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Ian Harnett

@ianrharnett.bsky.social
677 followers 219 following 88 posts

Veteran macro-strategist. Co-founder Absolute Strategy Research - all views are my own - not those of ASR. Any likes/reposts do not mean endorsement.

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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
The @financialtimes.com just published this article looking at positive takeaways from higher Bond yields www.ft.com/content/96e0...
ft.com
Four potential positives from higher bond yields
The sharp rise in borrowing costs has raised justified alarm but there are benefits too
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
@drodrik.bsky.social and @teorth.bsky.social thank you for sharing this important contribution to the debate about the interaction of A.I. and knowledge based research activities. As a research based business - these are things ASR cares deeply about. Please take time to read the full article. Ian H
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Many thanks to @johnauthers.bsky.social for including some of the Absolute Strategy Research Ltd analysis on US inflation drivers in his @opinion.bloomberg.com article on the risks in the Bond markets. If you would like to know more about the ASR views visit our website and ask for a free trial
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Many thanks to @nixonsimon.bsky.social for including the ASR Climate Macro Strategy analysis in this excellent piece for the @financialtimes.com. Drop me a line if you would like to know more about this excellent climate strategy analysis work
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
The yen has not been cheaper than today since 1965 (in real effective exchange rate terms). Maybe this was why the US Treasury was so keen to intervene! In our note to the ASR clients last week we asked “where would you build your new robotics factory?
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Did you know that large Hedge Fund leverage reached 24x at the end of Q1? Even better they were all invested in the same hyperscalers trade. You can read more in the @katie0martin.ft.com article here www.ft.com/content/4c75.... Drop me a line if you would like to know more about ASR research
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Many thanks to @nixonsimon.bsky.social for referencing the ASR article that I penned for the Markets Insight column of the @financialtimes.com last week… on what some of the key risks for AI stocks are…and they may not be what you think. Read what Simon says -always excellent- and my FT piece. Ian H
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
As ever, @jessefelder.com gets the key point from the article I wrote for the FT. Watch the cashflows of A.I. users, not the hyperscalers themselves. Many thanks for reposting to your community! Ian H
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
@tonytassell.bsky.social many thanks for the kind words… but every article is immensely improved by your wonderfully sympathetic editing… thanks again! Ian H
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Many thanks to @tonytassell.bsky.social and the @financialtimes.com for publishing this ASR piece on what are the key issues ahead of the end of any bull market. Spoiler alert… while there are lots of worrying indicators, until policy tightens significantly, these risks will remain just risks… Ian H
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
Many thanks to Katie Marton and the Financial Times ‘Unhedged’ team in drawing on the Absolute Strategy Research work on bull market peaks for their latest article. It is clear that we are seeing more discussion of this subject. Great that we are helping our clients and others explore the issue.
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 10/05/2026
I am very much looking forward to joining @lisaabramowiczx.bsky.social and Jonathan Ferro on #BloombergSurveillance tomorrow morning at 6.30am. I will be sharing some of the ASR views on Oil, Stagflation Risks and the longevity of this bull market.
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
Thinking about increased stagflation risks after the weekend? You are not alone... last week we wrote a piece highlighting the impact of stagflation on Equity valuations, leadership and financial stability... if you want to know more, visit www.absolute-strategy.com/blog and ask for a research trial
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
It was my pleasure to join Ian King on CNBC's European Early Edition this morning to discuss the potential impact of the US Tariff SCOTUS ruling and the Section 122 tariffs of 15% that the US Administration responded with. www.cnbc.com/video/2026/0...
cnbc.com
Tariffs remain central part of U.S. policy: Absolute Strategy Research
Ian Harnett of Absolute Strategy Research discusses the U.S. Supreme Court ruling on President Trump's tariffs.
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
Many thanks to @tonytassell.bsky.social and the @financialtimes.com for publishing my Insight article today on how “America’s risky bet on hydrocarbons might hurt it in the AI race”. It would be great to have your views on our arguments. www.ft.com/content/73e0...
ft.com
America’s risky bet on hydrocarbons might hurt it in the AI race
US strategy could be costly in terms of higher electricity prices, increased water stress and potential food insecurity
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 14/12/2025
This could possibly be the most important chart to watch in 2026… While the EIA forecasts can (and do) change, if this projection was even half right, we would have a very different set of macro and market outcomes to those contained in many mainstream 2026 forecast documents.
