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Reposted by Alexandros Gotinakos

How did Europeans react to Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs? New registered report (forthcoming, JEPS): a UESD design using a Eurobarometer survey in the field when the tariffs hit. US favorability fell 2.9 pts No change in EU attachment No shift in support for retaliation or rules-based trade

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Nathan Kalmoe (he/him) @nathankalmoe.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Other folks have noted this, but I just wanted to see it again myself. Look at how the income line predicting Rep pres vote share flattens & then reverses in the last 5 panels. ANES cumulative data.

Shifting relationship between income & Republican presidential vote, 1948-2024.

Steep lines in most years showing high income is very Republican, but big shifts from 2008 to 2024 where the trend actually reverses and high income was more Democratic. the late 1960s & early 1970s were another period when the line flattened, with similar salience for civil rights in a positive direction, now regressing with Republicans.

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Reposted by Alexandros Gotinakos

Stephen Wild @stephenjwild.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Do your thing, stats peeps. Also:

Two astronaughts looking st earth. Astronaught 2 is pointing a gun at the head of astronaught 1.

Astronaught 1: Wait, it's mainly based on non-probability samples?

Astronaught 2: Always has been

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Alexandros Gotinakos @gotinakos.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

New TEPSA Brief 📊 I use recent Eurobarometer data to argue that topline polling figures on EU enlargement can paper over weakly crystallized attitudes that closely track broader EU sentiment. Many thanks to TEPSA for the opportunity to develop this argument. Link below ⬇️

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Alexandros Gotinakos @gotinakos.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Prerequisite skill: explaining why your paper is novel (posting for a friend)

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Alexandros Gotinakos @gotinakos.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Or maybe the constructs we found are the constructs we were meant to measure all along

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Reposted by Alexandros Gotinakos

Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Every dataset contains the answer to your question, provided you are willing to change the question

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Reposted by Alexandros Gotinakos

Political Behavior @polbehavior.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

Who trusts government? Chudy & Engelhardt find that perceptions of group status and marginalization help explain political trust across racial groups, beyond which party holds power. Read more: link.springer.com/article/10.1...

link.springer.com

Who Trusts? The Relevance of Race for Political Trust - Political Behavior

In the United States, political trust rests on myriad building blocks, including race. But existing work offers limited information about why race matters for trust and if its relevance varies across ...

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Reposted by Alexandros Gotinakos

Hakeem Jefferson @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

Interesting use of my work in a new paper. Authors use well-established finding that ideology is weaker predictor of party id among Black Ams than among White Ams as benchmark for sample quality. Representative samples recover that pattern. Less rep. samples do not. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Screenshot from the supplemental materials of a research paper. The text explains that the authors use established findings from probability samples as benchmarks for sample quality, including the weaker relationship between political ideology and party identification among Black Americans than among White Americans. Below, three scatterplots compare representative and nonrepresentative samples. In the representative samples, the Black trend line is much flatter than the White trend line. In the nonrepresentative sample, the two trend lines are much more similar, suggesting the distinctive racial difference is not recovered.

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Reposted by Alexandros Gotinakos

Charles Franklin @pollsandvotes.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

Who do you trust? How old are you? Trust in other people is dramatically lower among younger people than the olds charlesatpollsandvotes.substack.com/p/who-do-you...

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Reposted by Alexandros Gotinakos

EUPopLink @eupoplink.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

The COST Action EUPopLink - Linking Euroscepticism and Populism: Causes and Consequences, supported by COST Association - European Cooperation in Science and Technology, invites citizens across Europe to take part in its large-scale, multilingual public opinion survey.

get.epoll.eu

EUPopLink

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Reposted by Alexandros Gotinakos

South European Society & Politics @sespjournal.bsky.social · 01/06/2026

📢NEW ARTICLE!📢 The 2024 European Parliament elections in #Greece: blues of an incipient predominant-party system? Read the article by S. Bolgherini, A.-C. Gkotinakos, and @efteperoglou.bsky.social here 👇 tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

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Alexandros Gotinakos @gotinakos.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

The 2024 Greek EP elections: some answers, and even more questions for the party system. With @efteperoglou.bsky.social and Silvia, we consider some of those in this new @sespjournal.bsky.social election analysis piece

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Reposted by Alexandros Gotinakos

EUPopLink @eupoplink.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

The Training School provided a valuable opportunity to strengthen methodological skills and foster collaboration across the EUPopLink network.

