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Jay Shambaugh

@jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
1.2K followers 506 following 108 posts

Professor of Econ and Intl affairs at GW Former: Under Secretary of Intl Affairs at Treasury, Director of the Hamilton Project at Brookings, Member at WH CEA, Senior /chief economist at CEA.

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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Really hard to know how Congress can negotiate a budget with an executive branch that chooses to ignore the budget (violating the law).
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Sharon Parrott @sharonparrott.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The Trump Admin once again announced, w/ no prior notice & no time for Congress to respond, that it was taking illegal unilateral action — a so-called “pocket rescission” impoundment — to cause $800M+ from 11 program accounts to expire unused after 9/30. time.com/article/2026...
time.com
What Is a ‘Pocket Rescission’? Inside Trump’s Move to Cancel $810 Million in Federal Funding
The Trump Administration is seeking to claw back spending that was approved for programs including those serving immigrants, refugees, minority groups, and children.
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Sanctioning judges and now the whole ICC is a mistake and irresponsible. Every use of a chokepoint invites others to find ways around it. Using a chokepoint in a way others see as illegitimate or capricious does so even more. They are undermining long run U.S. interests and power.
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Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke @kevinhorourke.eurosky.social · 21/09/2026
Such a move would be a classic example of how in the long run to weaken your power by actually choosing to exercise it. Because there would obviously be consequences.
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Chad P. Bown @chadpbown.com · 01/09/2026
How should the US, Mexico and Canada renegotiate USMCA to fight the trade war with China? Thanks to @foreignaffairs.com for inviting my essay to make the case. GIFT LINK: www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Especially on a day Meta admits to harming teens, it feels odd to say anything positive about social media today. But, the ability to scroll through and find clips of bands from Jack white to the Avett brothers doing tributes to Dolly last night is pretty amazing. RIP to a great human being
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Douglas Irwin @douglasirwin.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Fragmenting the North American auto market makes it a smaller and less attractive market....
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
It can be easy to miss things like this in the chaos, but putting the Census bureau name on a bogus report with bad analysis can undermine trust in the essential data they release. I haven’t seen evidence of faked data. But they should not mess with the reputation of these agencies.
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
www.cnbc.com/2026/08/17/c.... For those of who have worried about how China’s economy is affecting others. Slow retail sales, drag from property sector, and slower (but still strong) industrial production data (plus previously reported strong exports) is pretty much all our worries at once.
cnbc.com
China's economy slows further in July as retail sales barely grow, investment slump steepens
The data is reinforcing concerns about the health of the world's second-largest economy, which has grappled with a deepening supply-demand imbalance.
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
This is a terrible abuse of the 301 process. These tariffs should be tossed out, and once again, Congress should take steps to reassert its powers to set taexes. The President illegitimately raised taxes today. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/23/b...
nytimes.com
Trump Administration to Impose New Tariffs of Around 10% on Over 80 Nations
The administration announced new duties tied to countries’ imports of goods made with forced labor, replacing a global 10 percent tariff set to expire at midnight.
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
States face enormous penalties based on "error rate." But, error rate is calculated by examining only the population of households *actively receiving benefits.* So if someone is improperly denied benefits entirely, doesn't count toward the state’s error rate. www.thebulwark.com/p/trumps-one...
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
As I said. Predictable and horrible.
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
This is entirely unsurprising,but still important to track and take note of. Work requirements and other high hurdles of paperwork keep eligible people who need support from accessing benefits. Kids will go hungry. We could all see it coming. Doesn’t make it less horrible.
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Again, when we make it through this, finally, every single one of these "magic words" imperial presidency trade & national emergency laws need to go. Every one of them: bsky.app/profile/mcop...
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Using section 338 is important. It is far more flexible than 301 (no investigations and rules just whatever the President says) no time limits. Only small silver lining for the economy is it is capped at 50%. He can’t keep escalating on whims. Someone should introduce a bill tomorrow revoking 338.
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Congress desperately needs to re-assert control over tariff (tax) policy, by getting rid of these old laws that everyone assumed no one would use. Our system is not intended to let one person raise taxes on a whim.
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
Forget halftime music at the World Cup. I would tune in for this and be riveted.
