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Tom Swetnam

@firescar.bsky.social
3.9K followers 1.4K following 79 posts

Tree-ring scientist, forest ecologist, forest fires, climate and human interactions. Regents Professor Emeritus Univ AZ; home in New Mexico.

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Reposted by Tom Swetnam
Benjamin Cook @dustybowl.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Missed this article, with great comments from @thirstygecko.bsky.social and Brad Udall (among others): www.sciencenews.org/article/unit...
sciencenews.org
Will the U.S. megadrought ever end?
For 27 years, the Southwest has been gripped by a historic drought. Scientists think it might be here to stay.
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Jussi T. Eronen @jussiteronen.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Sometimes, the way the world works is weird, and the true tale sounds like invented stories.. You can't make this up. www.popsci.com/science/lewi...
popsci.com
Lewis and Clark’s mercury-laced poop helped archaeologists trace their expedition
Welcome to a poisonous trail of number two.
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences @pnas.org · 11/09/2026
A study using thousands of tree-ring sites around the world suggests that as the climate warms, more trees will experience growth constraints from dryness by 2100, limiting carbon sequestration. In PNAS: ow.ly/oI6k50ZMEbn
Douglas-fir, one of the studied tree species, shows growth suppression at both very high and very low vapor pressure deficits.
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences @pnas.org · 11/09/2026
One of the most-viewed PNAS articles in the last week is “Recent high-severity wildfires in a dry-conifer landscape are unprecedented over five centuries and foretell future forest loss.” Read now: ow.ly/v1oR50ZM4BE For more trending articles, visit ow.ly/pH5050ZM4Aj.
Dry-conifer forest loss from high-severity fires in the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico (1995–2023). (A) Photograph of dry-conifer forest from St. Peter’s Dome Lookout, facing south. (B) Repeat photograph showing the near-complete conifer forest loss (mortality and lack of regeneration) following two high-severity fires (1996 Dome Fire and 2011 Las Conchas Fire).
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GrumpyUncleSean🔥 @grumpyunclesean.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
1/5 New paper in PNAS led by Andreas Wion! 🔥🌍🧪 For centuries, dry-conifer forests in the western U.S. burned frequently, but mostly at low severity, meaning most trees were not killed by fire. Read on for details ...
doi.org
PNAS
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - an authoritative source of high-impact, original research that broadly spans...
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Lelani Arris @arthurdent2022.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
“Almost a third of housing nationwide today is situated in the wildland-urban interface, according to 2020 Forest Service research. As climate change primes the landscape for wildfires, these places are increasingly in harm’s way.”
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Allison Gill @muellershewrote.com · 30/07/2026
When Justice is blind, bad guys take the fifth. When justice is corrupt, good guys take the fifth. Feel free to share.
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Jessica McCarty @jmccartygeo.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
As much as this is a water planet, our Earth is also a fire planet. Every continent (except Antarctica) has fire seasons. Climate change and mismanagement have made fire risk and fire danger worse. We can make it better, while still holding onto fire as a needed treatment for the land.
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 24/07/2026
The claim that "pink elephants cannot fly" is not an evidence-based claim because studies have not ruled out the possibility that pink elephants can fly. 🙄
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Dr. Thomas Ronge @thomasronge.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Pretty cool and dramatic NASA animation showing the long-range transport of 2026 Canadian wildfire smoke.
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Mike Flannigan @mikeflannigan.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Graphs showing cumulative area burned and carbon emissions in Ontario. Note in terms of area burned 2021 is the top spot but 2026 is top spot in terms of carbon emissions. Both are correct. The reason for this is that the 2026 fires are more severe - consumed more biomass (greater depth of burn).
