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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The Mag 7 are responsible for 37% of the S&P’s YTD price gains thru Q3 (4.4 points of an 11.8% rally). The largest contributors have been $NVDA (+1.8 index points) and $AAPL (+1.6 points).

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Tech was the only group to post a positive September return (+5.0%). The bookends for the other 10 sectors were Communications & Health Care at one end (-0.4% & -1.2%, respectively) and Real Estate, Financials & Materials (-7.3%, -7.5%, and -7.6%, respectively) at the other.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

While the S&P 500 underperformed ROW stocks in Q1 (-4.6 vs +2.0 pct), US large caps regained relative momentum in Q2 (+14.9 vs +11.2) and Q3 (+2.0 vs -0.6 pct).

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The Magnificent 7 are back, at least a bit. They contributed 4.4 points to the S&P 500 in Q3, more than the index’s +2.0 pct advance. In September, META’s 27 pct rally alone was worth 0.6 points to the S&P.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Almost half the move in 10-year Treasury yields this year (+114 basis points) came in September (54 basis points) and was almost all driven by higher real (ex-inflation) yields (51 bps).

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

1/2 “It could have been worse” is our summary of global/US equity market performance in September. Last month’s 53 bps spike in 10-yr US Treasury yields, all due to higher real rates, should have caused more harm than a -0.5% drop in the S&P 500 or -2.3% fall in ROW stocks...

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

1/2 August JOLTS data shows the US labor market remains resilient. Job openings have exceeded unemployed workers for 5 straight months and our “Take this job and shove it” indicator – or quits to total separations – remains above its long run average...

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

The S&P has peaked for the year 72% of the time in Q4 since 1980. US equities usually post annual gains, doing so 83% (38 out of 46 years) of the time. The highs for the year tend to come in Q4 because stocks exhibit persistent momentum, a powerful force in all capital markets.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

1/2 The S&P 500 may have peaked for the YTD in August, but it has posted its calendar-year high in that month only once since 1980 (in 1987, a very special case). Most (72%) annual peaks come in Q4, and December alone accounts for over half (54%)...

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

1/2 $NVDA’s announcement that it's increasing its stock repurchase program was clearly meant to quell growing concerns that the AI industry’s circular financing structures are endangering the company’s long run prospects...

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

It's odd to see bonds continue to sell off into quarter end, as one would expect institutional portfolio rebalancing into fixed income. A look at 100-day relative returns for the S&P 500 & AGG shows that trade likely occurred at August month end & is much less influential now.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The VIX closed yesterday at 16.1, well below its long run average of 19.4 despite ever-increasing Treasury yields and other macro concerns. Markets and the US economy have weathered many severe shocks over the last 3 years. A VIX at 16 assumes that resilience will continue.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

One-year US Treasury bills now yield 4.54 pct, a tempting and riskless alternative to stocks. Even still, on a risk-adjusted basis, they need to be 100 – 200 bps higher still before they truly compete for capital with equities.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

1/2 $XOM & $NVDA are the proverbial “Odd Couple” in US stock markets, but a comparison between them also highlights similarities. For example, both trade at a discount to the S&P 500, and both are outperforming YTD due to supply constraints versus demand...

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

1/2 Real (ex-inflation) 10-year Treasury yields are at levels last seen during the 2008 Financial Crisis and their upside momentum entirely explains the recent breakout in nominal rates...

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The St Louis Fed’s Price Pressures Measure currently puts +99 pct odds on headline PCE inflation being +2.5 pct over the next year. Its track record is solid, supporting the FOMC’S decision to hike rates.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Wall Street analysts have increased their Q3 revenue growth estimates for 8 of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors since the start of the quarter, a bullish sign for the upcoming earnings season.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

If pressed, we'd say the recent spike in Treasury yields is the greatest threat to the bull case for stocks. This is the most liquid capital market in the world, & it's turning its back on what is supposed to be the global financial system’s risk-free asset.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

1/3 Two debates have raged over the last few decades. The first is how much US budget deficits truly matter. The second is whether the Fed really has the power to achieve its famous dual mandate...

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

1/2 Global venture capital funding tracks technological opportunity, with higher interest rates unlikely to dent current record funding levels unless there’s a protracted equity bear market...

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Fund investors were large net sellers of US stocks last week and added very little to their long-term bond holdings. Higher interest rates are not (yet) enticing this cohort into extending duration.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Two-/ten-year Treasury yields moved sharply higher yesterday, closing at 4.90 and 5.11 pct, respectively. The level on 2s to watch is 5.0 pct, rarely breached since 2020. For 10-years, real rates matter more and current levels (+2.6 pct) are already troubling.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

New research from the @NewYorkFed shows that Treasury market liquidity is increasingly concentrated at end of day, especially at the close of a calendar month.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

1/2 @statestreet.bsky.social's latest data shows institutional investors’ equity allocations stand at 57.4%, the same as the prior high set in Feb '07, months before a cycle top &not long before the '08 Financial Crisis. Moreover, Dot Com era peaks were 58 – 60%, not far from here...

