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John Carey

@johncarey.bsky.social
164 followers 65 following 20 posts
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John Carey @johncarey.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
New BrightLineWatch.org report is out and @brendannyhan.bsky.social provides the summary. The full report is here - check it out - brightlinewatch.org/the-persiste...
brightlinewatch.org
The Persistence of Diminished Democracy in a Second Trump Presidency | Bright Line Watch
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John Carey @johncarey.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
New Bright Line Watch report out today, with @brendannyhan.bsky.social Gretchen Helmke Susan Stokes and Jack Andolina. As always, sobering news but worth reading. And as always, thanks to all the academic experts who give time to our surveys.
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Dr. Susan Liebell @drsusanliebell.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
Your ESSENTIAL democracy conversation is my @newbooksnetwork.bsky.social podcast with @johncarey.bsky.social and Gretchen Helmke about the latest Bright Line Watch report, Threats to #democracy and academic freedom after Trump’s second first 100 days. newbooksnetwork.com/constitution...
newbooksnetwork.com
Constitutional Crisis or a Stalemate? John Carey and Gretchen Helmke on the State of American Democracy - New Books Network
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
New podcast on threats to democracy and academic freedom in the US with my Bright Line Watch colleagues @johncarey.bsky.social and Gretchen Helmke
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Dr. Susan Liebell @drsusanliebell.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
FABULOUS conversation with @johncarey.bsky.social and Gretchen Helmke from Bright Line Watch about the April report on American democracy. @newbooksnetwork.bsky.social podcast coming! Meanwhile, check out the newest report and follow @brendannyhan.bsky.social brightlinewatch.org/threats-to-d...
brightlinewatch.org
Threats to democracy and academic freedom after Trump’s second first 100 days | Bright Line Watch
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John Carey @johncarey.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
New report from BrightLineWatch.org with lots on threats to academic freedom as well as updates on the state of American democracy. With @brendannyhan.bsky.social, Gretchen Helmke, and Sue Stokes
brightlinewatch.org
Bright Line Watch
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
Republicans who say they are more aligned with Trump than the GOP are somewhat less likely to rate democracy favorably and more likely to view strongman rule positively. In total, 55% of Trump supporters endorse a strong leader who doesn’t have to bother with Congress.
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
Experts identified Patel's confirmation (now official) and the White House revoking media credentials as the most likely events that pose a significant threat to democracy. After adjusting for pessimism bias, expert forecasts correspond closely with forecasters on the Metaculus prediction platform.
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
Political science and misinformation experts assessed technology-related threats to democracy similarly, though misinformation experts rated Meta's loosened content moderation rules and the revoking of the Biden AI executive order as more threatening to democracy than political science experts.
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
Experts rate Jan. 6 pardons and firings of executive branch officials as the gravest threats to American democracy, followed closely by the roles and influence of Musk/DOGE. These actions were widely approved by Republicans.
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
-Expert ratings of US democracy lowest since we began tracking in 2017 -The percentage of experts who say the US is upholding specific democratic principles dropped by >30 percentage points for six principles (such as non-interference with the press) and declined by 10–20 points on eleven others.
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John Carey @johncarey.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
Re-upping @brendannyhan.bsky.social alert on the new Bright Line Watch report on the first month of Trump 2. New data on attitudes toward democracy, executive aggrandizement, and political violence.
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John Carey @johncarey.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
Read and heed from @stevelevitsky.bsky.social and @lucanway.bsky.social. This is the best overview I've seen, not just of the last few weeks, but of what to expect in the next few years, and how history (ours and, yes, from other countries) can instruct us - www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
foreignaffairs.com
The Path to American Authoritarianism
What comes after democratic breakdown.
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Dannagal Goldthwaite Young @dannagal.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
📣MORE OF THIS! Rare coverage: NOT “strategy framed” (doesnt say how this “is bad for Dems” for example) & not an “opinion” piece. Just straight reporting on Trump violating the Constitution and global experts fears for US democracy. Thanks @brendannyhan.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2025/02/07/b...
nytimes.com
A Constitutional Crisis?
We’re covering an imbalance of power in the government.
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Alexander Howard @digiphile.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
“The president is openly violating the law & Constitution on a daily basis”- @brendannyhan.bsky.social messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/dynamic/rend... “We’re talking about the idea of whether the president has to follow the law at all. I never thought I’d have to say [that] about the US.”
Graph of ratings of American democracy by experts that shows a sharp decline under President Trump and his second term
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Kate McNamara @katemcnamara.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
Right now: Phenomenal conference on the erosion of democracy & the rule of law. Many speakers emphasizing the critical need to "make legible" what is happening in the US today--those who have the freedom to speak out must continue to do so as many are being intimidated into silence.
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John Carey @johncarey.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
@brendannyhan.bsky.social and brand new survey data from Bright Line Watch featured in @nytimes.com The Morning newsletter with German Lopez. We're on new and unfamiliar terrain here.
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John Carey @johncarey.bsky.social · 25/01/2025
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/24/u... This is government by 8 year-old boys
nytimes.com
Interior Department Says Gulf of Mexico Is Now ‘Gulf of America’
Trump also renamed Denali, North America’s tallest peak, as Mount McKinley, despite objections from Alaska’s senators.
