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Eduin Latimer

@eduinlatimer.bsky.social
292 followers 344 following 129 posts

Economist at Institute for Fiscal Studies, interested in low-paying labour market and the tax and benefit system.

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Reposted by Eduin Latimer
The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
NEW: How will the new triple lock work and what effects will it have? 📊 Jonathan Cribb, @heidikarj.bsky.social and @helenmiller.bsky.social's new comment explains how the new triple lock would work, how much it would cost and how it compares to the previous triple lock: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...
Chart is an illustration of how the new triple lock would operate compared to the old triple lock.
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Reposted by Eduin Latimer
Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The government’s proposed ‘Your First Home’ scheme would offer eligible first-time buyers in England 20% equity loans on new-builds, with deposits as low as 2.5%. What could it mean for buyers and the housing market? 🧵 below:
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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Great to be on the @theifs.bsky.social podcast again. This time to discuss options for reforming PIP
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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
This really should be bigger news. Most important driver on long-term changes in living standards is productivity and recent revision to how it is measured suggests output per hour actually grew almost twice as fast from 2009 to 2019 (up from 0.7% a year to 1.3% a year)
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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
This is one of the key charts from our report out today. PIP only provides 2 levels of support for daily living costs. This means people with very different levels of assessed disability get the same amount of cash.
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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
The Timms Review has provided some 'emerging recommendations' for the future disability benefit system to replace PIP. Biggest news: currently PIP is just cash. In future they suggest that while cash will still be foundation of the award, some awards will also include non-cash support.
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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Great chart from Max here that shows migration policy changes can have big economic and therefore big fiscal effects.
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Reposted by Eduin Latimer
The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
NEW: Hidden NEETs are much closer to the labour market than NEETs who are claiming benefits. Our new analysis, out today, looks at young people who are not in education, employment or training and do not claim benefits: ifs.org.uk/publications...
ifs.org.uk
https://ifs.org.uk/publications/radar-who-are-neets-not-claiming-benefits
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Reposted by Eduin Latimer
The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
NEW: The NHS almost always has its budget topped up. But 2025–26 was different, with a much smaller top-up and no claim on the Treasury Reserve or capital budgets for frontline pressures. @maxwarner.bsky.social & Olly Harvey-Rich’s Green Budget comment on what changed last year [1/4]
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Reposted by Eduin Latimer
The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
NEW: How does being a 25-year-old today compare to previous generations? 📊 Here’s what our new explainer, with analysis produced exclusively for the BBC, finds about earnings, employment and housing for young adults [THREAD 🧵 ]:
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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
This is the most important chart for understanding how working-age benefit spending has changed over last two decades. In overall levels spending as % of GDP is lower now that it was in 2012, but the composition of that spending is very different.
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Reposted by Eduin Latimer
Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
3. Rising spending on disability benefits and other health-related benefit spending have pushed up overall spending on benefits for working-age adults and children since the pandemic but as a share of GDP total benefit spending is still lower than it was in 2012.
A bar chart showing different types of benefit spending as a % of GDP
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Reposted by Eduin Latimer
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
This is an amazing chart - but it shows *relative* inequality. Because wealth has grown from 3.5 to 7 times annual GDP since 1991, the *absolute* wealth gaps are wider, and stagnant wages mean it's harder to earn your way up the ladder. So beneath the surface, still cause for concern.
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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
The Timms Review Interim Report came out today. They say that Personal Independence Payment (PIP, the UK's working age disability benefit) is 'not fit for purpose.' Brief thread based on @theifs.bsky.social research with 5 key stats you need to know about the issue:
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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Great thread by Nick on the options for increasing public investment within the government's fiscal rules
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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
The OBR have released a new insightful report overpayments on fraud and overpayments in the benefit system. A brief🧵 explaining the key points:
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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Really enjoyed talking to the More or Less team about work incentives within the benefit system. You can hear the episode here: www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
bbc.co.uk
More or Less - Benefits v minimum wage: Which pays more? - BBC Sounds
Tim Harford examines benefits v work, dangerous temperatures and the World Cup draw.
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Reposted by Eduin Latimer
Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Heard from a reliable source that Mythos, a system capable of cracking any software system, stealing the nuclear codes and watching Putin while he takes a shower, is still reduced to a blubbering, incontinent wreck by the website of our Office for National Statistics, and this makes me damned proud
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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Some new evidence from Millburn review: Young people are staying on both incapacity benefits (UC health) and disability benefits (PIP) longer than they use to. There has been a lot of focus on the big increase in new claimants for both benefits, but slowing outflows are also part of the story.
