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Guy Bailey

@guybailey.bsky.social
1.6K followers 2.7K following 4.2K posts

Can see around corners. Was a gift, it's now a curse. Writer, Stoic, Socialist, Dad, Gamer, Curmudgeon, Antifa, Karen. @Boro @RedcarBears @AtlantaFalcons @F1

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Mark @wils.bsky.social · 43m
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Kevin M. Kruse @kevinmkruse.bsky.social · 2h
🚨BREAKING: Claude has a feature called Friend Mode. It helps you pretend like you're not a goddamn loser who needs AI to interact with the outside world.
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Cold War Steve @coldwarsteve.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
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Scarred For Life Books @scarredforlife.bsky.social · 5h
A huge thank you to everyone who came to our Scarred For Life Unplanned show at Burnley Library last night! Me and @bobfischer.bsky.social had a great time listening to your scars and spooky stories. And it was lovely to meet the organisers, David and Holly from Northern Folklore Archive!
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Will Cooling @willcooling.bsky.social · 7h
This is undoubtedly true and I think a lot of companies have bet heavily on IP on the mistaken understanding that there are "forever" characters or acts, when they're subject to quite rapid decay.
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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 14h
This is now a sycophancy test. Joking about it I’ll accept, barely, but anyone who even remotely indulges this is a coward
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archivetvmusings @archivetvmusings.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
'Arrival', the first episode of The Prisoner, debuted in the UK on this day in 1967 in selected ITV regions.
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Party penguins arts & crafts @partypenguins.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Middlesbrough in pen/pencil finished I will be taking a break to do a commission piece but after that will be 22/92 Burton albion #Boro #UTB #football #the92 #art
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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 29/09/2026
Based on my own reporting on OpenAI's audited financials from 2025, it appears that Anthropic was a worse business (at least in that year), spending $2.75 make $1 versus OpenAI spending $2.60 to make $1. So many people told me this company was "more profitable"! www.wheresyoured.at/exclusive-op...
OpenAl Lost $38.5 Billion In 2025
2025 — OpenAl Had $13.07 Billion In Revenue, $34 Billion In Costs and Expenses, and $20.92 Billion In Losses, with a net loss attributable to the company of $38.53 Billion
• Revenue: $13.07 billion
• Cost of Revenue: $7.5 billion
• Research and Development: $19.18 billion
• Sales and Marketing: $5.73 billion
• General and Administrative: $1.57 Billion
• Total Costs and Expenses: $34 billion
• Loss from Operations: $20.92 billionThe Al lab spent $7.33 billion on compute and infrastructure last year, a threefold surge from 2024, accounting for more than half of its
$12.65 billion in total operating expenses.
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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 29/09/2026
So far the only retort from the AI boosters appears to be “2025 doesn’t matter” and I’m not kidding
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Michael Warburton @michaelwarburton.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
In 1956 the late great PETER CUSHING invited a film crew into his Kensington home to show off his hobby — painting miniature toy soldiers, and playing with them in the rules set down by fellow toy soldier hobbyist H.G. Wells.
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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
It will never not be wild to me that the Russians attacked Keir Starmer's home, successfully spread falsehoods about Starmer's love life, and this didn't changed British politics and British political elite behaviour *at all*.
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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 28/09/2026
make no mistake: anyone telling you AI is “just like the dot com bubble” or “just like Amazon web services or uber” is beyond misinformed, verging into the realms of actually wanting to know less about the world. It means they have never actually looked at any of the numbers. Or they can’t count.
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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 28/09/2026
These data centers are financial poison even if you bought them cheap. The returns are awful, the debt is toxic, the ongoing opex is nasty because of the cost of cooling and the power demands, and 30% gross margins requires near-perfect conditions and constant revenue for 5+ years.
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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 28/09/2026
Everyone keeps reaching for the “too big to fail” button because it is fundamentally harder for them to imagine what happens if it’s too big to succeed. The unique conditions in play make a bailout impossible. This is also an ideological bubble to the point I think it creates a schism in society.
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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 28/09/2026
The level of financial misalignment is as bad as I’ve been warning, and you’re going to see headline after headline of stuff I’ve said in the newsletter for years. I say this with both pride and sadness because being right is going to be many layers of horrible.
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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 28/09/2026
