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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social

@jonathanjlevin.bsky.social
1.1K followers 363 following 242 posts

Bloomberg Opinion columnist

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Reposted by @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social
Bloomberg Opinion @opinion.bloomberg.com · 25/02/2026
“More Americans are working today than at any time in the history of our country,” Trump said during his #SOTU address. That’s true — but job growth has actually slowed since he took office: bit.ly/3OxrLC6
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
The best course of action is to exercise some humility, understand all sides of the debate and realize no one has all the answers. www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
bloomberg.com
Are We in a Stock Bubble? This Is the Only Thread You Need
High valuations are supporting equity markets and the economy. Everyone has a view on whether it’s sustainable.
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
Wherever you fall, sitting out the debate isn't an option. This is the most important market question of our time, and risks abound for bulls and bears alike.
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
And they can argue that today's P/E multiples aren't directly comparable to 1929 or 1999. There are large structural differences in the economy, and a much different earnings backdrop...
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
They can also quote from the gospel of Peter Lynch, who said: “Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in all the corrections combined.”
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
For instance, the bulls can argue that momentum is a powerful force in markets, and that bull markets can go on for much longer than we imagine.
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
But the simple interpretation isn't the only one, and it's important to understand all sides of this important valuation debate. That's why @taylortyson.bsky.social and I sought to document the bearish/bullish interpretations of a series of key charts/factoids... www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
bloomberg.com
Are We in a Stock Bubble? This Is the Only Thread You Need
High valuations are supporting equity markets and the economy. Everyone has a view on whether it’s sustainable.
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
Periods of of high valuations tend to augur abysmal real excess returns over the ensuing decades.
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
Are we in a stock market bubble? There’s a raging debate in markets about the sustainability of today’s high stock valuations, and it starts with this chart👇 Shiller P/E has a strong track record of flagging bubbles, and it's flashing red. (link below)
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Reposted by @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social
Bloomberg Opinion @opinion.bloomberg.com · 16/09/2025
There’s a playlist for everything — even Fed Day 🎶 Here’s what to listen to before tomorrow’s expected rate cut:
open.spotify.com
Fed Day Soundtrack
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
"Without immigration... New York would not be New York,” @byjustinfox.bsky.social continues. "The city’s most troubled era in living memory, and possibly ever, came after immigrants fell to just 18.2% of the population in 1970."
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
Folks like Stephen Miller and Matt Walsh have figured out that NYC has a lot of immigrants, and they apparently think that’s somehow bad or un-American. "Their insinuation that this is something new is, however, ridiculous." - @byjustinfox.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
Love this Brian Wilson tribute from Bill Frisell. Music so good it transcends time and genre. www.youtube.com/watch?v=yO2C...
youtube.com
Bill Frisell ~ Surfer Girl
YouTube video by bathoshue
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
Do AI tools deprive young workers of development opportunities? "The young accountant, for instance, might be saving time, but he’s also missing out on the practice of spotting something fishy in raw data," @parmy.bsky.social writes www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
College Grads Are Lab Rats in the Great AI Experiment
Those who can get a job are finding AI has taken their grunt work.
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
We're witnessing a massive near-term expansion of Social Security, and I think it's having an effect on macro data. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Biden’s Parting Gift to Retirees Is Boosting the Economy
A record Social Security expansion is behind the resilience in incomes and spending.
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 23/05/2025
Waller outlined a path to lower rates in the second half (more trade policy certainty), but Trump basically decided not to take it. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Tariff Chaos and Fiscal Ineptitude Are a Bad Economic Recipe
The European Union and Apple aren’t the only victims in this latest round of Trump’s trade war.
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 23/05/2025
The Fiscal Tantrum is about to meet the Tariff Tantrum
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 23/05/2025
The administration is really committed to this vision of Americans screwing in little screws.
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
"Ken Griffin’s Citadel is putting its Florida lobbying muscle behind an effort to allow four-year non-compete clauses and garden leaves in its home state, tightening employers’ hold on well-paid staffers and executives considering defection." www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Citadel Lobbies for Four-Year Non-Competes in Home State of Florida
Ken Griffin’s Citadel is putting its Florida lobbying muscle behind an effort to allow four-year non-compete clauses and garden leaves in its home state, tightening employers’ hold on well-paid staffe...