Cumulative area burned (hectares) in Ontario.Cumulative total carbon emissions from wildfires in Ontario 2003-2026
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Brian J. Enquist @bjenquist.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Sad to hear of the passing of Robert Ricklefs - a giant of Ecology who simultaneously pushed forward big ideas at multiple biological levels yet took time for detailed natural history .. McGill does a nice job summarizing his impressive contributions 🌐🧪 dynamicecology.wordpress.com/2026/06/11/r...
dynamicecology.wordpress.com
Robert Ricklefs – in memoriam
Robert Ricklefs, a giant of ecology, passed away on Sunday. It is hard to overstate the extensive impact Bob had on the field. He was elected a member of the National Academy of Sciences in the US,…
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
Prescribed burns and biomass removal saves $3.73 in economic damage for every dollar spent. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Wildfire damages and the cost-effective role of forest fuel treatments
Wildfires are among the most pressing environmental challenges of the 21st century, intensified by the accumulation of forest fuels after a century of fire suppression policies. Although fuel-reductio...
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CNN @cnn.com · 25/05/2026
Nearly 30,000 wildfires have ignited in the US so far this year, the most in nearly two decades. Here's what to expect heading into summer: cnn.it/4e3jGPC
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Jared Dahl Aldern @jdaldern.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
(2/2) (from chapter 8, “At the Foot of Wâavêmâ Hemish Fire Management in Northern New Mexico,“ by @pyroos.bsky.social, @firescar.bsky.social, John Galvan, Paul Tosa, Chris Toya, T. J. Ferguson, Matthew J. Liebmann, and John R. Welch osupress.oregonstate.edu/book/landkee...
osupress.oregonstate.edu
Landkeeping
With rising temperatures, longer summers, drought, and more wildfires occurring in the United States and Canada, there is growing interest in the impact and efficacy of Indigenous fire and cultural bu...
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John Schwartz @jswatz.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
This move is so incredibly dumb, and ultimately so destructive to our understanding of extreme weather and of climate change, that it could only have come from the Trump administration. Truly dangerous idiocy. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/c...
nytimes.com
Trump Administration Readies Plans to Dismantle Renowned Science Lab
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Emily Dolhansky @emilydolhansky.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
but we gotta turn over public lands to private interests because they’re bEtTeR aT mAnAgEmEnT, right?
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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Nothing to see here; just the division that funds (or not) all of us in the environmental sciences, including atmosphere, ocean, ice, Earth, climate, hydrology, whatever.
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Tom Swetnam @firescar.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Last, this study demonstrates (again) that fire scar networks in Southwestern ponderosa pine dominant fire regimes can provide highly reliable and accurate estimates of fire extent and related fire regime metrics (e.g., fire frequency, fire rotation, etc.). 6/6
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Tom Swetnam @firescar.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
This work demonstrates the potential to quantify past areas burned at regional to continental scales. This opens the door for quantifying long term and fine to broad-scale fire effects on forests and carbon dynamics. 5/6 Open access link, again: esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
New methods provide a 300‐year perspective on modern area burned in two wilderness areas of the southwest United States
Climate change, expanding human ignitions, and increased fuels from fire exclusion are driving increases in area burned and fire severity in dry conifer forests of the western United States. Increasi...
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Tom Swetnam @firescar.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
All models performed very well, demonstrating that even relatively low spatial density fire scar networks can be used to quantitatively and accurately estimate area burned over time. Prescribed fire programs in these two wilderness areas have effectively restored the pre-1900 fire regimes. 4/6
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Tom Swetnam @firescar.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
This is a new and important advance in dendrochronology, because, to my knowledge, this is the first time a spatial ecological process has been reconstructed using tree-ring event networks at these scales, resolutions, and with very high levels of statistical accuracy (r-squared = 0.88 to 0.98). 3/6
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Tom Swetnam @firescar.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Spatial networks of fire scarred trees and twentieth-century burned area observations in the form of mapped fire perimeters (fire atlases) were used to calibrate and validate reconstructions of area burned in absolute values, that is hectares burned per year, extending back to the early 1700s. 2/6
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Tom Swetnam @firescar.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
My colleagues Calvin Farris (NPS) and Ellis Margolis (USGS) led a landmark study in paleofire reconstruction. In addition to showing that fire management can restore past fire regimes, the demonstrated methods are a first in dendrochronology. 1/6 esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
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University of New Mexico Press @unmpress.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
CONGRATULATIONS to Thomas W. Swetnam (@firescar.bsky.social), author of The Jemez Mountains: A Cultural and Natural History! WINNER of the 2025 Southwest Book Award from the Border Regional Library Association 📚💙 #NewMexico
The Jemez Mountains
A Cultural and Natural History
by Thomas W. Swetnam
Winner of the 2025 Southwest Book Award from the Border Regional Library Association
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
Well, it's now official (per NOAA): Dec (and Nov-Dec) 2025 were the warmest such periods on record for Western U.S. (and also for most individual Western states). It has been an extraordinarily sustained period of winter warmth, and this eerily balmy winter continues into Jan.
