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Anti-Corruption Data Collective

@acdatacollective.bsky.social
2.5K followers 179 following 115 posts

A non-profit group of investigative journalists, data scientists, academics and policy experts working together to expose and undermine corruption. www.acdatacollective.org

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Reposted by Anti-Corruption Data Collective
Public Citizen @publiccitizen.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
OpenAI President Greg Brockman gave $12.5 MILLION to Trump's MAGA super PAC. Trump's admin announced a joint venture to invest billions into AI infrastructure. Palantir CEO Alexander Karp gave $1 million. Trump's admin has given Palantir major contracts. This is oligarchy.
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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
“Thanks to the proliferation of everything from anonymous shell companies to perpetual trusts, these wealthiest forces can now mask their riches from any investigators, regulators, journalists and others – and entrench the kind of aristocracy Americans have long chafed against.”
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PPLAAF @pplaaf.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
#Nigeria🇳🇬: Dig deeper into Dirty Deeds! Explore @pplaaf.bsky.social’s dedicated website for our investigative report to learn more about the names behind the deeds, their associates, and the details of their properties here ➡️ www.pplaaf.org/dirty-deeds-...
pplaaf.org
Dirty Deeds | Nigerian Officials US Properties Investigation
Dirty Deeds is a PPLAAF investigation into how top Nigerian officials bought a piece of America through US real estate.
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David Szakonyi @szakonyi.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
At @acdatacollective.bsky.social we helped uncover how 61 current and former Nigerian officials purchased over $271 million, mostly using cash Money laundering in US real estate has to gets back towards the top of the anti-corruption agenda www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlin...
premiumtimesng.com
61 Nigerian officials linked to $271 million US property holdings -Report
The investigation examined how wealth linked to Nigerian political and economic elites moved into the US real estate market and identified recurring risk factors in the acquisition of the properties.
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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Thrilled with this collaboration with @pplaaf.bsky.social! The report launched today details 284 US properties, collectively worth nearly $271 million, linked to 61 current and former high-level Nigerian officials, many of whom are implicated in corruption scandals.
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Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists @thebulletin.org · 17/09/2026
"Prediction markets are creating new nightmares for operational security," write @szakonyi.bsky.social, Michelle Kendler-Kretsch, and Michael Hornsby. They allow those with inside information to bet on national security issues, all while giving both allies and adversaries a possible heads-up.
buff.ly
Insiders are betting on war: How prediction markets are becoming a national security threat
Prediction markets allow those with insider information bet on national security issues, giving adversaries a potential heads-up.
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Nick Schwellenbach @schwellenbach.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
worth a read... by the @acdatacollective.bsky.social crew thebulletin.org/2026/09/insi...
thebulletin.org
Insiders are betting on war: How prediction markets are becoming a national security threat
Prediction markets allow those with insider information bet on national security issues, giving adversaries a potential heads-up.
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David Szakonyi @szakonyi.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
For less than $100, you can move the entire odds of most midterm election markets on Kalshi or Polymarket by $0.05 (or 5%). So if a candidate is at 40%, your small bet by itself could move them to 45% Any bettor can artificially help a campaign look more popular than it actually is
a plot showing how much money it costs to move prediction markets
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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Turns out, prediction markets are a surprisingly cheap to way to game the attention economy to benefit political candidates. Out latest analysis in @cnbc.com www.cnbc.com/2026/09/09/p...
cnbc.com
How much does it cost to move a midterm prediction market? Not much
Interested parties could seek to move prediction markets to give a perceived boost to a candidate who is struggling to gain momentum or attention.
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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
🔵 NEW FROM ACDC 97% of midterm prediction markets on the three big platforms can be moved 5 cents for under the maximum personal campaign contribution of $3500. Where a single user has already moved the price, the price usually did not snap back within 24 hours.
cnbc.com
How much does it cost to move a midterm prediction market? Not much
Interested parties could seek to move prediction markets to give a perceived boost to a candidate who is struggling to gain momentum or attention.
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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
German energy giant RWE takes $1.2B federal payout to abandon U.S. offshore wind projects. RWE then buys $900M stake in Louisana LNG from PE firm Stonepeak, whose CEO and co-founder is a big Trump donor.
washingtonpost.com
$900 million from a canceled wind deal will benefit a Trump donor
The Trump administration’s latest deal to abandon offshore wind projects and boost investment in fossil fuels is set to deliver a windfall to a private equity firm run by one of President Donald Trump...
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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
A major Trump donor, a former administration official, and the CEO of Trump's media company are all working on projects in Venezuela, per @financialtimes.com America's new oligarchs are at it again. www.ft.com/content/939e...
ft.com
Trump-linked companies race to secure deals for Venezuela’s oil
Appointees, a donor and a recent administration official are among those capitalising on US control of beleaguered energy sector
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David Szakonyi @szakonyi.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Europe's top court just ruled you can't see who owns a company without proving "legitimate interest" first We're going backward in the fight against corruption
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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
“There is a broad base consensus for the fact that something is broken in Washington” @szakonyi.bsky.social
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David Szakonyi @szakonyi.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
"Among industries, the crypto industry still leads as the biggest corporate donor to U.S. elections, followed by online betting and AI in 2026. Together they accounted for more than half of all company donations, at $344 million, Public Citizen found." www.reuters.com/legal/legali...
reuters.com
The new kingmakers: Crypto, AI and betting firms fuel record spending on the 2026 midterms
A handful of billionaires and companies are driving corporate spending in U.S. midterm elections this year, and they aren’t the usual power brokers who have sat atop the political food chain in Washin...
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Transparency International @anticorruption.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
As Pacific Islands Forum Leaders gather in Palau next week ahead of #COP31, the region has an opportunity to demonstrate strong climate leadership, ensuring climate decisions are guided by integrity and reaffirming its commitment to protecting our people and future generations. ⬇️🧵
Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting. Open letter calling on the Pacific Island Forum Leaders to protect climate governance from Fossil Fuel Influence. Transparency International.
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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
David Szakonyi joins the Fox News Rundown Podcast to talk about prediction market betting on war and elections. “Maybe we shouldn’t be betting on lives and shouldn’t be betting on military matters” @szakonyi.bsky.social
youtu.be
Did Crypto Bettors Leak U.S. Military Secrets?
YouTube video by FOX News Podcasts
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David Szakonyi @szakonyi.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
The SEC cannot locate a single investigative record for a company that handed the president's crypto venture $750m and then fell 90% www.pogo.org/investigates...
pogo.org
No SEC Probe of Trump Crypto Deal Despite Alleged "Illegality"
In matters involving the president and cryptocurrency, some experts say the Securities and Exchange Commission has abandoned its mission of protecting investors.
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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
ACDC recently explained to NewsNation how military insider trading on Polymarket can broadcast signals of upcoming military operations. 📺 Watch the full segment here
youtu.be
US military secrets traded on Polymarket can tip off enemies: Report | Jesse Weber Live
YouTube video by NewsNation
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David Szakonyi @szakonyi.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Yet another story about how Binance helps dictators, especially U.S. adversaries "Binance was under no obligation to provide the data, having quit Russia, and may in fact have had an obligation not to provide it under European Union data protection law" www.reuters.com/legal/govern...
reuters.com
EXCLUSIVE: Binance gave Moscow client details used to charge Russian over Ukraine donations, documents show
Binance last year handed Russian authorities details of cryptocurrency donations to Ukrainian fundraising campaigns that were used as evidence to bring terrorism financing charges against a Russian IT...
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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Asked about our latest report, Polymarket appears to confirm the scale of the military insider trading problem, telling @marshall-cohen.bsky.social @cnn.com that it had previously referred “dozens” of the accounts we flagged to the DoJ. edition.cnn.com/2026/08/21/p...
edition.cnn.com
Polymarket referred dozens of possible military insider trading cases to DOJ, source says | CNN Politics
The prediction site Polymarket referred dozens of accounts that showed signs of potential military insider trading to the Justice Department for investigation, a senior company official told CNN.
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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds - @reuters.com www.reuters.com/business/fin...
Nonprofit ACDC identifies 556 "Orca" Polymarket wallets that frequently appear, trade and disappear