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Reposted by Eduin Latimer
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 28/05/2026
If you like your economics to be reality-based, impartial and not always doom laden, listen to this @theifs.bsky.social podcast on the public finances with me @helenmiller.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social ifs.org.uk/articles/tou...
ifs.org.uk
The tough fiscal reality facing the UK government | Institute for Fiscal Studies
Britain faces high debt, high borrowing costs, rising taxes and stretched public services. We explain the fiscal reality facing any government.
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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
This is most striking figure from Millburn Review. They estimate that around half of the 18-24 population who are not in education, employment or training (NEET) are not claiming any benefits. This limits how effective any reforms to the benefit system can be in reducing the NEET rate.
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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Sensible to trial new ways of embedding health and employment support earlier for people with health issues that affect their work or capacity to work. Vitally important that these trials are set up so they can be rigorously evaluated and learned from. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Scheme to trial scrapping fit notes to get people back to work
The government says the system is "broken", with too many people signed off work with no help to return.
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Reposted by Eduin Latimer
The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
NEW: The new tax on salary sacrifice pension contributions are set to hit higher earners in the private sector the hardest. 📗 @laurenceobrien.bsky.social & @matthewoulton.bsky.social’s new report examines who will be most affected by changes to how salary sacrifice pension contributions are taxed:
Chart shows mean extra yearly National Insurance contributions per employee assuming no behavioural change, by earnings decile. Title states: "Mean extra yearly National Insurance contributions per employee assuming no behavioural change, by earnings decile."
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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
New PIP (disability benefits) data is out and it will be welcome news to the government who have expressed a desire to slow the rise in PIP claims. The number of new PIP claims each month has fallen again and is now considerably below its peak although still well above pre-pandemic levels.
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Reposted by Eduin Latimer
The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
NEW: Today’s new statistics show that the number of people starting disability benefits each month has continued to decline. Monthly awards are still above pre-pandemic levels, however. 📊 @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Sam Ray-Chaudhuri’s new comment explains the new data:
Chart shows monthly new awards of personal independence payment. Title states: "The number of new monthly awards for disability benefits has continued to fall, but remain well above the pre-pandemic average."
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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
Great analysis by my @theifs.bsky.social colleagues. The Government's jobs guarantee and youth jobs grant provide big (if temporary) incentives to hire young people who have been unemployed and on the relevant bit of universal credit for more than 6 months.
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Reposted by Eduin Latimer
Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
Today we updated our @theifs.bsky.social spending tool with 2024-25 data! Do have a play around with it if you're having a quiet Friday afternoon - it lets you produce some nice breakdowns of different types of spending, across different areas and over time: ifs.org.uk/calculators/...
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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
This is a great briefing by my @theifs.bsky.social colleagues. With energy prices rising, now is the time to think about how best to design any potential support package. Government can use linked data on energy usage and income to deliver well-targeted interventions without distorting energy prices
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Reposted by Eduin Latimer
Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
The Spring Forecast confirmed that the Spending Review next year looks tough. Plans are currently for departmental spending to grow by just 0.9% per year on average in real terms in the next Spending Review period, much slower than planned for the first part of the parliament.
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Reposted by Eduin Latimer
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
Here it is, my magnum opus: an analysis of what’s wrong with the UK’s approach to fiscal policy (under this and previous governments), and a proposal for what an alternative to pass-fail fiscal rules could look like. I’ll follow up with a longer thread later.
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Reposted by Eduin Latimer
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
Scotland benefits from free university tuition, free personal care services, and smaller class sizes than England. Why? Because the Scottish Government receives 26% more funding per resident than is spent in England on comparable services. This funding advantage is now being (very) gradually eroded.
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Reposted by Eduin Latimer
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
An excellent and much-needed explainer of our complicated and controversial student loans system
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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
The @lowpaycommission.bsky.social annual report is out. As always contains lots of insights. This is key chart for me: 20% of jobs are now paid within £1 of the minimum wage, up from 14% in 2015. Whatever you think of the minimum wage, its increasingly important!
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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
Great to make first appearance on IFS Zooms In Pod. @helenmiller.bsky.social and I were joined by the excellent @alanmanning4.bsky.social to talk about what's happened to to the UK minimum wage, and what impact its having on the UK labour market. Give it a listen.
