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George Hay

@georgehay.bsky.social
848 followers 75 following 25 posts

EMEA Editor, Reuters Breakingviews

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Reposted by George Hay
Oliver Taslic @olivertaslic.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Can the values of SpaceX’s main businesses — rockets 🚀, satellites 🛰️ and AI 🤖 — add up to anything near $1.75 trillion? Play around with the multiples with a new interactive calculator from @breakingviews.reuters.com to decide 👉 reut.rs/4wJd6VZ And read the related column here 👉 reut.rs/4tLDMCH
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George Hay @georgehay.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Cool Breakingviews calculator alert ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
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George Hay @georgehay.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
The biggest M&A deal ever. A crypto bailout. Just some of the things Breakingviews columnists predict for 2026 in a new e-book, ‘Far Side of the Boom’. Access the book 👉 reut.rs/3YDKKwu Or read articles online 👉 reut.rs/45puKSz
reut.rs
As the world enters 2026, Breakingviews columnists map out how powerful forces of macroeconomic stimulus, exuberance over artificial intelligence and corporate dealmaking could interact with tensions between great powers, financial gravity and political dysfunction in the coming 12 months.
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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
I understand why they didn't say pre-budget: "The main reason we need to raise tax is to build headroom against the fiscal rules - we want to put the markets to bed and move on." As that sounds like an arbitrary use of people's taxes - plugging a conceptual gap.
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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 30/11/2025
This OBR/Treasury row on who said what, when... is very muddy and complicated. A few points: • idea that the OBR said on Oct 31 Reeves was already meeting her target by £4b isn't really the full picture - fcast excluded the welfare u-turns since March (some media have pointed that out, others not)
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Peter Thal Larsen @petertl.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
For several years I've written a weekly note to the @breakingviews.reuters.com team, picking out key insights and ideas. Some colleagues urged me to share these musings more widely. So behold The Week in Breakingviews, free in your inbox each Saturday. Sign up here: www.reuters.com/newsletters/...
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Peter Thal Larsen @petertl.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
So @dsquareddigest.bsky.social is a former banks analyst who has written books on fraud and on systemic failures. That makes him the ideal person to come on The Big View and talk about stablecoins. Listen here: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...
podcasts.apple.com
The Big View
News Podcast · Updated weekly · Reuters Breakingviews columnists tap their best contacts to explore the biggest issues driving business and markets today. Every Tuesday, Global Editor Peter Thal Larse...
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Henry Foy @henryjfoy.ft.com · 10/04/2025
VDL ruled out revisiting the EU’s “untouchable” regulations on digital content and market power, which Trump officials see as taxes on Big Tech firms, and Europe's VAT rules “These are not in the packages of negotiation because these are our sovereign decisions” Full interview: on.ft.com/43Qg7Ic
on.ft.com
EU could tax Big Tech if Trump trade talks fail, says von der Leyen
[FREE TO READ] European Commission president tells FT she wants ‘balanced’ deal but could hit US services in retaliation
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Henry Foy @henryjfoy.ft.com · 10/04/2025
In an interview w @roulak.bsky.social, @andybounds.bsky.social & I, @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu said the EU wants a “completely balanced” deal. “[But] we are developing retaliatory measures” she said. “There’s a wide range of countermeasures . . . in case the negotiations are not satisfactory”
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Henry Foy @henryjfoy.ft.com · 10/04/2025
💥 EU could levy new taxes on Big Tech companies' digital advertising revenues if negotiations with Trump over trade tariffs fail, Ursula von der Leyen tells @financialtimes.com “It’s a turning point with the United States without any question... We will never go back" on.ft.com/429u02T
on.ft.com
EU could tax Big Tech if Trump trade talks fail, says von der Leyen
[FREE TO READ] European Commission president tells FT she wants ‘balanced’ deal but could hit US services in retaliation
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Peter Thal Larsen @petertl.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
The Trump administration "is effectively demanding an overnight overhaul of an immensely expensive and complicated supply chain, threatening pure destruction." www.reuters.com/breakingview...
reuters.com
Breakingviews - US auto tariffs zoom past economic speed limit
Donald Trump is threatening to drive the U.S. auto industry so hard that the wheels fall off. In a Wednesday press conference, the president announced25% tariffs on cars and parts, endangering a border-hopping global supply chain. The touted tolls could be enough to total carmakers’ collective profit. Autos are strategically valuable, but this goes too far, too fast.
