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Jón Steinsson 🗽

@jonsteinsson.bsky.social

5K followers 1.2K following 84 posts

Economics professor at UC Berkeley. eml.berkeley.edu/~jsteinsson

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 19/05/2025

Natural gas is pretty much disappearing from the electricity mix in California.

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 22/04/2025

Congratulations @s-stantcheva.bsky.social !!! Wonderful choice!

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 03/02/2025

Interesting!

A Bayesian Assessment of the Origins of COVID-19 using Spatiotemporal and Zoonotic Data
Andrew T. Levin #33428

Abstract:
This paper uses Bayesian methods in conjunction with spatiotemporal and zoonotic data to evaluate the odds ratio for two hypotheses regarding the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic, namely, an accidental laboratory leak of a chimera virus or the transmission of a natural virus from an infected wildlife mammal. The overall Bayes factor is decomposed into 4 components: (1) the odds that the outbreak would occur in the People’s Republic of China (PRC); (2) the odds that the outbreak would occur in Wuhan, conditional on its location in PRC; (3) the odds of observing the spatiotemporal pattern of confirmed COVID-19 cases with no known link to the specific wholesale market where wildlife mammals were being sold, conditional on the outbreak taking place in Wuhan; and (4) the odds of observing the spatiotemporal pattern of confirmed vendor cases at that market, conditional on the outbreak taking place in Wuhan. These four conditional Bayes factors are estimated as 2.3:1, 20:1, 27:1, ! and 12:1, respectively, and hence the overall odds ratio is 14,900:1, indicating overwhelming evidence in favor of the hypothesis that the pandemic resulted from an accidental lab leak. This conclusion is robust to alternative specifications of the detailed statistical analysis.

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 30/12/2024

This is a super interesting paper cognitive endurance.

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 18/12/2024

One dissent, but four dissenting dots! (Can you spot them?)

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 22/11/2024

Banks in the United States used to hold a lot of capital.

Capital-asset ratio of national banks in the United States from 1863-2021. Started off around 35%. Fell gradually to less than 10% after WWII. Has been inching up since 1983. But still only around 15% in 2021.

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 09/11/2024

End the Fed at your own peril. Alesina and Summers (1993):

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 14/10/2024

Great choice!! Congratulations dacemoglumit.bsky.social, Simon, and James!!

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 22/10/2023

It is curious to me how the stock market reacted to Covid early on. It seems like the market woke up all of a sudden on Feb 21st 2020. Why the abrupt change when information presumably trickled out?

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 03/10/2023

The thing that I find most surprising about the Fed's current dot plot is the "Long Run". A majority is still putting down 2.5%. This seems way low to me. If I were on the FOMC, I would be one of the top dots. Perhaps a little groupthink on this point at the Fed?

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Jón Steinsson 🗽 @jonsteinsson.bsky.social · 23/09/2023

I recently did some "level accounting" for a few European countries as part of an update of some teaching material. TFP in Europe has really collapsed relative to the US since 2000. Quite striking. (I "account" for differences in K/Y and hours per working-age person in this exercise.)

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