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Alexandros Gotinakos

@gotinakos.bsky.social
165 followers 139 following 18 posts

Public opinion, political behavior, survey methodology | Research Fellow, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki

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Alexandros Gotinakos @gotinakos.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
New TEPSA Brief 📊 I use recent Eurobarometer data to argue that topline polling figures on EU enlargement can paper over weakly crystallized attitudes that closely track broader EU sentiment. Many thanks to TEPSA for the opportunity to develop this argument. Link below ⬇️
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sam³⁰⁰⁰ @samgavin.com · 22/09/2026
this is a real pin from a real company designed by a real person and I own it
strikegently.co
Strike Gently - Horse Pin
1.25 inchesHard enamel with gold platingDeluxe clasp backingShipped with love from our warehouse in LA.
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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Every dataset contains the answer to your question, provided you are willing to change the question
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Political Behavior @polbehavior.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Who trusts government? Chudy & Engelhardt find that perceptions of group status and marginalization help explain political trust across racial groups, beyond which party holds power. Read more: link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
Who Trusts? The Relevance of Race for Political Trust - Political Behavior
In the United States, political trust rests on myriad building blocks, including race. But existing work offers limited information about why race matters for trust and if its relevance varies across ...
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Hakeem Jefferson @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Interesting use of my work in a new paper. Authors use well-established finding that ideology is weaker predictor of party id among Black Ams than among White Ams as benchmark for sample quality. Representative samples recover that pattern. Less rep. samples do not. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Screenshot from the supplemental materials of a research paper. The text explains that the authors use established findings from probability samples as benchmarks for sample quality, including the weaker relationship between political ideology and party identification among Black Americans than among White Americans. Below, three scatterplots compare representative and nonrepresentative samples. In the representative samples, the Black trend line is much flatter than the White trend line. In the nonrepresentative sample, the two trend lines are much more similar, suggesting the distinctive racial difference is not recovered.
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Charles Franklin @pollsandvotes.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
Who do you trust? How old are you? Trust in other people is dramatically lower among younger people than the olds charlesatpollsandvotes.substack.com/p/who-do-you...
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EUPopLink @eupoplink.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
The COST Action EUPopLink - Linking Euroscepticism and Populism: Causes and Consequences, supported by COST Association - European Cooperation in Science and Technology, invites citizens across Europe to take part in its large-scale, multilingual public opinion survey.
get.epoll.eu
EUPopLink
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South European Society & Politics @sespjournal.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
📢NEW ARTICLE!📢 The 2024 European Parliament elections in #Greece: blues of an incipient predominant-party system? Read the article by S. Bolgherini, A.-C. Gkotinakos, and @efteperoglou.bsky.social here 👇 tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
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Alexandros Gotinakos @gotinakos.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
The 2024 Greek EP elections: some answers, and even more questions for the party system. With @efteperoglou.bsky.social and Silvia, we consider some of those in this new @sespjournal.bsky.social election analysis piece
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EUPopLink @eupoplink.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
The Training School provided a valuable opportunity to strengthen methodological skills and foster collaboration across the EUPopLink network.
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EUPopLink @eupoplink.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Over two days, participants engaged in a dynamic programme combining theoretical discussions on populism and Euroscepticism with hands-on sessions on survey design, data harmonization, and multilingual research tools.
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EUPopLink @eupoplink.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
The 1st EUPopLink Training School took place in Lisbon at ISCTE – Instituto Universitário de Lisboa. #COSTactions #ScienceWithoutBorders #EUPopLink #TrainingSchool #PoliticalScience #SurveyResearch #ResearchCommunity
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EUPopLink @eupoplink.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
We are pleased to share that the first EUPopLink article has now been published on Open Research Europe: “The populism–euroscepticism nexus in a contested Europe: The EUPopLink COST Action.” open-research-europe.ec.europa.eu/articles/6-27
open-research-europe.ec.europa.eu
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DATIS Project @datisproject.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
Περισσότερες πληροφορίες, καθώς και το αναλυτικό πρόγραμμα του Συνεδρίου είναι διαθέσιμα από τον σύνδεσμο: datis.gr/greek-confer...
datis.gr
Πανελλήνιο Συνέδριο: Κοινωνικές Έρευνες και Κοινωνίες της Συμπερίληψης | Data for Inclusive Societies
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DATIS Project @datisproject.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
Η είσοδος στις εργασίες του Συνεδρίου είναι ελεύθερη. Το Συνέδριο απευθύνεται σε ακαδημαϊκούς, δημοσιογράφους, φοιτητές και φοιτήτριες, ερευνητές και ερευνήτριες και σε κάθε ενδιαφερόμενο/η. Θα δοθούν βεβαιώσεις συμμετοχής στους παρευρισκόμενους.
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DATIS Project @datisproject.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
Είμαστε στην ευχάριστη θέση να σας προσκαλέσουμε στο Πανελλήνιο Συνέδριο του ερευνητικού προγράμματος DATIS, που θα πραγματοποιηθεί στις 16 και 17 Δεκεμβρίου 2025, στην αίθουσα 212 της Σχολής Κοινωνικών και Οικονομικών Επιστημών του ΑΠΘ.
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Kevin Reuning @reuning.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
New paper with @hjghassell.bsky.social and @michaelheseltine.bsky.social out in @bjpols.bsky.social. We develop measures of voter perceptions of candidate ideology and candidate messaging ideology and find that perception's are related to what candidates say www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Plot showing perception of voter ideology of candidates overtime. It is separated by House and Senate. Republicans are drifting slightly to be more conservative, Democrats are mostly staying in one place. Plot showing messaging ideology of candidates overtime. It is separated by House and Senate. There is increasing separation between parties over time, with Republicans becoming messaging more moderately during the Trump era and then shifting to the right during Biden.
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Political Science Research and Methods @psrm.bsky.social · 19/09/2025
🤔 Do surveys exaggerate democratic support due to social desirability bias (SDB)? ➡️ Using survey-mode variation & list experiments in 24 countries, @pcmagalhaes.bsky.social & @aarslew.bsky.social find no evidence that SDB inflates democratic attitudes www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
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Andrew Heiss @andrew.heiss.phd · 24/09/2025
yes
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Jonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com · 17/09/2025
Americans are most likely to encounter people from different economic classes in gas stations, restaurants and hotels. This mixing is least likely to happen in elementary and secondary schools, while exercising, and in supermarkets. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
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Thomas Lin Pedersen @thomasp85.com · 11/09/2025
I am beyond excited to announce that ggplot2 4.0.0 has just landed on CRAN. It's not every day we have a new major #ggplot2 release but it is a fitting 18 year birthday present for the package. Get an overview of the release in this blog post and be on the lookout for more in-depth posts #rstats
tidyverse.org
ggplot2 4.0.0
A new major version of ggplot2 has been released on CRAN. Find out what is new here.
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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 09/09/2025
The weird and wonderful history of British voter segmentations: the names, the ideas, the myths! From how "the man on the Clapham omnibus" changed English common law to how "Gail's Voter" helped the Lib Dems gain 64 seats in 2024 to what works well when doing segmentation (and what doesn't)
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
The Weird and Wonderful History of British Election Voter Segmentations
This "Stockport Man" outlines his ironic (and unironic) love of the a proud British election tradition
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Conrad Hackett @conradhackett.bsky.social · 08/09/2025
Remember, if you encounter what seems like an implausible survey finding, ask: 1. Were survey respondents selected randomly or was this an opt-in poll? 2. Could the results, especially for young adults, be driven by bogus respondents? Keep this post in mind: www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/... 🧪
In an experiment, Pew Research Center demonstrated that opt-in and probability-based surveys produced very different results about young adults' views of the Holocaust and abortion.
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Alexandros Gotinakos @gotinakos.bsky.social · 05/09/2025
Full (and fun!) days at #ECPR2025 @ecpr.bsky.social last week, presenting and catching great panels with work from our @datisproject.bsky.social s and @eupoplink.bsky.social teams.
ECPR Panel on "Euroscepticism and Populism in Europe"
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Charles Franklin @pollsandvotes.bsky.social · 02/09/2025
Large partisan differences on the effect of tariffs on the economy, though relatively little change over time. >50% of Reps say tariffs help. Those saying hurt the economy up slightly across partisanship; help economy down a bit with independents. @MULawPoll national surveys.
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 29/08/2025
"Black cities were at the epicenter of fraud dialogue... electoral confidence deteriorated most for racially-resentful Whites post-election in 2020.... racially resentful White Americans are especially likely to believe accusations of fraud when...racialized" link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
On Fertile Ground: How Racial Resentment Primes White Americans To Believe Fraud Accusations - Political Behavior
White Americans face a democratic dilemma: remain committed to electoral democracy (which has been historically beneficial for them), or abandon it as non-White groups gain political stature. We argue...
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 25/08/2025
Ever stared at a table of regression coefficients & wondered what you're doing with your life? Very excited to share this gentle introduction to another way of making sense of statistical models (w @vincentab.bsky.social) Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf... Website: j-rohrer.github.io/marginal-psy...
Models as Prediction Machines: How to Convert Confusing Coefficients into Clear Quantities

