Abstract. Land carbon sinks are responsible for removing about a quarter of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, and make up approximately half of total global carbon sinks. Uncertainty in the response of lan...

Climate models show permafrost carbon emissions scale linearly with warming exposure during temperature overshoot, also when AMOC-driven cooling partly offsets them. These climate feedbacks are crucia...

Abstract. Under historical warming, terrestrial ecosystems within the northern high latitudes have been a net carbon sink, providing vital mitigation against anthropogenic emissions of CO2. However, t...

Permafrost carbon–climate feedback amplifies Earth system tipping risks, Steinert, Norman J, Munday, Gregory, Sandstad, Marit, Sanderson, Benjamin M, Wunderling, Nico

The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review, Ritchie, Paul D L, Steinert, Norman J, Abrams, Jesse F, Alkhayuon, Hassan, Arnscheidt, Constantin W, Bochow, Nils, Chapman, Ruth R, Clarke, Joseph, Dennis, Donovan P, Donges, Jonathan F, Flores, Bernardo M, Garbe, Julius, Högner, Annika, Huntingford, Chris, Lenton, Timothy M, Lohmann, Johannes, Lux-Gottschalk, Kerstin, Milkoreit, Manjana, Möller, Tessa, Pearce-Kelly, Paul, Pereira, Laura, Quinn, Courtney, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Stuenzi, Simone M, Swingedouw, Didier, Van der Laan, Larissa N, Zickfeld, Kirsten, Wunderling, Nico

Abstract. Under historical warming, terrestrial ecosystems within the northern high latitudes have been a net carbon sink, providing vital mitigation against anthropogenic emissions of CO2. However, t...

Abstract. Conventional climate scenarios omit fast-timescale human-system dynamics like policy rollback or economic shocks. The climate system's slow response to GHG emissions allows these `fast' ter...

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Abstract. Resolved spatial information for climate change projections is critical to any robust assessment of climate impacts and adaptation options. However, the range of spatially resolved future sc...

Abstract. As permafrost thaws, the permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) can amplify the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Carbon Emissions (TCRE) and the Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) by introduc...

Abstract. The proportionality between global mean temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 predicted in Earth system models (ESMs) is the foundation of carbon budgeting frameworks. Deviations from ...

Abstract. The proportionality between global mean temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 predicted in Earth system models (ESMs) is the foundation of carbon budgeting frameworks. Deviations from ...

A strong intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) shift occurs in 1–2 of 8 CMIP6 models simulating overshoot, not depicting the most likely but a plausible high-impact outcome The ITCZ shift drives ...

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Abstract. Climate policies evolve quickly, and new scenarios designed around these policies are used to illustrate how they impact global mean temperatures using simple climate models (or climate emul...

Permafrost ecosystem carbon loss may continue under net-zero and negative emissions, hindering climate mitigation efforts.

Abstract. Previous phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have primarily focused on simulations driven by atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), for both idealized ...