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Semih Çakır

@mascakir.bsky.social
1.5K followers 1.6K following 55 posts

Political scientist at University of Ottawa. Previously at University of Montreal and University of Vienna - I study polarisation, partisanship and democratic citizenship. www.semihcakir.com

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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Congratulations 🎉
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Miriam Sorace @miriamsorace.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Delighted to be co-chairing the Electoral and Voting Behaviour section @epssnet.bsky.social with the brilliant @carolinaplescia.bsky.social! We welcome papers on the themes below. Have an idea for a Roundtable or Authors Meet Critics session? Contact us! ⏰ 13 Nov. 2026 👉 Call: shorturl.at/CB8Lr
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Alina Vranceanu @alinavranceanu.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
📢 Call for expressions of interest for a 4-years PhD position within my research project ‘Minority rights in an age of immigration: democracy, deservingness and elite influences’. ⏳ Deadline: 9 October. Questions welcome!
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Ruth Dassonneville @rdassonneville.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
‼️ A new paper with Patrick Fournier and @zeynsom.bsky.social is now out in @wepsocial.bsky.social! We examine citizens’ perceptions of parties that combine left/progressive stances on some issues with right/conservative stances on other issues - which we refer to as ideological inconsistency. 🧵
tandfonline.com
Voters’ perceptions of ideologically inconsistent parties
There is a growing consensus in party politics that new fault lines are emerging, and scholars increasingly characterise competition as multidimensional. In a multidimensional space, parties can ad...
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European Journal of Political Research @ejprjournal.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
65:3 🐟️ Who speaks🔉for Europe? 🌍 @mascakir.bsky.social finds that with low turnout, regular voters dominate but could boosting participation could reduce bias in #PolicyRepresentation?
buff.ly
Do voters and non-voters differ in their policy preferences? | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
Do voters and non-voters differ in their policy preferences? - Volume 65 Issue 3
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Ruth Dassonneville @rdassonneville.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Had a *great* time talking with @mascakir.bsky.social about our @cpsjournal.bsky.social paper on the behaviour of young voters!
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
🎙️ New Reasonably Political Podcast episode! @rdassonneville.bsky.social explains why younger voters are more likely to support left-wing parties in some elections, but not others, and how political parties shape age divides at the ballot box. Tune in for more👇 www.buzzsprout.com/2608748/epis...
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Christina Gahn @christinagahn.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Excited to share our new paper in @thejop.bsky.social with @krausewe.bsky.social! Parties polling just below an electoral threshold are far less likely to clear it: a self-fulfilling prophecy that diminishes when polls communicate uncertainty. 🗳️📊 www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Very interesting, congratulations 🎉
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Dieter Stiers @dieterstiers.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
🚨New publication (with Shane Singh) in @poqjournal.bsky.social! Proponents of compulsory voting often claim that obligatory turnout will increase citizens' political involvement, equalising levels of democratic attitudes and political engagement in the electorate. But does it? 👇
academic.oup.com
Does Compulsory Voting Improve Democratic Attitudes and Engagement? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Belgium
Abstract. For over a century, scholars, policymakers, and advocates have argued that compulsory voting not only boosts turnout but also promotes prodemocra
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Ruth Dassonneville @rdassonneville.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
‼️ New paper with Ian McAllister (ANU) out at @respol.bsky.social. We use @ess-survey.bsky.social data to study over-time changes in the association between education and left-right self-placements.
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
🎙️ The second episode of the Reasonably Political Podcast is now out! Authentic or Scripted? Why Do Some Politicians Seem More “Real” Than Others and Why Does It Matter? I discuss political authenticity with John Kenny (@johnkenny.bsky.social). 🎧 Listen here: www.buzzsprout.com/2608748/epis...
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
“Writing is hard.” Thrilled to share that this simple idea led to a new paper in Political Analysis! Where most text methods focus on content, I test if expression is also effortful action. I find simple measures like character counts reveal attitudes and predict voting. cup.org/4cUmoXi 1/
Text as Behavior
Text as Behavior published in Political Analysis

