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Liam Proud

@liamproud.bsky.social
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Reuters Breakingviews

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Reposted by Liam Proud
Reuters Breakingviews @breakingviews.reuters.com · 30/09/2026
How and why UBS could leave Switzerland www.breakingviews.com/columns/big-... @liamproud.bsky.social
breakingviews.com
How and why UBS could leave Switzerland
Finance Minister ​Karin Keller-Sutter says the $153 ⁠bln bank is ​unlikely to quit ​its home country despite stricter capital rules. ​Moving to the ​US would involve costs ‌and ⁠risks. Yet there are w...
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Reposted by Liam Proud
Peter Thal Larsen @petertl.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
@liamproud.bsky.social nails it
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Liam Proud @liamproud.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
UBS effectively ​has three options: stay put, shift its headquarters to a friendlier domicile, or seek a deal with an overseas partner. The latter two scenarios could overlap. www.breakingviews.com/columns/big-...
breakingviews.com
How and why UBS could leave Switzerland
Finance Minister ​Karin Keller-Sutter says the $153 ⁠bln bank is ​unlikely to quit ​its home country despite stricter capital rules. ​Moving to the ​US would involve costs ‌and ⁠risks. Yet there are w...
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Liam Proud @liamproud.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The doomed quest for a perpetual-motion machine led to many weird and wonderful contraptions. So has the quest for perpetual private equity. www.reuters.com/commentary/b...
reuters.com
Breakingviews - COMMENTARY: Buyout barons’ forever funds have mortal flaws
Blackstone, ​KKR, EQT and peers ⁠have raised $100 ​bln for perpetual ​private-equity vehicles. Yet no two look alike, and ​performance is ​patchy so far. With ‌cashing ⁠out the only option for investo...
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Reposted by Liam Proud
Reuters Breakingviews @breakingviews.reuters.com · 26/08/2026
Why big banks are going global once again www.breakingviews.com/columns/cons... @liamproud.bsky.social
breakingviews.com
Why big banks are going global once again
After 2008, ‌many lenders like NatWest retrenched to their home countries. Banks like $160 bln ​BBVA, which kept a geographic ​sprawl, were penalised. The international discount ⁠is now fading, which ...
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Reposted by Liam Proud
Peter Thal Larsen @petertl.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Elon Musk's personal fortune is now equivalent to more than 4% of U.S. GDP, @robcyran.bsky.social calculates. John D. Rockefeller managed less than half that figure when he died in 1937. www.breakingviews.com/columns/cons...
Musk’s hefty stake has lifted his wealth to $1.4 ‌trillion, according to Forbes, equivalent to more than 4% of U.S. GDP. Even the barons of the 19th-century Gilded Age, nicknamed for its rampant inequality, can hardly compare.
Relative to the size of the economy, Musk's hoard is over twice as large as John D Rockefeller’s at his death ​in 1937. As with the Standard Oil founder, such an astonishing sum confers immense power.
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Liam Proud @liamproud.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Why ASML the monopolist doesn’t act like one @jen-johnson.bsky.social www.breakingviews.com/columns/cons...
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Liam Proud @liamproud.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
What is Elon Musk's imagination worth? www.breakingviews.com/calculators/...
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Reposted by Liam Proud
Gabe Rubin @gaberubin.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
What's SpaceX really worth? Toggle away on Breakingviews' calculator www.breakingviews.com/calculators/...
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Reposted by Liam Proud
Reuters Breakingviews @breakingviews.reuters.com · 19/05/2026
StanChart starts bank AI job cull with a whimper - www.breakingviews.com/columns/brea... @liamproud.bsky.social
breakingviews.com
StanChart starts bank AI job cull with a whimper
Despite unveiling a 15% cut ​to back-office staff, which CEO Bill Winters described as
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Liam Proud @liamproud.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
AI bubble? Highest-rated Big Tech stock (12-month fwd PE) is Apple, i.e. the least AI-exposed... Meta and Microsoft in line with, or at a discount to, the S&P 500...
A line chart with a time series of Big Tech stocks' price-earnings multiples, with the latest values showing Apple at 32, Amazon at 29, Alphabet at 28, Nvidia at 25, Microsoft at 21, S&P 500 at 21, and Meta at 19
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Liam Proud @liamproud.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
Middle Eastern oil🛢️exporters need a plan B. Building new pipelines, to get around the Strait of Hormuz, could cost $55 bln. Here's why it might be a sound investment for Saudi, UAE and Qatar, by @georgehay.bsky.social www.reuters.com/commentary/b...