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Reposted by Eduin Latimer
Peter Levell @peterlevell.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
Here's a starter pack of IFS economists posting on BlueSky. Make sure you're following them all for the top-quality economic analysis on labour markets, inequality, public finances, healthcare, education and more! go.bsky.app/NYPwMB
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Reposted by Eduin Latimer
Nick Ridpath @nickridpath.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
New ONS public finance data today shows central government revenues are still lagging significantly below March expectations. Given inflation has been higher than forecast, this is surprising - even VAT receipts, which one might expect to rise with inflation, are below forecast
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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
Great to get this new research out. We find that following cuts to non-health benefit income cause more people to claim disability benefits.
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Reposted by Eduin Latimer
The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
NEW: Cuts to non-health-related benefits caused increases in disability benefit claims, our new report finds. 📗 Jonathan Cribb, @heidikarj.bsky.social, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, Sam Ray-Chaudhuri and Tom Waters examine the impact of four cuts to benefits in the 2010s [THREAD:🧵]:
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Reposted by Eduin Latimer
The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
The government has announced it intends to abolish the two-child limit, at a cost of £3bn according to @OBR_UK. This is one of the most cost-effective levers the government has to achieve a quick reduction in child poverty, given the high poverty rates among larger families. #Budget2025
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Reposted by Eduin Latimer
The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
If there were an election tomorrow, more net tax increases would have been announced in this parliament than in any other since at least 1970. #Budget2025
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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
The Government has announced that the adult minimum wage will increase by 4.1% to £12.71. This is likely to be faster than inflation and average earnings growth. The UK’s minimum wage is already one of the highest amongst developed countries and this will push it higher.
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Reposted by Eduin Latimer
The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
NEW: Depressive symptoms have risen among women in their late 50s and early 60s, particularly among the least wealthy women. 📗 @beeboileau.bsky.social and Jonathan Cribb's new report examines health, wealth and employment in the run-up to the state pension age: [THREAD]
Chart shows percentage of 55- to 64-year-old women experiencing depressive symptoms, by third of the wealth distribution, 2002–03 to 2023–24. Title states: "39% of the poorest third of 55- to 64-year-old women reported depressive symptoms in 2023–24, compared to 10% of the wealthiest third."
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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
New work out on children receiving support for disabilities in school and/or benefit system. 50% of children with most severe needs aged 15 were not in work, education or training (NEET) aged 22. Improving outcomes for this group is vital if gov wants to cut NEET rate
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Reposted by Eduin Latimer
The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
NEW: The share of children receiving disability support and the share on high-level special educational support have both doubled since 2016. THREAD on @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org:
Chart shows share of under 16s on disability benefits and share of pupils with high-level special educational support. Title states: "The share of children receiving high-level special educational support and the share on disability benefits have both doubled in the past decade."
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
Three years on from Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng's mini budget, I've written for @theobserveruk.bsky.social about its legacy and the lessons the Chancellor, her team and her backbench MPs (including would-be MPs) should keep in mind this autumn. This point is especially important.
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Reposted by Eduin Latimer
The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
Educational attainment gaps between richer and poorer children are well documented. Despite the two-child limit substantially reducing larger families' incomes, our new research finds it had no effect on the school readiness of affected children: [THREAD:🧵]
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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 27/08/2025
@matthewoulton.bsky.social and I have a new @theifs.bsky.social comment out looking at the case for transitional protections for existing claimants when making benefit cuts and some of the related risks. We use the government's recent benefit reforms as an example. A short thread🧵
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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 27/08/2025
When and how should the government protect existing claimants from benefit cuts? @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and @matthewoulton.bsky.social discuss trade-offs involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts & what it means for recent benefit reforms: ifs.org.uk/articles/whe...
ifs.org.uk
When and how should the government protect existing claimants from benefit cuts? | Institute for Fiscal Studies
Important trade-offs are involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts.
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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
Last month, a new detailed survey of mental health amongst adults in England came out. Headline result is that more 16-64-year-olds have a common mental health conditions than in any previous wave of the survey over last 30 years. A brief thread...
Bar chart showing rise in share of people aged 16-64 with a mental health condition from 15% in 1993 to 23% in 2023/24
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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
So after a lot of debate and a lot of talk about fiscal sustainability, the confirmed reforms in the government's UC/PIP bill (so excluding the Timms review) will effectively save nothing by 2029/30.
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