by Omar Wasow

Abstract

Text analysis typically focuses on content—such as sentiment or topic—but expression is also a form of effortful action. Building on this insight, I propose using simple features of open-ended tasks to study text as behavior. This approach treats expression, such as writing, as cognitively, emotionally and temporally “costly” for subjects but inexpensive for researchers. I show basic statistics like the number of characters can approximate effort and significantly improve estimation of quantities of interest, including candidate choice, the probability of turning out to vote and psychological states about which a subject may not be fully aware. Further, these methods can convert nonresponse into informative data; validate survey instruments; serve as mechanism checks; be hard for a subject to “game”; work across different languages and analogize well to real-world situations. In sum, text as behavior can help address a range of issues related to quantifying attitudes and actions.
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Peter Luca Versteegen @versteegenluca.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
🚨 Western democracies are often described as polarized. @katharinalawall.bsky.social, @mtsakiris.bsky.social + I study how polarization actually feels. Now published in @ejprjournal.bsky.social, we asked citizens in 5 European countries to report their emotions ⬇️ www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
Thank you Anton!
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
Thank you Ben!😊
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
First episode is out with Philippe Mongrain from @voxpoplabs.bsky.social Should politicians follow public opinion or lead? And are politicians and citizens on the same page on this question? 2/2 🧵 🎧You can listen here: open.spotify.com/episode/7vSD...
open.spotify.com
Should Politicians Follow Public Opinion or Lead? Are Citizens and Politicians on the Same Page?
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
🎙️ Excited to share a new podcast project: Reasonably Political! The goal is to make political science more accessible and connect research to real-world debates. 1/2 🧵
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
❗Citizens are most “well informed” when the information environment is richest, during campaigns. This is encouraging, but many key democratic processes (e.g., accountability, responsiveness, political participation) happen *between* elections. Yet this is precisely when citizens tune out.
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Using CSES (@cses.bsky.social) data across 21 democracies + BES panel data (@britishelectionstudy.com), we show: 📉 Accuracy declines after elections. 📈 Accuracy increases as elections approach. 💡 Driven by people becoming less informed (forgetting), not by updating to new party positions.
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
When the environment cools down, citizens tune out. Information declines, associations become less accessible, and perceptual accuracy decreases.
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Most evidence on this comes from election periods. We argue this gives a misleading picture. Elections create a "hot" information environment: more information, more exposure, more attention, and greater accessibility of ideological associations --> higher perceptual accuracy.
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
🚨 New paper with great co-authors (@oguzhan-alkan.bsky.social @rdassonneville.bsky.social @zeynsom.bsky.social) in Political Behavior! How well do citizens perceive where parties stand? 🤔 Open access: rdcu.be/fb83Z
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
TLDR: Good news: Voters and non-voters are usually more similar than we assume. Differences between them are relatively rare. Bad news: When they do differ, low turnout can amplify these differences and elections can end up reflecting regular voters more than citizens at large. 2/2
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
🚨New blog post 🚨 If fewer people vote, do elections still represent what policies citizens want? I summarize research using data from 29 European democracies on whether voters and non-voters actually differ in their policy preferences and when turnout matters for representation. 1/2
semihcakir.com
Does Low Voter Turnout Matter? Evidence from Europe |
Voters and non-voters in European democracies often hold similar views. But when gaps emerge, they are not trivial and their impact depends on turnout.
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Alessandro Nai @alessandronai.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
After 3 years and 5,322 emails (and counting) our Encyclopedia of Political Communication is finally out at @elgarpublishing.bsky.social 📚 Three volumes ⭐ 431 entries 🎓 581 wonderful authors from across the world A very short 🧵
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Jakob Kasper @jakobkas.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
Excited to share a new preprint with @bnbakker.bsky.social, @ylelkes.bsky.social & @gijsschumacher.bsky.social! doi.org/10.31234/osf... Affective polarization research focuses almost exclusively on valence, despite affect having at least two core dimensions. We show that emotional arousal matters!
doi.org
OSF
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Dylan Paltra @dpltr22.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
🚨Publication Alert! My first first-author publication with @msaeltzer.bsky.social and @pluggedchris.bsky.social is out in @polbehavior.bsky.social, which began as my bachelor's thesis. We study how party polarization shapes affective polarization—with a particularly important role of the AfD. (1/7)🧵
Cover page of the article. "Affective States: Cultural and Affective Polarization in a Multilevel-Multiparty System" by Dylan Paltra, Marius Sältzer and Christian Stecker. "Affective Polarization—the growing mutual dislike among partisan groups—has been identified as a major concern in democracies. Although both economic and cultural ideological divides contribute to ideological polarization, their affective consequences can differ. This paper argues that cultural polarization becomes especially consequential when mobilized by far-right parties. Using data from 116 elections in Germany’s 16 states (1990-2023), we combine more than 550 state-level manifestos with more than 150,000 survey responses to examine how party polarization translates into voter affect. Our analyses show that both economic and cultural polarization increase affective divides, but cultural disagreements fuel hostility only in the presence of the Alternative for Germany (AfD). Acting as a cultural entrepreneur, the AfD amplifies the emotional impact of cultural divisions such as immigration, employing affective rhetoric and provoking strong rejection from other parties and voters. These findings highlight the catalytic role of far-right parties in transforming ideological competition into affective polarization."