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Paul McNamara @mpaulmcnamara.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
Via @gusbaratta.bsky.social
D-day group chat
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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
Me whenever people talk about "too low" UK interest rates and QE in the 2010s
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George Hay @georgehay.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
Deep dive with @breakingviews.reuters.com colleague Afiq Fitri Alias, looking at whether Trump’s review should find in favour of consciously uncoupling the US from the World Bank. Short answer: no. Long answer ⬇️
reuters.com
Breakingviews - How the World Bank can defend itself from Trump
Up until two years ago, Ajay Banga had spent most of his career in the private sector – as a banker at Citigroup and latterly as the CEO of Mastercard . Now the World Bank president finds himself having to defend one of the linchpins of the liberal international order against President Donald Trump, who last month ordered a government review that could see the United States quit as the 81-year-old institution’s top shareholder. Yet Banga has arguments and hard facts on his side, which could help him appeal to U.S. self-interest.
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Michael Savage @michaelsavage.bsky.social · 08/03/2025
Great to hear @bbcradio4.bsky.social Today programme follow up on our @theguardian.com investigation into the TV crisis this morning. Broadcasters, big production companies - speak to me about it! Michael.savage@theguardian.com
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Peter Thal Larsen @petertl.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
There’s a real possibility that Trump doesn’t impose any permanent tariffs but trade still collapses because all the importers assume that he has.
Reuters snaps of Lutnick comments on Fox Business
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George Hay @georgehay.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
Come for the crunchy financial analysis of Aberdeen’s latest rebrand/strategy, by Neil Unmack… www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
breakingviews.com
Abrdn finds its missing vowels but not value
New CEO Jason Windsor is renaming the $4.2 bln fund group Aberdeen and pledging to boost profit. Both steps are welcome but come amidst tricky markets and growing competition from index funds. Small w...
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George Hay @georgehay.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
A triptych of stellar pieces by the redoubtable EMEA team at @breakingviews.reuters.com this week. First @liamproud.bsky.social on Patrick Drahi's unusual debt restructuring, then Neil Unmack on the return Thames Water investors can expect, and finally @jen-johnson.bsky.social on a WPP buyout.
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Peter Thal Larsen @petertl.bsky.social · 22/02/2025
A modest proposal from @georgehay.bsky.social: that the UK relax visa requirements for medical, scientific and technology researchers whose work has been disrupted by the Trump administration. Call it the “non-Don” regime. www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
breakingviews.com
UK could lure US talent with a ‘non-Don’ regime
Britain has upset expats by ditching ‘non-dom’ rules that allowed them to swerve tax on offshore wealth. It could replace them by luring healthcare experts and scientists alienated by President Donald...
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Simon Robinson @ironemu.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
Exclusive: Zelenskiy says 'Let's do a deal', offering Trump mineral partnership, seeking security - www.reuters.com/world/zelens...
reuters.com
Exclusive: Zelenskiy says 'Let's do a deal', offering Trump mineral partnership, seeking security
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy pored over a once-classified map of vast deposits of rare earths and other critical minerals during an interview with Reuters on Friday, part of a push to appeal to Donald Trump's penchant for a deal.
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Rob Cyran @robcyran.bsky.social · 04/02/2025
From me - on the limits of Jevons Paradox: www.breakingviews.com/features/ai-...
breakingviews.com
AI giants’ less-is-more logic bears three caveats
Breakthroughs in building cheaper silicon smarts threaten tech firms enjoying a spending boom. Microsoft’s CEO offered comfort in a 160-year-old observation that efficiency gains stoked coal demand. F...
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
In no particular order, some thoughts on the fiscal stuff: 1) Lots of the coverage about rising yields has been a bit excitable. It's bad, but not a crisis. It's largely down to global factors. There's lots of moving parts and Rachel Reeves might yet meet her fiscal rules without changing a thing.
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jeuasommenulle.bsky.social @jeuasommenulle.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
This is pure gold, Greek edition. How did Eurobank achieve such an increase in capital ratios, in Q3 24? The trick is in the +99bps. Which comes from a mysterious decrease of 2.4bn€ in RWA. But how? Deleveraging? Oh no, that would be hard work. I’ve got a better idea. Thread.
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Rob Cyran @robcyran.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
You can easily see the most stressed areas in the map. And note that values of real estate exposed to climate risk has started to fall.