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Mike Vorkunov @mikevorkunov.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
That was the most remarkable NBA game I've ever seen.
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
For NBA fans waiting 2 days for a game. This is addictive. (And Wilt is clearly the cheat code). www.82-0.com/share?id=oXv...
82-0.com
82-0
Build the ultimate NBA all-time team and see if you can go 82-0
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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
New OECD report: "Industrial firms based in China receive more subsidies than competitors based everywhere else. Between 2005 and 2024, Chinese firms received on average 3-8 times more gov support than firms based in the OECD, a conservative estimate" www.oecd.org/en/publicati...
oecd.org
OECD MAGIC Database of Industrial Subsidies
Industrial subsidies have reached their highest levels since the global financial crisis, amounting to USD 108 billion in 2024 and reflecting governments’ renewed interest for industrial policy in a c...
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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 30/05/2026
One of the reasons oil prices didn't spike to $200 is because temporary supply buffers played a big role in plugging the shortfall in the global oil market. Those supply buffers are depleting fast. @econharris.bsky.social and I lay out a timeline in this blog post: www.brookings.edu/articles/the...
brookings.edu
The timing of the impending crude crisis | Brookings
With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and reserves depleting, Robin Brooks and Ben Harris estimate a timeline of increasing oil prices.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Tariffs didn't encourage re-shoring of musical instrument production - in fact, they did the opposite, spurring further offshoring and eating the seed corn of the US musical instrument manufacturer's customer base: student musicians. www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
piie.com
Tariffs slashed US musical instrument imports, but to what end?
The Trump administration argued that steeply higher tariffs on imported goods would spur a wave of reshoring and reinvestment in US manufacturing. For musical instruments, that hasn't happened. Instea...
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Marina Zucker Marques @marinazucker.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
Reminder: the IMF has a fund — the Catastrophe Containment & Relief Trust — designed exactly for moments like the Ebola outbreak now raging in DR Congo. BUT it's nearly empty. The cash left wouldn't even cover DRC's own debt repayments to the IMF in 2026 May- Dec.
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Mike Vorkunov @mikevorkunov.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
The Knicks are in great company as they head to the NBA Finals. Teams to win 11 straight playoff games in the same spring: 2017 Warriors (champs), 1999 Spurs (champs), 2001 Lakers (champs), 1989 Lakers (swept in the Finals). And now the 2026 New York Knicks.
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 24/05/2026
If you have a Knicks fan in your life, you may have to excuse them if they are a bit distracted/dazed right now. Oh. And really happy.
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 24/05/2026
If you keep hearing terms like economic security, chokepoints, export controls, etc tossed around and you want to understand them, read this outstanding piece by @soumayakeynes.ft.com It expertly walks through the tricky world we live in.
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Chad P. Bown @chadpbown.com · 21/05/2026
America is burning through missiles faster than the defense industry can replenish them. The constraint is a lack of competition. In 1990 there were 51 prime defense firms. Today there are five. Three control 90% of U.S. missile supply and don’t compete with each other. by Peter Devine & Sam Slocum
wsj.com
Opinion | U.S. Defense Needs More Competition, Not More Money
The Pentagon doesn’t have to rely on legacy suppliers. It can create alternatives that others can produce.
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
It is good to see the courts enforce the law. Congress has not given the President the authority to use tariffs (a tax) on a whim or on all goods. The section 122 tariffs were clearly inappropriately applied. Congrats to all involved in the case including @stanveuger.bsky.social
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Stan Veuger @stanveuger.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
The Section 122 tariffs are unlawful, as well.
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
For those who want to witness history, Knicks up 49 with 2:59 to go in the first half. Record for the playoffs is 41 at the half.
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
I like penalizing the worst teams. You need to change incentives if you want teams to not aim for last. But it seems like there should be a threshold (27 wins? 30 wins?) where this doesn’t apply. If you are 3rd worst but won 30 games, doesn’t seem like there should be a penalty.
