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Alexander H. Montgomery

@alexmontgomery.bsky.social
563 followers 94 following 109 posts

Professor @reed.edu Nonresident Senior Fellow @newamerica.org IR/SNA/STS/WMD alexmontgomery.com tinyurl.com/oxhbpo I'm not a donkey, I don't have a field.

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Alexander H. Montgomery @alexmontgomery.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Installed muse on my phone (no additional permissions, thanks for the sandbox, Apple!). Asked it to change the avatar into a daemon. The result was a little too cute (of course). But apparently Meta doesn’t allow more sinister version.
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Alexander H. Montgomery @alexmontgomery.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Fascinating interview with Jensen Huang. He gets a lot right regarding anthropomorphization and stupid end-of-world AI predictions. He argues that companies shouldn't ship unsafe products, but clearly has too much faith that regulation will just... happen.
nytimes.com
Opinion | Jensen Huang Thinks A.I. Alarmism Has Gone Too Far (Gift Article)
Jensen Huang, the chief executive of Nvidia, does not want you to be afraid of A.I.
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
IR Book of the Week! "The Arms Control Paradox" by Amy J. Nelson. Lots of discussion recently about nuclear arms control, both for its own sake and as a model for AI regulation. "Elimination" is not realistic, but management of expectations (or, more directly, ambiguity & uncertainty) is possible.
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Sanne Verschuren @sannecjv.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
New article alert: Why do interstate arms collaborations fail? I argue that failure can be attributed to the commitment-implementation paradox, meaning that the conditions that make it attractive for states to join the collaboration are those that make it difficult for them to implement it.
tandfonline.com
Why interstate arms collaborations fail: The commitment-implementation paradox in the context of NATO BMD
Steered by the promise of technological, economic, and security gains, states seek partnerships to build, purchase, and operationalize military technology. Yet, these collaborations do not always y...
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Alexander H. Montgomery @alexmontgomery.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
“The Machine God metaphor, which is really just a catchy rephrasing of longstanding notions among a particular community of AI people, has broken out of containment.”
programmablemutter.com
Machine god metaphors eat your brain
There are other ways of thinking about AI
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Jess Miers 🦝 @jmiers230.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
In recent cases, it's not that AI somehow "escaped containment" or "went rogue." That's anthropomorphizing at best. It's more like if a Boston Dynamics robot dog nudged open an already open door and walked in.
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Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
1/6 Broad arms control agreements get hardest to negotiate at exactly the point they would do the most work: when uncertainty about the other side is highest. That paradox is the subject of my book, out Sept. 15 from Stanford University Press.
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Alexander H. Montgomery @alexmontgomery.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
The wrong people, with the wrong incentives, making the wrong choices. There is plenty of agency and culpability, don’t let people pretend they’re not responsible.
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Alexander H. Montgomery @alexmontgomery.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Oregon and Washington would like a word. As would Portland.
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Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
1/ My new piece in Orbis is about a specific failure mode I call phantom signaling: a warning or accusation issued with no threshold named in advance and no consequence attached to crossing one. It looks like a signal from the outside and carries no information.
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Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
We tend to assume arms control agreements hold because violations would be caught. Detection is important, but it has never been the main thing keeping states in compliance. What keeps them in is having enough information about the other side to make staying in the better bet.
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Alexander H. Montgomery @alexmontgomery.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
The authors have the full receipts here, although the plot certainly passes the interocular test. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
The Generative AI Learning Penalty: Evidence from Chinese Secondary Education
Using 30 months of panel data on 26,811 Chinese students in grades 7-12, we study how generative AI affects homework productivity and learning. The data combine
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Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
“Arms control isn’t about eliminating uncertainty. It’s about learning to manage it.” My book, The Arms Control Paradox, launches September 15. Since the announcement, this line has resonated more than any other. Here’s the argument behind it.
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Alexander H. Montgomery @alexmontgomery.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
An excellent post by @himself.bsky.social connected to an even better FT piece, which manages to refer to these billionaires who are creating Philip K. Dick’s worlds as… “Dickish.”
programmablemutter.com
We're stuck in Philip K. Dick's imagined universe
Hallucinations, rocket ships, deranged billionaires: how do we get out?
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Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Last month, Future Security Scenarios Lab @newamerica.org merica.org gathered #nuclear policy experts for Control+Alt+Deter's Scenario Planning stage. They ran live crisis scenarios, stepping into the shoes of U.S. policymakers racing to restore deterrence.