Abstract
Psychological researchers usually make sense of regression models by interpreting coefficient estimates directly. This works well enough for simple linear models, but is more challenging for more complex models with, for example, categorical variables, interactions, non-linearities, and hierarchical structures. Here, we introduce an alternative approach to making sense of statistical models. The central idea is to abstract away from the mechanics of estimation, and to treat models as “counterfactual prediction machines,” which are subsequently queried to estimate quantities and conduct tests that matter substantively. This workflow is model-agnostic; it can be applied in a consistent fashion to draw causal or descriptive inference from a wide range of models. We illustrate how to implement this workflow with the marginaleffects package, which supports over 100 different classes of models in R and Python, and present two worked examples. These examples show how the workflow can be applied across designs (e.g., observational study, randomized experiment) to answer different research questions (e.g., associations, causal effects, effect heterogeneity) while facing various challenges (e.g., controlling for confounders in a flexible manner, modelling ordinal outcomes, and interpreting non-linear models).
Figure illustrating model predictions. On the X-axis the predictor, annual gross income in Euro. On the Y-axis the outcome, predicted life satisfaction. A solid line marks the curve of predictions on which individual data points are marked as model-implied outcomes at incomes of interest. Comparing two such predictions gives us a comparison. We can also fit a tangent to the line of predictions, which illustrates the slope at any given point of the curve.A figure illustrating various ways to include age as a predictor in a model. On the x-axis age (predictor), on the y-axis the outcome (model-implied importance of friends, including confidence intervals).

