iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Peter Hull

Stephen Nuñez @socio-steve.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Why do you continue to doubt old BLUE? OLS is there for you. OLS will always be there for you

Reposted by Peter Hull

Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

If you opined on the NHJ op-ed (from any direction), I recommend this truth bomb of a paper pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...

Race and the Mismeasure of School Quality*
By JoSHUA ANGRIST, PETER HULL, PARAG A. PATHAK, AND CHRISTOPHER R. WALTERS*
In large urban districts, schools enrolling more White students tend to have higher performance ratings. We use an instrumental variables strategy leveraging centralized school assignment to explore this rela-tionship. Estimates from Denver and New York City suggest that the correlation between school performance ratings and White enrollment shares reflects selection bias rather than causal school value added.
In fact, value added in these two cities is essentially unrelated to White enrollment shares. A simple regression adjustment is shown to yield school ratings uncorrelated with race while predicting value added as well as or better than the corresponding unadjusted measures.
(JEL H75, 121, 124, 128, J15)

05411

Reposted by Peter Hull

turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

peter hull comparing TWFE and modern DIDs & it seems TWFE is OK. people will go "YOU SEE IT DIDN'T MATTER AFTER ALL" but regardless of whether TWFE is ultimately useful or not that all DiD chaos was a net good because it clarified the estimand. tinyurl.com/twfevsdid

Two-Way Fixed Effects and Modern Difference-in-Differences: An Empirical Comparison

Peter Hull, Brown University
8 October 2026

This note compares two-way fixed effects (TWFE) estimates from top general-interest journals in economics with estimates from the group-time difference-in-differences estimator of Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021; CSA) and the imputation estimator of Borusyak, Jaravel, and Spiess (2024; BJS). We use recovered observation-level data and focus on binary treatments with staggered adoption. Sign reversals are relatively rare, and especially so with statistically significant differences.

67016

Reposted by Peter Hull

NBER @nber.org · 21/09/2026

Firms differ in their orientation toward employee well-being. Workers who move to firms with higher well-being scores take more sickness absences, without changing healthcare usage, from Riccardo Di Francesco, @instrumenthull.bsky.social, and Seetha Menon www.nber.org/papers/w35760

033

Reposted by Peter Hull

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 29/08/2026

No, but we really do need a good article contrasting the differences. @instrumenthull.bsky.social and @borusyak.bsky.social 's nice AEA P&P has a very clean simple example discussing weighting differences in design vs. model based regression: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/gfvv9...

dropbox.com

0113

Reposted by Peter Hull

Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

We propose an algorithm for building efficient recentered IVs. While simulated IVs for Medicaid eligibility discard individual variation as non-random, our recentered IVs preserve it and deliver much more precise estimates. @instrumenthull.bsky.social, @borusyak.bsky.social buff.ly/H1JYjlX

11710

Reposted by Peter Hull

NBER @nber.org · 23/08/2026

A minimax justification for independent, rather than complete, randomization in experiments, from @instrumenthull.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w35629

076

Peter Hull @instrumenthull.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

We're hiring! Come work at either Brown economics or jointly in Econ + the new Watson public policy school at the (experienced) assistant, associate, or full professor level Target date for applications is Sep 7. EJM links: econjobmarket.org/positions/12... and econjobmarket.org/positions/12...

econjobmarket.org

EJM - Econ Job Market

0127

Reposted by Peter Hull

NBER @nber.org · 10/08/2026

Planning a spillover experiment? Proposing designs that can dramatically boost effective sample size by optimally correlating the treatment assignments of network-connected units, from Kirill Borusyak, @instrumenthull.bsky.social, and Evan M. Munro www.nber.org/papers/w35570

073

Reposted by Peter Hull

arXiv econ.EM Econometrics @econem-bot.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

Kirill Borusyak, Peter Hull, Evan Munro: Robust Signal Maximization in Spillover Experiments arxiv.org/abs/2607.18601 arxiv.org/pdf/2607.18601 arxiv.org/html/2607.18601

052

Reposted by Peter Hull

Noam Angrist @noamangrist.bsky.social · 24/05/2026

So proud to celebrate my father, Josh Angrist, at his Festschrift -- a gathering of people and presentations in honor of his career and legacy. He has influenced so many: generations of Angrists and a rockstar student family tree. An impressive array of causal effects!