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

The dollar strengthened by an average of +1.0 pct against baskets of developed and emerging economy currencies last week. The start of a Fed hiking cycle is, thus far, not causing any disruptions in this important market.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

September is living up to its reputation as a tough month for global/US equities, but Q3 to date shows enough momentum across many geographies to keep us bullish going into Q4.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

The FOMC’s new Summary of Economic Projections is a study in (confusing) contrast, with both higher future policy rates and inflation pressures. At least the committee is bullish on the US economy.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

In the wake of yesterday’s Fed rate increase and Chair press conference, 2-yr Treasury yields closed at new 1-year highs and the S&P 500/ROW stocks finished at new 1-month lows.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

1/2 S&P sector correlations to the index are starting to creep higher, albeit from historically low levels and not yet even back to the longer-run average...

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

1/2 WTI crude oil prices have closed above $100/bbl on only 8.5% of days (+1 standard deviation) since 2000, making current levels worrisome. Rate of change also matters. Annual price increases of +100% have augured recession since the 1970s...

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Fed Funds Futures expect a 25 bps rate hike today, and 1-2 more increases of similar size by year end. The FOMC’s new Dot Plot is unlikely to be as hawkish as markets currently discount.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

1/2 The Nasdaq Comp has weathered the US-Iran war better than when Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, the closest historical parallel for an oil shock from a Mideast conflict. That’s due to a resilient US economy and the AI trade’s earnings tailwind...

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

1/2 Internet access speeds vary widely around the world. By one widely cited measure, the US has the fastest average fixed line/mobile rates of all developed/major emerging economies. Germany, Europe’s largest economy has average speeds that are well less than 50% of...

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

"Nicholas Colas doesn’t see 5% Treasury yields as a stock market spoiler. Instead, the co-founder of DataTrek Research sees them as a healthy reset of interest rates that could pave the way for more sustainable growth." @barronsonline @reshmakapadia www.barrons.com/articles/bon...

barrons.com

Why 5% Bond Yields Won’t Sink the Stock Market

Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, says “the market is doing the work of the Fed by slowing the economy and reducing inflation pressures.”

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

1/2 Two-year US Treasuries currently yield +100 basis points more than Fed Funds. When this last happened (2022), it signaled a long series of policy rate increases...

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Despite a lack of forward guidance, Fed Funds Futures put 91% odds of a hike this week. They see roughly equal odds of 3 or 4 hikes over the next year.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

The S&P 500’s forward PE multiple has been declining for almost a year and is now back to its 10-year average (19x) due to higher energy prices and short/long-term rate uncertainty. These issues need some resolution, and the sooner the better.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Markets will never discount an AI apocalypse, just as they entirely ignored the 20th century’s Cold War.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Fund investors have added over $750 bn to their long-term holdings so far this year. They have strongly favored bonds over stocks and continued to do so last week.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

1/2 US large cap Energy is the best performing S&P 500 group YTD (+46% vs +12%), even beating Tech (+30%). We continue to believe Energy should be at least an index weight in diversified stock portfolios...

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Futures currently put 60% odds on a rate hike next week, but this week’s PPI/CPI reports could change that quickly. October’s meeting comes days before US midterms, complicating the Fed’s upcoming decision.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

1/2 The S&P 500 has a valuation problem. Earnings have been strong all year, but the index’s multiple continues to shrink. On the plus side, reasonable expected 1-year returns (+7–8%) no longer require anything other than stable multiples/inline earnings reports...

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

US Federal tax receipts have averaged 17.0% of GDP since 1960, and that’s exactly where they landed last year. Economic growth matters more in terms of closing US budget deficits.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

1/2 Analysts usually cut their current period earnings estimates during a given quarter, but that has not been the case thus far in Q3. Numbers are up +1.2%, but mostly because of Energy (+11.8%) and Tech (+3.0%)...

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

From the November 2022 launch of ChatGPT through May 2025, job postings for software developers fell by 57%. Since that trough, postings have increased by 22% even in the face of agentic coding adoption. That is a hopeful sign for other potentially AI-disrupted workers.

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas will be on @cnbc.com around 4:20pm EST, tune in!

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DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe @datatrekresearch.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

US retail money market fund balances have more than doubled in the 2020s and stand at $3 trillion today. This is not money on the sidelines, but rather capital that now earns a real return.

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