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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The USS Abraham Lincoln just arrived in Guam after more than 300 days deployed - a telling example of operational overstretch. In my latest Times Defence Decoded video I ask whether these ships have turned from a symbol of US might into one of its limitations www.youtube.com/watch?v=iTpr...

youtube.com

How America’s Aircraft Carrier Crisis Reveals A Military Decline

YouTube video by The Times

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Trump and Xi - what the summit tells us about the most important bilateral relationship in the world today? Get your Fourcast Indicators pod while it’s fresh! youtu.be/IOPFCrjXICY

youtu.be

Donald Trump meets Xi Jinping - new balance of POWER?

YouTube video by Channel 4 News

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johnrwilliams.bsky.social @johnrwilliams.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

"Given all of this, rushing headlong towards greater dependence on space seems odd. Doesn’t national resilience demand the retention of as many reversionary or back up ways of operating as possible, if there is a growing danger of the orbiting infrastructure is in danger of being obliterated?"

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Britain enters the space warfare business - just as its dependence on satellites has never been higher markurban.substack.com/p/britain-en...

markurban.substack.com

Britain Enters The Space Arms Race

While growing ever more dependent on orbiting infrastructure

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

WATCH: a video I made for @thetimes Originals channel that's gone well north of 500k viewers now. How Iran prepared for its war with the US ... www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMUj...

youtube.com

How Iran's Underground Missile Cities Outsmarted the US

YouTube video by The Times

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Amidst the doom and gloom about what’s been going on in the Middle East and the energy sector we may be missing a big story about the transformation of the US military markurban.substack.com/p/americas-d...

markurban.substack.com

America’s Drone Fleet

And how it’s changed the Hormuz equation

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

WATCH: how Iran prepared for war against America - my latest Defence Decoded video youtu.be/vMUj3CikMSg

youtu.be

How Iran's Underground Missile Cities Outsmarted the US

YouTube video by Times Originals

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Strong words today from Britain, ten European allies and Canada, denouncing 'ethnic cleansing' by Israeli settlers in the West Bank. Underlying that is a deeper alienation between that country and many of its western democratic allies markurban.substack.com/p/europe-san...

markurban.substack.com

Europe Sanctions the Settlements

As Israel and the democratic west pull apart

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Luke McGee @lukemcgee.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

Interesting column by @markurban.bsky.social in the ST on the shifting dynamics in Strait of Hormuz. Best part (in my view) this reflection on shifting US objectives (and what it cost to get even here) apple.news/AaFEGrammS42...

apple.news

Ingenuity and US force are easing Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz — The Times and The Sunday Times

Power dynamics are shifting in the Gulf as efforts to get oil flowing show signs of success

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Germany has accused Russia of trying to blow up a plane at Leipzig airport last month - so what happens next given that everyone in Europe seems braced for escalation? markurban.substack.com/p/germany-ac...

markurban.substack.com

Germany Accuses The Kremlin

...and then what?

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Back with another Fourcast Indicators pod this week alongside @krishgm.bsky.social and a lot to process - notably the ways the Gulf crisis links to the one in the bond markets, and not forgetting Russia! youtu.be/SyVEHrRb0SM

youtu.be

‘A BATTLE FOR SURVIVAL’ - Iran plunged back into war

YouTube video by Channel 4 News

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Peter Ricketts @lordrickettsp.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

Thanks @markurban.bsky.social for quoting me in this cogent assessment of the Ratcliffe mission to Moscow. Whatever his precise talking points, the visit itself was part of the message, and is best followed up by prompt NATO-wide action to up the pressure on Russia in response to provocations.

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

After the CIA boss's dash to Moscow my Sunday Times column this week asks whether the threat of escalation by Putin is serious and whether a visit like that can make a difference (£) www.thetimes.com/world/russia...

thetimes.com

Is Russia going to launch an attack on Nato?

CIA director John Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow was meant to act as a warning to Putin, but was it enough to deter him from another invasion or acts of sabotage?

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

The future of the BBC's Newsnight was in the news this week. The Corporation's DG described as 'nonsense' the idea it was about to be scrapped. As a veteran of the show, naturally, I have views markurban.substack.com/p/newsnight-...

markurban.substack.com

Newsnight Has Been Saved!

Or has it... ?