2252

Peter Hull @instrumenthull.bsky.social · 23/05/2026

Robert, are methods papers welcome?

120

Reposted by Peter Hull

Prof Dynarski @dynarski.bsky.social · 22/05/2026

This is lovely An Angrist family tree

1434

Reposted by Peter Hull

Prof Dynarski @dynarski.bsky.social · 22/05/2026

Day-long nerd-fest at MIT in honor of the life and work of Josh Angrist, my grad school advisor A wonderful turnout of Josh’s colleagues, students, grandstudents, great-grandstudents…

5956

Reposted by Peter Hull

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 15/04/2026

Redid my leniency design IV slides based on the paper for JEP that Peter Hull, Michal Kolesar and I wrote: github.com/paulgp/appli... arxiv.org/abs/2511.03572

0335

Peter Hull @instrumenthull.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

They should all be linked on the Chamberlain site

020

Peter Hull @instrumenthull.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

Very excited for this Friday's Chamberlain Online Seminar, where we'll muse about "The Future of Econometrics." Check out this panelist lineup! Friday 3/27 at Noon ET. Come see! t.co/pE1gZCMI7a

24411

Reposted by Peter Hull

NBER @nber.org · 24/02/2026

Price counterfactuals can be nonparametrically identified without exogenous product characteristics, given exogenous shocks to prices, from Kirill Borusyak, Jiafeng Chen, @instrumenthull.bsky.social, and Lihua Lei www.nber.org/papers/w34842

052

Reposted by Peter Hull

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 17/11/2025

New paper with @instrumenthull.bsky.social and Michal Kolesár on leniency/judge IV designs. This article is targeted for the Journal of Economic Perspectives, and so we wrote it with the goal of being accessible to a wide range of users, including advanced undergrads!🧵 arxiv.org/abs/2511.03572

45215

Reposted by Peter Hull

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 17/11/2025

We also show, (as @instrumenthull.bsky.social loves to show!), that UJIVE can be used to assess the compiler characteristics of the leniency design. If the compliers look similar to the full sample on observables, that's evidence your treatment effects may generalize beyond the complier population.

132

Reposted by Peter Hull

NBER @nber.org · 18/11/2025

Developing a step-by-step guide to leniency designs, drawing on recent econometric literatures, from Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, @instrumenthull.bsky.social, and Michal Kolesár www.nber.org/papers/w34473

0227

Reposted by Peter Hull

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 13/11/2025

NBER grants to fund research into economic measurement - I find this agenda very compelling and important #linkoftheday www.nber.org/news/nber-la...

nber.org

NBER Launches Initiative on Economic Measurement

03317

Reposted by Peter Hull

Trevon Logan @trevondlogan.bsky.social · 12/11/2025

The NBER Race and Stratification Working Group will have its annual meeting on Friday, March 27, 2026. Francisca Antman, Bocar Ba, Robynn Cox and I are organizing the program. Submit your paper by the December 11, 2025 deadline! @nber.org #EconSky www.nber.org/conferences/...

nber.org

Economics of Race and Stratification, Spring 2026

03218

Reposted by Peter Hull

WeRateDAGs @weratedags.com · 17/10/2025

We couldn't not rate this classic early DAG by our beloved collective granddagy, Sewall Wright. 14/10. Ten for the DAG, plus one for each cute guinea-pig node. From Wright (1920) "The Relative Importance of Heredity and Environment in Determining the Piebald Pattern of Guinea-Pigs"

Why are guinea-pigs the colours they are? Sewall's got a DAG for that.

