iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

I’m back on my student stomping grounds at @lsedatascience.bsky.social for the Global Forum for #AI and the Social Sciences. It is livestreamed so you can sign up: www.lse.ac.uk/global-ai-fo.... I’m speaking tomorrow on a panel on policy responses to AI.

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Thanks! Displacement only happens if the cost is worth it. The intelligence capital margin moves exogenously and everything else adjusts to follow; this is a simplification meant to represent the advances of the technology. Do you have any suggestions for robustness analysis?

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Colin Camerer @cfcamerer.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

A v cool paper providing a useful framework. ”In the central case, automation in the intelligence sector is completed after 6.9y, reaching its ceiling of 87%, at which point automation-driven unemployment reaches 8.4% (and average worker income fell by 5.8% relative to 2024“

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

I've just posted a new preliminary paper: “Calibrating AI automation and its labor market impacts.” AI-driven labor automation is endogenous and tied to the accumulation of AI capital, using data-center and hyperscaler investment to discipline its growth. #EconSky papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

papers.ssrn.com

Calibrating AI automation and its labor market impacts

We are early in the latest AI technological revolution, and there are vastly different projections circulating about the impact of AI on the labor market; most

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

What’s the future of US workforce policy in the age of AI? Joining @beyer.house.gov (Congressional AI Caucus co-Chair) and Dmitri Adler, Merav Yuravlivker, and Jack Malde for a Hill briefing on May 13. Register: luma.com/xvloy4tl

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Cary Coglianese @cary-coglianese.bsky.social · 02/05/2026

Now on YouTube: a Penn-led conversation on Trump’s National Policy Framework for AI, with Ioanna Marinescu, Jennifer Rothman, Kevin Werbach, & Christopher Yoo. youtu.be/r6gNVIZ47d8 @imarinescu.bsky.social @kwerb.com @upenn.edu @theregreview.bsky.social @penncareylaw.bsky.social

youtu.be

Trump's AI Policy Framework

YouTube video by Penn Program on Regulation

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

Join us at Penn this Friday April 24 for a discussion of "Social Good in the Age of #AI: Disruption & Possibility": ai.upenn.edu/social-good-...

ai.upenn.edu

Social Good in the Age of AI: Disruption & Possibility

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

🎉I'll be promoted to full professor at the University of Pennsylvania School of Social Policy & Practice, effective July 2026! Grateful for of the many people who've helped and challenged me along the way. Now off to work on #AI and its impact on the economy, society, & policy!

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

Exciting funding opportunity for #AI economics research! The call focuses on labor market impacts & scientific productivity. Apply to this RFP. As a program partner, I am excited to learn about your work while reviewing your applications! schmidtsciences.smapply.io/prog/ai_at_w...

schmidtsciences.smapply.io

AI at Work - 2026 Call for Expressions of Interest - Schmidt Sciences

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Ben Waber @bwaber.bsky.social · 05/03/2026

Next was a compelling panel on antitrust and labor with Rosa M. Morales, Suresh Naidu, @imarinescu.bsky.social, @evanpstarr.bsky.social, and Jonathan Guryan www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1V6... (7/9)

youtube.com

Market Power in Transition Conference: Antitrust and Labor

YouTube video by Columbia Business School

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

As @KordingLab and I argue, it is much cheaper to replace humans in the intelligence than in the physical domain. #AI

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

Everyone's excited about robot fry cooks. But here's what I told @fortune.com: the question isn't whether we can automate restaurant kitchens — it's whether it's worth it economically. Robot hardware costs are declining far slower than AI software costs. fortune.com/2026/02/26/r...

fortune.com

Meet your new robot fry cooks: Inside the $28 billion race to disrupt White Castle and Jack in the Box | Fortune

Miso Robotics’ Flippy slung chicken tenders and Tater Tots at Dodger Stadium, and CEO Rich Hull has bigger ambitions for the tech.

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

For the longer version: my Digitalist Papers essay proposes two complementary policies: 1️⃣ AI Adjustment Insurance 2️⃣ Digital Dividend; a scalable cash benefit starting small but ready to grow if needed. Flexible tools for an uncertain transition. 🔗 digitalistpapers.com/vol2/marinescu

digitalistpapers.com

Resilient by Design: Dual Safety Nets for Workers in the AI Economy — Digitalist Papers

How can we respond to the impact of transformative AI on the labor market? In this essay, Ioana Marinescu sets out a two-tiered response, recognizing the immense uncertainty about what lies ahead: “ad...

