Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Politically, this points toward creating real alternatives — reliable public transit, affordable EVs, expanded commuter rail — rather than subsidizing fossil fuel prices and thereby entrenching the very dependence that makes these households vulnerable. \end 173
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Both in Saxony-Anhalt/MV and in our recent study, the households at stake are ones heavily exposed to energy costs with few ways to opt out. These are exactly the groups that seem most receptive to the AfD's narrative that these costs were avoidable (e.g. through weaker sanctions). 110
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 24/09/2026A clear policy takeaway is hard to draw from this. But calls for a fuel-price cap are IMO very short-sighted. That would treat the symptom, not the underlying vulnerability. 100
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 24/09/2026BUT: combined with our causal evidence from the 2022/23 energy crisis — a different crisis, a different period, but the same direction — the picture is consistent: energy costs likely played a bigger role in the AfD's 2026 gains than the public debate currently suggests. 110
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 24/09/2026These are just correlations — they can't show causal mechanisms and say nothing about individual voters' motives. Commuting distance is arguably only a rough proxy for actual energy and fuel costs; other factors surely play a role too. 120
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 24/09/2026In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the relationships point the same way but are weaker (r between +0.15 and +0.16). 121
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 24/09/2026In Saxony-Anhalt, there's a clear pattern: the higher the share of commuters, and of those with a commute over 300 km, the higher the AfD vote share (r = +0.44 / +0.31 / +0.30, all p < 0.001). 142
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 24/09/2026That paper focuses on 2022/23. But with current soaring fuel prices the setting somehow felt familiar. So with my team I checked whether a similar pattern shows up in this year's state elections using the share of long-distance commuters as a rough proxy for households exposed to high fuel costs. 120
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Finding: households hit by an above-median increase in their electricity instalments became 7.5 percentage points more likely to support the AfD — despite a multi-billion-euro government relief package. @cesifo.org Working paper No. 12887: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....papers.ssrn.comThe Political Consequences of Energy Price Shocks: Evidence from GermanyWe study the political consequences of Germany's 2022–2023 electricity price increases using four waves of original panel data. Identification exploits the 133
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 24/09/2026We recently showed this link causally — for a different crisis, but clearly: in a paper with Théo Konc, @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social , Jens Ewald and Thomas Sterner, we use our own panel survey and quasi-random variation in the timing of electricity bill increases during the 2022/23 energy crisis. 141
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 24/09/2026In the wake of the recent state elections in Germany, there's a lot of debate about what's driving the strong AfD results — migration, distrust in institutions, the east-west divide. One economic explanation stays IMO underexplored, even though the AfD itself pushes it aggressively: energy prices. 🧵 174
Reposted by Jan Christoph SteckelPIK_climate @pik-potsdam.bsky.social · 16/09/2026That’s a wrap! 🎉 Huge thanks to the 150 participants of #GCET27 in Berlin, hosted by PIK's @jansteckel.bsky.social and @mkalkuhl.bsky.social, with support from @bbaw.bsky.social & @dfg.de. Grateful for the inspiring discussions - see you at #GCET28 in Athens! #EnvironmentalTaxation #CarbonPricing 164
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Third day of #GCET kicked off by @anantsudarshan.bsky.social. What do we know about the capacity to regulate emissions in low and middle income countries? 010
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 15/09/2026We just published a new paper on the political economy of the energy transition in #Indonesia. 👇 020
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Second day of our #GCET27, kicked off by Carolyn Fischer on the past, present and future of the (EU) CBAM. 110
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 14/09/2026First keynote by Ottmar Edenhofer on "Global Commons in a Fragmented World". #GCET27 120
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 14/09/2026Delighted to open the 27th Global Conference on Environmental Taxation #GCET27 in Berlin, this year hosted by @pik-potsdam.bsky.social. We will discuss #EnvironmentalTaxation in light of international climate finance with academics and practitioners from across the world. More: www.gcet27.degcet27.deGCET2727th Global Conference on Environmental Taxation 14–16 September 2026, Berlin, Germany 172
Reposted by Jan Christoph SteckelFederica Genovese @fgenovese.bsky.social · 06/09/2026I know there is about a hundred caveats to note re the A-S election results, ecological fallacy etc — but I really think in the media environment we are in we should never underestimate how “small” events (aka small minorities) capture big narratives, entire nations 2144