Map from NOAA Climate at a Glance depicting the relative rank of Nov-Dec 2025 temperatures on a county-by-county basis. Most Western U.S. counties experienced their warmest Nov-Dec on record, as depicted by all locations dark red in color on the map.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 11/01/2026
Snowpack across much of West was at record or near-record low levels for most of Dec. Despite recent local recovery--esp. in central/southern Sierra in California--it remains extremely low most everywhere else. Record low snowpack may return by later in Jan w/this pattern.
Map (from NRCS) showing current snow water equivalent (SWE) anomalies at numerous points throughout the Western United States. Nearly all points are well below average--with many under 50% of usual mid-Jan values--except in the Central/Southern Sierra and across portions of the Northern Rockies (where values are near average, or even locally above).
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Tom Swetnam @firescar.bsky.social · 09/01/2026
The continued destruction of science by the US administration is beyond appalling and disgusting. This includes the withdrawal of the the US from IAI, Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research. This is a massive mistake and loss for all.
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gavin jones @ecologyofgavin.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
In December I received a deeply meaningful recognition for my research from AFE, especially to cap off the unhinged year that was 2025. I dedicate this award to all scientists - especially my fellow feds - who have been vilified and whose work has not been valued. @afe-fireecology.bsky.social
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
New in @globalchangebio.bsky.social: thoughts from me & Jilmarie Stephens on recent study confirming that vegetation accumulation-to-desiccation cycles induced by wet-to-dry climate transitions increase wildfire severity in California's non-forested biomes. onlinelibrary.wiley....
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 17/12/2025
Threatening to dismantle NCAR, our premier weather and climate research institute (apparently) because Colorado refuses to pardon someone accused of tampering with voting machines is a sad example of our current kakistocracy in action… www.nytimes.com/2025...
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
Unbelievable. This would be a terrible blow to American science, writ large. It would decimate not only climate research, but also the kind of weather, wildfire, and disaster research that has underpinned half a century of progress in prediction, early warning, and increased resilience.
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Rep. Joe Neguse @neguse.house.gov · 17/12/2025
A deeply dangerous — and blatantly retaliatory action against Colorado — by the Trump administration. NCAR is one of the most renowned scientific facilities in the WORLD — where scientists perform cutting-edge research everyday. We will fight this reckless directive with every legal tool we have.
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Katharine Hayhoe @katharinehayhoe.com · 17/12/2025
NCAR is quite literally our global mothership. Everyone who works in climate and weather has passed through its doors and benefited from its incredible resources. Dismantling NCAR is like taking a sledgehammer to the keystone holding up our scientific understanding of the planet. Unbelievable.
usatoday.com
Trump moves to dismantle major US climate research center in Colorado
The Trump administration is breaking up the National Center for Atmospheric Research, taking aim at one of the world's leading climate research labs.
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Rich Condon @richcondon.bsky.social · 17/11/2025
As we all watch Ken Burn’s American Revolution on Public Broadcasting Service (PBS) this evening, remember that federal funding for this public programming has been cut by a president who aspires to be like the king patriots separated from nearly 250 years ago.
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Meade Krosby @meadekrosby.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
Prohibited activities include advising Chinese graduate students. For reference, a recent Georgetown report estimated 16% of STEM graduate students in the US are Chinese nationals. This would take out entire fields at the knees, which is perhaps the point.
