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Mikhail Komin

@kominmo.bsky.social
96 followers 46 following 125 posts

Political analyst, Russia expert (elites, bureaucracy, government data, policy-making process). Editor at Novaya Gazeta Europe; Research Fellow at CEPA

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Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
My new text for CEPA on how the Kremlin overreacts to recent anti-war dissent. Yabloko is likely to lose all its regional seats, ending its right to run without signatures, threatening its survival and pushing opposition inside Russia further underground. cepa.org/article/kre...
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Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Putin’s call for a “new elite” of war veterans is often dismissed as mere PR. My brief for @ecfr shows a more complex picture. Kremlin builds a recruitment pool to gradually bring veterans into bureaucracy as a distinct group like technocrats or siloviki. ecfr.eu/publication... 1/
ecfr.eu
Booted, then suited: Veterans and the making of Putin’s new proto-elite – European Council on Foreign Relations
The Kremlin is promoting Ukraine war veterans--cultivating a proto-elite who could reinforce Russia’s militarised course.
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Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
A colleague from Western Academia recently asked me where to follow Russian electoral procedures after Golos was forced to close. I sent him a few links, then thought the list might be useful more widely, espessially in the light of the upcoming State Duma election. golosinfo.org/en/articles... 1/
golosinfo.org
Statement on the termination of activities of the movement “Golos”
The All-Russian Movement for the Defence of Voters' Rights “Golos” has stopped its activities
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Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
For "Strana i Mir", a Sakharov Center project, I discuss three tensions shaping Russia’s new political season: civilian managers and siloviki, pressure on economic technocrats, and the growing difficulty of keeping wartime economic problems depoliticized. www.youtube.com/watch?v=c10...
youtube.com
Михаил Комин. Кризисный сезон для Путина
В рамках программы «Ждите ответа» ведущая YouTube-канала «Страна и ...
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Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
The recent Yabloko court queues were a reminder: young Russians remain far more anti-war than older cohorts. In the new CEPA piece, we look at how this dissent now survives online: in coded jokes, memes, and irony directed at an aging regime and its aging ruler. cepa.org/article/the...
cepa.org
The Coded Resistance of Russian Youth
Gen Z shuns Putin’s war and quietly mourns lost freedoms and vanished opportunities amid Russia's repressive authoritarian regime.
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Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
In the recent interview for @CEIP_Politika, I discuss Yabloko’s disqualification and a broader pattern behind it: the growing conflict between civilian political managers vs siloviki vertical over how tightly Russian wartime politics should be controlled. www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukN...
youtube.com
Что говорит ситуация с «Яблоком» о настроениях в обществе и элитах? Михаил Комин
Михаил Комин, политолог, исследователь в Центре анализа европейской...
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Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Recent arrests around the Rotenberg network look like a Shoigu-style attack on a once-untouchable elite group in Ru.It signals that failures in war-related tasks now raise risks even inside Putin’s inner circle.My new piece for Carnegie Politika on this new rules carnegieendowment.org/russia-eura...
carnegieendowment.org
Are Russia’s Influential Rotenberg Brothers Headed for a Fall?
The security forces are targeting Arkady and Boris Rotenberg’s patronage network—and in Putin’s Russia, it’s extremely hard to stop a purge once it’s under way.
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Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
This chart is based on public data of letter-writing evenings for Ru political prisoners. In 2022-2023 in-country events outnumbered those abroad; later many shifted into more discreet formats, resembling the dissident kitchen. The figure shows one of the finding from our @cepa report -- 1/
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Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
The Kremlin spent years building a sovereign internet. Yet today, 35-40% of Russians still bypass censorship and retain access to blocked media and platforms. This estimate is more robust than many assume,as I show in my new data-driven piece for CEPA 1/ cepa.org/article/put...
cepa.org
Putin Is Losing the Fight to Keep Russians Offline
Millions of Russians are bypassing Vladimir Putin’s attempts to block access to the internet, and his regime is struggling to keep up.
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Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 24/05/2026
Recently commented for the NYT on Putin’s push to promote war veterans into bureaucracy. This isn't yet a mass takeover: the Kremlin still worries about manageability. But veterans who pass test role,even drunkard Shuvayev, the new Belgorod governor, can get integrated www.nytimes.com/2026/05/22/...
nytimes.com
From General to Governor: Putin Pushes a ‘New Elite’ of War Veterans
The popular leader of a region bordering Ukraine is replaced by a military commander as President Vladimir V. Putin looks to reward those who fought in his war.
