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Eva Vivalt

@evavivalt.bsky.social
1.8K followers 365 following 324 posts

Assistant prof in economics at the University of Toronto, research on cash transfers and evidence-based decision-making, J-PAL affiliate. evavivalt.com

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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Very frustrating when a paper is rejected on the basis of a negative review that is not just largely AI-generated (per Pangram) but materially incorrect. If you're going to use AI for your reviews, at least be thoughtful about it.
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
OpenResearch released a public-use data set for the OpenResearch Unconditional income Study (ORUS) - a guaranteed income experiment that paid $1,000/month to 1,000 people for 3 years, with a control group receiving $50/month. Test your hypotheses here: data.openresearchlab.org
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Have a study, want to collect forecasts, but don't have time? New pilot: the SSPP will draft a forecasting survey for you with AI based on your pre-analysis plan. RA assistance is available to help polish the draft. Contact team@socialscienceprediction.org if interested.
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Have a study, want to collect forecasts, but don't have time? New pilot: the SSPP will draft a forecasting survey for you with AI based on your pre-analysis plan. RA assistance is available to help polish the draft. Contact team@socialscienceprediction.org if interested.
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
So great to see this out! Over ten years in the making.
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
What happens when someone receives $1,000/month for 3 years? The effects don't stop with the recipient. In this new NBER working paper, we examine what changed for partners, households, friends & family after 1,000 people received $1,000/month with 2,000 in a control group. 🧵1/
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VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
🆕 Can forecasting social science make experiments better? Today on VoxDev, Stefano DellaVigna (UC Berkeley) &Eva Vivalt (University of Toronto) discuss why research forecasts overestimate effects, and how to correct and reweight them: ow.ly/jfjL50ZpWlv
ow.ly
Can forecasting social science make experiments better?
Evidence from 100 Social Science Prediction Platform projects shows that research forecasts are too optimistic on average, but still predictive enough to improve study design when they are combined, shrunk, and weighted carefully.
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Congratulations to Cabo Verde.
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
How can better forecasts of research results improve power calculations? Presenting in just a few minutes!
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
In advance of listening to a presentation on FRI's forecasts of the economic effects of AI, I thought to update this tracker: evavivalt.com/writing/fri-...
evavivalt.com
FRI's AI Forecast Survey vs. Reality - Eva Vivalt
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
If Spain wins the whole thing, then this World Cup they would have had 0 losses and only 1 tie: Cabo Verde.
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Off to NBER SI, where I'll present on forecasting research results using data from the Social Science Prediction Platform. I'll be at sessions each of the three weeks! (Hey, if jobs are changing to be more based on interaction....) Please connect & catch up if you'll be around.
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Basically: we are flying blind and just hoping everything works out, and not only works out, but goes as well as possible. I don't think people are taking that seriously enough yet. I signed this statement because it's important to build common knowledge.
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
I joined economists and AI researchers in signing “We Must Act Now: A Statement on AI’s Transformation of the Economy.” wemustactnow.ai
wemustactnow.ai
We Must Act Now
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
And here it is.
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
They're looking to block access to Fable - nevermind any more powerful future models - to non-Americans. archive.ph/vDzFQ
archive.ph
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Interesting read. I genuinely worry all the time about Canada falling behind with AI. It seems so hard to turn around and the US absolutely has its own incentives.
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
If you use any of my work in your teaching, please let me know so I can cite it in my tenure package! Thanks! (We have a pretty late deadline here.)
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Very happy to be presenting on forecasting research results, based on the Social Science Prediction Platform data, at the IDB's EconNet seminar series. There's a public Zoom which you can find by googling, in case it's of interest (trying to avoid bots).... It starts at 12 ET!
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Pretty cool project!
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Ethan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
This is from the co-founder of Anthropic, interesting that he refers to public sources when he is also obviously privy to lots of internal sources that he cannot discuss. I assume he sees the same thing at Anthropic. importai.substack.com/p/import-ai-...
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Try it out and see how it does for you. If you're willing to share its report on power, I'll give you free credits.
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Did you ever wish you could get help with your power calculations? Now you can! earlyreview.ai will give you estimates of treatment effects based on your early project documents (e.g., pre-analysis plans, registered reports, grant proposals, etc.).
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
Just a note that with all this "LLMs accurately identifying users from text", some free text responses in allegedly de-identified survey data could in principle identify research respondents, if not today then soon.
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 04/04/2026
Gah, apparently for the past two weeks all my past blog posts got overwritten by AI-generated summaries of them. Thanks for nothing, Claude.