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John Carey @johncarey.bsky.social · 15/01/2025
www.nytimes.com/interactive/... Intro course in electoral reform from @leedrutman.bsky.social @jessewegman.bsky.social let’s do this
nytimes.com
Opinion | How to Fix America’s Two-Party Problem
Proportional representation could help restore American democracy.
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John Carey @johncarey.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
Outstanding back and forth on current threats to democracy, pessimism bias among experts, and how to correct for it - featuring @brendannyhan.bsky.social, @smotus.bsky.social, and BrightLineWatch.org data. Catch it (recommending 1.75x speed) at www.niskanencenter.org/threats-to-d...
niskanencenter.org
Threats to democracy in the 2nd Trump administration - Niskanen Center
Trump has promised to remake the federal bureaucracy in his own image and go after his political opponents and the media in his 2nd administration. But there are signals that public protest and civil ...
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
How concerned should we be about backsliding during the second Trump term? Have past concerns come to fruition? Bright Light Watch asked experts to assign probabilities to concrete "bad" events in several past waves and the most recent one. We collaborated on a report summarizing these predictions.
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 06/11/2024
Important, but also another way in which our politics are distorted by the Trump GOP's "heads I win, tails you lose" approach.
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 05/09/2024
(joint with @johncarey.bsky.social, Brian Fogarty, @jasonreifler.bsky.social, and amazing Dartmouth students Elizabeth Chun, Alice Cook, Leyla Jacoby, and Lilian Sweeney)
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John Carey @johncarey.bsky.social · 11/07/2024
Latest from @brightlinewatch just out today, with @brendannyhan.bsky.social @suestokes.bsky.social Gretchen Helmke and Olivier Bergeron-Boutin - check out the Nyhan thread or read the whole report here - brightlinewatch.org/from-convict...
brightlinewatch.org
From Convictions to Elections: American Democracy Amid Legal Turmoil | Bright Line Watch
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Debbie Schildkraut @debbiejsr.bsky.social · 18/03/2024
My public opinion undergrads will be working through this report in a few weeks.
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 12/03/2024
New Bright Line Watch report brightlinewatch.org/courts-campa... Experts also expect Trump to attempt to stay in office beyond 2029, invoke Insurrection Act, and leave NATO. Majorities of Rs approve of first two and 32% would approve him trying to stay in office past January 2029. (7/9)
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 12/03/2024
New Bright Line Watch report brightlinewatch.org/courts-campa... If Trump wins, experts expect him to fire Jack Smith, pardon Jan. 6 insurrectionists, suspend ongoing prosecutions, pardon himself, and open criminal investigations into opponents. Rs overwhelming approve of these actions (6/9)
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 12/03/2024
New Bright Line Watch report brightlinewatch.org/courts-campa... A majority of the public believes Biden would have been prosecuted for his handling of classified documents if he’d been someone else, including 43% of Democrats and 88% of Republicans, but just one-fifth of experts agree (5/9)
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 12/03/2024
New Bright Line Watch report brightlinewatch.org/courts-campa... Fewer than half of Americans think the prosecutions of Trump are politically motivated (Rs ~80%, Ds ~25%). Experts generally don't agree – but more (40%) think the NY hush money case is. (4/9)
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 12/03/2024
New Bright Line Watch report brightlinewatch.org/courts-campa... 54% of the public trusts the Supreme Court to make impartial decisions in Trump-related cases. Confidence higher among Republicans (69%) than among Democrats (44%). (3/9)
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 12/03/2024
New Bright Line Watch report brightlinewatch.org/courts-campa... Democrats and Republicans are polarized over disqualification from ballot and over Trump claim to criminal immunity. Overall support for immunity is lower. Experts regard immunity as a serious threat to democracy. (2/9)
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John Carey @johncarey.bsky.social · 12/03/2024
New Bright Line Watch report with @brendannyhan.bsky.social, Gretchen Helmke, Sue Stokes, and Olivier Bergeron-Boutin. brightlinewatch.org/courts-campa... Nyhan's got the key points ...
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John Carey @johncarey.bsky.social · 12/02/2024
New paper with outstanding colleagues @brian_fogarty @brendannyhan.bsky.social @jasonreifler.bsky.social - Trying to correct misperceptions about election fraud, statements from credible sources and providing basic facts both work. Factual content seems to work better. Evidence from US and Brazil.
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John Carey @johncarey.bsky.social · 04/01/2024
This piece from Tyler Harper. Yes.
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John Carey @johncarey.bsky.social · 13/12/2023
Listen up - Great insights on the state of American democracy from my @dartmouth and @BrightLineWatch colleague, @brendannyhan.bsky.social on the@538politics podast - open.spotify.com/episode/7DKQ...
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 05/10/2023
Trump: Migrants "poisoning the blood of our country" www.snopes.com/news/2023/10... Mussolini: Parliament "poisoning the blood of the nation" tinyurl.com/5n96dexn Hitler: "great cultures of the past perished only b/c the originally creative race died out from blood poisoning" tinyurl.com/bdzn7nfm
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John Carey @johncarey.bsky.social · 06/07/2023
Listen up, electoral reformers - @leedrutman.bsky.social is making more important points - open.substack.com/pub/leedrutman/p/…
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 06/07/2023
30 months ago a violent insurrection inspired by the President sought to overturn a democratic election and prevent the peaceful transfer of power. Its leader is now not only the likely nominee in 2024 but openly endangering the life of a former Democratic president. We can't become numb to this.
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