Climate Monitoring
Abstract. We present version 2 of the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature dataset, a global observational temperature record that now features enhanced spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) and a new regr...
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Reposted by Bruce Calvert
Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
The Berkeley Earth version 2 paper is now in preprint. The new version is 0.25° resolution and incorporates ERA5-based spatial patterns. I was very happy to contribute to this paper, including graphs and comparisons with other datasets. essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
essd.copernicus.org
Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature – High-Resolution (BEST-HR): a 0.25° Global Gridded Temperature Data Set for Climate Monitoring
Abstract. We present version 2 of the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature dataset, a global observational temperature record that now features enhanced spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) and a new regr...
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Reposted by Bruce Calvert
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 01/09/2026
Our Berkeley Earth high resolution dataset paper is now available for open review over at ESSD! Thanks to @rarohde.bsky.social and Bruce Calvert for all the hard work to get it released: essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
essd.copernicus.org
Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature – High-Resolution (BEST-HR): a 0.25° Global Gridded Temperature Data Set for Climate Monitoring
Abstract. We present version 2 of the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature dataset, a global observational temperature record that now features enhanced spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) and a new regr...
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Reposted by Bruce Calvert
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 01/09/2026
The emissions scenarios underlying the next generation of climate model runs that will be featured in the upcoming IPCC 7th Assessment Report are officially out! I have a big new explainer over at Carbon Brief taking an in-depth look at what they mean and whats changed: www.carbonbrief.org/...
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Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
The Berkeley Earth version 2 paper is now in preprint. The new version is 0.25° resolution and incorporates ERA5-based spatial patterns. I was very happy to contribute to this paper, including graphs and comparisons with other datasets. essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
essd.copernicus.org
Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature – High-Resolution (BEST-HR): a 0.25° Global Gridded Temperature Data Set for Climate Monitoring
Abstract. We present version 2 of the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature dataset, a global observational temperature record that now features enhanced spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) and a new regr...
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Reposted by Bruce Calvert
Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
Regarding a recent community science paper on 1.5°C of #globalwarming (doi.org/10.5194/essd...), the graph I like the most shows #seaice extent anomalies for different datasets and reconstructions. The most striking feature is HadISST2 disagreement with Antarctic reconstructions.
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Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
Regarding a recent community science paper on 1.5°C of #globalwarming (doi.org/10.5194/essd...), the graph I like the most shows #seaice extent anomalies for different datasets and reconstructions. The most striking feature is HadISST2 disagreement with Antarctic reconstructions.
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Reposted by Bruce Calvert
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
How well can we quantify when 1.5 °C of global warming has been exceeded? Open review until 11 March essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
essd.copernicus.org
How well can we quantify when 1.5 °C of global warming has been exceeded?
Abstract. Parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement agreed to limit the long-term increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C and pursue efforts to keep temperatures below 1.5 °C relative to p...
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Reposted by Bruce Calvert
Elizabeth Kent @lizk40.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
The paper describing the new DCENT-I dataset of monthly global surface temperature since 1850 is just published. rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
DCENT‐I: A Globally Infilled Extension of the Dynamically Consistent ENsemble of Temperature Dataset
DCENT-I infills data gaps in DCENT, producing spatially coherent temperature fields (top) and a slightly higher GMST warming estimate (bottom). Top: December 1877 temperature anomalies (°C; 1961–1990...
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Reposted by Bruce Calvert
Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
The Kotz et al. paper is also quite relevant as it was ranked the #2 #climate paper of 2024 (www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-the...). The Kotz et al. damage function has also been incorporated into REMIND, the world's most used process-based integrated assessment model. While the CMIP7 scenarios...
carbonbrief.org
Analysis: The climate papers most featured in the media in 2024 - Carbon Brief
Thousands of peer-reviewed journal articles were published over 2024, helping shape online discourse around climate change.
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Reposted by Bruce Calvert
Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
I have been following this issue for a few months. The Kotz et al. study unintentionally used faulty Uzbekistan data (e.g. some years with more than 100% gdp growth) which explained most of their results (www.nature.com/articles/s41...). Kotz et al. have since released an unpublished update...
nature.com
Data anomalies and the economic commitment of climate change - Nature
Nature - Data anomalies and the economic commitment of climate change
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Reposted by Bruce Calvert
Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
It is disappointing to learn that recent work to update the U.S. social cost of carbon, by updating the 2022 GIVE model, has been removed from the EPA's website. @climateofgavin.bsky.social or @michaelemann.bsky.social should make the link available @realclimate.bsky.social. arxiv.org/abs/2509.00212
arxiv.org
Economic Impacts of Climate Change in the United States: Integrating and Harmonizing Evidence from Recent Studies
This paper synthesizes evidence on climate change impacts specific to U.S. populations. We develop an apples-to-apples comparison of econometric studies that empirically estimate the relationship betw...