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segoddard.bsky.social @segoddard.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Next steps! Beyond honored to join this faculty, and especially grateful to the work of past directors (including the venerable @profsaunders.bsky.social www.sipa.columbia.edu/news/stacie-...
sipa.columbia.edu
Stacie Goddard Named Director of SIPA’s Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
A renowned political scientist, Goddard brings expertise in great power politics and international order to SIPA’s leading research institute on strategic studies.
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Alexander H. Montgomery @alexmontgomery.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
I really wish I’d thought of Operation Epic Fail.
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Alexander H. Montgomery @alexmontgomery.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
The USS Missouri was unavailable.
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Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Excited to share my latest in @nytopinion.nytimes.com with co-author Sean Anthony Guillory: Prediction markets aren't just a finance story — they're a national security one. Read our full argument in NYT Opinion
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Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
Trump said today he wouldn't use a nuclear weapon against Iran. The pledge is welcome. The reasoning stopped me. @reuters.com www.reuters.com/world/middle...
reuters.com
Trump says US will not use nuclear weapon in Iran war
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday ​that he would not use a nuclear weapon in ‌the war against Iran.
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Alexander H. Montgomery @alexmontgomery.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Koblentz reads the IAEA report so you don’t have to. The fact that the site has not been attacked (yet) lends credence to the idea that this is a regime change war, not a nonproliferation one.
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Alexander H. Montgomery @alexmontgomery.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
A lot of ink has been wasted on debating whether Russia has an escalate-to-deescalate policy. Apparently France does now, in order to “restore deterrence.” @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social
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Alexander H. Montgomery @alexmontgomery.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
youtube.com
Tom Lehrer - Who's Next - with intro
YouTube video by The Tom Lehrer Wisdom Channel
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Alexander H. Montgomery @alexmontgomery.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
And tomorrow, it will be Wednesday.
media.tenor.com
a woman wearing glasses and a blue shirt is asking what a week huh ?
ALT: a woman wearing glasses and a blue shirt is asking what a week huh ?
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Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
When agreements erode, force replaces diplomacy. The U.S. operation in Iran is a signal about what comes after limits and frameworks in the nuclear order. My thoughts below. www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
newamerica.org
When Force Replaces Frameworks: What Iran Signals About the Future of Arms Control
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Alexander H. Montgomery @alexmontgomery.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
The paper also quickly falls into the anthropomorphic trap; the abstract immediately attributes a “rich theory of mind” to LLMs.
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Useful report here: U.S. has assembled significant air & naval power in the Mid East but still lacking logistics (and, I would add, munitions) for a truly extended campaign. Doesn't mean US won't attack Iran but does suggest limited target set. www.csis.org/analysis/us-...
csis.org
U.S. Military in the Middle East: Numbers Behind Trump’s Threats Against Iran
Eight months after Operation Midnight Hammer, the United States has again moved large air and naval forces to the Middle East. These can launch punitive strikes on Iran and protect U.S. allies and par...
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Christopher Clary @claryc.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
One thing notable as I consider this episode is that I am unaware of any Biden administration official—by name or on background—who has indicated the Trump admin is wrong about this event.
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Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
After New START, stability will depend less on treaties and more on strategy. Out today: I argue for “disciplined ambiguity” in a post-treaty environment: not secrecy for its own sake, deliberate choices about what to clarify, what to withhold, and how signals shape escalation risk. bit.ly/4bcgKOn
bit.ly
After New START: The Case for Disciplined Ambiguity
With New START expired, stability depends less on transparency and more on managed uncertainty.
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Dan Nexon @dhnexon.net · 17/02/2026
It turns out late-stage capitalism is the monetization of addiction and dependence. The opium trade but via universally available digital media.
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Jane Vaynman @janevaynman.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
So, I spent many many years working on my book, and it coincidentally comes out the same week as the end of the New START Treaty.  In print from Cambridge University Press next week, and ebook is online now. www.cambridge.org/vaynman or on Amazon: a.co/d/0brNOTKq
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Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
Excited to share the cover of my forthcoming book, The Arms Control Paradox, out with @stanfordpress.bsky.social in Sept 2026. It examines why #armscontrol works when it manages uncertainty—and why that task has become harder. #InternationalRelations #DecisionTheory
Book cover for The Arms Control Paradox: Managing Uncertainty in an Insecure World by [Author Name]. The title appears in large text at the top, with the subtitle below. The design is minimalist, using a restrained color palette and abstract graphic elements that suggest tension and balance. The publisher, Stanford University Press, is listed at the bottom.