A map of the Gulf showing existing energy pipelines and a proposed new super express route, which would travel north to south from Kuwait along the east of Saudi Arabia before splitting in two to reach separate ports in southern Oman
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Liam Proud @liamproud.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
UK gov AI Security Institute's verdict on Anthropic’s Claude Mythos www.aisi.gov.uk/blog/our-eva...
A screenshot of text that reads: Mythos Preview’s success on one cyber range indicates that is at least capable of autonomously attacking small, weakly defended and vulnerable enterprise systems where access to a network has been gained. However, our ranges have important differences from real-world environments that make them easier targets. They lack security features that are often present, such as active defenders and defensive tooling. There are also no penalties for the model for undertaking actions that would trigger security alerts. This means we cannot say for sure whether Mythos Preview would be able to attack well-defended systems.
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Liam Proud @liamproud.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Masayoshi Son represents fragile link in AI chain www.breakingviews.com/columns/big-...
breakingviews.com
Masayoshi Son represents fragile link in AI chain
His SoftBank ⁠empire has been ​integral to OpenAI ​achieving an $840 bln valuation. It puts the ​ChatGPT developer ​in a precarious spot. The ‌Japanese ⁠billionaire’s company is running short on finan...
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Reposted by Liam Proud
Reuters Breakingviews @breakingviews.reuters.com · 17/03/2026
Gulf money will boost Europe's defence startups www.reuters.com/markets/asia... @georgehay.bsky.social
reuters.com
Breakingviews - Gulf money will boost Europe's defence startups
With the ​UAE alone hit by ⁠2,000 Iranian strikes ​in two weeks, ​regional hubs like Dubai need better ways ​to repel unmanned ​craft. Firms like Germany's ‌TYTAN ⁠and Ukraine's SkyFall could meet tha...
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Reposted by Liam Proud
Reuters Breakingviews @breakingviews.reuters.com · 12/03/2026
How insider-trading fears harm prediction markets www.reuters.com/commentary/b... @jen-johnson.bsky.social
reuters.com
Breakingviews - How insider-trading fears harm prediction markets
Six Polymarket accounts may ⁠have made $1.2 ​mln betting on the ​ouster of Iran’s leader, in trades funded ​hours before ​an air strike killed him. ‌Worries ⁠about unfairly clued-up counterparties may...
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Liam Proud @liamproud.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
"What emerges may be a wounded Iran, but a bleeding Iran could prove just as dangerous -- and perhaps more unpredictable -- than the establishment that entered this conflict." www.reuters.com/world/middle...
reuters.com
Iran bets on endurance, energy disruption to outlast US, Israel
Iran's strategy is stark: Unleash drones and missiles, cut vital energy routes and jolt markets.
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Reposted by Liam Proud
Reuters Breakingviews @breakingviews.reuters.com · 02/03/2026
Banks’ capital steroid use warrants extra scrutiny www.breakingviews.com/columns/big-... @liamproud.bsky.social
breakingviews.com
Banks’ capital steroid use warrants extra scrutiny
Lenders from Barclays to BNP have struck 'risk transfer' deals covering $885 bln of loans, flattering their equity ratios. The European market could double in size. As usage grows, though, so does the...
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Reposted by Liam Proud
Peter Thal Larsen @petertl.bsky.social · 21/02/2026
For all the talk of cryptocurrencies going mainstream, this is the wobbly pillar on which the edifice rests: Tether’s stablecoin has a shrinking cash buffer and has parked more of its assets in bitcoin, gold and other illiquid investments. Via @liamproud.bsky.social www.reuters.com/commentary/b...
Chart of Tether’s equity ratio
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Reposted by Liam Proud
Reuters Breakingviews @breakingviews.reuters.com · 20/02/2026
Stablecoin giant is crypto’s fragile foundation www.breakingviews.com/columns/big-... @liamproud.bsky.social
breakingviews.com
Stablecoin giant is crypto’s fragile foundation
Tether, with $184 bln in issue, dominates dollar-pegged tokens. Yet its equity buffer has shrunk while investments backing the coin are riskier. As bitcoin falls, the risks of a panic are rising. That...
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Liam Proud @liamproud.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Bitcoin ETF holdings are massively under water. Separately, half of all bitcoin in circulation is now worth less than its most recent on-chain purchase price
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Liam Proud @liamproud.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Bitcoin now trails German, UK and U.S. stocks over a two-year period. Gap much bigger (in stock markets' favour) if you include dividends, which this chart doesn't
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Liam Proud @liamproud.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
Artificial intelligence will hurt incumbent software, data and professional services companies. But it won't destroy them outright. At least, that's what public-market investors seem to think www.breakingviews.com/columns/big-...
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Liam Proud @liamproud.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
YouTube is eating TV (streamers too) - and there's not much that traditional broadcasters can do about it @jen-johnson.bsky.social www.reuters.com/commentary/b...
