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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 04/12/2025

And they can argue that today's P/E multiples aren't directly comparable to 1929 or 1999. There are large structural differences in the economy, and a much different earnings backdrop...

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 04/12/2025

For instance, the bulls can argue that momentum is a powerful force in markets, and that bull markets can go on for much longer than we imagine.

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 04/12/2025

Periods of of high valuations tend to augur abysmal real excess returns over the ensuing decades.

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 04/12/2025

Are we in a stock market bubble? There’s a raging debate in markets about the sustainability of today’s high stock valuations, and it starts with this chart👇 Shiller P/E has a strong track record of flagging bubbles, and it's flashing red. (link below)

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 07/07/2025

Folks like Stephen Miller and Matt Walsh have figured out that NYC has a lot of immigrants, and they apparently think that’s somehow bad or un-American. "Their insinuation that this is something new is, however, ridiculous." - @byjustinfox.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

"These are uncertain economic times. You don’t have to take my word for it. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index says so:" @byjustinfox.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 14/04/2025

"We have two classes of forecasters: Those who don't know--and those who don't know they don't know." --John Kenneth Galbraith (h/t Howard Marks)

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 14/04/2025

The dollar index is now flat on the day. 👏

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 14/04/2025

Forget stock futures, this is what matters 👇 Dollar Extends Drop to Fresh 2025 Lows as Tariff Saga Rolls On

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 09/04/2025

“History tells us that we lean into these periods of uncertainty” — Walmart’s Rainey

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 07/04/2025

His name-calling game is getting worse under pressure. PANICAN?

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 06/04/2025

Lutnick on Face the Nation is still talking about securing critical supply chains for medicine/defense/semiconductors. Fine. But why again are we tariffing textiles and toys?

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 06/04/2025

Bessent on Meet the Press showing he's still on level 2 thinking...

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 04/04/2025

Bessent 2/5: Trump just wants lower 10-year yields "He is not calling for the Fed to lower rates," Bessent said on Fox Business Trump on 4/4: "CUT INTEREST RATES, JEROME, AND STOP PLAYING POLITICS!"

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 02/04/2025

Hard to see a link b/w tariff revenue and prosperity. Peter Navarro's goal of $700b in tariff revenue "would put the US between Senegal and Mongolia" in terms of customs revenue relative to GDP - @byjustinfox.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 02/04/2025

Navarro says tariffs will raise $700b a year, which would be 2.4% of GDP. "Tariff revenue hasn’t surpassed 2% of GDP since the early 1870s, and hasn’t surpassed it on a sustained basis since the 1820s and 1830s." @byjustinfox.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 30/03/2025

Trump is a tariff man. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 28/03/2025

"Extreme angst over trade has had substantially no impact on stocks" @johnauthers.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 26/03/2025

"...nothing could have prepared us for the breadth or intensity of the assault on climate action that Trump has unleashed during his first months back in office." Eye-opening graphics from @markgongloff.bsky.social & Elaine He www.bloomberg.com/opinion/feat...

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 18/03/2025

Feels like ages since I had a reason to look at Value-to-Fear (ratio of S&P 500 forward P/E to VIX), but here it is: It's down from nosebleed levels in December, but it's hardly screaming "the bottom is in" 🤷‍♂️

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 18/03/2025

Mainstream media is the backbone of X's "Community Notes" Eye-opening dataviz column from @davelee.me www.bloomberg.com/opinion/feat...

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 17/03/2025

Chicago Fed’s -0.8% m/m on retail ex-auto would come out to -0.9% adjusting for inflation.

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 17/03/2025

It's Retail Sales Day! Tension today between the Chicago Fed tracker and the Bloomberg economist survey 🤔 Bloomberg survey: +0.6% m/m and +0.3% ex-auto Chicago Fed CARTS: -0.8% m/m ex-auto www.chicagofed.org/research/dat...

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 14/03/2025

US Consumer Sentiment Drops, Price Expectations Soar on Tariffs - BN UMich consumer sentiment by political affiliation 👇

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 14/03/2025

Goldman's Kostin cut his S&P 500 target from 6,500 to 6,200. Here's @johnauthers.bsky.social with more: "The likelihood is that other strategists will follow, and that this will dent sentiment further. And the bottom line remains the direction of the economy." www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 12/03/2025

Tesla today: +7.8% (updated) Tesla year-to-date: -38.5%

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 12/03/2025

Tesla (+7.2%) is the top performing stock on the S&P 500 today. www.businessinsider.com/photo-trumps...

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 11/03/2025

Quits rate up to 2.1% in Jan. from 1.9% in Dec.

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 10/03/2025

Bloomberg Second Measure data show US consumer spending -1.5% m/m in February (seasonally adjusted), the most since 2023. Significant contractions in furniture and home furnishing stores; food and beverage; and air transportation.

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 10/03/2025

Brewers and distillers are having a very solid March, because the only rational response to this policy mix is alcohol? $TAP +3.9% $STZ +8.8% $BF/B +15.9%

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 03/03/2025

Atlanta Fed model, you're bumming me out.

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 03/03/2025

It's the day before tariffs hit, and the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar are hanging tough.

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

👀 Bloomberg Economics looking for a weak NFP of just +65k

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

The goods share of consumption is collapsing again. It briefly spiked during the pandemic hears, but it's now basically back on trend. 🔻

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 25/02/2025

S&P 500 below the 100-DMA on an intraday basis. Only the third time that's happened since late 2023.

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 20/02/2025

The silver-lining in the Trump-Canada trade spat: it may force Canada to "finally confront its structural economic weaknesses." @bobburgess.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 21/01/2025

Excellent John Authers chart of Monday's rollercoaster in currency markets: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

I've noticed a few high earners have moved to Florida recently. This Justin Fox chart isn't the only reason but... www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

Can anyone think of a Trump proposal that could raise prices for American families? Not even one? Starts with "tar"... ends with "iffs." Nothing?

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

December read-through from PPI to PCE is looking quite decent, with the notable exception of airfares. (via Bloomberg's Dominic Carey)

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 13/01/2025

The median respondent in the NY Fed primary dealer survey still ballparks the longer-run fed funds rate at 3.1%. But.... 1/ We live in the short run, not the long run 2/ Surprises in the following factors would change the estimates (probably moving them higher).

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 19/12/2024

For those convinced that we're only getting 2 rate cuts next year, here's a reminder that circumstances can change.

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 18/12/2024

The Fed projections changed a bit today, but the uncertainty around the projections changed a lot. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 18/12/2024

Applovin is the No. 1 performer of the year on the Bloomberg 1000 at +748% And I was surprised to learn that, no, it was not named after the Superbad character

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jonathanjlevin.bsky.social @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social · 17/12/2024

Retail sales looked good but a rare swoon for food services and drinking places. One-off or something more?

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