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Reposted by Mikhail Komin
Brian Taylor @bdtaylor-su.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
A few thoughts on the @istories.bsky.social story about "a report by an intelligence service of a European Union country on the real situation in the Kremlin and the condition of Vladimir Putin." 🧵 1) The basic idea that Putin is more concerned about his personal security seems plausible. 1/10
storage.googleapis.com
Vladimir Putin fears an assassination attempt and a coup, tensions among security services are rising, an EU intelligence agency says
Независимое медиа. Расследования, репортажи, интервью и истории о том, что важно
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Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
My last comment for the NYT. The Kremlin pushes toward a sovereign internet, but the move against TG exposed unexpected public and intra-elite resistance. showing that many in society and bureaucracy are not ready to move as fast as Putin and siloviki want www.nytimes.com/2026/04/28/...
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Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
1/ Two pieces out this week at @cepa.org taking stock of two years under Andrey Belousov at Russian MoD. The structural changes are clearer now than they looked in real time. My text is a contunuation of previous observations, but now with the full data and visualization. cepa.org/article/put...
cepa.org
Putin Demands More Efficient Military Corruption
Changes at the top of the defense hierarchy reveal old-style graft and pressure to raise military spending efficiency.
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Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
A new Cedar analysis maps wave of wartime nationalisation in RU. Its findings reinforce point I’ve argued for some time: this process reflects the heterogeneity of Russian elites, and as a result its limited controllability, including from the Kremlin. 1/ cedarus.io/research/as...
cedarus.io
Cedar – Russia
An independent think-tank aimed at providing data about Russia to the academic and expert community.
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Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Joined the podcast by Meduza on purges in Russian MoD so far. Discussed how it all started, why cases tend to unfold in waves, what it means for Shoigu — and what the reshuffle under Belousov tells us about changes inside the Russian war machine. In Russian meduza.io/video/2026/...
meduza.io
Шойгу не смог остановить разгром своего клана. Чистка в Минобороны затронула десятки человек, сразу четыре бывших замминистра арестованы Могут ли посадить самого Шойгу? — Meduza
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Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
UPD on Tsalikov case over the last 36 hours. Detaining Shoigu’s longtime No.2 required a rare symphony of 3 security agencies working together — usually a sign the move was cleared at the very top. And yet all this only resulted in his house arrest. 1/ www.kommersant.ru/doc/8496117
kommersant.ru
Руслана Цаликова приняли по-домашнему
Экс-замминистра обороны проверяется на причастность к новым коррупционным преступлениям
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Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Today Russian siloviki detained Ruslan Tsalikov, Sergei Shoigu’s longtime №2 across all his previous positions: Min. of Emergencies, Moscow reg, MoD. Given how MoD purges have unfolded, it looks like the penultimate stop in the chain. The next step can be Shoigu himself www.kommersant.ru/doc/8480988
kommersant.ru
Задержан бывший заместитель министра обороны Руслан Цаликов
Подробнее на сайте
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Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Today Moscow has announced the restructuring of the Gulag Museum into a “museum of the victims of genocide among Soviet people”, now headed by a war veteran. It perfectly illustrates the last years developments in the Kremlin toolkit for managing urban dissent. 1/ www.mos.ru/news/item/1...
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Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
Politico published a story with my contribution on the power transfer in Chechnya if Kadyrov were to die. The timing is telling: amid fresh news about the car crash with Kadyrov's son, whom he is grooming as his heir in opposite to Kremlin's candidate. www.politico.eu/article/ram...
politico.eu
Ramzan Kadyrov is on death watch. Again.
Persistent reports about the Chechen leader’s health are resurfacing at a moment of vulnerability for the Kremlin.
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Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
A new piece for @euobserver.com an Novaya Gazeta Europe: we continue tracking, via voting behaviour, how the pro-Kremlin bloc in the EP looks. Bad news: it has nearly doubled since 2024. Good news: it’s still too small to shift outcomes and consist of the newcomers euobserver.com/news/ard633...
euobserver.com
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Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
My comment for Tagesspiegel looks at Sergei Lavrov’s current position within Russia’s foreign-policy system. He has not been removed — but his centrality is being diluted as Moscow increasingly decentralises the implementation of foreign-policy decisions. www.tagesspiegel.de/internationa...
tagesspiegel.de
Spekulationen über Lawrows Machtverlust: Will Putin seinen langjährigen Außenminister loswerden?