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Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
It is disappointing to learn that recent work to update the U.S. social cost of carbon, by updating the 2022 GIVE model, has been removed from the EPA's website. @climateofgavin.bsky.social or @michaelemann.bsky.social should make the link available @realclimate.bsky.social. arxiv.org/abs/2509.00212
arxiv.org
Economic Impacts of Climate Change in the United States: Integrating and Harmonizing Evidence from Recent Studies
This paper synthesizes evidence on climate change impacts specific to U.S. populations. We develop an apples-to-apples comparison of econometric studies that empirically estimate the relationship betw...
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Reposted by Bruce Calvert
Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
Interesting paper on the economic impacts of #climatechange, including the impact of #extremeweather. It's impressive to see such a rigorous methodology and robustness checks. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
aeaweb.org
Estimating Macrofiscal Effects of Climate Shocks from Billions of Geospatial Weather Observations
(July 2025) - The literature studying the macroeconomics of weather has focused on temperature and precipitation annual averages, while microstudies have focused more on extreme weather measures. We c...
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Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
Interesting paper on the economic impacts of #climatechange, including the impact of #extremeweather. It's impressive to see such a rigorous methodology and robustness checks. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
aeaweb.org
Estimating Macrofiscal Effects of Climate Shocks from Billions of Geospatial Weather Observations
(July 2025) - The literature studying the macroeconomics of weather has focused on temperature and precipitation annual averages, while microstudies have focused more on extreme weather measures. We c...
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Reposted by Bruce Calvert
Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 13/07/2025
New paper finds that the transition from wooden to canvas buckets for sea surface temperature measurements occurred much earlier than previously though, suggesting that the early 1900s were slightly warmer than previously thought. #climatechange doi.org/10.1029/2025...
doi.org
Re‐Evaluating Historical Sea Surface Temperature Data Sets: Insights From the Diurnal Cycle, Coral Proxy Data, and Radiative Forcing
Changes in the diurnal cycle of ship-based sea surface temperature (SST) measurements indicate that a wooden-to-canvas bucket transition occurred by 1910 Leading SST products apply corrections fo...
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Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 13/07/2025
New paper finds that the transition from wooden to canvas buckets for sea surface temperature measurements occurred much earlier than previously though, suggesting that the early 1900s were slightly warmer than previously thought. #climatechange doi.org/10.1029/2025...
doi.org
Re‐Evaluating Historical Sea Surface Temperature Data Sets: Insights From the Diurnal Cycle, Coral Proxy Data, and Radiative Forcing
Changes in the diurnal cycle of ship-based sea surface temperature (SST) measurements indicate that a wooden-to-canvas bucket transition occurred by 1910 Leading SST products apply corrections fo...
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Reposted by Bruce Calvert
Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
I finished processing an updated #temperature dataset (DCENT_MLE_v1.1) using data from @lizk40.bsky.social and the DCENT team. According to this dataset, 2024 was 1.71 °C warmer than the 1850-1900 average with a 95% confidence interval of [1.57,1.85] °C. #climatechange #globalwarming
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Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
I finished processing an updated #temperature dataset (DCENT_MLE_v1.1) using data from @lizk40.bsky.social and the DCENT team. According to this dataset, 2024 was 1.71 °C warmer than the 1850-1900 average with a 95% confidence interval of [1.57,1.85] °C. #climatechange #globalwarming
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Reposted by Bruce Calvert
Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 22/06/2025
I like the new paper by @xuekeli.bsky.social and @michaelemann.bsky.social on climate change causing a reduction in temperature gradients leading to conditions more favourable to quasi-stable resonances in the Northern mid-latitudes. Although, I have some minor criticisms:
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Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 22/06/2025
I like the new paper by @xuekeli.bsky.social and @michaelemann.bsky.social on climate change causing a reduction in temperature gradients leading to conditions more favourable to quasi-stable resonances in the Northern mid-latitudes. Although, I have some minor criticisms:
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Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
Look at all of this unnecessary traffic and waste of tax money due to the #King Charles visit in #Ottawa this morning. According to opinion polls, most Canadian's are against the #monarchy. This idea that #Canada should invite a foreign monarch to show #Trump how independent we are is crazy to me.
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Reposted by Bruce Calvert
Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
I find it astonishing that the IEA and NGFS #climate scenarios completely exclude high-end scenarios. It's one thing to exclude the much criticized SSP5, but they don't include no mitigation scenarios such as SSP3. This is completely inconsistent with the IPCC scenarios, including the upcoming ones.
