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Jón Steinsson 🗽

@jonsteinsson.bsky.social
5K followers 1.2K following 84 posts

Economics professor at UC Berkeley. eml.berkeley.edu/~jsteinsson

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 19/05/2025
Natural gas is pretty much disappearing from the electricity mix in California.
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
Congratulations @s-stantcheva.bsky.social !!! Wonderful choice!
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The Quarterly Journal of Economics @qjeharvard.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
#QJE May 2025, #1, “When Did Growth Begin? New Estimates of Productivity Growth in England from 1250 to 1870,” by Bouscasse (@paulbouscasse.bsky.social), Nakamura, and Steinsson (@jonsteinsson.bsky.social): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
doi.org
When Did Growth Begin? New Estimates of Productivity Growth in England from 1250 to 1870*
Abstract. We estimate productivity growth in England from 1250 to 1870. Real wages over this period were heavily influenced by plague-induced swings in the
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
The Fed spent down a lot of credibility when it looked through the temporary post-Covid inflation and managed to engineer a rare soft landing. But this probably means it has less of an ability to do so again now (less credibility). That means a more aggressive approach is probably optimal this time
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
I guess Trump is going for import substitution policy. That sure made lots of countries rich in the past.
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Stefano DellaVigna @sdellavi.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
I finally made the transition from X to here, looking forward to interacting with the econ community here @tedmiguel.bsky.social @evavivalt.bsky.social @rthaler.bsky.social @cega-uc.bsky.social @socscipredict.bsky.social
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
CDU/CSU &SPD have just proposed a sea change in German fiscal policy: - defence spending above 1% of GDP exempt from debt brake - 10-year €500bn special fund for infrastructure - looser debt rules for states - further debt-brake reform in new Bundestag
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American Bar Association @americanbar.org · 03/03/2025
The ABA rejects efforts to undermine the courts and the legal profession. Read full message: www.americanbar.org/news/abanews...
We speak today on behalf of the legal profession and its members who seek to live by the oath each took upon admission to the bar.

We reject efforts to undermine the courts and the profession. We will not stay silent in the face of efforts to remake the legal profession into something that rewards those who agree with the government and punishes those who do not. Words and actions matter. And the intimidating words and actions we have heard must end. They are designed to cow our country’s judges, our country’s courts and our legal profession. These efforts cannot be sanctioned or normalized.

There are clear choices facing our profession. We can choose to remain silent and allow these acts to continue or we can stand for the rule of law and the values we hold dear. We call upon the entire profession, including lawyers who serve in elected positions, to speak out against intimidation. We acknowledge that there are risks to standing up and addressing these important issues. But if the ABA and lawyers do not speak, who will speak for the organized bar? Who will speak for the judiciary? Who will protect our system of justice? If we don’t speak now, when will we speak?

The American Bar Association has chosen to stand and speak. Now is the time for all of us to speak with one voice. We invite you to stand with us.
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 18/02/2025
For the record, as of the start of Trump's second term, the US economy is on a tear.
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 15/02/2025
These DOGE guys are so smart!!! "Not realizing they oversee the country's weapons stockpile"
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 13/02/2025
Getting rid of the penny seems sensible to me. But there are arguments on both sides. Here are a few. 1/
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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
This is a useful example of how economists’ mental model of climate change leads us astray. The idea is that optimal climate policy is a carbon tax of ~$200/ton, and IRA is equivalent to a carbon tax around $10/ton, so we need 20x stronger policy. That's wrong 🧵
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Shengwu Li @shengwuli.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
🚨 Oprea (2024 AER) argued that prospect theory choice anomalies were not due to risk, but due to complexity-driven mistakes. But this new analysis convinces me that Oprea (2024) is substantially wrong. In my opinion, the paper should be retracted.
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
Interesting!
A Bayesian Assessment of the Origins of COVID-19 using Spatiotemporal and Zoonotic Data
Andrew T. Levin #33428