ACDC identifies 152 of those Orca wallets that bet on military markets with 97.2% average win rate

ACDC finds that some of those bets drew copycat wagers before Iran military action
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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Our latest report examines the ecosystem of longshot bettors on Polymarket, separating the most likely insiders from market whales and automated trading. Thanks to @reuters.com for the write-up below. acdatacollective.org/work/classif...
acdatacollective.org
Classifying Insider Trading Risk: Analyzing the Longshot Betting Ecosystem on Polymarket – ACDC
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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
🗳️ On Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US, tens of milions of dollars are being bet on the US congressional midterm elections in November. 💵 Three months before election day, betting volume has already exceeded the 2024 cycle. But, just 1% of users control 68% of the volume on Polymarket. 🧵
A chart comparing cumulative total prediction market trading volume on the 2026 and 2024 midterm elections. 
2026 shows a total of $133.3m through August 10. 2024 shows a total of $92.4m in the weeks after Election Day.
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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
“Further, the Anti-Corruption Data Collective also found that contracts related to the military and defense were an outlier, having a disproportionately high rate of success in long-shot bets.”
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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
🔴 New from ACDC 🔴 Lobbying for alleged criminals and corrupt politicians, and people under sanctions, is increasing in Washington. We dove into FARA filings by lobbyists working for natural persons, and found alarming attempts to undo anti-corruption enforcement by previous administrations.
acdatacollective.org
The Leniency Lobby: How the U.S. Lets Global Corruption off the Hook – ACDC
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Transparency International @anticorruption.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
🔴 Germany plans to heavily restrict the access to public information. Transparency International Germany warns that current plans from senior coalition leaders of the CDU, CSU and SPD – the federal government partners – will gut Germany’s Freedom of Information Act (IFG). 🧵⬇️
PROPOSED CHANGES IN GERMANY’s Freedom of Information Act (IFG) AT A GLANCE: 

Restrict access to information by requiring applicants to demonstrate a “legitimate interest,” reversing the principle that public information should be accessible by default.  