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

UK minister floats UBI to cushion AI job losses. I weighed in Fortune. My take: we need safety nets that scale with uncertainty. But will AI's winners support redistribution once they've won? 🔗 fortune.com/2026/02/01/elon-musk-optional-work-fantasy-universal-basic-income-uk-minister-jason-stockwood

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 15/01/2026

“In my mind, I see like little marbles or something,” Marinescu said. “It's like, plop, plop, plop, plop. Widget, widget, widget, widget.” That's my very smart quote in this @marketplace.org episode about productivity measurement #EconSky www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...

marketplace.org

How do "widgets" fit into our services-based economy?

Widgets are a general stand-in for any produced good. But how do we think about widgets when goods are only a fraction of what we produce?

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 14/01/2026

The impact of AI on the labor market seen through the computational neuroscience lens 👇. Our Brookings paper is now posted on SSRN.

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 03/01/2026

Welcome to #ASSA2026 in my home town! Please say hi if you see me in the corridors 😊! I look forward to seeing some of you tonight at the LERA research panel & reception w. Jared Bernstein @ericagroshen.bsky.social @darrickhamilton.bsky.social #EconSky

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 12/12/2025

I am honored to be part of The Digitalist Papers, Volume 2 (www.digitalistpapers.com), 21 essays exploring the implications of the transformative economic power of artificial intelligence, setting the stage for change comparable to the Industrial Revolution but with far greater speed and scope.

digitalistpapers.com

Digitalist Papers

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 12/12/2025

How can we respond to the impact of transformative #AI on the labor market? In this Digitalist Paper, I propose: AI “adjustment insurance” (AI-AI) to help workers with transitory job losses, and a “digital dividend” to support those permanently without work. www.digitalistpapers.com/vol2/marinescu

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

Got my @econ5k.bsky.social T-shirt, #EconSky, and you should too if you're an econ runner! I hope to see you in Philly in January #ASSA2026 sites.google.com/view/econ5k/...

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

Your truly on Musk’s post-work society prediction. fortune.com/2025/11/20/e...

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 19/11/2025

Good morning, chilly Amherst! Looking forward to my talk today on #AI saturation & the future of work, and to seeing dear colleagues & meeting new ones! #AcademicLife

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FAR.AI @far.ai · 18/11/2025

It's a wrap on the AGI Journalism Workshop in D.C., co-hosted with the Tarbell Center for AI Journalism. ▸ AGI timelines, jobs, misalignment, U.S.–China policy & regulation ▸ @hlntnr.bsky.social, @akorinek.bsky.social, @imarinescu.bsky.social, @gleave.me, @alexbores.nyc, @deanwb.bsky.social + more

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

Takeaways: 👉#AI returns saturate if physical lags 👉Wages often rise & fall as intelligence automates 👉Wage declines require shrinking intelligence-job share 👉Policy: pace deployment + invest in physical capacity; don’t bet on a “singularity”

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

Result 4 (simulation). Here we simulate adding more AI, during and after automation. (1) Wage effects of adding more AI saturate. (2) Higher substitutability between physical and intelligence can lead to wage declines during automation but allows for unbounded wage growth post-automation.

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

Result 3 (simulation):when intelligence and physical are more substitutable, automation of intelligence has a larger positive effect on output. ➡️What’s better for workers’ wages is worse for output, trade-offs.

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

Result 2 (simulation): when intelligence and physical are more substitutable, automation of intelligence has a more positive wage effect early on but a more negative effect later. ➡️Cautionary tale, early wage gains may not persist!

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

Result 1: as automation of intelligence by #AI progresses, output increases and there’s an increase in the share of workers in the physical sector \beta (i.e., in person work, including e.g. cooking, teaching and surgery).

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

Model: Output is produced with intelligence and physical sectors (CES), each powered by humans and capital (AI is the capital in the intelligence sector). Labor optimally reallocates between physical and intelligence to maximize wages.

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

Is intelligence saturation plausible? (1) More intelligent people are not proportionately more successful. (2) Adding more scientific researchers yields lower and lower additional output (3) Prior tech (ICT) revolution had limited growth impacts.

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

Why distinguish physical and intelligence? Intelligence saturation: intelligence can make physical inputs maximally efficient, but the impact saturates. ➡️Physical and intelligence sectors are complements, you need more of both to increase output.