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juli g pausas @jgpausas.bsky.social · 01/11/2025
Final version now available #AmJBot @botsocamerica.bsky.social Sequoia & Sequoiadendron: Two paleoendemic megatrees with different adaptive responses to high-severity fires bsapubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/... Plants are not adapted to fire, but to fire regimes 🧪🌍🔥🌳🌿🪴 #ecoevo #wildfire
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Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
Dr. Julie Edwards (@julieedtree.bsky.social) leads a new paper showing that high-resolution cellular-scale measurements (Quantitative Wood Anatomy) yield better temperature signals in Alaskan tree rings than even conventional MXD across all frequencies agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Resolution and Frequency‐Dependent Climate Signals in an Arctic Tree‐Ring Temperature Reconstruction of the Last Millennium
Tree-ring density measurement resolution affects low-frequency trends in temperature reconstructions High-resolution anatomical maximum latewood density has stronger correlations with instrumenta...
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Eos @eos.org · 25/10/2025
When it comes to famous holes in the ground, northern Arizona has two: the #GrandCanyon and #MeteorCrater. New research suggests that these famous depressions might, in fact, be linked.
eos.org
An Asteroid Impact May Have Led to Flooding near the Grand Canyon - Eos
There’s remarkable synchronicity between the timing of a paleolake in what is today Grand Canyon National Park and the formation of nearby Barringer Meteorite Crater.
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Jim Whittington🔥 @jimwhittington.bsky.social · 25/10/2025
Back in the day, I was working a fire near a fancy ski resort. This was when $30 million homes were still unfathomable to me. This guy, who kept bragging that he had the President's personal phone number, came up and said he was going to write a check to pay for all the firefighter meals. 1/
Photo of a ski resort with smoke rising above from the fire on the backside of the mountain. In the distance, a retardant drop is being made on a ridge.
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Marshall Shepherd @drshepherd2013.bsky.social · 17/10/2025
Must read to see how a noted Atmospheric Scientist shifted on climate change ...thank you @revkin.bsky.social revkin.substack.com/p/warming-wo...
revkin.substack.com
Warming Worries of a Once-Doubtful Climate Scientist
Mike Wallace says reality is bad enough. Catastrophe-versus-hoax framing obscures the momentous dangers from unabated greenhouse-gas heating.
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Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 12/10/2025
Increasing wildfire frequency decreases carbon storage and leads to regeneration failure in Alaskan boreal forests fireecology.springeropen.com/articles/10....
fireecology.springeropen.com
Increasing wildfire frequency decreases carbon storage and leads to regeneration failure in Alaskan boreal forests - Fire Ecology
Background The increasing size, severity, and frequency of wildfires is one of the most rapid ways climate warming could alter the structure and function of high-latitude ecosystems. Historically, boreal forests in western North America had fire return intervals (FRI) of 70–130 years, but shortened FRIs are becoming increasingly common under extreme weather conditions. Here, we quantified pre-fire and post-fire C pools and C losses and assessed post-fire seedling regeneration in long (> 70 years), intermediate (30–70 years), and short (< 30 years) FRIs, and triple (three fires in < 70 years) burns. As boreal forests store a significant portion of the global terrestrial carbon (C) pool, understanding the impacts of shortened FRIs on these ecosystems is critical for predicting the global C balance and feedbacks to climate. Results Using a spatially extensive dataset of 555 plots from 31 separate fires in Interior Alaska, our study demonstrates that shortened FRIs decrease the C storage capacity of boreal forests through loss of legacy C and regeneration failure. Total wildfire C emissions were similar among FRI classes, ranging from 2.5 to 3.5 kg C m−2. However, shortened FRIs lost proportionally more of their pre-fire C pools, resulting in substantially lower post-fire C pools than long FRIs. Shortened FRIs also resulted in the combustion of legacy C, defined as C that escaped combustion in one or more previous fires. We found that post-fire successional trajectories were impacted by FRI, with ~ 65% of short FRIs and triple burns experiencing regeneration failure. Conclusions Our study highlights the structural and functional vulnerability of boreal forests to increasing fire frequency. Shortened FRIs and the combustion of legacy C can shift boreal ecosystems from a net C sink or neutral to a net C source to the atmosphere and increase the risk of transitions to non-forested states. These changes could have profound implications for the boreal C-climate feedback and underscore the need for adaptive management strategies that prioritize the structural and functional resilience of boreal forest ecosystems to expected increases in fire frequency.
