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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 7h

The initial reactions in my meeting—and this is before anyone has had the chance to read the actual document—are all over the map. The two extremes: This self- and group-policing will prove effective, offering greater upside for the industry and investors; and... 1 of 2

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 10h

This is not the first trading session where sovereign bond yields and oil prices have decoupled. In fact, it is happening with greater frequency—a reminder that: • The protracted surge in yields is driven by forces far beyond energy markets; and 1 of 2.

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 12h

Despite weaker-than-anticipated US economic data across both soft and hard metrics, US yields are rising yet again. Specifically The plunge in consumer confidence brought key measures well below consensus forecasts, with the overall index dropping to 81.9 (vs. 89.0 expected),current conditions to...

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 16h

US Treasury yields have stabilized today, at least for now, following the sharp surge across all maturities (WSJ chart below). #economy #markets #bonds #yields

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

As detailed in my latest PS column (link below), "two secular trends will shape finance in the years ahead, one powered from the bottom up by transformative technological innovations, and the other from the top down by geoeconomic influences. Managing each will require major... 1 of 2

project-syndicate.org

The Opposing Forces Reshaping Global Finance

Mohamed A. El-Erian thinks the industry will be transformed by new technologies and the rise of zero-sum economic statecraft.

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The links to this morning's conversation on CNBC's Squawk Box. Thank you, Andrew and Becky, for the interesting conversation. www.cnbc.com/video/2026/0... www.cnbc.com/video/2026/0... @cnbc.com #economy #markets #cnbc

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Echoes of the early 1980s US policy mix? With no signs of meaningful fiscal consolidation, markets are increasingly turning to the Federal Reserve to counter price shocks. (Please see my FT column from a week ago for details.) The longer this dynamic persists, the more likely the overall... 1 of 3

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

While on yields, keep an eye on three areas of G7 fragility: France, Japan and UK. In Japan, the currency remains under pressure even as 10-year JGB yields flirt with 3.10%, their highest level in three decades. Much like US bond developments rarely stay confined to the US, ... 1 of 2

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Reposted by Mohamed A. El-Erian

Project Syndicate @projectsyndicate.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

One should not underestimate the structural and secular challenges facing finance. Notwithstanding digital technologies’ exciting potential to unlock new efficiency gains, companies will face many new uncertainties, @elerianm.bsky.social writes. bit.ly/3VkIgEU

bit.ly

The Opposing Forces Reshaping Global Finance

Mohamed A. El-Erian thinks the industry will be transformed by new technologies and the rise of zero-sum economic statecraft.

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Good morning. In markets, US bond yields are back in focus, with the 10-year hitting 5.22%, its highest level since 2002 -- as Brent oil approaches $110. (CNBC chart below.) #economy #markets #oil #energy #bonds #yields

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Last week, US equities defied gravity and showed remarkable resilience even as many Treasury bond yields surged 5% and the geopolitical landscape remained structurally uncertain. Please have a look at my latest weekly review for details on ... 1 of 2

linkedin.com

The Weekly Look at the Global Economy and Markets

The Context: A Review of Last Week If there was a single defining feature of the past week, it was the remarkable resilience of the equity market amid surging government bond yields. Led by the United...

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

ROW: Long US equities, less so Treasuries: As reported by the FT, "foreign investors made a record $942bn in net purchases of US equities and investment fund shares in the 12 months to July, accelerating a shift in ... 1 of 2.

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Further to the prior post: It is noteworthy that US government bond yields reversed course and are now higher on the day. (CNBC chart below.) #economy #markets #yields #bonds

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The divergence between consumer sentiment and economic activity data is widening: The UMich consumer sentiment index fell to 48.1 in September, driven in part by a jump in one-year inflation expectations to 4.6% (up from 4.0% in August). Five-to-ten-year inflation ... 1 of 2

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

This chart from John Authers always-insightful note reminds us that the (mainly but not exclusively) US-led yield surge is now a generalized phenomenon, especially when it comes to reaching multi-decade levels. #economy #bonds #markets #yields

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

From The Economist's article on housing and interest rates: "Three factors suggest that the rich world’s housing market is vulnerable to higher rates: mortgages, household finances and supply." #economy #housing #markets #yields #bonds #mortgages @economist.com

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

It wouldn't surprise me if the output of the Federal Reserve’s 5 task forces, along with the broader reforms led by Kevin Warsh, becomes a global blueprint for central banking. In particular, Chair Warsh’s pushback against what “forward guidance” has devolved into is already gaining traction abroad

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Flying under many radars for now, but probably not for long: The Japanese Yen has weakened back to 159 per U.S. dollar (CNBC chart), approaching the established FX intervention zone. This matters far beyond Japan for a key reason right now:... 1 of 2

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

With yields edging higher again this morning, the entire US Treasury yield curve from 5- to 30-year maturities is now trading above 5%. (Image from the FT below.) #economy #markets #bonds #yields

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

This photo, which just popped up on my phone, remains one of my absolute favorites: walking my young daughter to school -- something that, prior to a major career course correction in 2014, I simply didn't do enough. #daughter #fatherdaughterlove #fatherdaughter

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Three of my takeaways from this Financial Times reporting (attached) on record bond issuance by emerging economies: It adds at the margin to pressures on global bond yields, even though the overall issuance volumes remain significantly smaller than those coming from advanced economies... 1 of 3

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

This comes from The Economist's article on US-China relations, which it characterizes as having reached a '"strategic stalemate." #economy #markets #china

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Why the Treasury Yield Surge Shouldn't Be as Big a Surprise as it is It is striking how many market participants have been surprised by the recent surge in US yields. The fundamental drivers have been evident for some time: Borrowing plans for major issuers, such as the government and large.. 1 of 3

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

The sharp rise in Treasury yields—including 11 basis points for the benchmark 10-year (Bloomberg chart and table)—is being driven by domestic factors (data confirming accelerating US economic activity), and to a much lesser extent, externals (higher oil prices). It's pulling yields higher worldwide.