Abstract:
This paper uses Bayesian methods in conjunction with spatiotemporal and zoonotic data to evaluate the odds ratio for two hypotheses regarding the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic, namely, an accidental laboratory leak of a chimera virus or the transmission of a natural virus from an infected wildlife mammal. The overall Bayes factor is decomposed into 4 components: (1) the odds that the outbreak would occur in the People’s Republic of China (PRC); (2) the odds that the outbreak would occur in Wuhan, conditional on its location in PRC; (3) the odds of observing the spatiotemporal pattern of confirmed COVID-19 cases with no known link to the specific wholesale market where wildlife mammals were being sold, conditional on the outbreak taking place in Wuhan; and (4) the odds of observing the spatiotemporal pattern of confirmed vendor cases at that market, conditional on the outbreak taking place in Wuhan. These four conditional Bayes factors are estimated as 2.3:1, 20:1, 27:1, ! and 12:1, respectively, and hence the overall odds ratio is 14,900:1, indicating overwhelming evidence in favor of the hypothesis that the pandemic resulted from an accidental lab leak. This conclusion is robust to alternative specifications of the detailed statistical analysis.
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
Private money? Should the government be so heavily involved in our monetary system? Do we even need a central bank? These are questions discussed in section 9 of my new “Money and Banking” chapter: eml.berkeley.edu/~jsteinsson/...
eml.berkeley.edu
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 23/01/2025
Just posted a new textbook chapter on “Money and Banking.” Covers bank runs, panics, banking regulation, lender of last resort, payment systems, development of paper money, ledger-based money, fractional reserve banking, bills of exchange, free banking, and more! eml.berkeley.edu/~jsteinsson/...
eml.berkeley.edu
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 19/01/2025
The end of history viewpoint so prevalent in contemporary thought is dealt another severe blow: venal corruption and systematic corruption are back. This like other 'I didn't think that could happen again' moments underscore the value of economic history and history more generally.
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Eric Lipton NYT @ericlipton.nytimes.com · 18/01/2025
NYT: Trump begins selling a new crypto token, in a move assailed as an ethical breach. “It is literally cashing in on the presidency — creating a financial instrument so people can transfer money to the president’s family” one ethics lawyer said www.nytimes.com/live/2025/01...
nytimes.com
Trump begins selling a new crypto token, in a move assailed as an ethical breach.
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
David Brooks nails it: www.nytimes.com/2025/01/15/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Pete Hegseth Is the Secretary of Defense We Deserve
If you thought the former TV host would be asked important questions at the confirmation hearings this week, you must be living under the illusion that we live in a serious country.
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 30/12/2024
This is a super interesting paper cognitive endurance.
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Rafe Meager (they/them) @economeager.bsky.social · 28/12/2024
this abstract is INSANE
We estimate productivity growth in England from 1250 to 1870. Real wages over this period were heavily influenced by plague-induced swings in the population. Our estimates account for these Malthusian dynamics. We find that productivity growth was zero prior to 1600. Productivity growth began in 1600—almost a century before the Glorious Revolution. Thus, the onset of productivity growth preceded the bourgeois institutional reforms of 17th century England. We estimate productivity growth of 2% per decade between 1600 and 1800, increasing to 5% per decade between 1810 and 1860. Much of the increase in output growth during the Industrial Revolution is explained by structural change—the falling importance of land in production—rather than faster productivity growth. Stagnant real wages in the 18th and early 19th centuries—“Engel’s Pause”—is explained by rapid population growth putting downward pressure on real wages. Yet, feedback from population growth to real wages is sufficiently weak to permit sustained deviations from the “iron law of wages” prior to the Industrial Revolution.
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 28/12/2024
John Joseph Wallis's 2006 paper "The Concept of Systematic Corruption in American History" is a ridiculously good paper. We usually think of corruption as rent seeking. But systematic corruption is rent creating to feed a political coalition. This is a huge barrier to growth.
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
One dissent, but four dissenting dots! (Can you spot them?)
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 15/12/2024
The serving size of my kids' advent calendar is three pieces!?! My son argues that he should be able to open three per day or have three calendars! I'm in a real bind here. What is corporate America smoking!
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 15/12/2024
Intercontinental electrical cables! Now that is a cool technology! Hope it becomes economical soon. ember-energy.org/latest-insig...
ember-energy.org
Security and efficiency: The case for connecting Europe and North America | Ember
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
I wonder if this is a silver lining from the forced disruptions of Covid. But somehow unique to the US?!? Perhaps a consequence of Bidenomics? No! Could that be? In any case, very interesting.
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
This was funny before, but it is really funny today.
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
If you are giving a discussion at a conference, you should ALWAYS correspond with the author about your thoughts before the conference. (IMHO)
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
Banks in the United States used to hold a lot of capital.
Capital-asset ratio of national banks in the United States from 1863-2021. Started off around 35%. Fell gradually to less than 10% after WWII. Has been inching up since 1983. But still only around 15% in 2021.
