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justin key canfil

@jcanfil.bsky.social
463 followers 256 following 19 posts

Assistant Prof @CarnegieMellon ■ science & tech, intl law, 美中关系

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Reposted by justin key canfil
International Organization @iojournal.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
A new essay by @jonastallberg.bsky.social, @stefwalter.bsky.social and Michael Zürn discusses what we know about the patterns and causes of, and responses to, such contestation, as well as avenues for future research. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
Contestation of International Organizations: Patterns, Drivers, and Responses | International Organization | Cambridge Core
Contestation of International Organizations: Patterns, Drivers, and Responses
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Reposted by justin key canfil
Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy & Technology @cmist-cmu.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Why is it that despite foreseeing the dangers of emerging technologies, states don’t do more to control tomorrow’s technologies today? In @isq-jrnl.bsky.social, CMIST's @jcanfil.bsky.social argues that technological secrecy produces an “opacity trap." academic.oup.com/isq/article/...
academic.oup.com
The Opacity Trap: Why States Wait to Govern Emerging Technologies
Abstract. Arms control overwhelmingly concerns technologies that states already possess rather than those they might one day develop. Why do states prefer
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Sassan Gholiagha @sassangholiagha.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Today at 4 pm we have a Roundtable on the Oxford Handbook of Norms Research in IR with @antjewiener.bsky.social @carolinefehl.bsky.social Anna Holzscheiter, @ruji-aue.bsky.social @qiaochuzhang.bsky.social, & yours truly. Come along for a conversation about norms research #EISAPEC26 #EISAPEC2026.
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Reposted by justin key canfil
Daniel Drezner @dandrezner.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
Good morning. Nothing to see here, just the possible end of American scientific research as we know it. open.substack.com/pub/danieldr...
open.substack.com
The Trump Administration's Existential Threat to Scientific Research
You want a request for comment?! I got your comment right here.
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BeijingPalmer @beijingpalmer.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
this is literally how the Marxism classes in China work
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Dan Garisto @dangaristo.bsky.social · 25/04/2026
Breaking: Trump has fired the membership of the National Science Board, which is oversees NSF. I have confirmed separately with multiple now-former members of NSB.
democrats-science.house.gov
Ranking Member Lofgren Reacts to Latest Trump Scheme to Undermine Science | House Committee on Science, Space and Technology
The House Committee on Science, Space and Technology
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Rob @greaterhermit.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
This article was designed to make me become the joker. When the NPT was signed, there were zero nuclear armed states outside of it. The fact that there are now almost as many states with nukes outside as inside is THE problem in non-proliferation rn and Israel is a full QUARTER of that problem.
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justin key canfil @jcanfil.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
Full article is open-access (ungated): cup.org/4bX6mKJ
cup.org
Convergent Flexibility: How International Law Keeps Pace with Technological Change | International Organization | Cambridge Core
Convergent Flexibility: How International Law Keeps Pace with Technological Change
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justin key canfil @jcanfil.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
I’m deeply grateful to the reviewers and editors whose feedback improved the article. I also thank @iojournal.bsky.social for its policy of excluding citations from the word count, which made it possible to pair the experiment with qualitative research on real-world examples.
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justin key canfil @jcanfil.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
7/ What about AI and other emerging tech? The findings suggest international cooperation is more plausible than it seems. If agreements embed convergent flexibility, even rivalrous countries may align on how to apply existing rules even without being able to fully specify the future upfront.
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justin key canfil @jcanfil.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
6/ All of this matters for foreign policy. Every regime has lawyers, but not all listen. Ignoring unwelcome advice can backfire, leaving opportunistic states exposed—even when the law predates an invention. I show this in two cases: regulation of novichok and tear gas.
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justin key canfil @jcanfil.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
5/ The results are illuminating: resilience doesn’t come from extremely precise rules. It comes from designing legal language that channels interpretation in convergent ways, helping law adapt without breaking. Tech may expose loophole, but precision is the key accelerant.
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justin key canfil @jcanfil.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
4/ As a test, I asked the professionals. An RCT was embedded in a persuasive writing contest open to US T14 law affiliates who met minimum qualifications. Participants generated 1,000 pages of legal opinion defending their views on whether old laws apply to novel technologies.
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justin key canfil @jcanfil.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