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Reposted by Alexandros Gotinakos

EUPopLink @eupoplink.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

Over two days, participants engaged in a dynamic programme combining theoretical discussions on populism and Euroscepticism with hands-on sessions on survey design, data harmonization, and multilingual research tools.

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EUPopLink @eupoplink.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

The 1st EUPopLink Training School took place in Lisbon at ISCTE – Instituto Universitário de Lisboa. #COSTactions #ScienceWithoutBorders #EUPopLink #TrainingSchool #PoliticalScience #SurveyResearch #ResearchCommunity

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Alexandros Gotinakos @gotinakos.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

Way to start 🚀 Looking forward to the upcoming publications!

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Reposted by Alexandros Gotinakos

EUPopLink @eupoplink.bsky.social · 29/01/2026

We are pleased to share that the first EUPopLink article has now been published on Open Research Europe: “The populism–euroscepticism nexus in a contested Europe: The EUPopLink COST Action.” open-research-europe.ec.europa.eu/articles/6-27

open-research-europe.ec.europa.eu

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Reposted by Alexandros Gotinakos

DATIS Project @datisproject.bsky.social · 11/12/2025

Περισσότερες πληροφορίες, καθώς και το αναλυτικό πρόγραμμα του Συνεδρίου είναι διαθέσιμα από τον σύνδεσμο: datis.gr/greek-confer...

datis.gr

Πανελλήνιο Συνέδριο: Κοινωνικές Έρευνες και Κοινωνίες της Συμπερίληψης | Data for Inclusive Societies

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Reposted by Alexandros Gotinakos

DATIS Project @datisproject.bsky.social · 11/12/2025

Η είσοδος στις εργασίες του Συνεδρίου είναι ελεύθερη. Το Συνέδριο απευθύνεται σε ακαδημαϊκούς, δημοσιογράφους, φοιτητές και φοιτήτριες, ερευνητές και ερευνήτριες και σε κάθε ενδιαφερόμενο/η. Θα δοθούν βεβαιώσεις συμμετοχής στους παρευρισκόμενους.

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Reposted by Alexandros Gotinakos

DATIS Project @datisproject.bsky.social · 11/12/2025

Είμαστε στην ευχάριστη θέση να σας προσκαλέσουμε στο Πανελλήνιο Συνέδριο του ερευνητικού προγράμματος DATIS, που θα πραγματοποιηθεί στις 16 και 17 Δεκεμβρίου 2025, στην αίθουσα 212 της Σχολής Κοινωνικών και Οικονομικών Επιστημών του ΑΠΘ.

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Reposted by Alexandros Gotinakos

Kevin Reuning @reuning.bsky.social · 03/10/2025

New paper with @hjghassell.bsky.social and @michaelheseltine.bsky.social out in @bjpols.bsky.social. We develop measures of voter perceptions of candidate ideology and candidate messaging ideology and find that perception's are related to what candidates say www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Plot showing perception of voter ideology of candidates overtime. It is separated by House and Senate. Republicans are drifting slightly to be more conservative, Democrats are mostly staying in one place.

Plot showing messaging ideology of candidates overtime. It is separated by House and Senate. There is increasing separation between parties over time, with Republicans becoming messaging more moderately during the Trump era and then shifting to the right during Biden.