Jüngst fehlte Sergej Lawrow bei wichtigen Treffen. Es gab Gerüchte, Russlands Chefdiplomat büße an Einfluss ein. Wie es um sein Verhältnis zu Wladimir Putin bestellt ist.
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Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
1/ Together with @Veer_Laine, I’ve contributed a chapter on Russia to the new Routledge volume Competing Visions for International Order (2025). It explores how Moscow imagines the world as a “sovereign state-civilisation” — a moral counterpole to the West www.routledge.com/Competing-V...
routledge.com
Competing Visions for International Order: Challenges for a Shared Direction in an Age of Global Contestation
This book explores the international ordering visions of key global and regional powers in the international system from 2014 onwards. Using a fourfold analytical framework based on the distributional, normative, institutional, and temporal dimensions of the visions propagated by the relevant political elites in the states/actors in question, the book addresses the ultimate question in international relations for the coming decades: To what extent can the visions pushed forward by the leading po
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Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 26/10/2025
1/ The Kremlin’s hierarchy is shifting. The new "The Economist" story with my small contibutions explains how the war in Ukraine has elevated a new class — ultra-conservatives, relatives, and "svp" veterans — while sidelining old groups and technocrats in particular www.economist.com/1843/2025/1...
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Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
1/ Russia is quietly preparing a new way to send more men to war — without announcing another mobilization. A new, announced today amendment allows special reservists to be mobilized without Martial law and been sent to fight abroad www.rbc.ru/politics/13...
rbc.ru
В правительстве одобрили идею Минобороны о спецсборах для резервистов
Правительственная комиссия по законопроектной деятельности поддержала идею Минобороны разрешить использовать резервистов в мирное время. Они смогут решать задачи за пределами России, отметил генерал
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Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
1/ If you’re puzzled by the recent flurry of asset seizures from Russia’s Prosecutor General’s Office — and why Igor Krasnov, on his way to a “promotion,” kept signing new expropriation suits — I unpack it in the recently published commentary for Carnegie carnegieendowment.org/russia-eura...
carnegieendowment.org
Изъятия на посошок. Как замена генпрокурора перебалансировала силовой блок
Похоже, президент в последний момент решил не вознаграждать за эффективность принесшего бюджету триллионы рублей Краснова, а предпочел умерить его пыл и обезопасить систему от слишком вознесшегося молодого волка с товарищами в ФСБ.
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Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
1/ Russia’s Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov, before moving to the Supreme Court, launched a new asset seizure — this time against SPbGUP, the fiefdom of Alexander Zapesotsky. 🔗 www.kommersant.ru/doc/8058267
kommersant.ru
Прокуроры занялись профсоюзным обучением
Генпрокуратура требует вернуть государству имущество гуманитарного университета
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Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 22/09/2025
1/ New @bbcrussian piece with my comments on Russia’s icebreaker fleet and why sanctions hit especially hard in the Arctic. 🔗 www.bbc.com/russian/art...
bbc.com
Битва за Арктику. Как Россия начала отставать в производстве ледоколов - BBC News Русская служба
В России за последние три года сдали в эксплуатацию всего один атомный ледокол, хотя до начала полномасштабной войны с Украиной сдавали по судну в год. Российский ледокольный флот стремительно устаревает. Планы Кремля по покорению Арктики буксуют на фоне санкций и сложностей с поставками запчастей.
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Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 21/09/2025
Continued my annual tradition of writing for @ecfr.eu on Russia’s local elections. The Kremlin uses these votes to test what may happen in the real campaigns In 2025 we saw the growing role of war veterans—now entering regional parliaments and expected to fill the Duma in 2026 ecfr.eu/article/fro...
ecfr.eu
From battlefield to ballot box: Why Russia is drafting war veterans into politics
The rising prominence of veterans of the war in Ukraine will widen Russia’s elite coalition pushing for continued confrontation with the West…
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Reposted by Mikhail Komin
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 20/09/2025
The rising prominence of veterans of the war in Ukraine will widen Russia’s elite coalition pushing for continued confrontation with the West, writes Mikhail Komin @ecfrpower.bsky.social bit.ly/41ZOv1o
bit.ly
From battlefield to ballot box: Why Russia is drafting war veterans into politics
The rising prominence of veterans of the war in Ukraine will widen Russia’s elite coalition pushing for continued confrontation with the West…
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