iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Can we just have a full on debt crisis now please? It's all so tedious tip toeing around pointing at upwards line graphs. It's like watching Lost...mid way through series 7 or something silly, just get to the bloody point already.

090

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

September has broken into multi-year lows for gas demand in Europe. With a warm first half of October on the cards, it could well be the case for the coming month too. Oh, front month NBP is down 6% today.

0124

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Good thread, and nice layering of the elements to tell the story. Just a heads up though, none of this matters with crack spreads at $100bbl, but the pictures are pretty.

151

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

You may have noticed that in the past I have somewhat 'dunked' (as the kids would say) on Bloomberg as they completely misunderstand European gas storage. Well, the tide is turning. They have kind of got it...if you buy LNG year round, and US LNG is running at 18bcf/d, what actually *is* storage?

1131

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I may not have the money to play the markets, but I still have the ability to put my money where my mouth is. Let's enter the gasino.

8110

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Been fairly strong upwards pressure on Brent so far this morning, front month contract up 4% and flirting with $109bbl. As the Americans wake up, unless there is some significant divergence in outlook, $110bbl is in play for today (which would be a 5% rip).

180

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Misread this is he's discussing who should be playing first choice in the Iranian international women's football team.

061

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The Dutch know the score. I've always said how much I like the Dutch.

171

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Friday is risk off / profit taking day in European gas markets. Front month about 6% down. Storage injections seeing some signs of slowing now total UGS is past 70% and targets (especially in Netherlands) have been relaxed. Day time temps staying >20c for most of Europe into October helping too.

080

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

I am simply asking that someone, anyone, tells this guy about refineries and what they do and what's happened to them. Every month he gets trotted out all over the media and starts talking about oil prices as the be all and end all. It's driving me (ahem) up the wall.

390

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

We're now finding out. If only government acted... 5 months ago. Sure consumers would be a bit more prepared for what is going on, and the pain that is here (and potentially more coming).

050

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Brent threatening to break past $108bbl (and trigger a rip day with >5% gain) is definitely going to help those bond markets calm down. Gulp. (European gas also ripping today)

2212

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Last 5 years of US LNG exports by destination, up to July'26. Asia, predominantly India & Japan, plus Egypt driving up too, made Europe step a side for the summer. Just beginning to revert to mean now.

160

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

I love these articles. It gives you feeling of being a modern day Nostradamus because you know *exactly* what is coming.

1182

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

And everyone was worried about potential LNG problems from the US. Was always pretty much no chance of that happening. This however was more visible right from the start; this was always a products crisis, specifically diesel (& jet fuel) and if this does come to pass, then it gets bad in Europe.

240

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

I'm pretty sure this had the effect of driving Brent back over $100bbl (was $97 earlier this morning). Given that a lot of scenario analysis hinges on a resolution driven by Trump's capitulation in the face of being totally spannered at the mid terms (i.e. losing house and congress).

150

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Front month already 15% down since I wrote this. On the back of German storage tenders, some softening of Iranian rhetoric and....oh, you know, just the fact a material proportion of the European gas supply squeeze is fabricated nonsense.

180

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

The body responsible for German gas storage capacity auctions launched the new tender round today (Long-Term Options (LTOs)). It's complicated but broadly the volumes put up don't correspond to the lower starting point of storage Vs last year (traders expected more 'demand') TTF prices fell ~8%.

140

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Some pretty big moves happening in US LNG liquefaction. Corpus Christi forecast adding 500mmcf/d from here (a full 1bn up from last year) Golden Pass adding the same in its forecast, again a full 1bn cf/d up from last year (as it didn't exist then as an exporting entity).

1100

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

If you like your wind constraint cost culture war, well then you've got some good times coming up. Octopus Energy have at least 48 blogs in draft. Dale Vince has 9,863 tweets ready. Someone will shout subsidy, someone else will talk about nuclear, or something. It's all going off, I promise you.

6241

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Someone has done a slightly more professional job in looking at Norwegian gas noms than putting scratchy red lines using MS paint. Definitely a very light shoulder maintenance season, and this is including some unplanned outages too which should clear up shortly. Another thing to note...

160

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Well that's relatively encouraging, and looks to have halted the upside price pressure around the $108/bbl Brent level. For now.

263

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Some fun with the Brent - WTI spread narrowing. Plenty of fundamental reasons around pipelines, constraints etc as to why this would happen, but might even be a run up to the Fed decision tomorrow. One to watch, it's fairly unusual for it to close up, or flip (except going back further in history)

261

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

How it started (a few hours previously) How it's going (go Ukraine, more, more, more)

193

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

That Norwegian maintenance season is...a bit light? I'll confess I haven't looked in detail at what's planned, but it should be in full swing by now based on last year, and we're 50-75 msm3 up on the same point in 2025. I'm just going to assume >€80/MWh does strange things upstream.

