iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 9h

New Kansas Senate polling average up at 50+1 (not sure I believe these polls FWIW, but the data's the data) fiftyplusone.news/polls/senate...

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 30/09/2026

Subscribe to Strength In Numbers today for unparalleled Value Above Replacement www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe/

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 30/09/2026

Strength In Numbers called this eight months ago www.gelliottmorris.com/p/meet-ameri... (from The Bulwark's latest Focus Group pod)

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 29/09/2026

Starting to think it’s part of CNN’s social media strategy to keep doing this extraordinarily dumb take (“90% of people who tell us they like to eat apples also enjoy apple cider”) as a way to get the president’s attention and thus more clicks. Harry knows better

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 29/09/2026

We have a new high poll for Dems AFAIK of D+16 on the generic ballot among likely voters. I think pollsters are playing kind of fast and loose with these filters to only use decided voters but still. Holy hell

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 28/09/2026

Shot, chaser. This is why you subscribe to Strength In Numbers, folks!! www.gelliottmorris.com/welcome

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 28/09/2026

I can't wait to get my 'goodies' from the government

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 28/09/2026

i am not sure an ad that says "paid for by the U.S. government" is going to have the effect the president wants it to have...

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 27/09/2026

the 1960 congressional map was wild

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 23/09/2026

Yes. here you go. Trump’s approval is significantly below where it was in 2018

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 23/09/2026

This is before adding CNN or Marist fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 23/09/2026

Trump's approval rating has hit a new low of 33% in our new Strength In Numbers/ @verasight.io poll just out this AM. POTUS's disapproval is 63%, for a net of -30. Democrats lead by 10 points among likely voters on the generic ballot Read more: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09-23...

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 21/09/2026

sorry didn't have time to post earlier when this happened but: fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 18/09/2026

When one party releases a butt load of internals that tends to predict the national environment favors them. This year Democratic internal polls account for the largest share of internals on record — more than in 2018, 2006 and 2008

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 18/09/2026

I appreciate Matthew Yglesias owning up to his worldview that calling out attacks on democracy is "resistance maximalism." A lot of people in the mainstream press aren't as honest about the institutional bias toward both-sidesing democracy for fear of alienating Republicans, but he just says it!

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 18/09/2026

Historically the out-party wins about 70% of races Cook calls toss-up at 45 days before the election.

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 17/09/2026

notice how these people who were formerly all-in on the mythical power of ideological moderation have changed their tack and entire organizational orientation after discovering the wisdom of the ancients that most voters are not ideological at all. now it’s all about “heterodoxy.”

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 16/09/2026

*sorry, 53 for the Senate. also here's this:

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 16/09/2026

We do this! Charts at the bottom of the linked page. D+10 is 245 seats in the House and 52 in the Senate fiftyplusone.news

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 15/09/2026

and of course, the "too far left/right" question is going viral, but not this one?

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 15/09/2026

NYT wants you to believe that 48 and 50 are outside of the margin of error with each other, but they are not. Good of Cohn to admit that this question is not very meaningful in terms of translating to outcomes, but then why treat the Q as if it means anything? www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-06-12...

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 15/09/2026

We are approaching official Spooky Probability TM territory in the 50+1 House forecast. I guess this is what you get when the generic ballot is at D+7 two months out and the president has a 35% approval rating fiftyplusone.news/forecast/house

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 14/09/2026

Have had a few requests to update the Trump approval graphics at www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data . Ask and you shall receive! (Our long-term plan is to adopt these with custom charts that live update at FiftyPlusOne.)

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 14/09/2026

Trump is taking the 10% side of a 90-10 issue on AI/data centers. Talked about this on the podcast two weeks ago www.gelliottmorris.com/p/donald-tru...

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 13/09/2026

Democrats hit 50% on average in House generic ballot polls for the first time today, per our average at FiftyPlusOne.news

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 11/09/2026

We have updated our House election forecast with the new old congressional district boundaries in Missouri. fpo.news

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 11/09/2026

www.thenation.com/article/poli...

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 11/09/2026

missouri better not mess with this map again

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 11/09/2026

didn't work for Biden, won't work for trump fiftyplusone.news/forecast/house

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 10/09/2026

Here’s my report on the utility of “Trumpapalooza,” using polling data from over 11,000 interviews this year. Low-turnout Republicans are not die-hard Trump supporters sitting on the sidelines. He doesn’t understand this, and has scores a big own-goal www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09-09...

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 10/09/2026

(i can't QT Jamelle so screenshotting) FWIW, in our latest forecast, Dems get 52+ seats roughly 41% of the time. fpo.news

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 09/09/2026

Here is a screenshot from a new CNN/SSRS poll in Michigan. It shows that Democratic voters are 14 percentage points more likely than Republicans to say they are extremely/very motivated to vote in November, 87% vs 73%. s3.documentcloud.org/documents/28...

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 09/09/2026

GOP strategists live in an alternative reality (on Twitter/X) where Trump's approval rating among his 2024 voters is 100%. In our polling (and Pew's), it's closer to 75%. Just last week, Navigator came out showing 1/5 of 2024 Trump voters regret their vote for him! www.gelliottmorris.com/p/poll

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 09/09/2026

New YouGov/Economist poll out this AM has Democrats up 11 points on the House vote among likely voters. This is with named candidates, not the usual "generic ballot," which in my testing with CES data is typically more accurate in forecasting outcomes d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 09/09/2026

Missed this: Trump approval now solidly in the 35s, as the GOP launches its "Trumpapalooza" midterm convention in Dallas. What a stupid idea fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 05/09/2026

Good article, just out, from the Times. Mentions the public as a thermostat + cyclical nature of party ID. (Stops short of saying the current environment was easy to predict, though that’s true & some of us did!). Covered this on the podcast on Thurs: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/donald-tru...

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 04/09/2026

New at FiftyPlusOne: Americans rate Trump and billionaires/CEOs as the most corrupt people in the country blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/the-us-isn...

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 03/09/2026

the real Trump Derangement Syndrom was thinking his agenda was ever popular

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 03/09/2026

looks about right— for a poll from Arkansas

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 02/09/2026

lmao waiting for comment from the Census Bureau

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 02/09/2026

This (from Tom Wood) suggests more than just the typical thermostatic backlash is happening right now. In sixteen months, Trump and Republicans have turned the GOP’s largest party ID advantage this century into a tie for its biggest deficit

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 31/08/2026

donald trump is actively trying to help as many democratic senators as possible get elected

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 31/08/2026

wrong projects.gelliottmorris.com/midterms-app...

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 30/08/2026

Did a poll on this in February. Expanding the Court is popular with both Democrats and independents. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/two-thirds...

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 30/08/2026

I’m also doing something no other pollster is doing, and publishing sensitivity analysis to weighting benchmarks including past vote and NPORS party ID (with MOE from Pew propagated through)

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