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Reposted by Liam Proud
Cato Institute @cato.org · 03/02/2026
The US immigrant population generated more in taxes than they received in benefits from all levels of government every year from 1994 to 2023. The Cato study provides the first-ever 30-year analysis of the fiscal effects of immigration on government budgets. ow.ly/jy8a50Y8kM3
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Reposted by Liam Proud
Reuters Breakingviews @breakingviews.reuters.com · 26/01/2026
CVC pays up for a more credible growth story www.breakingviews.com/columns/brea... @liamproud.bsky.social
breakingviews.com
CVC pays up for a more credible growth story
The Europe-focused buyout giant has agreed to take over US credit shop Marathon for up to $1.6 bln. The price looks rich. But CVC President Peter Rutland at least gets a business that will boost his f...
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Liam Proud @liamproud.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
What Ukraine’s resilient banks can teach Zelenskiy @pierrebri.bsky.social www.reuters.com/commentary/b...
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Liam Proud @liamproud.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Could Europe sell its $14 trln of US financial assets to pressure Trump on Greenland? Not really www.breakingviews.com/columns/brea...
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Reposted by Liam Proud
Peter Thal Larsen @petertl.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
It's the final day of the 13 Days of Predictions from @breakingviews.reuters.com. Here's my recap: www.reuters.com/commentary/b... And download the full e-book here: newslink.breakingviews.com/join/5aq/pre...
reuters.com
Breakingviews - Gain and pain will battle for leading role in 2026
In 2025, tech optimism overpowered tariff gloom to keep economies growing and markets buoyant. In the coming 12 months, state stimulus and corporate exuberance will again clash with political dysfunct...
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Reposted by Liam Proud
Pierre Briançon @pierrebri.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Introducing ‘Predictions 2026’, a new e-book from Breakingviews laying out the deals, companies, people and market moves that will shape the year ahead. Access the book 👉 reut.rs/3YDKKwu Or read articles online 👉 reut.rs/45puKSz
reut.rs
As the world enters 2026, Breakingviews columnists map out how powerful forces of macroeconomic stimulus, exuberance over artificial intelligence and corporate dealmaking could interact with tensions between great powers, financial gravity and political dysfunction in the coming 12 months.
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Reposted by Liam Proud
George Hay @georgehay.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
The biggest M&A deal ever. A crypto bailout. Just some of the things Breakingviews columnists predict for 2026 in a new e-book, ‘Far Side of the Boom’. Access the book 👉 reut.rs/3YDKKwu Or read articles online 👉 reut.rs/45puKSz
reut.rs
As the world enters 2026, Breakingviews columnists map out how powerful forces of macroeconomic stimulus, exuberance over artificial intelligence and corporate dealmaking could interact with tensions between great powers, financial gravity and political dysfunction in the coming 12 months.
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Liam Proud @liamproud.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Introducing ‘Predictions 2026’, our e-book laying out the deals, companies, people and market moves that will shape the year ahead. Access the book 👉 reut.rs/3YDKKwu Or read articles online 👉 reut.rs/45puKSz
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Liam Proud @liamproud.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
Corrective to the Big Tech AI leverage fears: Even if all next year’s capex was funded with debt, the five hyperscalers' combined borrowings would still be just 1 times EBITDA. And aside from Oracle, CDS have not risen v much www.reuters.com/commentary/b...
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Pierre Briançon @pierrebri.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
Commentary | The case for a big, one-off wealth tax www.reuters.com/commentary/b...
reuters.com
Breakingviews - The case for a big, one-off wealth tax
Cash-strapped Western states must invest in their militaries and green energy. With the top 1% increasing its grip on wealth, and paying little tax, soaking the rich looks justified. But a chunky one-off levy makes more sense than an annual charge, which is vulnerable to dodging.
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Reposted by Liam Proud
Reuters Breakingviews @breakingviews.reuters.com · 24/09/2025
Tether megaraise may mark peak of stablecoin party - www.breakingviews.com/columns/brea... @liamproud.bsky.social
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Reposted by Liam Proud
Peter Thal Larsen @petertl.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
For several years I've written a weekly note to the @breakingviews.reuters.com team, picking out key insights and ideas. Some colleagues urged me to share these musings more widely. So behold The Week in Breakingviews, free in your inbox each Saturday. Sign up here: www.reuters.com/newsletters/...
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Reposted by Liam Proud
Reuters Breakingviews @breakingviews.reuters.com · 18/09/2025
UBS hardy valuation jars with bank's capital gripe - www.breakingviews.com/columns/brea...