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Steve Rosenberg @bbcstever.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Two very different headlines today in Russia. The army paper: “Victory will be ours!” Nezavisimaya Gazeta: “Is there a way out of the petrol crisis if infrastructure isn’t protected?” #ReadingRussia

youtu.be

Russian paper: Fuel crisis won't end if Russia can't protect its refineries from drone attacks

YouTube video by Steve Rosenberg

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Chris Rivers @chrisrivers50.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

“We see telltale indicators of escalation in Russian actions towards [Nato]. Whether it was explosive-laden drones at Leipzig airport, Geran one way ‘effectors’ flying into Polish airspace or an uncrewed sea vessel targeting Romania’s offshore gas installations there are myriad signs of it…”

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

We've got used to there being a stalemate in Ukraine - but things are changing now, with risks for Putin, Zelenskyy, and indeed Europe markurban.substack.com/p/double-jeo...

markurban.substack.com

Double Jeopardy

Putin and Zelenskyy are both now under pressure and that raises the risks

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

How on earth did the US get itself into the position that it has fired off most of its stockpile of key missiles? My piece from today' Sunday Times (£) www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

thetimes.com

How did mighty America end up with a shortage of missiles?

Trump’s reported failure to heed warnings before the Iran war follows years of prioritising jets over boring old bombs — and could be bad news for Taiwan

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Let's be real - love of hate Trump, the threats to his life are evident and have to be taken seriously. Journalists covering leaders need to reflect upon that markurban.substack.com/p/iran-wants...

markurban.substack.com

Iran Wants Trump Dead

And that's one of the risks journalists covering him have to understand

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

Stand by! Your Fourcast Indicators pod is out - does the strike in Leipzig mark a new escalation by Putin against NATO, and how might Zelensky convert his deep strike campaign into something that could pose a real threat to the Kremlin? youtu.be/YCzDIsuwFTI

youtu.be

‘PUTIN’S NIGHTMARE’: how Ukraine can deliver ‘KILLER BLOW’ in Russia war | The Fourcast: Indicators

YouTube video by Channel 4 News

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Michael Clarke @mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

Watching this development carefully. No Eur country should bother with Patriot now. 1. Won't get them for years, 2. Subject to US caprice, 3. FP 7 missile will be @ 20% of Patriot cost, 4. FP 7 got same performance profile, except terminal guidance, which will improve. Good prospects overall.

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Macca @macca77.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

Really good read by a much missed BBC correspondant

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Jonathan Boff @jfb1066.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

Of all the decisions we make as citizens, there are few as consequential as those for - or against - war. Good journalism plays an important role in keeping us - as citizen, not just consumers, informed, so this, from an experienced and very talented defence correspondent is important

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

I’ve been thinking about the coverage of defence and conflict - who’s stepping up, and who isn’t markurban.substack.com/p/making-sen...

markurban.substack.com

Making Sense of Our War Torn World

There's a huge public appetite for journalism about conflict ...but not everyone delivers

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

Dramatic events in the Middle East during the past week as Iran finally played the Houthi card. How one side in this conflict escalates to advantage ... while the other posts on social media open.substack.com/pub/markurba...

open.substack.com

The Art of War, 2026 Style

How Iran regained its escalation dominance

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Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Programme @chrussiaeurasia.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

🎧 Listen to Deputy Director of @chrussiaeurasia.bsky.social & head of @chathamhouse.org #UkraineForum - Orysia Lutsevych discussing recent government reshuffle in Ukraine with Matt Frei & @markurban.bsky.social on Channel 4’s The Fourcast: Indicators. Full video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=caG3...

youtube.com

What Ukraine's defence reshuffle REALLY means for Russia war | The Fourcast Indicators

YouTube video by Channel 4 News

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

Just as Ukraine looks like turning the tide, a bitter row and sackings at the top of their forces - time for a @C4TheFourcast Indicators pod! youtu.be/caG3bWH3VQ8

youtu.be

What Ukraine's defence reshuffle REALLY means for Russia war | The Fourcast Indicators

YouTube video by Channel 4 News

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

Can America ever restore its relationships with Nato allies post-Trump? This week I found some reasons to be hopeful open.substack.com/pub/markurba...

open.substack.com

Steadying the Ship

How US military leadership acts as a force for stability

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

As America and Iran resume their struggle for the Strait of Hormuz, time for us on @channel4news.bsky.social Indicators pod to discuss whether there is any path to success for Trump youtu.be/paS6vi0zuO0

youtu.be

Iran war oil shock: how world economy on brink of something ‘EVEN WORSE’

YouTube video by Channel 4 News

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POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 13/07/2026

Nine European countries have agreed to back an ambitious Ukrainian effort to develop a domestic missile defense system that, if successful, would reduce reliance on U.S. technology such as Patriot interceptors.

politico.eu

Europeans to partner with Kyiv on homegrown missile defense

13 Jul 2026 - Pro Article - By Giorgio Leali, Veronika Melkozerova, Esther Webber

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

Whether it's US targeting in Iran, the drones that the Islamic Republic sends back at its Arab neighbours or Ukraine's recent hits on Russia there's a pattern ... open.substack.com/pub/markurba...