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
The dollar is up. Markets still seem to believe in monetary dominance. I worry that many take monetary dominance for granted and don't think about how much our prosperity depends on it.
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 13/11/2024
I so agree with Emily on these points! Experts need to communicate nuance and be honest about shades of gray. The current approach treats the population as if it were really dumb. And guess what, people don't like it. www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | How to Talk About Fluoride, Vaccines and Raw Milk
How to build trust and make America healthy again.
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 09/11/2024
End the Fed at your own peril. Alesina and Summers (1993):
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 02/11/2024
Given Trump's behavior now, what is he going to be like in four years!
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Binyamin Appelbaum @bcappelbaum.bsky.social · 28/10/2024
Why I'm voting www.nytimes.com/2024/10/28/o...
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 25/10/2024
The failure to endorse should actually be a more powerful signal than an endorsement. Things are so bad that the Washington Post -- of all newspapers -- is afraid to endorse Harris. That is really bad. Should affect people much more than a predictable endorsement would.
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 24/10/2024
Just listened to a super interesting lecture by Chad Jones on AI. Main point: Our society is already very well off. So, we have a lot to lose from rogue AI causing a catastrophe. For standard utility functions, even very little risk of a catastrophe is not worth it, no matter the upside. Unless. 1/2
web.stanford.edu
Research Papers by Charles I. Jones
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 23/10/2024
Worth listening to. What’s Wrong With Donald Trump? www.nytimes.com/2024/10/22/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | What’s Wrong With Donald Trump?
I think there’s an answer. But it’s not age — or, at least, it’s not just age.
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 21/10/2024
I'm in Philly and thinking about how if not for Andrew Jackson and Martin Van Buren, Philly would probably be the financial capital of the US.
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 15/10/2024
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... Very interesting! I'm amazed that Fed HR let them do this, but otherwise very interesting. Striking that they find these significant letter differences, but then almost no differences in actual job outcomes.
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 14/10/2024
Great choice!! Congratulations dacemoglumit.bsky.social, Simon, and James!!
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 22/10/2023
Unusually interesting article about education: www.nytimes.com/2023/10/22/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | What Most American Schools Do Wrong
When teachers stay with their students longer, they can see beyond the surface and recognize the brilliance beneath.
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 22/10/2023
It is curious to me how the stock market reacted to Covid early on. It seems like the market woke up all of a sudden on Feb 21st 2020. Why the abrupt change when information presumably trickled out?
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 17/10/2023
Public service announcement to students: When writing an exam, don't use a red pen!
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 16/10/2023
One of my least favorite aspects of the dominant culture in our field is that if there is one good estimate of something (say the MPC) then it gets much harder to publish additional estimates (especially if they confirm earlier results). 1/4
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 13/10/2023
Good piece on intellectual history. Actually, both Modigliani and Friedman acknowledged the crucial contributions of Dorothy Brady, Rose Friedman, and Margaret Reid to the development of PIH/LCH. But they got little wider recognition at the time. www.nytimes.com/2023/10/13/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Behind the Most Famous Men in Economics There Have Always Been Women
Consider the case of Milton Friedman.
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 13/10/2023
I'm an optimist and so I am thinking about the prospect of a centrist unity majority in the House.
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 09/10/2023
Maybe everyone has ODed on reading about Covid. But this is a pretty interesting article IMO: www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | We Should Have Known So Much About Covid From the Start
The immunologist Michael Mina says even its worst aspects should have been expected from a new pathogen for which there was no immunity.
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 07/10/2023
If you have science-oriented, school-aged kids and don't know about Veritasium, you should check it out. It is amazing. Simply amazing. (Where to start? Try out "Gravity is not a force" or "How electricity actually works") www.youtube.com/channel/UCHn...
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 07/10/2023
The idea of wage-price spirals resonates with regular people that experience high inflation. I have always felt uneasy that I don't know how to think about this idea formally. Guido and Ivan reinterpret a relatively standard model to help us think about what a wage-price spiral is. Very insightful:
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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 06/10/2023
Good article by Rich Clarida on the post-Covid inflation. I agree that the first order thing was the big relative price change in goods and that it did not make sense to engineer a recession to make service prices fall to offset increasing goods prices www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/i...
project-syndicate.org
The Anatomy of the Global Inflation Spike | by Richard Clarida - Project Syndicate
Richard Clarida considers the causes and consequences of post-pandemic price surges in their global context.
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