iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 19/05/2025

Natural gas is pretty much disappearing from the electricity mix in California.

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 08/05/2025

Good to hear from you! But unfortunately I won't be going. Sorry to miss you. Would have been great to catch up.

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 05/04/2025

The Fed spent down a lot of credibility when it looked through the temporary post-Covid inflation and managed to engineer a rare soft landing. But this probably means it has less of an ability to do so again now (less credibility). That means a more aggressive approach is probably optimal this time

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 11/03/2025

I guess Trump is going for import substitution policy. That sure made lots of countries rich in the past.

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Stefano DellaVigna @sdellavi.bsky.social · 05/03/2025

I finally made the transition from X to here, looking forward to interacting with the econ community here @tedmiguel.bsky.social @evavivalt.bsky.social @rthaler.bsky.social @cega-uc.bsky.social @socscipredict.bsky.social

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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

CDU/CSU &SPD have just proposed a sea change in German fiscal policy: - defence spending above 1% of GDP exempt from debt brake - 10-year €500bn special fund for infrastructure - looser debt rules for states - further debt-brake reform in new Bundestag

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American Bar Association @americanbar.org · 03/03/2025

The ABA rejects efforts to undermine the courts and the legal profession. Read full message: www.americanbar.org/news/abanews...

We speak today on behalf of the legal profession and its members who seek to live by the oath each took upon admission to the bar.

We reject efforts to undermine the courts and the profession. We will not stay silent in the face of efforts to remake the legal profession into something that rewards those who agree with the government and punishes those who do not. Words and actions matter. And the intimidating words and actions we have heard must end. They are designed to cow our country’s judges, our country’s courts and our legal profession. These efforts cannot be sanctioned or normalized.

There are clear choices facing our profession. We can choose to remain silent and allow these acts to continue or we can stand for the rule of law and the values we hold dear. We call upon the entire profession, including lawyers who serve in elected positions, to speak out against intimidation. We acknowledge that there are risks to standing up and addressing these important issues. But if the ABA and lawyers do not speak, who will speak for the organized bar? Who will speak for the judiciary? Who will protect our system of justice? If we don’t speak now, when will we speak?

The American Bar Association has chosen to stand and speak. Now is the time for all of us to speak with one voice. We invite you to stand with us.

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 18/02/2025

For the record, as of the start of Trump's second term, the US economy is on a tear.

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 15/02/2025

These DOGE guys are so smart!!! "Not realizing they oversee the country's weapons stockpile"

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 13/02/2025

Hard to tell. But more and more feasible.

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 13/02/2025

We are trending towards less and less cash. So, the fiscal costs of the penny are not likely to balloon fast. So, overall, not a big deal. But on balance I support getting rid of the penny. 9/

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 13/02/2025

The attachment argument is the only reasonable argument I can think of in favor of the penny. The economic argument for the penny is super weak (IMHO). But then the argument against the penny is not that strong. $40 million is not a lot of money for a big country. 8/

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 13/02/2025

Now, some people are attached to the penny. Just like others are attached to national parks (which the government spends money on). So, perhaps that attachment is worth $40 million a year. Totally reasonable debate. I am not attached to the penny. So, I support getting rid of it. 7/

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 13/02/2025

The rounding issue would be a bigger deal for the nickel. So, it is worth a bit more to keep the nickel. 6/

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 13/02/2025

Firms would continue to want to price at $9.99 etc. for psychological reasons. But then taxes are added and you buy several items at a time. The final digit of the total price of your purchase (with taxes) quickly becomes random. So, rounding would be symmetric. 5/

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 13/02/2025

Getting rid of the penny would entail rounding of prices. But that is not a big deal. Rounding is symmetric. So, prices need not rise on average and probably wouldn't. 4/

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 13/02/2025

The fiscal cost of the penny is small. About $40 million per year on average. (The cost of the nickel is larger. More like $80 million.) So, modest fiscal savings. 3/

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 13/02/2025

It costs 3.7 cents to produce a penny (and rising). So, the government is losing money on the penny. But the government spends money on lots of things. Is it worth it? 2/

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 13/02/2025

Getting rid of the penny seems sensible to me. But there are arguments on both sides. Here are a few. 1/

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 11/02/2025

Next chapter will be about interest rates.