3/ Simply relaxing precision won’t solve the tradeoff; 𝗮𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗴𝘂𝗶𝘁𝘆 makes all analogies seem fair game. We tend to lump them, but 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 differs: it eases analogies in only one direction—steering actors toward interpretations that even opportunists can’t deny.
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justin key canfil @jcanfil.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
2/ We prize precision because it limits competing analogies. Yet analogy is how rules endure. So how do lawmakers channel analogy toward consensus when the future is unknown?
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justin key canfil @jcanfil.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
1/ Technology is always advancing. So what does it take to future-proof the law? My latest research in International Organization (@iojournal.bsky.social) argues that efforts to maximize legal clarity can actually undermine the law’s resilience. cup.org/4bX6mKJ
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Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 27/03/2026
#OpenAccess from @iojournal.bsky.social - Convergent Flexibility: How International Law Keeps Pace with Technological Change - cup.org/4bLca9S - @jcanfil.bsky.social #FirstView
A large white "IO" on a dark blue background with the hashtag "#OpenAccess" below it.
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Adam Berinsky @adamberinsky.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
I'm teaching a few survey research courses live and online. First, a free one hour seminar. Feb 20 instats.org/seminar/surv... Then a set of two (half) day courses. Not free (sorry!). -Intro Surveys (Feb 26-27): instats.org/seminar/intr... -Advanced Surveys (March 5-6): instats.org/seminar/adva...
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I support Somali-Americans @adamrothman.bsky.social · 28/11/2025
From Frederick Douglass's 1867 "Composite Nation" speech, a defense of Chinese migration to the United States at a time when anti-Chinese sentiment was intensifying. teachingamericanhistory.org/document/our...
If we would reach a degree of civilization higher and grander than any yet attained, we should welcome to our ample continent all the nations, kindreds, tongues and peoples, and as fast as they learn our language and comprehend the duties of citizenship, we should incorporate them into the American body politic. The outspread wings of the American eagle are broad enough to shelter all who are likely to come.
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Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 20/11/2025
Introduction to the new issue of @iojournal.bsky.social - The Future of Global Governance and World Order - cup.org/3X6ZQKm - Brett Ashley Leeds, @laynamosley.bsky.social, B. Peter Rosendorff & @aysezarakol.bsky.social #OpenAccess
IO abstract of a special issue of International Organization, focusing on global trends such as China's rise, anti-globalization, populism, new technologies, and climate change.
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Reposted by justin key canfil
Alexander H. Montgomery @alexmontgomery.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
My latest publication, and my first published under my @newamerica.org affiliation: “The Nonproliferation Implications of the Spread of Emerging Technologies” with commentary by @jamiewithorne.bsky.social @lrand11.bsky.social @julesgeorge.bsky.social @jcanfil.bsky.social
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justin key canfil @jcanfil.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
Agreed, in a totally different class!
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justin key canfil @jcanfil.bsky.social · 24/05/2025
Yes! The Solist series has won a bunch of awards. Impressive work by a youngish distillery.
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justin key canfil @jcanfil.bsky.social · 24/05/2025
The Kavalan distillery is so great (as is the rest of Yilan). There are several distilleries in Taiwan, though. The other most prominent one is Omar (Nantou), which is state-owned. The rivalry between them is a very interesting story. Kavalan/King Car is superior because they got a head start.
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Patrick Chovanec @prchovanec.bsky.social · 24/05/2025
China knows an own-goal when it sees one. www.newsweek.com/harvard-hkus...
newsweek.com
Chinese college gives Harvard international students "unconditional offers"
Hong Kong University of Science and Technology said it would be opening its doors to Harvard students "amid global academic shifts."
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intlcollaboration.bsky.social @intlcollaboration.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
New Publication Alert: "Innovation and Interdependence: Evidence from Gene-Editing Technology" is now out in @isq-jrnl.bsky.social. Check out this cool paper by @cobrienudry.bsky.social and Tyler Pratt. doi.org/10.1093/isq/...
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War on the Rocks @warontherocks.bsky.social · 18/04/2025
Serving with honor doesn’t always mean everyone does. Two Army veterans discuss serving under a commander convicted and later pardoned for war crimes in Afghanistan and the lasting impact of those events. warontherocks.com/episode/sold...
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American Political Science Review @apsrjournal.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
Just published on APSR First View: "How Cases Speak to One Another: Using Translation to Rethink Generalization in Political Science Research" by Erica Simmons and Nicholas Rush Smith. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
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Katharine Hayhoe @katharinehayhoe.com · 10/03/2025
The NASA office of technology, policy and strategy as well as the office of the chief scientist are both being shut down, and its overall science budget may be slashed by as much as 50%.
arstechnica.com