Illustrated are 
1. age as a categorical predictor, resultings in the predictions bouncing around a lot with wide confidence intervals
2. age as a linear predictor, which forces a straight line through the data points that has a very tight confidence band and
3. age splines, which lies somewhere in between as it smoothly follows the data but has more uncertainty than the straight line.
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EUPopLink @eupoplink.bsky.social · 25/08/2025
🇬🇷 @gotinakos.bsky.social presented Greece’s Country Report on Populism and Euroscepticism. Focus on party strategies, public attitudes, and the Greek case in comparative perspective.
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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
The problem with 'average over different coding or modelling decisions' is often we will find that different decisions aren't even targeting the same estimand, in ways that may not be clear from the outset
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Alexandros Gotinakos @gotinakos.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
Our project's conference is taking place later this week ⬇️⬇️
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Alexandros Gotinakos @gotinakos.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
Join us on Monday!
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Christopher Barrie @cbarrie.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
Pleased to share the latest version of my paper with Arthur Spirling and @lexipalmer.bsky.social on replication using LMs We show: 1. current applications of LMs in political science research *don't* meet basic standards of reproducibility...
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DATIS Project @datisproject.bsky.social · 28/07/2025
DATIS project, funded by ELIDEK, participated with a presentation by @efteperoglou.bsky.social at EEPE & EKKE event on European Elections 2024, Political and Electoral Analysis, in Athens, on June 14.
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DATIS Project @datisproject.bsky.social · 28/07/2025
The presentation was about the research results of DATIS (Deliverables 4.1, 4.2, 5.1) using @isspsurvey.bsky.social data with the title: “Sequential Mixed Mode Surveys with Mobile Phone Numbers for Increased Coverage”.
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DATIS Project @datisproject.bsky.social · 28/07/2025
DATIS project, funded by ELIDEK, participated at the 78th Annual WAPOR Conference 2025, St. Louis, Missouri, USA, May 12-15, 2025, with a presentation by Professor @andreadis.bsky.social
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Claes de Vreese @claesdevreese.bsky.social · 26/07/2025
Meta ends political ads on their platforms in the EU by October because they don't want to comply with new transparency and targeting regulations. The reasons given here are really weak. And if you do *not* allow these ads, you still need to define what they are. about.fb.com/news/2025/07...
about.fb.com
Ending Political, Electoral and Social Issue Advertising in the EU in Response to Incoming European Regulation
From early October 2025, we will no longer allow political, electoral and social issue ads on our platforms in the EU. This is a difficult decision - one
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Cas Mudde @casmudde.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
Interesting article on the (strong) relationship between political ideology and sport preferences in the U.S.
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Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
New article out in World Politcs. We analyze how different groups react to varying programs of social democratic parties. We find less trade-offs than often assumed. Generally, more left-progressive programs increase support among social democratic potentials muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...
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Political Behavior @polbehavior.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
In "An Ideology by Any Other Name," Andrew Trexler & Christopher Johnson find that many Americans identify with ideological labels beyond “liberal” or “conservative.” They show these alternative labels shape political attitudes and vote choice. Read more: link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
An Ideology by Any Other Name - Political Behavior
The terms ‘liberal’ and ‘conservative’ are prominent features of political discourse in the United States, and many citizens choose to identify with one of these ideological labels. Yet, many citizens...
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John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
"It's the economy, stupid" Voters vote based on the economy. But there are many economic performance indicators. Which matter the most? This new paper shows voters react to growth, unemployment, inflation, & stock markets. But the inflation plays the biggest role. www.ifau.se/globalassets...
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West European Politics @wepsocial.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
Online first: "Partisan cueing and preferences for fiscal integration in the European Union" by @mauritsmeijers.bsky.social @bjoernbremer.bsky.social @theresakuhn.bsky.social & @francesconicoli.bsky.social doi.org/10.1080/0140... #Academicsky #Polisky
Abstract of the article "Partisan cueing and preferences for fiscal integration in the European Union" by Maurits J. Meijers, Björn Bremer, Theresa Kuhn and Francesco Nicoli. Published online first in West European Politics.Table 1, displaying the expected effects of party cues on support for Eurobonds relative to the control group.Figure 4, displaying the party cueing effects on support for Eurobonds by country.Figure 5, displaying the party cueing effecs on support for Eurobonds by EU integration priors.
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Michal Ovádek @movadek.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
political scientists democratising their institutions in the age of backsliding, talk about leading by example
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EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
Yesterday EPSS was founded, today we answer members’ questions. A 🧵 1. Who formed EPSS? EPSS was founded by a supermajority vote of the EPSA Council, made up of 3 EPSAL shareholders & 9 elected, appointed, or ex officio members. 1/
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EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
🚨 Big News for European Political Science 🚨 We’re thrilled to announce the launch of the European Political Science Society (EPSS): a new, member-led, not-for-profit association built to support our scholarly community. 🔗 epssnet.org Here’s a thread with everything you need to know. 🧵
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Linda Skitka @lindaskitka.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
People tend to underestimate just how much public opinion is shaped by elite cue following. #Zaller
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Toni Rodon @tonirodon.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
Some clear leftist and rightist traits (based on current political science) do not resonate with a large proportion of European citizens. The cultural elements of the left–right concept are not perceived in the same way across Europe link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
Who's left, who's right? Examining cross-national variations in the use of the left–right scale with anchoring vignettes - Comparative European Politics
The left–right ideological position of individuals is a key variable in political science, often used to ease the complexities of political preferences into a single dimension. Despite its widespread ...
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Conrad Hackett @conradhackett.bsky.social · 16/06/2025
England is experiencing a churchgoing revival, according to a recent report based on nonprobability polls. David Voas is skeptical. He explains that probability-based survey data doesn't point to a revival. Nor does data from Christian denominations. theconversation.com/is-there-rea...
The Bible Society recently published a report claiming that church attendance in England and Wales increased by more than half between 2018 and 2024. The revival was especially striking among young men, with reported church attendance jumping from 4% to 21% over this short period.