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

We've made an interactive tool you can play with to see how wages would evolve with automation & with adding exponentially more #AI, depending on parameters of your choice. Have fun (but maybe read the paper first 😈)! intelligencesaturation.org

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

New @brookings.edu paper w. @kordinglab.bsky.social : Artificial Intelligence Saturation & the Future of Work. Wages can ↗️&↘️with #AI automation, as humans are pushed into physical jobs. In the longer run, intelligence saturation limits benefits from #AI. www.brookings.edu/articles/art... #EconSky

brookings.edu

(Artificial) Intelligence saturation and the future of work | Brookings

In a new working paper, UPenn's Konrad Kording and Ioana Marinescu present a novel framework for assessing AI and the future of work

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 29/10/2025

#AI research fellow job at Schmidt Sciences. You can take it as a year of leave from your university too. One of the areas of focus is AI’s impact on the labor market #EconSky 👇

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 15/10/2025

Listen to our conversation on competition and #monopsony in the labor market, and the #antitrust policy implications. I had a lot of fun talking to David Fisher from AAI, like we had to cut out some of the laughing 🤭. I hope you enjoy it as much as we did! www.antitrustinstitute.org/work-product...

antitrustinstitute.org

From Labor Market Theory to Antitrust Policy: A Conversation with Ioana Marinescu - American Antitrust Institute

On this episode of Ruled by Reason, AAI Senior Counsel David O. Fisher talks with leading economist Ioana Marinescu about the theoretical frameworks underpinning labor monopsony and how they apply … C...

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 14/10/2025

Nice to see our work covered here 👇

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 13/10/2025

Congratulations to my mentor and co-author Philippe Aghion!!!! His broad contributions to economics and boundless creative energy are truly inspiring.

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Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 25/09/2025

AI Acquihires: Competition Risks, Talent Battles and Economic Spillovers Webinar - 8 October @ 17:00 CEST 🗣️Jonathan Kanter @lugaricano.bsky.social @imarinescu.bsky.social @igorletina.bsky.social Hans Zenger Moderator: @florianederer.bsky.social Register: cepr.org/events/ai-ac... #EconSky

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 21/09/2025

Some context: I used to ask “what are you working on?” but I learned some people would rather not talk about it for various reasons. So the more general “what are you excited about in your field?” lets them EITHER talk about what they’re working on or some other interest.

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 21/09/2025

Fellow economists, what kind of question would you most like to be asked when meeting someone at a conference? #EconSky 1. What are your working on? 2. What is your field? 3. What is exciting in your field? 4. Other: spill the beans!

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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 16/09/2025

Common Ownership & Employee Earnings updated & improved Consider a pair of companies that sell into the same product market. If pair shares common owners, the owners have incentive for pair to soften competition. Same with local labor market competition papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Common Ownership and Employee Earnings *
José Azar Xin Dai Yue Qiu Aaron Sojourner
September 15, 2025
Abstract
Using administrative data in the manufacturing sector from the U.S. Census Bureau, this paper provides the first evidence on the effect of common ownership on
employee earnings. Using firms’ additions to the S&P 500 index as a shock to their
local competitors’ common ownership, we find that, after a same-industry competitor enters the S&P 500 index, the average employee earnings of S&P 500 incumbents
in the same local labor market decrease. Additionally, these firms’ employment increases. These findings are inconsistent with the canonical oligopsony models but our generalized model of oligopsony incorporating a recruitment intensity margin can rationalize them

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 11/07/2025

Proud to support @anthropic.com’s new Economic Futures Program as a member of their Economic Advisory Council! • Research grants up to $50,000 (rolling basis) • Policy proposal competition • Expanded Economic Index data access Apply: www.anthropic.com/economic-futures #AI #EconSky

anthropic.com

Anthropic Economic Futures

A multidisciplinary program funding research grants, policy development, and data infrastructure to help society understand and navigate AI's economic transformation.

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 11/07/2025

Also see this: bsky.app/profile/prof...

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 11/07/2025

There are no homogeneous blocks but loose webs of ideas and those in power pick and choose depending on the interests of the moment. Having a stronger broader web of ideas that have been tested through intellectual debate is useful.

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 11/07/2025

“Us vs. them” mentality is not the way to intellectual progress nor to a healthy democratic debate.👇

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Simon Jäger @simonjaeger.bsky.social · 11/07/2025

Very excited that our paper (joint with Jarkko Harju and ‪@schoefer.bsky.social‬) on "Voice at Work" is published in the American Economic Journal: Applied Economics. We study what happened when workers in Finnish firms got a right to worker voice on the corporate board. 👇

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Maximilian Kasy @maxkasy.bsky.social · 11/07/2025

🧨 New draft dropped:🧨 "Cash Transfers, Mental Health and Agency: Evidence from an RCT in Germany" maxkasy.github.io/home/files/p... Companion paper to our paper on basic income and labor supply. Corresponding author Freddie Schwerter (@freddieschwerter.bsky.social). #basicincome #UBI

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Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 08/07/2025

Yes, continuing unemployment claims are up, but the US labor market remains remarkably stable across most indicators in 2025. Context matters: this is a slight softening, not a crisis. My analysis in @Forbes.com explains the full picture www.forbes.com/sites/zachar... #EconSky

forbes.com

More Americans Staying On Unemployment Amid ‘Slight Slowdown’ Of Economy

Losses in service jobs sparked the first negative job growth in two years.

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