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
"While the UK’s elimination of many NTBs will help a lot of US exporters, the primary beneficiaries will be UK residents. Now maybe Trump can get the EU to finally carry out the regulatory reform it so desperately needs." - Allison Schrager www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
The Great Productivity Boom Is Taking a Break
US labor productivity fell last quarter for the first time since 2022. The benefits of AI still lie ahead, but we need to get through tariffs first.
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
SEINFELDIAN DEALMAKING: "Watching President Donald Trump reveal in the Oval Office what he described as `a tremendous trade deal' with the UK reminded me of the 1990s sitcom Seinfeld, the show that was literally about nothing." @bobburgess.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Trump Announces a UK Trade ‘Deal’ About Nothing
The White House made no mention of how the framework met the objectives of raising revenue or reshoring manufacturing.
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
The Great Productivity Boom isn't over ... it's taking a break though. Maybe a longish break. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
The Great Productivity Boom Is Taking a Break
US labor productivity fell last quarter for the first time since 2022. The benefits of AI still lie ahead, but we need to get through tariffs first.
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
The US has a gaping fiscal deficit, and no one seems serious about addressing it. It's time to have a conversation about a VAT for America, writes @byjustinfox.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
The Value-Added Tax Should Be Having Its Moment
A national consumption levy could address what fiscally ails the US and finally be politically palatable.
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
“The six-decade track record [Buffett] leaves behind is so astonishing that mere numbers on a page don’t do it justice.” @nirkaissar.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Buffett's Astonishing Track Record in Five Charts
Over six decades of investing, he left peers and the S&P 500 in the dust.
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Reposted by @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social
Tim O’Brien @timobrien.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
Kaissar on Buffett youtube.com/shorts/Is74L...
youtube.com
Five lessons from Warren Buffett: The philosopher king of investing
YouTube video by Bloomberg Opinion
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Reposted by @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social
Bloomberg Opinion @opinion.bloomberg.com · 04/05/2025
Will there ever be a better investor than Warren Buffett? Join @timobrien.bsky.social, @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social and Allison Schrager for a Live Q&A: Monday, 12:15pm EDT bloom.bg/3EO1Bqe
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Reposted by @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social
Bloomberg Opinion @opinion.bloomberg.com · 04/05/2025
The Oracle of Omaha plans to step down at Berkshire Hathaway. But his legacy will echo across markets for generations, says @nirkaissar.bsky.social
bloomberg.com
Warren Buffett, Investing’s Philosopher King
The Oracle of Omaha plans to step down at Berkshire Hathaway. But his legacy will echo across markets for generations.
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 04/05/2025
This Meet the Press interview is a wake-up call for investors who expect Trump to meaningfully walk back tariffs soon. He still deeply believes in this stuff.
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Reposted by @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social
Bloomberg Opinion @opinion.bloomberg.com · 02/05/2025
Here’s what the tomato teaches us about free trade 🍅
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
“The fact that the display of Ugly Americanism provoked quite such a reaction in the famously easygoing Canadians provides a clue as to how other countries are likely to respond to rising tariffs.” @johnauthers.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
bloomberg.com
Canada Escaped a Trump Trap, But Carney's Boxed In
He’ll need to keep everybody happy with higher spending to survive, and forget compromise.
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
“While bureaucracy has evolved into a pejorative term used to describe complicated and pointless administrative procedures, bureaucracy is, at its core, an administrative system and way of organizing.” @bethkowitt.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
What If Bureaucracy Is… Good?
Jamie Dimon, Elon Musk and the rest of the efficiency hive are missing the power of structure and processes.
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Reposted by @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social
Mike McGlone @mikemcglone.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
Has the propensity for US natural gas to drop toward $2 per million BTUs after visiting $4 changed? With crude oil facing rising supply excesses and macroeconomic headwinds, if gas does what's been normal since 2012, deflation would gain traction as the primary energy sector path.
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
How's Trump 2.0 going at 100 days? "The DXY dollar index... has given up almost 10%. This is by some way a record in the five decades since Richard Nixon unpegged the dollar from gold in 1971." - @johnauthers.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
bloomberg.com
Only in America — 100 Days of the Anti-Reagan
How Trump 2.0 is stacking up against other presidents — and even Churchill.
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
"There is a plausible argument that in recent years China has had more influence over US economic policy than the other way around. That’s unfortunate... because the US model was already working pretty well." - Allison Schrager www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
China Is the Wrong Model for the US Economy
The Chinese economic experiment shows that there are diminishing returns to a planned economy.