open.substack.com

Economic Warfare Is Back

And selective outrage won't alter that

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Is the US/Iran war breaking out again? A stormy day demanded an emergency Fourcast Indicators pod with @krishgm.bsky.social and I youtu.be/7HxqRd8urEE

youtu.be

‘THEY’RE SCUM’ - Trump rips up Iran ceasefire as countries exchange strikes

YouTube video by Channel 4 News

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Ian McClellan @ianmac.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

Today we remember the 52 people who were killed, the people who were injured and affected, the heroes who helped and those who lost loved ones because of the terrible events twenty one years ago on the 7th of July 2005 in London. #LondonBombings #NeverForget #7July @allontheboard.bsky.social

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 03/07/2026

WATCH: Has Ukraine managed to gain the upper hand? how is it prosecuting its attack on Russia differently? My latest video for the Times www.youtube.com/watch?v=mA2R...

youtube.com

Why Russia Is Burning Through 35,000 Soldiers A Month

YouTube video by Times Originals

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William French @wtfrench76.bsky.social · 03/07/2026

Fascinating, and made me realise how little I know about the period - including that 10% of the population chose to leave after Britain's defeat.

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 03/07/2026

Happy Birthday rebels! As the USA celebrates its 250th birthday, a deep dive into what the army that tried to stop the revolution thought of the Americans open.substack.com/pub/markurba...

open.substack.com

'Most Inveterate Enemies'

How America's revolution divided the English speaking world

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

Why the appeal of shiny new things so often suckers the commentariat - and what we might do to use drones to their best advantage open.substack.com/pub/markurba...

open.substack.com

The Drone Trap

And how we might avoid it...

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

The £15bn defence spending boost announced today by the government adds just £1.5bn (over 4 years) to the sum John Healey resigned over, saying it would require defence cuts. That's a problem in terms of what Nato allies expect and military chiefs wanted markurban.substack.com/p/game-over?...

markurban.substack.com

Game Over

Britain's failure to fund defence adequately is a turning point

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 27/06/2026

'Shoot the archer' - the mantra of those arguing Ukraine should focus more effort on Russian missile and drone factories or units. Easier said than done! But some changes are afoot open.substack.com/pub/markurba...

open.substack.com

Shoot the Archer

Ukraine strikes Russia's drone and missile plants

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

Putin’s running out of road financially, and Ukrainian strikes on his heartlands are exposing the failures of his war. So does he escalate or find a way to end it? That’s our topic on today’s @channel4news.bsky.social Indicators pod, give it a listen t.co/sQuLF9tYJG

t.co

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnlIm9TzJQM

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

We've heard many times before that Ukraine might be winning its war. But there's some important changes going on right now that have really turned the heat up for Putin open.substack.com/pub/markurba...

open.substack.com

Putin's Hot Summer

Ukraine is raising the price of ongoing war

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

So much to discuss in this week’s @channel4news.bsky.social Indicators as Matt Frei Helia Ebrahimi nd I pull apart the US/Iran Memorandum of Understanding and try to work out what the deal amounts to and whether it can stick youtu.be/oXwaWgl9XSY

youtu.be

Has Trump REALLY agreed to pay Iran $300 BILLION?

YouTube video by Channel 4 News

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

I'm not sure many people have processed the importance of Britain's defence spending crisis. What should have been a waypoint on a journey of revival has instead become another one in the arc of decline open.substack.com/pub/markurba...

open.substack.com

Game Over

Britain's failure to fund defence adequately is a turning point

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Are we finally getting this Defence Investment Plan or what?! how the long struggle for money makes a mockery of the idea that we are now on a war footing open.substack.com/pub/markurba...

open.substack.com

Jaw Jaw Footing

How the budgetary battle makes a mockery of Britain's defence transformation

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Chris Hale @chrishalemedia.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

Exceptionally powerful analysis here

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

How America emerges as a military power from this Iran war markurban.substack.com/p/the-giant-...

markurban.substack.com

The Giant Stumbles

Part 2 of my lessons from the Iran War

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

Missiles flying in the Gulf, Israeli strikes in Lebanon, and yet we’re closer to a lasting ceasefire?! @krishgm.bsky.social and I host this week’s @channel4news.bsky.social pod with guest Lina Khatib looking at indicators that a deal may indeed be imminent youtu.be/yyuqpYTyZqc

youtu.be

Are we headed for a DEAL or ESCALATION? | The Fourcast Indicators

YouTube video by Channel 4 News

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Mark Urban @markurban.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

Who won the Iran war? It's not even over yet but that's the question so many are asking. Here's Part 1 of my own analysis open.substack.com/pub/markurba...

open.substack.com

Who Won?

Reading the Iran War aftermath: Part 1 the Middle East

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