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 09/11/2025
Just in case you thought it was only US Equities that are expensive. This is the dispersion of Sector Price / Book ratios for World ex US sectors…
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 09/11/2025
While the US market may be supported by forward EPS valuations, the dispersion of 'fundamental' valuation metrics like Price/ Cash is extreme. As we noted in our research report for @asr_london clients recently, the Price/Cash dispersion has tended to peak around market reversals
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
Many thanks to @robarmstrong.bsky.social at the @financialtimes.com for highlighting our ASR research note, "No Smoke Without Fire" where we explored the recent stress for BDCs/Asset Managers - and noted the latter moving into a 'bear market'. This was in the context of the Blackstone results
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
Many thanks to @tonytassell.bsky.social at the @financialtimes.com Times for asking me to share my thoughts on why I believe the AI capex boom signals the start of the end-game for this phase of the AI bubble. www.ft.com/content/c7b9...
ft.com
The AI capex endgame is approaching
The rapid building of excess capacity both extends bubbles and ultimately bursts them
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
Many thanks to @robarmstrong.bsky.social for including this ASR chart and comment in his recent Unhedged column for the @financialtimes.com. We showed how the US market is not just over-valued but also over-owned
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 27/09/2025
The AI capex boom is the final signal that we are in the end-game phase lf the AI ‘bubble’ We recently wrote a paper for Absolute Strategy Research Ltd clients highlighting how the capex boom in AI is the last of five classic signals that are typically seen as we reach the final stages of bubbles.
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
Many thanks to Tony Tassell at the Financial Times for publishing my article on lessons from the 1920s and ‘30s on tariffs and markets. It may be coincidence, but profits only fell much as they did in in the GFC were around the tariffs of the early 1920s and early 1930s. www.ft.com/content/ea29...
ft.com
Lessons from the 1920s and 30s on tariffs and markets
Investors today might be too complacent about the risks to earnings from slower growth and higher inflation
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 31/05/2025
Tony has flagged the provisions in the new Budget Bill that move us closer to a world where capital is explicitly weaponised… not a surprise… but definitely unwelcome for markets. Kind of Tony to repost the FT insight article that we wrote warning of the risk of just such a development.
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 04/04/2025
Many thanks to the FT for inviting me to share my views on the risks to global capital flows from the #liberationday tariffs www.ft.com/content/c564...
ft.com
How ‘weaponised trade’ could lead to ‘weaponised capital’
As international structures that promoted free trade are unwound, there is a rising risk of a return to capital controls
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 31/03/2025
Many thanks to Jonathan Shapiro at the Australian Financial Review for his coverage of the ASR views on the potential impact and importance of the U.S. Department of the Treasury Sovereign Wealth Fund. This will have an impact, not only in the US, but also for Global investors.
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 09/03/2025
Who owns US Equities? As the US market comes under pressure, it is worth looking at how the ownership of the US market has changed in the last 75 years. This has shifted from a market owned mainly by US households, to one where institutions and foreign investors have key holdings.
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 09/03/2025
Very kind of @nixonsimon.bsky.social to flag my recent article on the #USsovereignwealthfund in his latest #wealthofnations article. We have suggested to @asr_london clients that investors need to take the US SWF more seriously. If you wand to read the article visit www.absolute-strategy.com/blog
absolute-strategy.com
News and Insights | ASR Ltd.
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
Great to be in Washington DC with my Absolute Strategy Research Ltd co-founder at the start of a week seeing key clients and prospects to talk about the actions that we might expect from the #treasury and the #Fed and what these might mean for #globaleconomics and #assetallocation
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 15/02/2025
As the #munichsecurityconference continues, it's worth reflecting on the scale of Global military spending. This chart was included as one of the '5 Big Themes for 2025' that we identified in our recent 'Controversies, Conviction and Context' note for Absolute Strategy Research Ltd clients.