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Soumaya Keynes @soumayakeynes.ft.com · 27/04/2026
Do read @bhgreeley.bsky.social's FAB piece on the petrodollar (1st 300 clicks free to read) as.ft.com/r/92ef3e7b-7...
as.ft.com
There’s no such thing as the petrodollar
War on Iran is changing the currency calculations of Gulf energy exporters. But the dollar’s global role depends on far more than the denomination of a barrel of oil
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Chad P. Bown @chadpbown.com · 13/04/2026
If not the US dollar, what are the main major drivers of current account imbalances today? - Unsustainable US federal budget outlook - China's failure to shift its economy further toward a non-deflationary, consumption-driven growth model by Maury Obstfeld
piie.com
Don't blame America's current account deficit on the dollar
The Trump administration and China's leaders generally differ on economic policy, but on one proposition some prominent members of their economic teams seem to agree: The dollar's status as the world'...
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
Well argued and important piece by Maury Obstfeld pointing out that despite many wrong arguments to the contrary, the role of the dollar is not the cause of the U.S. current account deficit. Others wanting to hold dollars does not require a trade deficit. It never has.
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
Nice explanation of why the dollar’s role is difficult to overturn by @paulblustein.bsky.social Whenever I’m asked if a country is going to start pricing a commodity in RMB. I ask “what are they going to do with the RMB?” Lack of deep financial market makes it impractical.
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
Very happy to be part of this and thanks to @stanveuger.bsky.social for organizing. Highly recommend people read it. It is in plain English and makes abundantly clear the U.S. does not have a balance of payments deficit or international payments problem and the section 122 tariffs should be tossed.
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
I keep seeing articles saying the President may choose to withdraw from NATO. Shouldn’t they mention that the 2024 NDAA included a provision that no President can withdraw from NATO without the assent from Congress? Curious if lawyers or political scientists think that provision does not hold.
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
This was both predictable and incredibly frustrating to those who believe in helping Ukraine defend itself from an illegal invasion.
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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
We already know the winner in the war with Iran and that's Russia. The closure of the Straits of Hormuz has swung Russian crude from pariah to prized commodity. Urals oil price is the highest since right after the Ukraine invasion. Putin is loving this... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/markets-in...
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David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Spike in oil and natural gas prices is a windfall…for Russia
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
Another example of how the actions of this administration may be driving allies away from us economically over time. It doesn’t cause a big economic shock today, but it erodes the position of US firms overseas over time.
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 22/02/2026
Nice article from @sdonnan.bsky.social walking through the question of whether the conditions for use of tariffs under section 122 are met.
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 22/02/2026
Question of the day seems to be “does the U.S. have a fundamental international payments problem?” Answer is easy “no”. We have enough money flowing into the country via the financial account to fund the deficit in our current account. This really isn’t hard.
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
This is good news. But there are many tools Trump can use where Congress has delegated tariff authority. The challenge for him is most of them cannot be jerked up and down and threatened on a whim. This might eliminate or at least slow some of the ad hoc threats.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Q4/Q4 core PCE inflation was 2.9% last year (vs. 3.0% in 2024). Trump's statement on the GDP report includes a parenthetical jab at the Fed chair, but there's not much of anything in this report that tells the Fed it needs to cut anytime soon.
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
This is for the econ stat nerds. GDP in 2025 grew at 2.2%. Normally, we’d ask, “is that annual average (the average in 2025 vs average in 2024) or q4q4 (the level in 2025:q4 vs 2024 q4). The latter is a better guide of what happened during 2025. This year, they were the same. So no need to argue
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
a member of Congress should introduce a bill that bans any federal agency or any entity receiving federal funds from naming anything after a sitting president. Make Trump veto that. Or make his supporters go on record supporting the cult of personality.
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
I keep pointing this out to people, but I don’t think it is getting enough traction. By making the U.S. an untrustworthy ally, Trump is making US firms risky partners. Even current allies are looking for ways to disentangle from U.S. tech. A bad long run outcome for the U.S.
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
Who could have predicted this? (Where “this” is the idea that indiscriminate tariffs bouncing up and down would raise input costs and uncertainty and hurt manufacturing). Oh right. Everyone. Everyone predicted this.
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Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
When I worked in the WH, lawyers asked me to resign as a Deacon at my church bc the Board of Deacons had fiduciary responsibility, & I couldn’t be a political appointee at the WH and have that for anything but the U.S. Some see the corruption & think “everyone does this”. No. This is awful & new.
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