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Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
I find it astonishing that the IEA and NGFS #climate scenarios completely exclude high-end scenarios. It's one thing to exclude the much criticized SSP5, but they don't include no mitigation scenarios such as SSP3. This is completely inconsistent with the IPCC scenarios, including the upcoming ones.
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Reposted by Bruce Calvert
Mark D. Levine @marklevinenyc.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
Look at this graph. This just happened. We have gone back to the 1800s.
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Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
This article is a very good plain language explaination of the importance of sea ice when estimating the amount of #globalwarming. I am very happy to have my work highlighted. NSIDC's continuing work on improving historic sea ice reconstructions greatly benefits #science. nsidc.org/news-analyse...
nsidc.org
The impact of sea ice on global temperature trends
A new study focuses on improving global temperature data sets in light of uneven warming across the globe. To fill gaps in historical climate records, the study relies in part on sea ice data from the...
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Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
This article is a very good plain language explaination of the importance of sea ice when estimating the amount of #globalwarming. I am very happy to have my work highlighted. NSIDC's continuing work on improving historic sea ice reconstructions greatly benefits #science. nsidc.org/news-analyse...
nsidc.org
The impact of sea ice on global temperature trends
A new study focuses on improving global temperature data sets in light of uneven warming across the globe. To fill gaps in historical climate records, the study relies in part on sea ice data from the...
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Reposted by Bruce Calvert
Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 14/02/2025
HadCRU_MLE Version 1.3 is now publicly available! #climate #globalwarming www.wdc-climate.de/ui/entry?acr...
wdc-climate.de
Metadata for 'Maximum Likelihood Estimates of Temperatures using Data from the Hadley Centre and the Climate Research Unit (Version 1.3)'
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Reposted by Bruce Calvert
Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 28/01/2025
It’s embarrassing, but there was a bug in my code where I was not applying the Wallis et al. adjustments to those 149 stations (194 was a typo), so the estimate I provided previously is missing about 0.0007°C of #warming. I am currently rerunning the code.
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Reposted by Bruce Calvert
Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 23/01/2025
I have finished processing HadCRU_MLE_v1.3. 2024 was 1.62°C warmer than the late 19th century, with an 95% CI of [1.53,1.71]°C. The update also includes improved bias adjustments for 194 stations (doi.org/10.1002/joc....) and a sensitivity test with COBE-SST3 sea ice. #climate #change #globalwarming
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Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 23/01/2025
I have finished processing HadCRU_MLE_v1.3. 2024 was 1.62°C warmer than the late 19th century, with an 95% CI of [1.53,1.71]°C. The update also includes improved bias adjustments for 194 stations (doi.org/10.1002/joc....) and a sensitivity test with COBE-SST3 sea ice. #climate #change #globalwarming
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Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
All surface temperature products for 2024 are now live. All show 2024 is the warmest year (very clearly). The estimates of the change since the pre-industrial (1850-1900) are more uncertain but range from 1.46 to 1.62ºC. It is therefore *likely* this was the first year that exceeded 1.5ºC.
five time series of global mean surface temperature changes starting low and noisy in the 1850s - rising clearly since the 1960s - and showing 2024 was clearly the warmest.
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 03/01/2025
The release of a new NOAA sea surface temperature (SST) dataset... + @ametsoc.bsky.social Study: "Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Version 6 (ERSSTv6): Part I. An Artificial Neural Network Approach" doi.org/10.1175/JCLI...
doi.org
Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Version 6 (ERSSTv6): Part I. An Artificial Neural Network Approach
Abstract NOAA’s Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (SST; ERSST) is operational global SST product based on in situ observations, which has been widely used monitoring and assessing global ...
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Reposted by Bruce Calvert
Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 07/12/2024
My first Bluesky poll: When I produce a minor update to HadCRU_MLE in early 2025, Should I use CRUTEM5 or CRUTEM5_eba (i.e., with improved exposure bias corrections from Wallis et al. (2024))? Bluesky doesn't yet have an inbuilt poll feature, so please reply with your preference.
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Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 07/12/2024
My first Bluesky poll: When I produce a minor update to HadCRU_MLE in early 2025, Should I use CRUTEM5 or CRUTEM5_eba (i.e., with improved exposure bias corrections from Wallis et al. (2024))? Bluesky doesn't yet have an inbuilt poll feature, so please reply with your preference.
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Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
The GloSAT paper is an exciting development and a big contribution to our understanding of #globalwarming. There is much to praise about the paper. As a minor criticism, I suspect that the proposed GloSAT methodology underestimates LSAT homogenization uncertainty prior to 1850.