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 11/02/2025

This is a useful example of how economists’ mental model of climate change leads us astray. The idea is that optimal climate policy is a carbon tax of ~$200/ton, and IRA is equivalent to a carbon tax around $10/ton, so we need 20x stronger policy. That's wrong 🧵

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Shengwu Li @shengwuli.bsky.social · 07/02/2025

🚨 Oprea (2024 AER) argued that prospect theory choice anomalies were not due to risk, but due to complexity-driven mistakes. But this new analysis convinces me that Oprea (2024) is substantially wrong. In my opinion, the paper should be retracted.

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 24/01/2025

Private money? Should the government be so heavily involved in our monetary system? Do we even need a central bank? These are questions discussed in section 9 of my new “Money and Banking” chapter: eml.berkeley.edu/~jsteinsson/...

eml.berkeley.edu

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 23/01/2025

Take a look at the Wallis (2006) paper I cite in the chapter. It is about how the US conquered related corruption in the 19th century. A hard nut to crack for sure. (Paper should be available on the NBER's website.)

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 23/01/2025

This is part of an undergraduate macroeconomics textbook I am writing. There are six chapters posted at the moment. Enjoy! eml.berkeley.edu/~jsteinsson/...

eml.berkeley.edu

J�n Steinsson -- Teaching Material

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 23/01/2025

Just posted a new textbook chapter on “Money and Banking.” Covers bank runs, panics, banking regulation, lender of last resort, payment systems, development of paper money, ledger-based money, fractional reserve banking, bills of exchange, free banking, and more! eml.berkeley.edu/~jsteinsson/...

eml.berkeley.edu

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 20/01/2025

Well, a lot of people also think that old things will stop happening. That is the sense I was using the term.

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 19/01/2025

The end of history viewpoint so prevalent in contemporary thought is dealt another severe blow: venal corruption and systematic corruption are back. This like other 'I didn't think that could happen again' moments underscore the value of economic history and history more generally.

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Eric Lipton NYT @ericlipton.nytimes.com · 18/01/2025

NYT: Trump begins selling a new crypto token, in a move assailed as an ethical breach. “It is literally cashing in on the presidency — creating a financial instrument so people can transfer money to the president’s family” one ethics lawyer said www.nytimes.com/live/2025/01...

nytimes.com

Trump begins selling a new crypto token, in a move assailed as an ethical breach.

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 01/01/2025

I think the bar for 2024 will keep going up a little over the next few weeks. So, you are safe.

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 30/12/2024

This is a super interesting paper cognitive endurance.

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Rafe Meager (they/them) @economeager.bsky.social · 28/12/2024

this abstract is INSANE

We estimate productivity growth in England from 1250 to 1870. Real wages over this period were heavily influenced by plague-induced swings in the population. Our estimates account for these Malthusian dynamics. We find that productivity growth was zero prior to 1600. Productivity growth began in 1600—almost a century before the Glorious Revolution. Thus, the onset of productivity growth preceded the bourgeois institutional reforms of 17th century England. We estimate productivity growth of 2% per decade between 1600 and 1800, increasing to 5% per decade between 1810 and 1860. Much of the increase in output growth during the Industrial Revolution is explained by structural change—the falling importance of land in production—rather than faster productivity growth. Stagnant real wages in the 18th and early 19th centuries—“Engel’s Pause”—is explained by rapid population growth putting downward pressure on real wages. Yet, feedback from population growth to real wages is sufficiently weak to permit sustained deviations from the “iron law of wages” prior to the Industrial Revolution.

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 28/12/2024

John Joseph Wallis's 2006 paper "The Concept of Systematic Corruption in American History" is a ridiculously good paper. We usually think of corruption as rent seeking. But systematic corruption is rent creating to feed a political coalition. This is a huge barrier to growth.

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 19/12/2024

One rarely sees this so explicitly.

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 18/12/2024

One dissent, but four dissenting dots! Intrigue!

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 18/12/2024

One dissent, but four dissenting dots! (Can you spot them?)

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 15/12/2024

The serving size of my kids' advent calendar is three pieces!?! My son argues that he should be able to open three per day or have three calendars! I'm in a real bind here. What is corporate America smoking!

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 15/12/2024

Intercontinental electrical cables! Now that is a cool technology! Hope it becomes economical soon. ember-energy.org/latest-insig...

ember-energy.org

Security and efficiency: The case for connecting Europe and North America | Ember

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

I wonder if this is a silver lining from the forced disruptions of Covid. But somehow unique to the US?!? Perhaps a consequence of Bidenomics? No! Could that be? In any case, very interesting.

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

This was funny before, but it is really funny today.

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