As a quantitative social scientist who has studied religious change in modern societies for more than 25 years, I’m surprised – and sceptical. I do not doubt that the Bible Society acted in good faith, but they haven’t engaged with the mountain of evidence, some of it very recent, pointing to religious decline.

The annual British Social Attitudes survey – widely regarded as the best and most reliable source of data on such matters – shows that the share of adults in England and Wales who said that they were Christian and went to church at least monthly fell by nearly a quarter (from 12.2% to 9.3%) between 2018 and 2023, the last year available. The Bible Society surveys suggest that churchgoers were 8% of the adult population in 2018 and 12% in 2024.

The main Christian denominations (Anglican, Catholic, Methodist, Baptist) conduct and publish their own attendance counts every year. Those show that while churchgoing continues to rebound from the lows of the COVID lockdown, attendance at worship services remains substantially lower than it was in 2019, before the pandemic. In the Church of England, average weekly attendance is down about 20% from pre-pandemic levels, and the story is similar in other denominations.What could be the problem with the data?
Gold standard social surveys are based on random (probability) samples of the population: everyone has a chance to be included. The British Social Attitudes survey is one such example – and found that churchgoing fell by nearly a quarter from 2018-23.

By contrast, people opt in to YouGov’s survey panel and are rewarded after completing a certain number of surveys. The risk of low-quality or even bogus responses is considerable.

YouGov creates a quota sample from its large self-selected panel. The sample will match the population on a number of key characteristics, such as age and sex, but that does not make it representative in all respects. As quota samples do not give each person in the population a known chance of being selected, statistical inference is not possible and findings cannot be reliably generalised.

To write (as in the Bible Society report) that because thousands of people participated in the two surveys, they “give a 1% margin of error at a 99% confidence level” is misleading.

This study is not the first time such non-probability sampling has led to dubious findings. In late 2023, the Economist ran the story that one in five young Americans believed that the Holocaust was a myth, based on another YouGov poll. A study by the Pew Research Center showed that that finding was almost certainly fallacious, and the Economist added a disclaimer acknowledging the problem.
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Kevin Reuning @reuning.bsky.social · 16/06/2025
ALWAYS PLOT YOUR DATA. ALWAYS PLOT YOUR DATA. ALWAYS PLOT YOUR DATA. (Yes I just found a mistake in some code that I would have caught by plotting my data)
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