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Reposted by Bruce Calvert
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 05/12/2024
How did global air temperatures vary before 1850? We can now answer this from direct instrumental observations. The new GloSAT dataset is under review! Morice et al.: essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
Timeseries of global average air temperature back to the 1780s
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Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 23/11/2024
I have one minor criticism of the wonderful new paper by Sippel et al. The implicit prior distribution of their ridge regressions results in too much prior weight being assigned to polar grid cells compared to equatorial grid cells. @lizk40.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Early-twentieth-century cold bias in ocean surface temperature observations - Nature
Independent statistical reconstructions of the global mean surface temperature from either ocean or land data show that existing estimates of early-twentieth-century ocean surface temperatures are too...
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Reposted by Bruce Calvert
Robert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
A new paper led by Sebastian Sippel just appeared in Nature arguing that ocean temperature measurements in the early 20th century have a cold bias. It's a fun story illustrating the process of scientific discovery, so let me talk about it a bit. 🧵 www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Early-twentieth-century cold bias in ocean surface temperature observations - Nature
Independent statistical reconstructions of the global mean surface temperature from either ocean or land data show that existing estimates of early-twentieth-century ocean surface temperatures are too...
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Reto Knutti @retoknutti.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
Redrawing the global warming stripes. In a new paper led by Sebastian Sippel published in Nature today, we show that the early 20th century global ocean surface temperatures and thereby global mean surface temperature were warmer than previously thought. Thread... (1/13)
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Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 17/10/2024
A new 0.25° resolution dataset of monthly temperatures and sea ice concentrations since 1850 has been released by scientists from the Japan Meteorological Agency: COBE-SST3 and COBE-LSAT3. A daily dataset is also available (COBE-SST3H). www.metsoc.jp/jmsj/EOR/202...
metsoc.jp
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Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 03/10/2024
A new infilled global temperature dataset is now available: DCENT_MLE_v1. This dataset estimates more #globalwarming than other datasets: an increase of 1.59 °C from the late 19th century to 2023, with an uncertainty range of [1.48,1.72] °C. www.wdc-climate.de/ui/entry?acr...
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Andrew Dessler @andrewdessler.com · 07/09/2024
hey @richardtol.bsky.social, many of the IAMs assume that damages scale as T^2. What's the best argument in favor of T^2 (as opposed, e.g., to T^3, T^4 ...)? Is there a good publication describing this?
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Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 04/09/2024
🚨 New paper alert!🚨 Our new ensemble for the GISTEMP temperature reconstruction is now published: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.... This is a full exploration of the uncertainties in station and ocean data & the methodology which allows you to test the sensitivity of any diagnostic
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Peter Jacobs @pjacobs.bsky.social · 05/09/2024
A NASA GISTEMPv4 Observational Uncertainty Ensemble by Lenssen et al. (incl @climateofgavin.bsky.social & me) early online at JGR: Atmospheres!🧪⚒️ 200 tasty equally likely spatially explicit realizations of global temperature, comprehensively characterizing temp uncertainties! doi.org/10.1029/2023...
The "i guess we doin circles now" meme, which depicts a surprised factory worker standing in front of a conveyor belt that apparently normally spits out red triangles discovering a blue circle has been produced.  

In this version an individual black line is drawn on the triangles and a multicolored ensemble of lines drawn on the circle, and the worker's caption reads "i guess we doin ensembles now" instead of "i guess we doin circles now". 

Full meme description here: https://knowyourmeme.com/editorials/guides/whats-the-triangle-factory-and-i-guess-we-doin-circles-now-meme-the-viral-blue-circle-meme-explained
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 30/08/2024
"A Dynamically Consistent ENsemble of Temperature at the Earth surface since 1850 from the DCENT dataset | Scientific Data" New global temperature data set: forget d(e)cent, this is awesome. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
A Dynamically Consistent ENsemble of Temperature at the Earth surface since 1850 from the DCENT dataset - Scientific Data
Scientific Data - A Dynamically Consistent ENsemble of Temperature at the Earth surface since 1850 from the DCENT dataset
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 02/08/2024
One global temperature dataset to rule them all and in the darkness bind them Is there a better way to combine global temperature datasets? diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2024/08/02/o...
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com
One global temperature dataset to rule them all and in the darkness bind them
Is there a better way to combine global temperature datasets?
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Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 28/07/2024
A new paper on #climatechange by Adrien Bilal and Diego Känzig has a serious methodological flaw: the underlying statistical model does not allow for any long-term secular decline in the GDP per capita growth rate other than through temperature change. www.nber.org/papers/w32450
nber.org
The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global vs. Local Temperature
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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