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Helen Toner

@hlntnr.bsky.social
1.5K followers 594 following 52 posts

AI, national security, China. Part of the founding team at @csetgeorgetown.bsky.social‬ (opinions my own). Author of Rising Tide on substack: helentoner.substack.com

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Reposted by Helen Toner
Rachel Coldicutt @rachelcoldicutt.bsky.social · 29/11/2025
This blog post by Helen Toner (well-known by some for a stint on the OpenAI board) is *really really* interesting because it is the first thing I've read by someone in Frontier AI that starts to get to grips with sociotechnical concerns open.substack.com/pub/helenton...
open.substack.com
Taking Jaggedness Seriously
Why we should expect AI capabilities to keep being extremely uneven, and why that matters
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Helen Toner @hlntnr.bsky.social · 17/10/2025
We're hiring! May be a good fit for you if you're excited about: * Working on frontier AI issues (specific examples in the job description) * Joining a team with a range of interests & expertise * Bringing data, evidence, & nuance to policy conversations about frontier AI Open until Nov 10:
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Helen Toner @hlntnr.bsky.social · 22/07/2025
AI companies are starting to build more and more personalization into their products, but there's a huge personalization-sized hole in conversations about AI safety/trust/impacts. Delighted to feature @mbogen.bsky.social on Rising Tide today, on what's being built and why we should care:
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Reposted by Helen Toner
Miranda Bogen @mbogen.bsky.social · 21/07/2025
AI companies are starting to promise personalized assistants that “know you.” We’ve seen this playbook before — it didn’t end well. In a guest post for @hlntnr.bsky.social’s Rising Tide, I explore how leading AI labs are rushing toward personalization without learning from social media’s mistakes
open.substack.com
Personalized AI is rerunning the worst part of social media's playbook
The incentives, risks, and complications of AI that knows you
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Helen Toner @hlntnr.bsky.social · 30/06/2025
Been thinking recently about how central "AI is just a tool" is to disagreements about the future of AI. Is it? Will it continue to be? Just posted a transcript from a talk where I go into this + a couple other key open qs/disagreements (not p(doom)!). 🔗 below, preview here:
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Helen Toner @hlntnr.bsky.social · 16/06/2025
2 weeks left on this open funding call on risks from internal deployments of frontier AI models—submissions are due June 30. Expressions of interest only need to be 1-2 pages, so still time to write one up! Full details: cset.georgetown.edu/wp-content/u...
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Helen Toner @hlntnr.bsky.social · 19/05/2025
💡Funding opportunity—share with your AI research networks💡 Internal deployments of frontier AI models are an underexplored source of risk. My program at @csetgeorgetown.bsky.social just opened a call for research ideas—EOIs due Jun 30. Full details ➡️ cset.georgetown.edu/wp-content/u... Summary ⬇️
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Helen Toner @hlntnr.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
Criticizing the AI safety community as anti-tech or anti-risktaking has always seemed off to me. But there *is* plenty to critique. My latest on Rising Tide (xposted with @aifrontiers.bsky.social!) is on the 1998 book that helped me put it into words. In short: it's about dynamism vs stasis.
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Helen Toner @hlntnr.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
New on Rising Tide, I break down 2 factors that will play a huge role in how much AI progress we see over the next couple years: verification & generalization. How well these go will determine if AI just gets super good at math & coding vs. mastering many domains. Post excerpts:
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Helen Toner @hlntnr.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
2 new podcast interviews out in the last couple weeks—one for more of a general audience, one more inside baseball. You can also pick your accent (I'm from Australia and sound that way when I talk to other Aussies, but mostly in professional settings I sound ~American)
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Helen Toner @hlntnr.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
Seems likely that at some point AI will make it much easier to hack critical infrastructure, create bioweapons, etc etc. Many argue that if so, a hardcore nonproliferation strategy is our only option. Rising Tide launch week post 3/3 is on why I disagree 🧵 helentoner.substack.com/p/nonprolife...
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Helen Toner @hlntnr.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
The idea of AI "alignment" seems increasingly confused—is it about content moderation or controlling superintelligence? Is it basically solved or wide open? Rising Tide #2 is about how we got here, and how the core problem is whether we can steer advanced AI at all.
helentoner.substack.com
The core challenge of AI alignment is “steerability”
"Steered to where" is a different question from "steerable at all"
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Helen Toner @hlntnr.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
Sharing the very first post on my new substack, about the weird boiling frog of AI timelines. Somehow expecting human-level systems in the 2030s is now a conservative take? 2 more posts to come this week, then a slower pace. Subscribe, tell your friends! helentoner.substack.com/p/long-timel...
helentoner.substack.com
"Long" timelines to advanced AI have gotten crazy short
The prospect of reaching human-level AI in the 2030s should be jarring
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Reposted by Helen Toner
CSET @csetgeorgetown.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
⭐️New Report⭐️ Using AI to make military decisions? CSET’s @emmyprobasco.bsky.social, @hlntnr.bsky.social, Matthew Burtell, and @timrudner.bsky.social analyze the advantages and risks of AI for military decisionmaking. cset.georgetown.edu/publication/...
cset.georgetown.edu
AI for Military Decision-Making | Center for Security and Emerging Technology
Artificial intelligence is reshaping military decision-making. This concise overview explores how AI-enabled systems can enhance situational awareness and accelerate critical operational decisions—eve...
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Helen Toner @hlntnr.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
New short paper from Kendrea Beers and me - 2 case studies of @openmined.bsky.social's great work giving researchers/auditors/etc access to test privately held AI models. Thread with more on the two successful pilots below. Paper is here: arxiv.org/abs/2502.05219
arxiv.org
Enabling External Scrutiny of AI Systems with Privacy-Enhancing Technologies
This article describes how technical infrastructure developed by the nonprofit OpenMined enables external scrutiny of AI systems without compromising sensitive information. Independent external scru...
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Helen Toner @hlntnr.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
Lately it sometimes feels like there are only 2 AI futures on the table—insanely fast progress or total stagnation. Talked with @axios.com's Alison Snyder at SXSW about the many in-between worlds, and all the things we can be doing now to help things go better in those worlds.
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Helen Toner @hlntnr.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
New podcast ep! Had fun talking US-China competition, military AI, and more with @spencrgreenberg.bsky.social: podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/251/... Even spent a few min at the end on something I rarely get to ramble about: what I've learned about relating to humans from working with horses🐴
podcast.clearerthinking.org
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Helen Toner @hlntnr.bsky.social · 13/01/2025
Due in 2 days (!): comments on v2 of the EU's draft Code of Practice for general-purpose AI. For anyone else who'd find it helpful, here's a side-by-side comparison with v1: draftable.com/compare/NNBy... One snap take: the rewritten taxonomy of systemic risks (p29) is much stronger.
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Helen Toner @hlntnr.bsky.social · 31/12/2024
Happy almost-2025! 🎇 To ring in the new year, here's a short thread with some things I read recently that I've found myself coming back to:
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Helen Toner @hlntnr.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
Probably time to break the ice and post something here, huh. Hi Bluesky! I'm on parental leave so not really doing social media, but Fast Company profiled me today and that was nice: www.fastcompany.com/91237841/hel... And I'll drop some of my recent work below 🧵:
fastcompany.com
Helen Toner's OpenAI exit only made her a more powerful force for responsible AI
She’s become a trusted voice for global policymakers seeking to mitigate the transformative technology’s biggest risks.
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