It’s just a matter of time now, and mostly a matter of when the money runs out. There is no future for Anthropic or OpenAI at their current scale. Hyperscalers need $308bn of annual ai revenue - around the revenue of Microsoft - for 10% return on 2026 and 2027 capex. Could be more with cost of debt.
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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 28/09/2026
AI has lost the Mandate of Heaven I’m afraid. WSJ saying it’s a “when” the ai bubble bursts. SNL dabbing on their biggest names for being weird. FT says 50% of chips sold in 2026 and 2027 have nowhere to go. Hundreds of billions short on revenue for even 10% ROIC. A disaster.
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Vaun Earl Norman @vaun.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Are you a Doyle. Do you know someone who is a Doyle. This man is a Doyle , please help him before it's too late. gofund.me/28b75a5c6 Sound on
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Mike Eliason @holz-bau.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
chat is this good?
all construction dropping massively.
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Scarred For Life Books @scarredforlife.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
My Scarred For Life Patreon has 16 brand-new SFL essays, 5 Show and Tell videos featuring page-by-page looks at books and annuals, and 5 episodes of my SFL Bunker Show podcast! And there's new stuff every Wednesday at 9am! Join the lovely community over there... Link: bit.ly/4yl2ihl
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Brian Groom @groomb.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
The Stockton and Darlington Railway, the world's first public railway to use steam locomotives, opened on this day 1825. Its first line linked collieries near Shildon with Darlington and Stockton. (Painting of opening day by Terence Cuneo, 1949, National Railway Museum.)
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George Monbiot @georgemonbiot.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Pope Innocent III,who died in 1216, spoke of a certain kind of older man, who is "easily provoked", "will believe anything and question nothing", is "stingy and greedy" and "praises the good old days and hates the present." Reform UK's voter base has been knocking around for a very long time.
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Mrs. Betty Bowers @mrsbettybowers.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
The major platforms—Facebook, YouTube, and X—are all refusing to show the trailer for the upcoming documentary that eviscerates the ridiculous pest Elon Musk. So I guess we have to do our part to make sure it is seen. www.youtube.com/watch?v=eY_8...
youtube.com
Musk | Official Trailer | Bleecker Street
YouTube video by Musk
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Parody Nigel Farage @parodypm.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Racist organisation set up by a racist to appeal to racists is somehow being taken over by racists.
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Laura Helmuth @laurahelmuth.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Not everybody knows this, and everybody should. On Sept. 26, 1983, a Soviet nuclear warning system alerted Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov that the U.S. had launched a missile attack. He did not retaliate, preventing WWIII. This is a post about AI. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanisl...
en.wikipedia.org
Stanislav Petrov - Wikipedia
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Tom Nichols @radiofreetom.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Nobody knew. Highly classified failure of the Soviet warning system kept under wraps for years. Happy Almost Nuclear War Day, for those who celebrate
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Guy Bailey @guybailey.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Jumping Jesus in a pogo stick
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Guy Bailey @guybailey.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
I've been looking for a new podcast as well. One that's guaranteed to last 20 years seems a good bargain. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Newcastle friends embark on 20-year board game battle
James Purcell and Andy Taeger are confident their friendship will survive the test.
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Guy Bailey @guybailey.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Well we hoped to make it to October but we've admitted defeat and the pipes are on.
static.klipy.com
Leipzig Leipziger Heizung
ALT: Leipzig Leipziger Heizung
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Richard M. Nixon @dicknixon.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
I think I more or less said once that the current Pope is the guy you invite to the barbecue. He comes out of collar, has a drink with you. Maybe more than one. You play cards, maybe put some friendly bets on the ballgame. In the United States today that is a powerful thing.
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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 25/09/2026
Analysts from UBS, Barclays and Wells Fargo expect — by which I mean they are setting expectations — that Anthropic and OpenAI will account for at least $444 billion of hyperscaler earnings in the next three years. Without that spend, the revenue isn't there. www.wheresyoured.at/concentratio....
As I mentioned in my premium from a few weeks ago (How Much Money Does AI Need?), analysts from UBS, Barclays and Wells Fargo expect — by which I mean they are setting expectations — that Anthropic and OpenAI will account for at least $444 billion of hyperscaler earnings in the next three years.