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
At Absolute Strategy Research we love to provide our clients with context for their investments. Given the Bank of England rate decision yesterday, our Chart of the Day this morning showed 100 years of UK policy rates... highlighting how this rate cycle has peaked close to levels seen pre-GFC period
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 05/02/2025
How long can policy uncertainty remain elevated and risk premia remain subdued? My Chart of the Day at the start of the week (available to Absolute Strategy Research clients from their sales person) linked Policy Uncertainty and the ASR Composite Equity Risk Premium....Not terribly encouraging!
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
In the aftermath of the pandemic we flagged how UK labour shortages back at 1970s levels risked a sustained inflation shock. While those labour shortages have eased, the latest CBI survey shows labour shortages rising again - this once could again become a headwind to UK inflation and BoE rate cuts.
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
Earlier this week - as DeekSeek looked to disrupt the US Equity rally - my #ChartoftheDay, available for ASR clients via their salesperson, was this chart putting the current 'bubble' in context...We concluded "Of course, this time will be different 😉"
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
It was a great honour to be invited by Suzanne Wooley at @bloomberg.com to write 'How to Invest $10,000 Right Now'... In this I discuss how "increased energy [is a] critical part of the Bessent 'three arrows.'" Take a look (*paywall) and see if you agree... Ian H www.bloomberg.com/features/how...
bloomberg.com
Where to Invest $10,000 Right Now
Investment experts highlight opportunities in consumer staples, defense, European luxury brands and more.
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 26/01/2025
Over the last 100 years, 10yr returns for US Equities vs Bonds have only been higher once before, toward the end of the 1950s. A decade of QE has helped drive this divergence in returns - the key question is how long this can be sustained as rates normalize in the next decade?
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 26/01/2025
100 years of Bond and Equity 10yr returns shows what a decade of QE has done. The way Bond returns have been crushed in the last decade has received a lot of attention, but the scale of the gains for Equities has also been extreme, as this Absolute Strategy Research chart shows
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 26/01/2025
Just when you thought that talk of Animal Spirits couldn't get any stronger.... The Absolute Strategy Research 'animal spirits' indicator is now 6x above its average level. Is this a sign of bull-market strength, or an overvalued market relying on qualitative, not quantitative measures?
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
Sterling, Not Gilts, Define UK Crises! In a recent note to ASR clients, we looked at the drivers of recent rise in Gilt yields. Long dated yields have been driven by real yields (reflecting supply worries), but the front-end rise reflects increased inflation risk, and BoE dovishness. 1/3
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
Public service announcement: Absolute Strategy Research is delighted to welcome Ebrahim Rahbari to ASR as Head of Rates Strategy and Head of Research, US. Ebrahim will be based in New York to strengthen our global client coverage. Great to have another top-ranked analyst on our award winning team.
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 03/01/2025
How much of a Global recovery are you expecting for 2025? This Absolute Strategy Research chart shows how Global non-Tech Cyclicals have outperformed more Defensive sectors in the last three months...it may be time to review if you are too pessimistic on some of the more defensive sectors.
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 22/12/2024
Many thanks Simon Nixon for including the Absolute Strategy Research Ltd chart on Animal Spirits in his substack ‘Wealth of Nations’. If you have not seen his work before, Simon always has excellent insights on the interaction between markets and geopolitics.
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
There is a lot of talk about 'Animal Sprits' this Holiday Season... At Absolute Strategy Research we love to share charts with our investor clients that give them market context. This one shows how commentators have never been more reliant on Animal Spirits to justify higher markets! 1/3
News mentions of 'Animal Spirits' are at record levels seen in the last 23 years - well above the previous peak seen in the aftermath of President Trump's tax package of 2017
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Many thanks to all on @bsky.app who have followed me already... I look forward to suggestions of #starterpacks that I should be using to get connected to everyone here who is passionate and curious about the interaction between macro and markets! After 40 years I am still learning every day! Ian H
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Many thanks to @tonytassell.bsky.social for highlighting this to the Bluesky economics and markets community...
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Ian Harnett @ianrharnett.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Hi...This is my first post on Bluesky. Thanks to @tonytassell.bsky.social at the @financialtimes.com for publishing my article highlighting how recent election results suggest inflation targeting has failed electorates...maybe central banks should revisit their mandates? www.ft.com/content/fb32...
ft.com
It’s prices stupid: how inflation targeting has failed electorates
It may well be time for governments and central banks to revisit their monetary policy mandates.
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