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douglasbshaw.bsky.social @douglasbshaw.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
www.nti.org/analysis/art...
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Alexander H. Montgomery @alexmontgomery.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
“Indeed, despite the anarchist belief that freedom from authority is the utopian ideal, anarchists are rather autocratic in wanting their definition of “anarchy” to be the only one in existence.” 😂
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Alexander H. Montgomery @alexmontgomery.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
"What is the smallest British military force that would be of any practical assistance to you?" Wilson asked. Like a rapier flash came Foch's reply, "A single British soldier-and we will see to it that he is killed." -Barbara Tuchman, The Guns of August, p.59
the-independent.com
UK sends military officer to Greenland amid ongoing Trump threats
Other Nato allies are also stepping up their presence in the region
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Alexander H. Montgomery @alexmontgomery.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
Another piece of the puzzle that connects Putin and Trump to Ukraine and Venezuela.
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Alexander H. Montgomery @alexmontgomery.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
“President Trump emphasized that he expects the first two hulls to hit the water in two and a half years, a timeline that is not plausible given current understanding of the constraints imposed by the laws of physics.” 😂
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Alexander H. Montgomery @alexmontgomery.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
“Swearing is literally a calorie-neutral, drug-free, low-cost, readily available tool at our disposal for when we need a boost in performance.”
arstechnica.com
Does swearing make you stronger? Science says yes.
“A calorie-neutral, drug-free, low-cost, readily available tool for when we need a boost in performance.”…
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Alexander H. Montgomery @alexmontgomery.bsky.social · 14/12/2025
And typically just WaPo and NYT *titles*
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Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
Harnessing disagreement is not a nice-to-have in nuclear policy. It is a resilience requirement. #NuclearRisk #StrategicStability #Deterrence @newamerica.org
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Amy J. Nelson @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
My @foreignpolicy.com op-ed is now live. It looks at what the nuclear policy field can learn from other deeply divided fields that rebuilt coherence and widened public engagement. Op-ed: foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/11/n... Report: www.newamerica.org/future-secur... #NuclearRisk #NationalSecurity
newamerica.org
Threat Complacency and Nuclear Risk: Addressing Old Threats in a New Era
This report explores why public awareness of nuclear threats fails to spark action—and how to break the cycle.
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New America @newamerica.org · 11/12/2025
Public awareness of nuclear danger remains high even as action to reduce it is rare. Read the latest report by @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social to learn more. ☢️ www.newamerica.org/future-security/…
Cover of the report titled 'Threat and Nuclear Risk: Addressing Old Threats' by Amy J. Nelson, for New America's Future Security program, featuring yellow warning triangles on a dark background.
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Alexander H. Montgomery @alexmontgomery.bsky.social · 07/12/2025
I haven’t been able to bring myself to slog through the whole NSS yet, but @carriealee.bsky.social has a reading that inoculates against “expert” attempts to treat it as something other than what it is.
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Alexander H. Montgomery @alexmontgomery.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
Try Theories of International Politics and Zombies by @dandrezner.bsky.social
a.co
Theories of International Politics and Zombies: Apocalypse Edition: Drezner, Daniel W.: 9780691223513: Amazon.com: Books
Theories of International Politics and Zombies: Apocalypse Edition [Drezner, Daniel W.] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. Theories of International Politics and Zombies: Apocalypse ...
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Alexander H. Montgomery @alexmontgomery.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
Kinetic also involves non-“military” uses of deadly force by what technically are civilians, including contractors, clandestine agencies, state-sponsored terrorist groups, mafia, and some mercenaries, that offer (among other things) greater deniability when used by a state.
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Dan Nexon @dhnexon.net · 01/12/2025
OT: I actually think that *academic* international-relations scholars *should* be using "kinetic" more, but that's for a very specific reason: we talk about "military power" & "military capabilities" in a way that collapses their social & symbolic properties w/ their employment to destroy things.
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Alexander H. Montgomery @alexmontgomery.bsky.social · 17/11/2025
This is definitely going in my next AI slide deck.
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Alexander H. Montgomery @alexmontgomery.bsky.social · 17/11/2025
When @jenvictor.bsky.social discusses American political networks, pull up a seat!
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Adam Mount @ajmount.com · 13/11/2025
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