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Rob Cyran @robcyran.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
Probably the biggest disconnect in markets: -houses are the most valuable asset for most Americans -the US system is built upon the 30yr mortgage -you can't get a mortgage without insurance - insurance will be vastly more costly or unavailable in many areas in the future.
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Liam Proud @liamproud.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
It's well-known that mature tech firms (Stripe, SpaceX etc.) have been delaying going public. But a boom in off-market share sales raises an intriguing new possibility: the perpetually private startup. www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
breakingviews.com
How private share sales could kill the tech IPO
Databricks, Stripe and Elon Musk’s $350 bln SpaceX facilitated large exits by insiders without a float. There’s a growing pool of patient capital targeting mature startups. The bigger the trend gets, ...
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Peter Thal Larsen @petertl.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
Here is 11 hours of almost unbroken tweeting by Elon Musk, starting at midnight GMT/7pm EST on Monday. How is he getting anything else done?
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Reuters Breakingviews @breakingviews.reuters.com · 07/01/2025
London’s lethargy aids Boaz Weinstein’s new tilt - www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
breakingviews.com
London’s lethargy aids Boaz Weinstein’s new tilt
The US hedge fund manager wants to boot out the board at seven UK investment companies. His fund Saba, which bet against the London Whale, is no stranger to targeting underperforming funds. The growin...
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Reuters Breakingviews @breakingviews.reuters.com · 07/01/2025
Big Booze speeds towards low-growth tobacco status - www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
breakingviews.com
Big Booze speeds towards low-growth tobacco status
The US surgeon general wants health warnings on alcohol bottles. Declining drinking rates have already shrunk the valuations of brewers like Carlsberg to 12 times forward earnings, nearing tobacco lev...
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Liam Proud @liamproud.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
Are alcohol companies the new tobacco companies? Almost, according to their valuations
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George Hay @georgehay.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
Fascinating Reuters deep dive here by @paulcarsten.bsky.social and @pkddapacific.bsky.social
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Reuters @reuters.com · 07/01/2025
While Iran's oil-smuggling methods have been well-guarded, a trove of emails leaked last year exposed unusually granular detail about the day-to-day workings of one company — Sahara Thunder reut.rs/3W7SqGl 1/7
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Karen Kwok @karenkkwok.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
Why an OpenAI IPO could create the next hot meme stock? My take for the Predictions 2025 👇 It could be a stupid thought, so read and let me know ;)
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Katrina Hamlin @katrinahamlin.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
What better way to kickstart this account than with the @breakingviews.reuters.com annual Predictions for the year ahead. Take a look and let us know if you think our crystal-ball gazers will be right or wrong... www.breakingviews.com/predictions/
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Peter Thal Larsen @petertl.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
You can explore all our predictions for 2025 here: www.breakingviews.com/predictions/ or download the e-book here: www.breakingviews.com/predictions-...
breakingviews.com
Predictions 2025 — Altered States
Breakingviews’ Predictions 2025 explores what geopolitical risks, technological shifts and climate change will mean for markets, companies and government
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Peter Thal Larsen @petertl.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
The past five years have shown us the perils of making predictions. Looking ahead to 2025 is arguably even harder. Undaunted, the @breakingviews.reuters.com team have yet again nailed their colours to the mast. www.breakingviews.com/features/ris...
breakingviews.com
Risk and resilience are the watchwords for 2025
In the past five years, the world economy has weathered disease and war. As Donald Trump prepares to take office again, the range of possible outcomes is wider than ever. Hefty sovereign debts and pum...
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Michael Savage @michaelsavage.bsky.social · 21/12/2024
NEW: After Elon Musk’s meeting with Nigel Farage emerged, senior Labour figures gathered to discuss it. Before long, there was increasing agreement that a rush to change donation laws was not the answer… Story: www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
theguardian.com
Ministers resist calls to block Musk donations to Farage’s Reform UK
Government fears moves to curb any potential cash from the tech titan could backfire and play into Reform UK’s hands
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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 19/12/2024
Bank of England's survey of businesses says "many" firms are considering reducing headcount, hours and wages in response to the Budget. But hard to know what it means as this claim isn't quantified, whether in terms of ubiquity or likelihood.
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Rob Cyran @robcyran.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
One stat in this story really illustrates solar's acceleration - this project is installing 10,000 panels per day.