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Liam Proud @liamproud.bsky.social · 09/09/2025
OpenAI gives fair warning to masochistic investors www.breakingviews.com/columns/cons...
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Liam Proud @liamproud.bsky.social · 28/08/2025
Combined capex at Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta will surpass ALL listed American AND European utilities companies combined (same for energy, consumer, industrials etc.) [per UBS]
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Reposted by Liam Proud
Reuters @reuters.com · 25/08/2025
BREAKING: Israeli strikes on Nasser Hospital in Gaza killed at least 15 people, including three journalists, one of whom worked for Reuters, Palestinian health officials said reut.rs/45OFPfr
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Liam Proud @liamproud.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
Dear retail traders: 'can’t lose’ means can’t win www.reuters.com/commentary/b...
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Reuters Breakingviews @breakingviews.reuters.com · 19/08/2025
European defence stocks send false peace signal - www.breakingviews.com/columns/brea... - @liamproud.bsky.social
breakingviews.com
European defence stocks send false peace signal
Rheinmetall, Renk and peers collectively shed $15 bln of value, or 5%, after a White House summit involving Ukraine, Germany, France and Britain. Toppy valuations explain the fall, rather than expectations of less fighting. The stocks still imply soaring defence budgets.
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Reposted by Liam Proud
Reuters Breakingviews @breakingviews.reuters.com · 31/07/2025
Apollo-Brookfield UK pension race has two winners - www.breakingviews.com/columns/brea... - @liamproud.bsky.social
breakingviews.com
Apollo-Brookfield UK pension race has two winners
Weeks after the US group paid $8 bln for a British retirement manager, its Canadian peer agreed a $3 bln takeover of Just Group. Brookfield’s price is high. But Britain’s annuity market is growing and...
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Reposted by Liam Proud
Reuters Breakingviews @breakingviews.reuters.com · 30/07/2025
Ideal new HSBC chair would be opposite of its last - www.breakingviews.com/columns/brea... - @liamproud.bsky.social
breakingviews.com
Ideal new HSBC chair would be opposite of its last
Outgoing board head Mark Tucker churned through CEOs and steered the $220 bln bank’s vast overhaul. Now, with the right boss and strategy in place, HSBC could use a diplomatic Asia expert happy to tak...
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Reposted by Liam Proud
Reuters Breakingviews @breakingviews.reuters.com · 30/07/2025
Evercore’s Robey Warshaw deal sums up key-man risk - www.breakingviews.com/columns/brea... - @liamproud.bsky.social
breakingviews.com
Evercore’s Robey Warshaw deal sums up key-man risk
The Wall Street firm is paying $196 mln for the UK boutique co-founded by Simon Robey. The danger in such transactions is that rainmakers leave. A six-year earnout helps, but for the buyer the upside ...
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Pierre Briançon @pierrebri.bsky.social · 29/07/2025
Europe’s absurd US investment pledge brings risks www.breakingviews.com/columns/cons...
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Reposted by Liam Proud
Reuters Breakingviews @breakingviews.reuters.com · 23/07/2025
Orcel’s UniCredit M&A whirlwind turns into a fog - www.breakingviews.com/columns/brea... - @liamproud.bsky.social
breakingviews.com
Orcel’s UniCredit M&A whirlwind turns into a fog
The $110 bln bank’s boss dropped his offer for Italy’s BPM but seems set on holding 29% of Germany’s Commerzbank. That leaves two questions hanging: whether a local tie-up still happens; and whether C...
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Reposted by Liam Proud
Reuters @reuters.com · 22/07/2025
From Breakingviews - Breakingviews - Big Pharma pioneers the TOFU tariff trade reut.rs/4mbWb8x
reut.rs
Breakingviews - Big Pharma pioneers the TOFU tariff trade
Markets reflect a widespread belief that the US president always chickens out on trade measures. AstraZeneca’s plan to invest $50 bln stateside implies that sector-specific levies are inevitable. The drug group and rivals like Roche are assuming Trump Occasionally Follows Up.
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Pierre Briançon @pierrebri.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
French PM Bayrou has likened his task reducing his country's heavy public debt load to "climbing the Himalayas." His damp squib of a budget shows him stuck in base camp. www.breakingviews.com/columns/cons...
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Reuters Breakingviews @breakingviews.reuters.com · 10/07/2025
Jane Street’s India spat touches regulatory nerve - www.breakingviews.com/columns/big-... - @liamproud.bsky.social
breakingviews.com
Jane Street’s India spat touches regulatory nerve
The US firm, with $20 bln of 2024 revenue, is one of the biggest of the post-2008 financial giants that have replaced banks as key market-makers. As shown by a bust-up with India, regulators are now f...
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