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

From the FT: "Surging government bond yields are a “major concern” to countries’ public finances given the mounting share of spending being consumed by debt interest, the OECD said on Wednesday." This warning comes as the OECD raises its inflation forecasts and warns about interest rate pressures.

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Many of you have heard me say for a while now that earnings from tech companies in particular have acted as a powerful shield for stock markets, deflecting what has been a notable series of external shocks. This chart from John Authers illustrates the point. #economy #markets #tech #investing

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

From the Bloomberg article on "SoftBank Offers Record Yields on Jumbo Junk Bonds in AI Push:" "The flood of AI funding in global financial markets, however, has made some bond investors uneasy." #economy #markets #tech #bonds

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

As the national average price of diesel in the United States sets a new record high of $6.53 per gallon... #energy #diesel #markets #economy

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Further signs of UK fiscal pressure ahead of next month’s budget: Driven partly by higher debt servicing costs and inflation, UK public sector borrowing hit £18.3 billion in August. This came in above the £15.5 billion consensus forecast and widened the ... 1 of 2

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Flying below the radar: The US 2s-30s yield curve is now trading just below 55 bps—halving in just a month or so. More to follow. #economy #markets #bonds #yields

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Look for four competing visions for the global order at UNGA this week: A modified, US-led model adapted for current geopolitical conditions; A Chinese-asserted alternative positioning Beijing as the primary guardian of multilateralism; ... 1 of 2

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Via the Financial Times, my thoughts on why central bank rate hikes should not be “the only game in town” when it comes to addressing today's inflation challenge. The real remedies lie not with central banks but with ... 1 of 2

ft.com

Rate rises should not be ‘the only game in town’

Monetary policy is not the best response tool for today’s economic and financial challenges

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Among the notable price moves in markets this morning: the multi-day decline in oil prices extends, with Brent crude joining WTI below $100 a barrel. (CNBC data below.) #economy #oil #energy #markets

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Despite another day of lower international crude oil prices, refined product markets continue to move in the opposite direction. According to AAA data (below), diesel has pushed above $6.50 a gallon, while regular gas is near $4.50. Also and of note, refined products are... 1 of 2

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

In this FT column, the leaders of Brazil, Canada, the European Union, and Kenya propose forming the "'Partners for Multilateralism' ... to create a flexible, open framework for countries from different regions and political traditions that are willing to work across divides, to build coalitions...

ft.com

Multilateralism is not idealism, it is a necessity

We need to strengthen our system of co-operation, not replace it

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Jets lose in OT.... We were all hoping for a new normal for our beloved Jets, including starting the season 2-0 for the first time since 2015. Instead, we’re right back to the old normal. This time around, we blew a 10 point lead in the fourth quarter ... 1 of 2

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Despite a calming Fed meeting last week, global markets enter the new week with a rebound in sovereign yields and rising energy pressures. We also have high-stakes diplomacy at the Trump-Xi summit on the sidelines of UNGA, alongside ... 1 of 2

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

This chart on Europe from the Financial Times is a general reminder that, in exhibiting impressive resilience to the energy shock, the global economy has run down its physical inventory. #economy #oil #energy #markets @financialtimes.com

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Thank you to Richard Quest and Stuart Varney for having me on their shows today. #economy #markets

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

From Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman's speech today, outlining "the initial findings of the independent review of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)." Many will view this as yet another addition to an already long list of institutional missteps by the Powell-led Fed. #federalreserve

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

While on yields, this chart from The Wall Street Journal on US mortgages. #economy #markets #yields #mortgages @wsj.com

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Government bond yields are on the move again: The US 10-year Treasury is back at 5% and the 30-year is above 5.30% (Bloomberg table below.) #bonds #economy #markets #yields

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

In the continuation of the masterclass in corporate succession: In a characteristically humble and well-written letter to Berkshire shareholders (below), Warren Buffett reflects on his tenure, passes the Chair role to Howard Buffett, and reaffirms his confidence in Greg Abel. #economy #warrenbuffett

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

While crude oil prices have fallen for a third consecutive day, refined products continue to climb, with US diesel at a record high of $6.45 (AAA table). Meanwhile, media reports indicate that Aramco, the Saudi oil giant, has informed European refiners to expect no crude deliveries in October. #oil

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Good morning The signaling accompanying the Bank of Japan's rate hike sent the Yen weaker: In a widely expected move, Japan’s central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points to their highest level since 1995. Yet, as the signaling regarding future... 1 of 2

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Posted earlier: Depending on where you look, the current U.S. economy can be characterized in one of three ways: 1. An economy in equilibrium, anchored by forces of mean reversion. 2. An increasingly unstable equilibrium, driven by diminishing financial and physical buffers.... 1 of 2

nytimes.com

Opinion | There Are Three Paths for the Economy. Only One Is Good.

You may not be able to pick just one.

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Thank you, Leslie Picker, for the interesting conversation on CNBC's Closing Bell. www.cnbc.com/video/2026/0... #economy #markets @cnbc.com #FederalReserve

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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Despite widespread analyst commentary that the Federal Reserve addressed inflation concerns and passed a “credibility test,”longer-term yields have remained relatively range-bound. It isn't because those factors are unimportant, but because they haven't been the primary drivers pushing yields higher

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