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
"When a president doesn’t want to follow the law himself, there are supposed to be internal institutional checks to make him do so. One is the Office of Legal Counsel of the Department of Justice." -@noahfeldman www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Here’s Why the President Keeps Ignoring the Law
Trump knows he’s unlikely to face consequences. And he has enablers.
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
"Although banks would prefer the healthier economic environment they envisioned coming into the year, they're in a strong position to wait out the turmoil and stand ready to support the economy... whenever this storm ends." - @conorsen.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
A Recession Really Would Be Different for Banks This Time
Lenders mostly made the economic calamities of the recent past worse, but are now in a position of relative strength as a downturn looms.
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
"[Trump] should get no credit just for not doing something incredibly stupid. But it’s reassuring that the people who advise him seem to have been persuasive that provoking an unnecessary crisis would have been a bad idea." - @johnauthers.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
bloomberg.com
We Need to Talk About Kevin (and Jerome)
Powell survives, there’s an obvious successor, and Trump’s drama was pointless.
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Reposted by @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social
Joe Weisenthal @weisenthal.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
NEW ODD LOTS: What actually happened with the CHIPS Act @tracyalloway.bsky.social and I spoke to @hassankhan.bsky.social who recently left the CHIPS Office, and who graciously shared the ups and downs of his experience. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
podcasts.apple.com
This Is What President Biden's CHIPS Office Actually Did
Podcast Episode · Odd Lots · 04/23/2025 · 44m
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
The Golden Age of Manufacturing is off to a rough start
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 21/04/2025
"...Firing Powell will require either a change in the law governing the Fed’s relationship to the executive, or a big stretch of the concept of “cause.” @johnauthers.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
bloomberg.com
Say ‘You’re Fired’ and Watch What Happens
Sacking Powell now could trigger an epic financial crisis. Best to wait for his term to end.
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 21/04/2025
BILL DUDLEY: There are 4 reasons why the Fed will be patient. 1. Cloudy economic outlook 2. Falling potential GDP 3. Need to prevent inflation expectations from becoming unmoored 4. Attacks on Fed independence / can't appear to cave to DJT www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
The Four Reasons Why the Fed Will Be Patient on Rates
Chair Jerome Powell was right to push back on the market’s expectations of easier monetary policy. The outlook is just too uncertain.
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 21/04/2025
"Of the 140 or so cardinal-electors, about 110 were elevated by Francis. Will they coalesce to choose a pope in Francis’ image?" -Howard Chua-Eoan www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
A Conclave to Test Pope Francis’s Legacy
His death could reset the contest between the modernizing and the traditionalist wings of the financially challenged Roman Catholic Church.
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 19/04/2025
They’re playing Ben Kweller at the mall in Florida. Turns out shopping is better than I remember.
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
"These are uncertain economic times. You don’t have to take my word for it. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index says so:" @byjustinfox.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
BLS economists "found that during the pandemic, total factor productivity growth was higher for industries where the percentage of primarily remote workers grew more." @claudia-sahm.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
DOGE’s Ban on WFH Will Reduce Government Efficiency
The data show that allowing employees to work remotely for some of the time increases productivity and improves retention.
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
Jay should keep standing up for himself.
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
I just hope no one calls the forthcoming price increases “Trumpflation” — not factually accurate. Better to use “price level Trumpjustment.”
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
Powell didn’t pull any punches today. *he shared real talk on tariffs (higher prices, less employment) *not-so-subtly criticized DOGE *delivered a legal defense for Fed independence www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Powell Shows Why Fed Independence Matters in a Turbulent America
After months of avoiding conflict with Trump, the head of the Federal Reserve shared his views on tariffs, spending cuts and threats to central bank autonomy.
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
We can tariff Mexican tomatoes all day long in the name of protecting Florida farmers. Unfortunately, it won’t change the underlying economic incentives in the Sunshine State… condos are a more lucrative use of land than fruit and veggies. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
US Will Impose 21% Tariff on Mexican Tomatoes Starting in July
The US will begin imposing tariffs of more than 20% on most imports of tomatoes from Mexico, citing “unfairly priced” shipments from the country.
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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 14/04/2025
"We have two classes of forecasters: Those who don't know--and those who don't know they don't know." --John Kenneth Galbraith (h/t Howard Marks)
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