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Botanical Society of America @botsocamerica.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
🔥🌱 From the #AJB Special Issue: “Understanding novel #fire regimes using plant trait‐based approaches" 🌱🔥 #Sequoia and Sequoiadendron: Two paleoendemic megatrees with markedly different adaptive responses to recent high-severity fires By Jon Keeley & @jgpausas.bsky.social doi.org/10.1002/ajb2...
Although most trees in western USA conifer forests are killed by high intensity crown fires, most California coast redwoods survive by resprouting (photo by Jon Keeley, 2 years after the CZU Fire in Big Basin State Park).
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Dr. Crystal A. Kolden @pyrogeog.bsky.social · 02/10/2025
Published today: our new paper showing a 44-year trend of increasing global wildfire disasters (fatalities and economic losses) due to climate change-induced extreme weather. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Climate-linked escalation of societally disastrous wildfires
Climate change and land mismanagement are creating increasingly fire-prone built and natural environments. However, despite worsening fire seasons, evidence is lacking globally for trends in socially ...
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Mike Dettinger @mdettinger.bsky.social · 19/09/2025
National Academies of Science panel finds that: The EPA was right in 2009 (when it found that climate change driven by society’s emissions of greenhouse gases are endangering human health & lives), and that everything we've learned since has only made it more right. arstechnica.com/science/2025...
arstechnica.com
Despite congressional threat, National Academies releases new climate report
Things have changed since 2009: We’re more certain about the problems.
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Mike Dettinger @mdettinger.bsky.social · 19/09/2025
New Science Advances paper on the feedback loop between loss of snow feeding more wildfire, and wildfire resulting in earlier snowmelt. As to latter, in snow obs, under average conditions, snow melts earlier during 1st-yr postfire in 99%(!) of western snow zones. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Impact of current and warmer climate conditions on snow cover loss in burned forests
Wildfires are causing earlier snowmelt across the western US, and this effect would be exacerbated with projected warmer winters.
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Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
Changing Climate, Changing Fire: Understanding Ecosystem-Specific Fire–Climate Dynamics in Arizona and New Mexico journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
journals.ametsoc.org
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Daniel Malmer @malmer.com · 13/09/2025
This is an archived government report that found that “Since 1990, far-right extremists have committed far more ideologically motivated homicides than far-left or radical Islamist extremists.” It existed yesterday and is gone today.
web.archive.org
What NIJ Research Tells Us About Domestic Terrorism
Militant, nationalistic, white supremacist violent extremism has increased in the United States. In fact, the number of far-right attacks continues to outpace all other types of terrorism and domestic...
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Matthew Hurteau @mhurteau.bsky.social · 09/09/2025
The Garnet Fire has burned through a place I have worked since 2002. A place I hold dear. We knew this wasn't a matter of if, but when. Unfortunately the leadership on the Sierra National Forest didn't have the same urgency that we did. My eulogy for Teakettle. www.hurteaulab.org/blog/a-eulog...
hurteaulab.org
A Eulogy for Teakettle
Justice William O. Douglas, in his dissenting opinion of the Supreme Court’s decision in Sierra Club v. Morton, said “Contemporary public concern for protecting nature’s ecological equilibrium...
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Tom Swetnam @firescar.bsky.social · 07/09/2025
Our op-ed in the Santa Fe New Mexican today highlights the potential losses from closure of the nine US Forest Service Regional Offices, namely local leadership knowledge and capacity, experienced people, and priceless documentary records: www.santafenewmexican.com/opinion/my_v...
santafenewmexican.com
The legacy lost when Forest Service offices shut down
After 117 years of operation, the U.S. Forest Service’s Southwest Regional Office in Albuquerque is closing by order of the secretary of agriculture. Since 1908, this office has directed the
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