Remove the right to file information requests for organizations and potentially exclude millions of residents without German or EU citizenship.  

Eliminate the current fee cap, potentially making requests prohibitively expensive and turning access to information into a privilege rather than a right. 

Allow authorities to routinely redact the names of officials responsible for decisions, reducing accountability and increasing risks of corruption and abuse of power.  

Introduce additional grounds for rejecting information requests, making it easier for authorities to withhold information.
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Frederik Obermaier @frederikobermaier.com · 02/07/2026
Amazing work by @investigacecz.bsky.social (with help of @acdatacollective.bsky.social) mapping Czech assets of Russians who are connected to the Kremlin and sanctioned companies and individuals.
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Frederik Obermaier @frederikobermaier.com · 01/07/2026
As @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu heads to #Azerbaijan, it’s worth remembering: the Aliyev regime is jailing journalists and critics. It also sought to buy influence in Europe - including through corruption scandals involving German conservative politicians, some of them from von der Leyen’s own CDU...
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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Sanctioned North Korean vessels are now making more foreign port calls than at any point since before the pandemic. Coal produced by slave labor is smuggled abroad, with payments made to secret accounts at Chinese banks. Don't miss this important new report by NKHR & @datadesk.bsky.social.
nkhrcampaign.org
"SAILING SANCTIONS" | NKHR
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David Szakonyi @szakonyi.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Thanks to Meghna Chakrabarti and the @wbur.org On Point team for having me on yesterday to talk about @acdatacollective.bsky.social's work on insider trading risks on Polymarket Another example of how access to government has become a huge source of profit... www.wbur.org/onpoint/2026...
wbur.org
How prediction markets have found their way into American politics
A Google engineer and member of special forces have been arrested for placing illegal bets on prediction markets. And these are just examples of the insider trading that may shape more than the countr...
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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
ACDC's latest newsletter features @pogo.org Policy Associate Janice Luong on the uneven momentum towards effective regulation of prediction markets. Check out her recent op-ed urging Congress to act. "The corruption these markets pose is a cross-partisan issue." thehill.com/opinion/fina...
thehill.com
Prediction markets are out of control — Congress must act to ban insider trades now
Elected officials and their employees should be unequivocally clear, through binding legislation, that prediction markets cannot continue as they are and have no place in politics.
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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Two Polymarket users made thousands of $ betting on the June 2025 US strikes on Iran. Trading patterns show they were very confident in the outcome. Could they be military insiders? @papertrailmedia.de & @derstandard.at dive into data from our earlier report. acdatacollective.org/work/profiti...
acdatacollective.org
Profiting from War: Mysterious Bets on Polymarket – ACDC
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Frederik Obermaier @frederikobermaier.com · 11/06/2026
Profit mit dem Krieg: Mit hochriskanten Wetten auf Kriege verdienen Nutzer auf der Plattform Polymarket viel Geld. @papertrailmedia.de @derstandard.at @acdatacollective.bsky.social Recherchen zeigen Muster, die auf möglichen Insiderhandel hindeuten www.derstandard.at/story/300000...
derstandard.at
Profit mit dem Krieg: Die mysteriösen Wetten auf Polymarket
Mit hochriskanten Wetten auf Kriege verdienen Nutzer auf der Plattform Polymarket viel Geld. Recherchen zeigen Muster, die auf möglichen Insiderhandel hindeuten
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Ian Gary @ianpgary.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
Why gutting the Corporate Transparency Act is a big - and very bad - deal.
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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
With election markets proliferating on Polymarket, the upcoming U.S. midterms will test how platforms and the CFTC police insider trading by campaign insiders. We're pleased to have contributed analysis to this @reuters.com article by @dgillison.bsky.social. www.reuters.com/legal/govern...
reuters.com
Focus: US election betting boom to test prediction markets' insider trading controls
Prediction market watchdogs may struggle to police betting on the U.S. midterm elections, with thousands of races offering ever more ways for insiders to make a quick buck on a rising number of platfo...
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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
How Dictators Use Corruption To Destroy Democracy (and Get Insanely Rich in the Process) @oslofreedomforum.com, tomorrow 14:15 - 15:15 Featuring: ACDC's @szakonyi.bsky.social with @ishaantharoor.bsky.social, Elsa Peraldi and Vadim Kleiner. oslofreedomforum.com/event/oslo-f...
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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
We helped @investigacecz.bsky.social reveal that a Russian war criminal and a far-right politician have a company together in Czechia. Experts say the company's financials look similar to those used in money laundering schemes. www.investigace.cz/valecny-zloc...
investigace.cz
Válečný zločinec v Česku spoluvlastní firmu s ruským politikem - investigace.cz
