iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Yes, although digital-isation is resisted to an extent by populist right anti-CDBC (and anti-fiat in general) types. I think there's a fair size overlap between 'take back control' and 'bring back banknotes' -- plus crypto. Hopefully these constituencies are too small to matter.

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 2h

This is it — there are strong economics and political economy arguments against the euro in a way that there aren’t for most of the other stuff.

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 3h

I’d split Schengen and the euro. The latter really is asking for trouble.

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 3h

Web *facilitator* Gavin!

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 3h

Fighting class war by trying to press the tiny x on the Temu advert.

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 4h

If you get a rising wage share rather than higher inflation, then you have the potential for falling profitability and crisis, as per the 70s. But the general bargaining position of labour makes that look unlikely (although the post-pandemic reshuffle/wage pressure provides some contrary evidence).

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 14h

Historically, various disciplining mechanisms. These days central banks do much of the work.

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 14h

I’m more Kaleckian: as the reserve army of the unemployed shrinks the bargaining power of workers increases, and that isn’t compatible with capitalism.

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 14h

Yeah I kind of get what they are getting at. It’s a search and matching model and once the pool of things to match against gets too small, too much of societies resources are used for the search and matching process. But I don’t think this is the reason why zero unemployment is hard to achieve.

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 19h

Also glad that the zero lower bound isn’t topsy turvy.

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 19h

The Full Employment Rate of Unemployment is spectacular economist brain.

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Henry Mance @henrymance.ft.com · 22h

Israeli minister calls Shabana Mahmood an Islamist, because erm, erm, erm

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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Thinking about the impact of the triple lock on the state pension can be confusing as there's a number of interacting moving parts (earnings, inflation, 2.5%). 🤷‍♂️❓ But here's a visualisation that hopefully might help...1/5

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 23h

someone should set it loose on the CJE back issues and see what it unearths ... or maybe not?

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 23h

game over, lads www.nber.org/system/files...

An LLM Workflow That Reproduces, Improves, and Extends
Published Economics Research ∗
Matthew D. Schwartz1
, Isaiah Andrews2
, and Jesse M. Shapiro3
1Harvard University
2MIT and NBER
3Harvard University and NBER
Wednesday 23rd September, 2026
Abstract
We introduce an open-source workflow that enables an LLM to reproduce, improve, and extend an economics article using the article’s published replication package. First, the workflow attempts to reproduce
the original calculations, checks for discrepancies with published findings, and performs automated sensitivity analysis. Across 4,452 published replication packages for five economics journals, the workflow
flags discrepancies in 3,460 articles or their appendices. Second, the workflow improves the original calculations by using a different implementation or algorithm. In 496 articles, the workflow is able to reduce
a calculation’s computation time, at similar or greater accuracy, by more than a factor of 10. Third, the
workflow extends the original analysis. In 923 articles, the workflow develops an extension that does not
appear in the original article and that is aligned with the original article’s goals and assumptions.

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

the tools that let you extract a single instrument from a complete mix are astonishing

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

that's good reaction. mine too so far. i'm in favour of it!

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

fine with me -- was just a figure of speech!

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

yes, and it was better before they used all that electricity and microphones and that. singing in the church, that was when it were right and proper. now it's noise and you can't hear the words right.

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

kids are good at subverting whatever comes to hand. with something this powerful and malleable, i struggle to see how they won't find a way.

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Yeah let's check back in 2036 and see if anything happened.

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

if anyone spots this i'm going to get ratioed aren't I

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

not dangerous in the sense of crossing roads, just in the danger of missing the wood for the trees

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

i can imagine a mixture of live and AI performance in which the movement/emotion/reaction of the audience is reflected in the music in real time. i suspect it'll take time but if/when someone with real artistic vision picks up the tools, who knows?

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

my test for this stuff is 'what would David Bowie say?' I suspect the answer is a long way from Bluesky conventional wisdom.

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Always dangerous for out of touch old people to dismiss new cultural innovations on the basis that it were different in my day

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

I suspect we are missing out on the details as ever. I can imagine rooms full of tweens spending hours carefully tweaking the parameters on their music generator to produce something they regard as profoundly representative of their collective identity.

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Reminds me of the joke: “the English don’t like music, they just like the sound it makes”.

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

🥳 UK economy grew more than thought in the second quarter. • GDP +0.5% qq versus a previous estimate of +0.4% (same with GDP per head) • Strong business investment growth (see 👇) • Current account balance (exc. precious metals) smallest in 5 years at 1% of GDP thanks to services exports

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

What’s the story with GDP per head — is it a lower growth in heads effect?

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Revised GDP figures: not much change.

• ons.gov.uk
• UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026 (revised up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous estimate), following an unrevised increase of 0.6% in Quarter 1
(Jan to Mar) 2026.
• GDP for 2025 as a whole is estimated to
have increased by 1.2%, revised down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous estimate.

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Shabana Mahmoud remains a substantial obstacle.

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The triple lock is dead, long live the triple lock?

Government says Labour adjusting, not scrapping, triple lock
Government officials have insisted that Andy Burnham is retaining a triple lock on the state pension, but concede that he is planning to adjust its terms from April 2030 if Labour wins the next election.

At present the triple lock means that the state pension is uprated annually by whichever is highest out of three metrics: CPI inflation, 2.5 per cent or average earnings growth that year.

Under the prime minister’s plans, earnings growth would be tracked over time instead of annually — while the other two metrics would remain unchanged.

Helen Miller, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies think-tank, said on X: “I think the ‘tweak’ he mentioned can only imply that old triple lock is gone. New one is similar but without ratchet.”

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Schrodingers triple lock is it

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Will Davies @will-davies.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Priorities (from latest @adamtooze.bsky.social chartbook)

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The most sensible MPC member, by a margin. www.ft.com/content/4aa0...

However, in an environment shaped by large external supply shocks and weak domestic investment, the monetary policy response required to restore price stability leaves the economy more vulnerable to the next shock. Without broader resilience-building, depressed demand and restrictive financial conditions undercut the expansion of supply capacity just when it is needed most.

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Eliot Higgins @eliothiggins.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

If the last 15 years of work on things like MH17 and chemical weapon use tells me anything is you'll need a lot more than mere evidence to change the mind of any denialist.

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

It appears strong but it may turn out not to be.

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I tried fable and yeah it was great at writing really basic code and running a few scripts, but honestly so is sonnet.

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Also there are so many settings and levels. Can you really distinguish 5.0 on ‘extra’ from 5.5 on ‘high’ etc.?

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I don’t think I can tell the difference between 4.8 and 5.5 for the things I use it for. Both some form of dark magic but still not sentient.

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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

I abandoned chrome altogether and switched to Vivaldi. Big improvement.

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