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drewfudenberg.bsky.social @drewfudenberg.bsky.social · 04/04/2026
Two thoughtful essays about the impact of LLMs on graduate education: ergosphere.blog/posts/the-ma... economics.mit.edu/sites/defaul... From personal experience I think the self-control problem mentioned in the first essay is very real.
ergosphere.blog
The machines are fine. I'm worried about us.
On AI agents, grunt work, and the part of science that isn't replaceable.
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Brian Nosek @briannosek.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
SCORE, a collaboration of 865 researchers, is now released as three papers in Nature, six preprints, and a lot of data (cos.io/score/). SCORE examined repeatability of findings from the social-behavioral sciences and tested whether human and automated methods could predict replicability.
cos.io
SCORE | Center for Open Science
SCORE shows that there is no shortcut to producing credible research findings, and there is no single indicator of trustworthiness. Research progress depends on transparency, rigor, and establishing r...
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Bastian Becker @beckerbastian.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
Also finding it hard to keep up with new research? I built something to fix this. SciLove — swipe through recent papers in your field. The feed learns from your saves. Also matches you with researchers saving your work back (opt-out if you prefer). www.scilove.app 3,000+ journals, updated daily
scilove.app
SciLove — Discover new research on the go
A personalized feed of the latest peer-reviewed papers — swipe to save, skip, and make connections in minutes a day.
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Going to SXSW to talk about human and AI forecasting! If anyone wants to meet up, LMK.
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
Wow, potentially useful tool for those considering offers rn: www.econphdplacements.com
econphdplacements.com
Where do PhD economists land?
Comprehensive placement data from 40 top economics departments spanning 30+ years. Explore 8,000+ placements by name, field, and department.
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
I can't find a post about it to repost, but Claude Code is getting a "voice" mode. They've presumably made it for coders, but I'd just been vibe coding something much worse to fulfill this kind of function, which could be a game-changer for almost blind people. 1/2
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
Since people are still applying to this, I'll leave it open but start to review applications (so early is better, but if you haven't applied yet you still can).
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
I'm hiring pre-docs interested in applied microeconomics, especially with AI. Check out the link and apply! Deadline for the first round of review is tomorrow, Feb. 24. evavivalt.com/2026/02/pre-...
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Adding a link to the tool, so you can try it out yourself: earlyreview.ai
earlyreview.ai
EarlyReview
Verification for pre-analysis plans and registered reports
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
I tested out EarlyReview on a random set of pre-analysis plans posted to the AEA RCT Registry. All received comments. Hardly any passed all the checks. 1/
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
I'm looking for a few pre-analysis plans / registered reports to highlight as examples on EarlyReview (with permission). If interested, DM me. I can provide free credits!
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
I've built a new tool! You can upload your pre-analysis plan or registered report, pre-submission to a registry or journal, and it will screen it for completeness, clarity, and consistency. 1/ 🧵
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Hiring a pre-doc! Please circulate in your networks and apply here: evavivalt.com/2026/02/pre-...
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
Other site: all Claude Code all the time. This site: crickets. Hmm.
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
I remember visiting New Orleans and hanging out with some people doing research on the coast. There are areas where people know the water's getting close, but they're like "great, in 10 years it will be on my doorstep!" They don't seem to think about year 11. Analogy for AI?
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
Blatantly lying is a poor strategy when people are not that stupid.
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
I was into crypto arbitrage in its heyday. I remember the crunch for time, when every minute felt (and was) insanely valuable. The current moment, with Claude Code etc., feels like that.
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The Onion @theonion.com · 08/01/2026
DHS Warns Any Action By Americans Will Be Treated As Domestic Terrorism theonion.com/dhs-warns-any-action-b…
DHS Warns Any Action By Americans Will Be Treated As Domestic Terrorism
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Itai Sher @itaisher.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
Federal obstruction like this is a threat to the rule of law and our basic rights as citizens. It cannot be that immigration officers kill citizens and the federal government then blocks investigation.
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
This is the clearest video analysis, lining up the different videos. The guy's feet are clear, he leans over.
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NBER @nber.org · 22/12/2025
Featured in the latest Digest: Consequences of Organ Procurement Reform www.nber.org/digest/20251...
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
🚨 New working paper! How well do people predict the results of studies? @sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
It's really fun to be working in a cafe and overhear someone talking about basic income and your work!
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 13/10/2025
An inspired choice! I was thinking there may be a prize for innovation this year, and it is so richly deserved.
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Eva Vivalt @evavivalt.bsky.social · 02/09/2025
We've updated a paper on the 3-year, $1000/month U.S. guaranteed income study. New results, in 3 figures: 🧵 1) Subjective well-being significantly improved in the treatment group in year 1, but there were no significant differences between the treatment & control group after that. 1/
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