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George Hay @georgehay.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
"Masayoshi Son’s new $100 billion investment target for the United States sums up the Japanese tycoon: it’s attention-grabbing, probably exaggerated, and almost certainly a poor use of his shareholders’ money" @karenkkwok.bsky.social
breakingviews.com
SoftBank’s $100 bln US pledge is doubly fanciful
In 2016 Masayoshi Son offered to invest $50 bln stateside. Now the Japanese group’s founder has promised Donald Trump twice that sum, despite having barely a quarter of it at his disposal. It will be ...
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George Hay @georgehay.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
The FSB (not that one) reckons national regulators should consider leverage caps for hedge funds. @liamproud.bsky.social mulls the details: www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
breakingviews.com
Watchdogs finally detect scent of hedge-fund risk
The Financial Stability Board proposed ideas including leverage caps that may affect Ken Griffin’s Citadel and Israel Englander’s Millennium. The new US administration will balk. Yet with hedge fund b...
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Peter Thal Larsen @petertl.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
How the population of London has changed over the last decade. Fascinating chart from @jim.londoncentric.media. www.londoncentric.media/p/london-tra...
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George Hay @georgehay.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
Iran's Revolutionary Guards control half of Tehran's oil exports, @jonathansaul.bsky.social and @phreuters.bsky.social report - up from 20% three years ago www.reuters.com/world/middle...
reuters.com
Iran's Revolutionary Guards extend control over Tehran's oil exports, sources say
All aspects of the oil business have come under the growing influence of the Guards, from the "shadow fleet" of tankers that secretively ship sanctioned crude, to logistics and the front companies selling the oil, mostly to China.
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Peter Thal Larsen @petertl.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
“Hours before he escaped for Moscow, Assad assured a meeting of about 30 army and security chiefs at the defence ministry on Saturday that Russian military support was on its way and urged ground forces to hold out.“ Great reporting here. www.reuters.com/world/middle...
reuters.com
Assad's final hours in Syria: Deception, despair and flight
Bashar al-Assad confided in almost no one about his plans to flee Syria as his reign collapsed. Instead, aides, officials and even relatives were deceived or kept in the dark, more than a dozen people with knowledge of the events told Reuters.
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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
One of the greatest ever movie reviews
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Jim Waterson @jim.londoncentric.media · 12/12/2024
The Land Registry putting up fees for finding out the true owner of a property by 133% is a proper financial hit if you're running a small investigative news outlet! (Related: I've always thought if you wanted to start a revolution in the UK, make the Land Registry free and searchable on Google.)
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Reuters Breakingviews @breakingviews.reuters.com · 12/12/2024
🔊 France is without a prime minister after Michel Barnier lost a no-confidence vote. In this Viewsroom podcast, @breakingviews.reuters.com columnists explain why a long crisis would deter foreign investors and damage France’s growth reut.rs/41AK7Xr
reut.rs
French political stalemate threatens its economy: podcast
The country is without a prime minister after Michel Barnier lost a no-confidence vote. That will make it hard to cut the large budget deficit. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain why a long crisis would deter foreign investors and damage France’s growth.
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Peter Thal Larsen @petertl.bsky.social · 08/12/2024
Two Syrian sources tell @reuters.com there’s a “very high probability” that Assad’s plane has crashed. www.reuters.com/world/middle...
A Syrian Air plane took off from Damascus airport around the time the capital was reported to have been taken by rebels, according to data from the Flightradar website.
The aircraft initially flew towards Syria's coastal region, a stronghold of Assad's Alawite sect, but then made an abrupt U-turn and flew in the opposite direction for a few minutes before disappearing off the map.
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George Hay @georgehay.bsky.social · 07/12/2024
US equities are 67% of the global index and given the circumstances some seriously big pension funds don’t want to get any more exposed - but that means they face further shade for underperforming the S&P 500 🤦🏻‍♂️. More here, by @petertl.bsky.social www.breakingviews.com/features/us-...
breakingviews.com
US market juggernaut poses top risk for 2025
After a second year of world-beating returns, stocks listed in the United States account for 67% of global equity markets. Outperformance sucks in more capital and companies. Though it’s a long-term t...
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Rob Cyran @robcyran.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
Between Romania annulling its election because of an influence campaign on Tik Tok, and the US appeals court upholding a forced sale of the same platform, seems like a milestone for social media. www.reuters.com/world/europe...
reuters.com
Romanian top court annuls presidential election results
Romania's top court annulled results of the first round of presidential election after security documents were declasified and said the whole process must be rerun, it said in a statement on Friday.
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