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Reposted by Alexandros Gotinakos

Political Science Research and Methods @psrm.bsky.social · 19/09/2025

🤔 Do surveys exaggerate democratic support due to social desirability bias (SDB)? ➡️ Using survey-mode variation & list experiments in 24 countries, @pcmagalhaes.bsky.social & @aarslew.bsky.social find no evidence that SDB inflates democratic attitudes www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView

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Reposted by Alexandros Gotinakos

Andrew Heiss @andrew.heiss.phd · 24/09/2025

yes

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Jonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com · 17/09/2025

Americans are most likely to encounter people from different economic classes in gas stations, restaurants and hotels. This mixing is least likely to happen in elementary and secondary schools, while exercising, and in supermarkets. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

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Reposted by Alexandros Gotinakos

Thomas Lin Pedersen @thomasp85.com · 11/09/2025

I am beyond excited to announce that ggplot2 4.0.0 has just landed on CRAN. It's not every day we have a new major #ggplot2 release but it is a fitting 18 year birthday present for the package. Get an overview of the release in this blog post and be on the lookout for more in-depth posts #rstats

tidyverse.org

ggplot2 4.0.0

A new major version of ggplot2 has been released on CRAN. Find out what is new here.

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Reposted by Alexandros Gotinakos

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 09/09/2025

The weird and wonderful history of British voter segmentations: the names, the ideas, the myths! From how "the man on the Clapham omnibus" changed English common law to how "Gail's Voter" helped the Lib Dems gain 64 seats in 2024 to what works well when doing segmentation (and what doesn't)

jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com

The Weird and Wonderful History of British Election Voter Segmentations

This "Stockport Man" outlines his ironic (and unironic) love of the a proud British election tradition

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Reposted by Alexandros Gotinakos

Conrad Hackett @conradhackett.bsky.social · 08/09/2025

Remember, if you encounter what seems like an implausible survey finding, ask: 1. Were survey respondents selected randomly or was this an opt-in poll? 2. Could the results, especially for young adults, be driven by bogus respondents? Keep this post in mind: www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/... 🧪

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Alexandros Gotinakos @gotinakos.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

Full (and fun!) days at #ECPR2025 @ecpr.bsky.social last week, presenting and catching great panels with work from our @datisproject.bsky.social s and @eupoplink.bsky.social teams.

ECPR Panel on "Euroscepticism and Populism in Europe"

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Alexandros Gotinakos @gotinakos.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

Thank you! Absolutely — hopefully we’ll cross paths soon =D

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Reposted by Alexandros Gotinakos

Charles Franklin @pollsandvotes.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

Large partisan differences on the effect of tariffs on the economy, though relatively little change over time. >50% of Reps say tariffs help. Those saying hurt the economy up slightly across partisanship; help economy down a bit with independents. @MULawPoll national surveys.

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Reposted by Alexandros Gotinakos

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 29/08/2025

"Black cities were at the epicenter of fraud dialogue... electoral confidence deteriorated most for racially-resentful Whites post-election in 2020.... racially resentful White Americans are especially likely to believe accusations of fraud when...racialized" link.springer.com/article/10.1...

link.springer.com

On Fertile Ground: How Racial Resentment Primes White Americans To Believe Fraud Accusations - Political Behavior

White Americans face a democratic dilemma: remain committed to electoral democracy (which has been historically beneficial for them), or abandon it as non-White groups gain political stature. We argue...

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Reposted by Alexandros Gotinakos

Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 25/08/2025

Ever stared at a table of regression coefficients & wondered what you're doing with your life? Very excited to share this gentle introduction to another way of making sense of statistical models (w @vincentab.bsky.social) Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf... Website: j-rohrer.github.io/marginal-psy...

Models as Prediction Machines: How to Convert Confusing Coefficients into Clear Quantities

Abstract
Psychological researchers usually make sense of regression models by interpreting coefficient estimates directly. This works well enough for simple linear models, but is more challenging for more complex models with, for example, categorical variables, interactions, non-linearities, and hierarchical structures. Here, we introduce an alternative approach to making sense of statistical models. The central idea is to abstract away from the mechanics of estimation, and to treat models as “counterfactual prediction machines,” which are subsequently queried to estimate quantities and conduct tests that matter substantively. This workflow is model-agnostic; it can be applied in a consistent fashion to draw causal or descriptive inference from a wide range of models. We illustrate how to implement this workflow with the marginaleffects package, which supports over 100 different classes of models in R and Python, and present two worked examples. These examples show how the workflow can be applied across designs (e.g., observational study, randomized experiment) to answer different research questions (e.g., associations, causal effects, effect heterogeneity) while facing various challenges (e.g., controlling for confounders in a flexible manner, modelling ordinal outcomes, and interpreting non-linear models).