Alexey Moldavantsev podle Služby bezpečnosti Ukrajiny (SBU) vedl okupační policii v Nové Kachovce v Chersonské oblasti na jihu země, která unášela a mučila civilisty. Redakce...
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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
This NYT investigation into regulatory capture by prediction market companies is essential context to the House Oversight investigation. Rep. Comer emphasized enforcement against political insiders in his announcement. Platform content should also be reformed. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/24/u...
nytimes.com
How Prediction Markets and Crypto Firms Steamrolled a Watchdog Agency
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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Did anyone see this coming? With 52% of long shot bets on Polymarket military markets paying out, a congressional investigation can’t come soon enough. www.cnbc.com/2026/05/22/k...
cnbc.com
Oversight Chairman Comer launches congressional probe into insider trading on Kalshi, Polymarket
Congress is ramping up pressure on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket over concerns of insider trading.
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Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 19/05/2026
More opportunities for insider trading sold as innovation
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paper trail media @papertrailmedia.de · 20/05/2026
At Re:publica today? Stop by! Our co-founder @frederikobermaier.com will be discussing with @schwarz-alex.bsky.social how digital evidence can help bring international crimes to justice. Come say hi.
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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Hats off to Ireland's deputy PM for the quick response to our investigation with @irishtimes.com. www.irishtimes.com/business/202...
irishtimes.com
Polymarket betting on Dublin Central byelection to be examined by officials
Tánaiste and Minister for Finance Simon Harris wants ‘deep dive ‘into matter
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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Wash trading or money laundering? We worked with @irishtimes.com to try to make sense of the $1m bet on a Dublin byelection involving a notorious veteran criminal. www.irishtimes.com/politics/202...
irishtimes.com
Why have international traders bet $1m on the Dublin Central byelection?
Almost $500,000 alone has been wagered on Gerry Hutch’s chances of becoming a TD or not
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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
ACDC sat down with @60minutes.bsky.social for last night's episode, explaining that military insiders accused of illegal profiteering on Polymarket are not isolated cases but part of a systemic problem. www.cbsnews.com/news/predict...
cbsnews.com
Online prediction market traders make millions betting on U.S. military operations
Prediction market users are profiting from bets on war. Analysts say suspiciously timed bets, and the high win rates of wagers on military outcomes , are likely signs of insider trading.
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60 Minutes @60minutes.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
The Anti-Corruption Data Collective found long-shot wagers — bets of more than $2,500 with less than 35% odds — on military outcomes won more than they lost. Researchers say it’s a telltale sign of “systemic insider-trading.” cbsn.ws/4uUJPG8
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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
Great to see insider trading on military event prediction markets getting the primetime treatment from @60minutes.bsky.social. Last month we revealed that 52% of long shot bets on military outcomes on Polymarket are successful, way over the platform average. acdatacollective.org/work/insider...
acdatacollective.org
Insider Risks in Polymarket Political Markets – ACDC
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Stephen Abbott Pugh @stephenabbottpugh.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
Great to hear this @acdatacollective.bsky.social research into insider trading on prediction markets being mentioned by @kevinroose.com and @caseynewton.bsky.social on the Hard Fork podcast from @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2026/05/08/p...
nytimes.com
Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School
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Drew Harwell @drewharwell.com · 30/04/2026
Is it a good thing for the world that people can now secretly monetize their access to classified information on the timing and success of military strikes www.ft.com/content/989d...
More than half of “long-shot” bets on military action made on Polymarket are successful, according to a new report that suggests prediction markets could pose a bigger threat than previously recognised to the security of sensitive information.
Analysis by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, a non-profit research and advocacy group, found that long-shot bets — defined as wagers of $2,500 or more at odds of 35 per cent or less — on the platform had an average win rate of around 52 per cent in markets on military and defence actions.
That compares with a win rate of 25 per cent across all politics-focused markets and just 14 per cent for all markets on the platform as a whole.
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FT Edit @ftedit.ft.com · 30/04/2026
Long-shot bets on military action made on Polymarket have a win-rate almost four times higher than the platform average, according to new research, raising fears that wagers placed by insiders could reveal classified information. Read the full story on #FTEdit 👉 ft.trib.al/Zqokt5y
Bar chart showing win rates of high-value “long-shot” bets on Polymarket by topic, with military and defence markets highest at around 50%, far above other areas like elections, policy and central bank decisions.
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