Reposted by Jan Christoph SteckelLSE Inequalities @lseinequalities.bsky.social · 19/08/2026📢 Call for papers: Fiscal policy for sustainable development in the Global South On SOUTHMOD’s 10th anniversary, the III and @unu-wider.bsky.social are organising an academic workshop on fiscal policy in developing countries. 📆 Apply by 20 September 2026 🔗 buff.ly/8IGUTJQ 032
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 25/08/2026Environmental economics isn't usually seen at the forefront of just transition debates. In a new paper in #REEP we map what the discipline has contributed to the debate across all four justice dimensions — distributive, restorative, procedural, recognition — and where it needs to catch up. 👇 072
Reposted by Jan Christoph SteckelAERE @aereorg.bsky.social · 25/08/2026📢 What’s current in #REEP? 📢 "The Economics of a Just Transition" by Ireri Hernandez Carballo, Elena Verdolini, Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social, Massimo Tavoni, and Francesco Vona. 📎Read the open-access article: buff.ly/ULfwWEE #EconSky 📈📉 032
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 24/08/2026New WP with Niklas Kramer and Théo Konc. Germany's 2023 heating-ban debate left a mark: people who felt disproportionately hit by the costs lost trust in government & willingness to pay for future climate policy — lasting even after the ban was shelved. 1166
Reposted by Jan Christoph SteckelCESifo @cesifo.org · 17/08/2026🚨Working Paper Alert! "The Political Consequences of Energy Price Shocks: Evidence from Germany" ✍️ Théo Konc, @jansteckel.bsky.social, @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social, Jens Ewald & Thomas Sterner Insights on how rising #energy prices can shift #political preferences. 🔗 www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/pu... 042
Reposted by Jan Christoph SteckelJacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 09/08/2026Glad to have this @cesifo.org working paper out — it’s taken a while, but happy with the first draft. More detailed thread to follow. Very grateful for being able to learn from Théo, @jansteckel.bsky.social, Thomas, and Jens. www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo... 3318
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 03/07/2026Heading home from the great #WCERE2026 @eaere.bsky.social - thanks for everybody, such a great conference, great talks, great organization! The next conference is just around the corner, registration for the Global Conference on Environmental Taxation in September is now open. See you in Berlin! 031
Reposted by Jan Christoph SteckelPIK_climate @pik-potsdam.bsky.social · 02/07/2026Registration now open until 20 August, spots are limited: Fiscal Instruments for International Climate Action GCET27 conference hosted by PIK, 14-16.09.2026 in central Berlin at the Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences and Humanities (BBAW). Register: eveeno.com/gcet27 More info: www.gcet27.de 0125
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 24/06/2026PS: You can browse the effects in detail using our carbon pricing incidence calculator: cpic-global.net See also the press release by @pik-potsdam.bsky.social here: www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...pik-potsdam.deThis is how fair climate action works: Findings for 88 countries with 5 billion people24.06.2026 – A study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) now sheds light, for the first time, on the carbon intensity of household consumption across much of the world – and thu... 011
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 24/06/2026Who is affected by #climate policy? Effects are very heterogenous across households, countries and income groups. Rich vs poor is not a good predictor, but it matters where people live, which appliances they own, etc.. In a new paper @jeem-econ.bsky.social we quantify the effects for 88 countries. 140
Reposted by Jan Christoph SteckelPIK_climate @pik-potsdam.bsky.social · 22/05/2026A new PIK-led study (natural language processing tools plus qualitative analysis) looks at 2,300 #SouthAfrica news articles on #JustEnergyTransition. It finds: broad rhetorical consensus, but persistent divisions over process, policy priorities & pace. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... 064
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 22/05/2026New paper: "Consensus or cheap talk? The discursive politics of #SouthAfrica ’s just energy transition" in @environmentalpol.bsky.social. RQ: Did the discourse on just transitions change since 2008, if so: how does it relate to #JETPs? Short answer: Not really 🔗 doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2026.2670828doi.orgConsensus or cheap talk? The discursive politics of South Africa’s just energy transitionThe just transition concept has been hypothesised to serve as a unifying framework for designing socially accepted fossil fuel phaseout policies. Whether the concept actually moves actors towards p... 020
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 04/03/2026We will host the Global Conference on Environmental Taxation this year in #Berlin. Please send us your abstracts until April 15th. More info and how to apply at www.gcet27.de 021
Reposted by Jan Christoph SteckelCESifo @cesifo.org · 08/01/2026⏰New Paper! "The Economics of a Just Transition" ✍️ Ireri Hernandez Carballo, Elena Verdolini @jansteckel.bsky.social Massimo Tavoni & Francesco Vona This paper links debates about a 'just transition' with findings from environmental economics: 🔗 www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/pu... 031