Figure illustrating model predictions. On the X-axis the predictor, annual gross income in Euro. On the Y-axis the outcome, predicted life satisfaction. A solid line marks the curve of predictions on which individual data points are marked as model-implied outcomes at incomes of interest. Comparing two such predictions gives us a comparison. We can also fit a tangent to the line of predictions, which illustrates the slope at any given point of the curve.

A figure illustrating various ways to include age as a predictor in a model. On the x-axis age (predictor), on the y-axis the outcome (model-implied importance of friends, including confidence intervals).

Illustrated are
1. age as a categorical predictor, resultings in the predictions bouncing around a lot with wide confidence intervals
2. age as a linear predictor, which forces a straight line through the data points that has a very tight confidence band and
3. age splines, which lies somewhere in between as it smoothly follows the data but has more uncertainty than the straight line.

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EUPopLink @eupoplink.bsky.social · 25/08/2025

🇬🇷 @gotinakos.bsky.social presented Greece’s Country Report on Populism and Euroscepticism. Focus on party strategies, public attitudes, and the Greek case in comparative perspective.

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Alexandros Gotinakos @gotinakos.bsky.social · 25/08/2025

If you have some discretionary time, a coffee around the marina in Aretsou could be worth it, but you'll most likely need to commute by bus from the city center. Kastra can be lovely too, but ideally not during peak sun hours-also closer to campus.

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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 21/08/2025

The problem with 'average over different coding or modelling decisions' is often we will find that different decisions aren't even targeting the same estimand, in ways that may not be clear from the outset

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Alexandros Gotinakos @gotinakos.bsky.social · 19/08/2025

Our project's conference is taking place later this week ⬇️⬇️

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Christopher Barrie @cbarrie.bsky.social · 17/12/2024

Pleased to share the latest version of my paper with Arthur Spirling and @lexipalmer.bsky.social on replication using LMs We show: 1. current applications of LMs in political science research *don't* meet basic standards of reproducibility...

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DATIS Project @datisproject.bsky.social · 28/07/2025

DATIS project, funded by ELIDEK, participated with a presentation by @efteperoglou.bsky.social at EEPE & EKKE event on European Elections 2024, Political and Electoral Analysis, in Athens, on June 14.

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DATIS Project @datisproject.bsky.social · 28/07/2025

The presentation was about the research results of DATIS (Deliverables 4.1, 4.2, 5.1) using @isspsurvey.bsky.social data with the title: “Sequential Mixed Mode Surveys with Mobile Phone Numbers for Increased Coverage”.

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DATIS Project @datisproject.bsky.social · 28/07/2025

DATIS project, funded by ELIDEK, participated at the 78th Annual WAPOR Conference 2025, St. Louis, Missouri, USA, May 12-15, 2025, with a presentation by Professor @andreadis.bsky.social

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Claes de Vreese @claesdevreese.bsky.social · 26/07/2025

Meta ends political ads on their platforms in the EU by October because they don't want to comply with new transparency and targeting regulations. The reasons given here are really weak. And if you do *not* allow these ads, you still need to define what they are. about.fb.com/news/2025/07...

about.fb.com

Ending Political, Electoral and Social Issue Advertising in the EU in Response to Incoming European Regulation

From early October 2025, we will no longer allow political, electoral and social issue ads on our platforms in the EU. This is a difficult decision - one

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Cas Mudde @casmudde.bsky.social · 16/07/2025

Interesting article on the (strong) relationship between political ideology and sport preferences in the U.S.

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Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 07/07/2025

New article out in World Politcs. We analyze how different groups react to varying programs of social democratic parties. We find less trade-offs than often assumed. Generally, more left-progressive programs increase support among social democratic potentials muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...

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