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
Congrats Dylan, this is great! 👏🏻
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European Journal of Political Research @ejprjournal.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
Who speaks🔉for Europe? 🌍 @mascakir.bsky.social finds that with low turnout, regular voters dominate but could boosting participation could reduce bias in #PolicyRepresentation?
buff.ly
Do voters and non-voters differ in their policy preferences? | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
Do voters and non-voters differ in their policy preferences?
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
With @elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social, @theresmatthiess.bsky.social, we are designing a survey experiment with low-income Germans 🇩🇪 Survey folks: any tips on reliable institutes, good practices, or any useful approach for harder-to-reach groups? We are really grateful for any hint or experience 🙏
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Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
We have a new tenure-track job in @lsegovernment.bsky.social at AP level (empirical political science, open subfield): jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/... Please apply and share with colleagues who might be interested!
jobs.lse.ac.uk
Assistant Professor in Political Science
Assistant Professor in Political Science, , <p style="text-align: center;"><em><span>LSE is committed to building a diverse, equitable and truly inclusive university</span></em></p> <p style="text-ali...
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 20/11/2025
Thank you Jennifer!
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
Thank you and glad you love it!
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
Congratulations! 🎉 Looking forward to the outputs already!
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
Full article (OPEN ACCESS):
cambridge.org
Do voters and non-voters differ in their policy preferences? | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
Do voters and non-voters differ in their policy preferences?
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
So what's the takeaway? ✅Good news: Voters and non-voters usually share similar policy preferences. ⚠️Bad news: When turnout is low, even small differences can introduce bias. 🗳️Overall: Low turnout isn't always a disaster for this specific question, but it is far from ideal. 10/10
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
When turnout is low, the electorate reflects regular voters' preferences. Higher turnout brings peripheral voters into the mix and reduces this bias. Perpetual non-voters also differ, but they are usually a smaller group, so they introduce less bias overall. 9/10
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
Moreover, using panel data from the UK (@britishelectionstudy.com), I examine policy preferences of three voter types: 1️⃣Regular voters: they vote consistently 2️⃣Peripheral voters: they vote intermittently 3️⃣Perpetual non-voters: they almost never vote They differ in their policy preferences. 8/10
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
Bias that disparities induce ultimately depends on turnout level. Biases are stronger when turnout is lower. This is also why compulsory voting might make sense! 7/10
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
Nevertheless, when differences *do* emerge, they are not trivial. Using Cohen's d, most significant differences (in black) can be considered small but meaningful. 6/10
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
But, here's the thing: Disparities are not the norm. At the survey level, voters and non-voters usually hold similar policy views. Most differences are sporadic and do not reach statistical significance. 5/10
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
In the pooled analysis, voters are: 🔵 more right-wing 🔵 less in favour of redistribution 🔵 more supportive of state intervention and spending 🔵 less supportive of same-sex marriage 🔵 more restrictive on immigration 🔵 more willing to restrict privacy rights to combat crimes 🔵 more pro-Europe 4/10
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
Using data from 29 European democracies, I examine differences across the left-right spectrum, economic issues (redistribution, state intervention, spending), social issues (immigration, same-sex marriage, environment, and civil liberties), and European integration. 3/10
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
First, why do we care? Turnout has declined across democracies. If voters and non-voters have different policy preferences, then low turnout means elections may not accurately represent what the broader public wants. This would be problematic for representation. 2/10
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
Do policy preferences of voters and non-voters differ in European democracies? My new article in @ejprjournal.bsky.social finds: Yes, sometimes, but this is not the norm. Let's break it down. 🧵 1/10
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Laurenz Ennser-Jedenastik @laurenzennser.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
🚨New paper out in @jeppjournal.bsky.social: doi.org/10.1080/1350... @manuelwagner.bsky.social & I re-conceptualize class representation to take into account social mobility between classes and variation in how individuals enter politics.
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
@jmaycas.bsky.social
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
@johnkenny.bsky.social @fdelacuesta.bsky.social @alexanderdalheimer.bsky.social @beatrizlasherasmas.bsky.social @christinagahn.bsky.social @bseisl.bsky.social @elenaheinz.bsky.social @martav.bsky.social @frawin.bsky.social
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Semih Çakır @mascakir.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
Proof that political scientists do leave the conference center. Granville Island, Vancouver - APSA 2025 🇨🇦🍁
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