130

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Blast from the past from LinkedIn. Did you think gravity storage (excl hydro) was dead? I certainly did. Someone thinks 340 tonnes of concrete moving around for £17* a pop is a great business model... ...or it's a joke I've missed (I hope it is). *I've chucked in a very generous 50p/kWh spread

2130

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

A team of journos, data viz people and writers have worked really hard at this and fair play, I think it is a really good stab at presenting the situation. A few things I would quibble but it's a thumbs up from me - super good presentation too: www.theguardian.com/business/ng-...

theguardian.com

Mapped: the £150bn megaproject that aims to protect Britain from energy shocks

Thousands of miles of new power lines are needed to deliver climate targets and energy security, but bills will rise in the short term and opponents are mobilising

5191

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

That is a big ol' ticking clock, and the ticking is getting a lot louder. Chinese demand flux (The Beijing Swing) is arguably the main reason crude/product markets haven't totally blown up, but it can't stay that way forever. Let's just hope Saudi rerouted supply is still ok....oh wait...

1121

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Graph stolen from @tombent.bsky.social LinkedIn but imagine if AR5 just shut up shop for offshore wind and went full on PV (it was called quite early on no OSW bids were likely), this curve would be a year earlier. Yes, vols would still be comparatively minor, but it was such a wasted opportunity.

130

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

There is nothing hidden about levies. If you want to be cool, and hit some real hidden taxes, talk about seabed leasing costs that are paid by offshore wind generators, but are priced into CfDs - that's a hidden tax, direct transfer from consumer to HMT. www.theguardian.com/money/2026/s...

theguardian.com

UK chancellor urged to remove ‘hidden taxes’ from energy bills

Businesses, charities and other groups sign letter calling for levies to be paid by the government

290

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Turns out there are very small patches of completely made up deal making jawbone territory to explore. Enter the Gulf Cooperation Council! Prices down 2%.

180

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Trump is going to threaten to bomb the bond market again, isn't he?

081

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

As is oil, as is natural gas. It feels a bit like a day of things breaking.

081

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Y2K but for petrol stations. Very funny.

29221

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Since we seem to be kicking off the Iranian crisis properly today, Brent surging to $105bbl, let's go back to the start. I'm just now going to repost all the stuff from 6 months ago and work forwards. We're going to follow the exact same path (just without any way to crater prices ever so often).

191

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Oh god, we're going to get that 'non-triggering' of CfDs from the AR4 offshore wind that's coming to market in 26/27 on £50/MWh, aren't we? The culture wars are back, baby. Unless someone tells me the loop hole was closed... I've forgotten for who it was closed for and who it wasn't.

461

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

NBP front month gas now through the £2/th barrier. LNG buying frenzy to hit mandated European storage targets that are broadly irrelevant. US LNG exporters are partying like it's 2022.

030

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

In hindsight I was far too early in launching the FUCToD stream of analysis. Chinese, American and Japanese (amongst others) SPR splashing kneecapped it, as well as Hormuz rerouting. But it now looks a bit more set in as we go towards winter. 1-3% gains every day now for 8 days straight.

120

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

The word "now" if it is a direct quote is sending me. Since zero hour it's been a bigger problem, pal.

060

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Not great news, but it does feel like a more defendable $100bbl level at the moment than previously. I'm not sure there is much jawboning territory left: the US-Iranian deals have been claimed, the Iranian-Omani deals have been claimed, the 'strait is open' claims have been made. Where else to go?

140

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Brent crude vacillating either side of $100bbl and NBP gas pushing towards £2/th. Not much you can do on oil, but if I were the EU I'd totally bin gas storage targets right now (let spreads do the work if they need to). We're slowly creeping into a 2022-lite situation with distortions all over.

263

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

I should probably add, despite this, prices are still rising. Up to $99bbl for Brent now, 2% increase today. Probably not helped by the news that the US is bombing Iranian tankers this evening by the sounds of things. $100bbl threshold looking like going overnight/tomorrow AM.

060

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Been some punchy numbers coming out from oil traders today on how much oil is getting out through the Strait, the CEO of Vitol thinks about 10mb/d is moving. In fairness, he really would know so not going to challenge it that closely, albeit noting tracking companies are still short of that.

280

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Had a planned power cut from National Grid Distribution today. Letter through the post a few weeks ago, follow up texts and emails etc. Power goes off on the nose at 1pm as planned, back on about 90 seconds later. That's not bad. Somewhere a project manager needs a high five.

1120

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

The European storage jaws are opening again! Coming to eat all the internet takes about Europe running short on gas.

341

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Creeping towards $99bbl this morning with almost 2% added. The frog is looking around the pan and starting to wonder a bit.

070

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

We're going to lobby hard against anything to do with EVs, completely ignore the advances in battery tech and management that now mean EVs beat ICE vehicles on just about every metric going, and then wonder why we're screwed having given the competition a mile wide head start?

4190