White House may seek to slash NASA’s science budget by 50 percent
“It would be nothing short of an extinction-level event for space science.”…
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Jason "Red5" Lyall @jaylyall.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
Gutting the Minerva program means the loss of one of our last funding sources for long-term, risky, ambitious data collection on political violence. Almost impossible to replace with other sources (though we should try). Not even penny-wise, just foolish. This makes us dumber and less safe
science.org
Pentagon guts national security program that harnessed social science
Dozens of U.S. academics lose grants from Minerva program for studies related to terrorism, drug trafficking, and other threats
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Ulrike Franke @rikefranke.eu · 16/01/2025
Great read on the US Replicator programmes which aims to do military acquisition differently and address the dominance of China on drones. Europe needs a Replicator - and a Kathleen Hicks! www.defensenews.com/pentagon/202...
defensenews.com
The Pentagon’s ‘Replicator’ drone bonanza faces an uncertain future
At stake is the military's ability to adjust to the future of war and compete with China, its main rival.
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justin key canfil @jcanfil.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
PSA for PhD/PhD-bound students! Interested in 🇨🇳 politics/foreign policy? NBR is offering generous fellowships ($40-50k) to set aside an entire year for Chinese language improvement. Info session Dec 12. US citizens/PRs only. www.nbr.org/chinese-lang...
nbr.org
Chinese Language Fellowship Program | The National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR)
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Millie Tran @millietran.com · 26/11/2024
If you need a refresher on tariffs, @cfr.org's got you. What are tariffs, who uses them, who pays? www.cfr.org/backgrounder...
cfr.org
What Are Tariffs?
U.S. Presidents Trump and Biden have both turned to tariffs to support local industries amid economic confrontation with China. Here’s how these taxes work and how they’ve been used historically.
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International Organization @iojournal.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
#FirstView: UCSDPoliSci's Michael Joseph and Michael Poznansky ask why some of the most radical innovations of the last century came from orgs shrouded in secrecy. The findings have important implications for debates about tech, innovation, and US-China rivalry. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
Secret Innovation | International Organization | Cambridge Core
Secret Innovation
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justin key canfil @jcanfil.bsky.social · 23/11/2024
“I’d have to say the Chinese have matched, or exceeded, what we can do — and we didn’t see this one coming.” Quite a statement about Salt Typhoon. www.nytimes.com/2024/11/22/u...
nytimes.com
Emerging Details of Chinese Hack Leave U.S. Officials Increasingly Concerned
Leaders of the big telecommunications companies were summoned to the White House to discuss strategies for overhauling the security of the nation’s telecommunications networks amid growing alarm at th...
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François Diaz-Maurin @francoisdm.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
Read this great new story about weather weapons and weather control. By @jcanfil.bsky.social In @thebulletin.org thebulletin.org/2024/11/can-... #climatechange #cloudseeding @jessimckenzi.bsky.social
thebulletin.org
Can they control the weather? How the secretive history of weather weapons fuels conspiracy theories
Policymakers should be more transparent about the limits, context, and actual potential of weather control so that citizens can make informed decisions about how to manage the coming consequences of c...
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Jessica McKenzie @jessimckenzi.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
Can they control the weather? How the secretive history of weather weapons fuels conspiracy theories Fascinating article by @jcanfil.bsky.social @thebulletin.org Traces contemporary conspiracy theories about weather control back to real history of weather weapons thebulletin.org/2024/11/can-...
thebulletin.org
Can they control the weather? How the secretive history of weather weapons fuels conspiracy theories
Policymakers should be more transparent about the limits, context, and actual potential of weather control so that citizens can make informed decisions about how to manage the coming consequences of c...
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justin key canfil @jcanfil.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
Happy that my article on hurricane weapons is finally online @thebulletin.org. No, we can’t control the weather—but not for lack of trying: thebulletin.org/2024/11/can-...
thebulletin.org
Can they control the weather? How the secretive history of weather weapons fuels conspiracy theories
Policymakers should be more transparent about the limits, context, and actual potential of weather control so that citizens can make informed decisions about how to manage the coming consequences of c...
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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
Also known as the Drone Anti-Submarine Helicopter (DASH), the only nuclear-armed unmanned aerial vehicle. Operational range was about 35 miles and flight endurance was approximately 2 hours. The yield of the B57 bomb was about 5 kilotons.
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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
Tonight in 1983, more than 100 million Americans saw multiple thermonuclear weapons destroy Kansas City, Missouri, in “The Day After” on ABC. A.C. Nielsen Company reported that 62 percent of television sets that night were tuned to the film. I watched in my packed college dorm lounge. How about you?
The cover of the November 21, 1983, edition of Newsweek, with the text:

"TV"s Nuclear Nightmare
Public Service or Propaganda?
How Will It Affect Children?

Below this is a color photo of a scene from the movie (oversaturated in orange and yellow) of a large mushroom cloud rising over a road and farm fields, as a young man runs toward the camera while glancing back at the cloud.The cover of the November 19-25 edition of TV Guide with the text:

"America is Hit
'The Day After Brings Nuclear War Horror ... and Hot Controversy"

The cover is a color photo montage of a nuclear fireball, in front of which are running (toward the camera) a young boy in a striped shirt and, behind him, andolder man (John Cullum) in a plaid shirt and blue jeans.
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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 17/11/2024
"Power Rules: Practical Statistical Power Calculations" Among other things, I write about how researchers might use pilot data to inform power calculations. Feedback welcomed! www.carlislerainey.com/power-rules/...
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justin key canfil @jcanfil.bsky.social · 18/01/2024
Thanks again Tom!
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Thomas Scherer @tlscherer.bsky.social · 18/01/2024
New #dataset on International #Cyber Expression out in Journal of Peace Research. @jcanfil.bsky.social collects >34K official government statements on cyberspace. I love this figure showing that the state focus has shifted.
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Asif Siddiqi @historyasif.bsky.social · 04/10/2023
Sputnik was 66 years ago today. I curated a set of about a dozen original Soviet archival sources (translated!) on the origins of the world's first satellite, hosted by The Wilson Center in Washington, DC: www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/ne... #histsci #histtech
wilsoncenter.org
New Sources on Sputnik
Documents added to DigitalArchive.org provide a look at the origins of Sputnik, the first Soviet satellite.
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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 30/09/2023
Today in 1966, the Soviet Union detonated a 30-kiloton nuclear device 5,026 feet underground to successfully extinguish a natural gas fire that had raged out of control for nearly three years in the Urta-Bulak gas field in the Uzbek Soviet Socialist Republic.
youtube.com
USSR used nuclear bombs to stop gas well blowouts
In September, 1966 the former Soviet Union suffered blowouts on five natural gas (methane) wells and despite their best efforts, including hydraulic fracturi...
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justin key canfil @jcanfil.bsky.social · 20/09/2023
Thanks! I should’ve also mentioned - and skynet ?
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justin key canfil @jcanfil.bsky.social · 20/09/2023
Hi polisky - Carnegie Mellon is hiring in IR/security! Junior/senior lines. Apply by 10/23. Happy to answer questions apply.interfolio.com/132453
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justin key canfil @jcanfil.bsky.social · 20/09/2023
@profmusgrave.bsky.social please add me to polisky?
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