To be specific, I pulled together all the numbers from my AI Demand Bubble newsletter from a few weeks ago, and found that Anthropic and OpenAI will account for at least $365 billion in revenue across Fiscal Years 2026, 2027, and 2028.

Sidenote: Except this analysis is only partially complete, as it’s based on Wells Fargo’s single Fiscal Year 2027 estimate of a $52.5 billion expected contribution from OpenAI and Anthropic. One weakness of this analysis is that we’re talking about Microsoft’s Fiscal Year 2027, which actually began in the middle of 2026. Most other hyperscalers (including Amazon, Meta, and Google) align their financial years with the calendar years. Nevertheless, I think it’s fairly illustrative of the problem.
To estimate the contribution — and be incredibly fair! — I have assumed OpenAI and Anthropic’s Microsoft spend will be linear (at $52.5 billion) across fiscal year 2028, and then halved it for fiscal year 2029, which gets us to a grand total of $444 billion.

That spike in costs comes from Stephen Ju of UBS’ estimates, and even if you think that’s a little high, I would estimate that the $250 billion of commitments made by OpenAI alone on Microsoft Azure will likely mean Microsoft is expecting tens of billions more than $52.5 billion in FY27 and beyond.

I also need to express how much more money this is than these companies are already spending on compute.

In 2025, OpenAI spent (per my own reporting, assuming 50% of sales and marketing was compute expenses) a little over $29.5 billion on compute. Per The Information’s reporting, it spent $12.1 billion (with no affordance for sales and marketing) in the first quarter of 2026, and while we don’t know how much it spent in Q2 (when revenues grew by $1 billion quarter-over-quarter), it’s fair to assume that it’ll spend another $12 billion or so a quarter for the rest of the year, for a total of $48.4 billion, which is less than the $50 billion it said it expected to spend on compute in 2026.

Per Barclays and UBS, OpenAI is projected to spend $15 billion on AWS and $12.5 billion on Google Cloud in 2027, with Wells Fargo estimating it will spend $22.9 billion for the first two quarters of 2027 making it reasonable to assume at least $45 billion, for a total of $72.5 billion… which, even then, seems a little low based on what it’s already on track to spend in 2026. 

Then you have to add in another $30 billion from Oracle’s $300 billion, five-year-long deal with OpenAI, which the Wall Street Journal reports is expected to drive $30 billion in revenue starting in 2027, though my own research found that it could be more than $50 billion or $60 billion
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Untypicalboro @untypicalboro.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Middlesbrough right now is the epicentre of cutting edge modern art. MIMA is hosting the annual Turner Prize ceremony. This is really putting us in the spotlight, a big positive after a tough month and sets us up nicely for our City of Culture bid. Get yourself there.
x.com
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Otto English @ottoenglish.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Danny Tommo - Tiny Tears edition
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Jim Waterson @jim.londoncentric.media · 25/09/2026
I don't know enough about sports journalism and who's sourced with who to know who is briefing this to Ornstein and why. But oooofph. www.nytimes.com/athletic/704...
nytimes.com
Manchester City found guilty on almost all Premier League charges relating to financial breaches (Gift Article)
City were charged by the Premier League in February 2023.
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Lemon Jerome @ianferguson.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
The "Free Bin" at Luna Video Games existed to get shit like this the fuck out of the store.
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Paul Bernal @paulbernal.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
No, BBC, he has not been arrested over the video of dinghy slashing. He’s been arrested over the dinghy slashing. Words matter.
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Andy Dawson @andydawson.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I am available for similar or better offers of work 😢
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Athletico Mince @athleticomince.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
See ya...
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Guy Bailey @guybailey.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I hold a statue of liberty sized light for Gremlins 2 - a very underrated and misunderstood picture. Also a rarity - a different genre from it's original.
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DJ Markymarc @djmarkymarc.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
So not a Christmas movie this time. Is it Gremlins do Spring break?
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Russell Parker @pussellrarker.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Such a sad decline from his Sherlock/Doctor Strange heyday www.glasgowlive.co.uk/news/glasgow...
glasgowlive.co.uk
Burst Cumbernauld sewage pipe leaves smelly 'Pringles tube sized keech' on path
The issue is said to have been reported to Scottish Water after a pipe burst, spewing raw sewage onto the path behind Drumpellier Gardens.
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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Global bond markets are blowing up. It feels to me like the crowd that tells us this isn't about fiscal stress is the same crowd that was rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic. You think it's AI investment driving yields in France and Italy vertical? robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/global-bon...
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Peter Smith @redpeter99.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Reading the work of Chris Mason is a cure for Imposter Syndrome.
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Guy Bailey @guybailey.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
8 #Boro #UTB
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Untypicalboro @untypicalboro.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
A diligent and enthusiastic #Boro barmy statistician and researcher, music buff and a top, top bloke.
x.com
Middlesbrough FC (@Boro) on X
We're desperately saddened to report the passing of our friend, Colin Galloway. Colin, as devoted a Boro fan as you are ever likely to meet, was a dedicated researcher and proud custodian of our club...
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Oh God, What Now? – the politics podcast @ohgodwhatnow.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
The only possible conclusion to draw here is that Sunderland’s Reform council leadership are absolutely fine with racism in football. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Sunderland's Reform Council ends Show Racism the Red Card support
Reform ends Sunderland Council support for Show Racism the Red Card in a row with the charity's head.
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Bob Fischer @bobfischer.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Fresh on the Haunted Generation site... my @forteantimes.bsky.social review of the new BFI Children's Film Foundation box set. Magic marbles, escaped lions, scary Michael Elphick and PC Gareth Thomas on a steam engine. Salut @vicpratt.bsky.social... hauntedgeneration.co.uk/2026/09/21/t...
hauntedgeneration.co.uk
The Children’s Film Foundation Bumper Box Volume 6
Bob Fischer reviews the BFI's Children's Film Foundation Vol 6 DVD for Fortean Times
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Vaun Earl Norman @vaun.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I was at A&E this morning at James Cook University Hospital. What a fantastic group of people, working in horrendous circumstances and unknown pressures. But still caring for us. #nhs we are very lucky.
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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
WATCH: a video I made for @thetimes Originals channel that's gone well north of 500k viewers now. How Iran prepared for its war with the US ... www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMUj...
youtube.com
How Iran's Underground Missile Cities Outsmarted the US
YouTube video by The Times
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