110032

Reposted by Peter Hull

arXiv econ.EM Econometrics @econem-bot.bsky.social · 06/11/2025

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Peter Hull, Michal Koles\'ar: Leniency Designs: An Operator's Manual arxiv.org/abs/2511.03572 arxiv.org/pdf/2511.03572 arxiv.org/html/2511.03572

044

Reposted by Peter Hull

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 06/11/2025

Excited to post a new working paper with @instrumenthull.bsky.social and Michal Kolesár: arxiv.org/abs/2511.03572 Will post a thread on it soon, but if you're interested in judge/examiner designs, I think you'll find this guide very helpful!

arxiv.org

Leniency Designs: An Operator's Manual

We develop a step-by-step guide to leniency (a.k.a. judge or examiner instrument) designs, drawing on recent econometric literatures. The unbiased jackknife instrumental variables estimator (UJIVE) is...

04011

Reposted by Peter Hull

John Cawley @johncawley.bsky.social · 13/10/2025

Zero new jobs in the federal government posted on JOE in the past three weeks. Not surprising given the government shutdown (which began Oct 1), but still grim. At least two-thirds fewer such jobs posted in 2025 than in each of the past six years at this time. #econjobmarket

1125

Peter Hull @instrumenthull.bsky.social · 13/10/2025

Thanks BeNA (and Berlin) for a great few days!

170

Reposted by Peter Hull

BeNA @berlinlabor.bsky.social · 01/09/2025

📢 Save the date! Join the BeNA Lecture Series with Peter Hull (Brown University) on Shift-Share & Recentered IV 📅 Oct 9–10, 2025 📍 DIW Berlin Deep dive into modern econometric methods + a research talk + office hours. Register by Sep 25, 2025! labor-research.net/2025/08/29/b...

labor-research.net

BeNA Lecture Series on Shift-Share and Recentered IV with Peter Hull - Berliner Netzwerk Arbeitsmarktforschung

Date: October 9–10, 2025 Location: DIW Berlin (Room: Elinor-Ostrom-Hall), Anton-Wilhelm-Amo-Straße 58, 10117 Berlin The Berlin Network of Labor Market Research (BeNA) is pleased to announce a lecture ...

053

Reposted by Peter Hull

Peter Hull @instrumenthull.bsky.social · 26/09/2025

My coauthors and I are hiring a project coordinator for new research on an innovative jail-based rehabilitation paper (IGNITE), building on our recent QJE Apply at careersearch.stanford.edu/jobs/project...

01010

Peter Hull @instrumenthull.bsky.social · 26/09/2025

01010

Reposted by Peter Hull

Peter Hull @instrumenthull.bsky.social · 26/09/2025

Come hear what Larry Katz, Xavier D'Haultfoeuille, Kei Hirano, Francesca Molinari, and Andres Santos think about publishing econometrics in general interest journals! Tomorrow's Chamberlain Seminar: 12pm ET

1186

Peter Hull @instrumenthull.bsky.social · 26/09/2025

1186

Reposted by Peter Hull

Peter Hull @instrumenthull.bsky.social · 03/09/2025

New 'Metrics Note! "One weird trick" to characterize compliers / the effective population underlying design-based OLS & IV specifications Check it out: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/lgba6...

44712

Reposted by Peter Hull

Peter Hull @instrumenthull.bsky.social · 08/09/2025

The Chamberlain Seminar continues this semester with two exciting online sessions on 9/26 & 10/31! Check out the details below and click below to join our mailing list! mailman.stanford.edu/mailman/list...

273

Peter Hull @instrumenthull.bsky.social · 08/09/2025

273

Peter Hull @instrumenthull.bsky.social · 03/09/2025

New 'Metrics Note! "One weird trick" to characterize compliers / the effective population underlying design-based OLS & IV specifications Check it out: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/lgba6...

44712