Reposted by Jan Christoph SteckelLauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 25/11/2025China's official news agency Xinhua puts the country's coal peak at "around 2027" and oil peak "around 2026", also referencing the commitment to "gradually reduce" coal consumption that has been missing from recent policy papers. 16918
Reposted by Jan Christoph SteckelDave Keating @davekeating.substack.com · 15/11/2025Diplomatically unprecedented. The German far-right opposition has reportedly been invited to Washington for an official strategy session with Republicans in the US Congress.politico.euLarge far-right German delegation to visit Washington, Trump ally saysThe invitation to the capital comes as Alternative for Germany politicians seek to build closer ties to the U.S. government. 18207162
Reposted by Jan Christoph SteckelJan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 10/11/2025🚨Job Alert 🚨 Interested in working with us @pik-potsdam.bsky.social (Berlin based RD5, formerly MCC)? We are looking for a new #PhD student in my team, working on #policyevaluation, #politicaleconomy and #development. 3 years funded. Focus on research. No teaching obligations. More information 👇 096
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 12/11/2025We published a new @cesifo.org working paper today. Based on a new dataset covering >1.5 M households from 88 countries we analyse why households are affected and how they could be compensated effectively using detailed HH level information&ML. Check it out here 👇 www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/pu... 020
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 10/11/2025🚨Job Alert 🚨 Interested in working with us @pik-potsdam.bsky.social (Berlin based RD5, formerly MCC)? We are looking for a new #PhD student in my team, working on #policyevaluation, #politicaleconomy and #development. 3 years funded. Focus on research. No teaching obligations. More information 👇 096
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 05/11/2025We're looking for 1-2 new research assistants in my group @pik-potsdam.bsky.social. Mostly interesting for Berlin-based students. Pls apply before November 23rd. 021
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 05/11/20258/ In other words — this isn’t just analysis of language; it’s analysis of the run-up to transition decisions. Understanding discourse is understanding transition timing. Read the paper #openaccess here: doi.org/10.1016/j.er... \enddoi.orgRedirecting 030
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 05/11/20257/ Why this matters beyond South Africa: we see discourse as part of policy sequencing. Before policies shift, narratives shift. Discourses shape what becomes politically thinkable, when coalitions emerge, and how “windows” for phase-out open (or close). 120
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 05/11/20256/ Media space is dominated by Eskom, political elites, and major coal firms. Civil society, labour, and international actors appear far less. Sentiment toward mining and “transition politics” is generally positive — reinforcing continuity over disruption. 110
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 05/11/20255/ Renewables are framed largely as grid relief, not replacement for coal. Carbon-management technologies (CCS, hydrogen, offsets, “clean coal”) often appear as future-fix narratives that sustain incumbency. Explicit coal-exit discourse is rare — except briefly around the #JETP announcement. 110
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 05/11/20254/ The core insight: coal remains discursively entrenched. Coverage centres on mining, politics, and the energy crisis — not coal phase-out. “Transition” language rises, but is mostly tied to crisis response and technology narratives, rather than structural change. 120
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 05/11/20253/ We combine dynamic topic modelling, named-entity recognition, and sentence-level sentiment analysis, supported by careful manual reading and validation. This lets us track not just what is being said over time, but who says it and in what tone - without losing interpretive depth. 110
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 05/11/20252/ We analyse ~8,000 national news articles (2010–2024) to understand how South Africa’s #coal transition is narrated — and what that reveals about #power, #politics, and pathways for change. 110
Jan Christoph Steckel @jansteckel.bsky.social · 05/11/2025🚨Excited to share our new paper "Dirty talk: Media discourse and the struggle over South Africa’s coal transition", published today in #ERSS @elseviersej.bsky.social with my great @pik-potsdam.bsky.social colleagues Charlotte S. Bez and Giacomo Raederscheidt. A quick thread 🧵1/ 194
Reposted by Jan Christoph SteckelEAERE @eaere.bsky.social · 05/09/2025🌎 We are glad to announce the 𝗘𝗔𝗘𝗥𝗘 𝗩𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗺𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 which provides financial assistance for a visiting period ranging from a minimum of 3 months to a maximum of one year at a university or research institute abroad #VisitingProgramme #environmentaleconomics #careersupport #PhD #postdoc 122
Reposted by Jan Christoph SteckelCESifo @cesifo.org · 13/08/2025🎓 Say hello to our newest network member, @jansteckel.bsky.social , from Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)! Learn more about his work in climate policy and economics: www.pik-potsdam.de/members/stec... More Details: www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/ne... 051