iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

I was delighted to chat with @tom-richmond.com again on his Inside Your Ed podcast. We talked all things PISA, why most countries are seeing declines in results and why England seems to be bucking that trend @theifs.bsky.social

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Yesterday, the government announced an effective £500 million boost to school funding in England. Here is IFS Research Fellow @lukesibieta.bsky.social's assessment of what this boost will mean for school budgets ⬇️

Image shows a quote from IFS Research Fellow Luke Sibieta. The quote reads: "Yesterday, the government announced an effective £500 million boost to school funding in England, which equates to a permanent increase of just under 1%. This is due to the government no longer clawing back savings that have resulted from lower employer pension contributions for support staff. Alongside the £700 million top-up announced for this year in July, today's £500 million boost means that the government is now fully funding the cost of this year's 3.5% rise in teacher pay. Coming on top of other funding increases, this means that from next year schools will be £1.6 billion better off than they had expected to be this summer."

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

The gaps in reading scores between England and Wales are incredibly stark Average reading scores in Wales are lower than for disadvantaged pupils in England The least disadvantaged group in Wales scores below the average for England @theifs.bsky.social @tom-richmond.com @samfr.bsky.social

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

31% of Welsh teenagers scored below Level 2 in reading assessments. Much more than other UK countries. The OECD defines Level 2 as the minimum level of skills required to effectively participate in society.

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

NEW: The latest international education comparisons from PISA 2025 have just been published Scores in England remain high relative to other countries – while in many other countries, scores are falling Across the UK, scores remain lowest in Wales www.gov.uk/government/p... @theifs.bsky.social

gov.uk

PISA 2025: national report for England

England’s PISA 2025 results, with an international comparison of the mathematics, reading and science performance of 15-year-old pupils.

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

Delights to appear on BBC Walescast today to talk about the pressures on additional learning needs in Wales, the Welsh budget and comparisons with SEND in England @theifs.bsky.social www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

bbc.co.uk

Walescast - Budget Vote Loss: The Analysis - BBC Sounds

James, Fliss and guests discuss the Welsh Government's budget vote defeat.

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Jana Zikmundova @jzk55.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

#OTD #RedDevils #Belgium🇧🇪

Dessin dans le style du peintre belge René Magritte

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

📉 #IFSSatStat: By 2027, experienced teachers' pay is likely to be around 7% lower in real terms than in 2010, even after recent and planned increases. Teacher starting salaries have recovered to their 2010 level, but pay for more experienced teachers remains lower in real terms.

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 02/07/2026

Looking forward to speaking to #r4today at 0750 to talk about teacher pay and school funding, which I wrote about yesterday.

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

Always nice to get birthday presents that show people know you 🤩 Can’t wait to read this. Katja Hoyer is such a talented historian and writer.

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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

Short story about statistical modeling without causal inference gone badly wrong. Just head on the news that preschoolers play 15 minutes less on rainy days. The reporting stressed that the research was "associational" and therefore couldn't tell us why. Huh? 1/

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

Heard from a reliable source that Mythos, a system capable of cracking any software system, stealing the nuclear codes and watching Putin while he takes a shower, is still reduced to a blubbering, incontinent wreck by the website of our Office for National Statistics, and this makes me damned proud

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 06/06/2026

Stunning, evocative writing 1994 and 1998 for me. Hagi, Stoichkov, Bergkamp, Zidane, Suker. But watching France win the World Cup with my dad when he was still him 😭🇫🇷

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 06/06/2026

Wonderful thread from @danneidle.bsky.social on the implications of taxing “other people”

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

I rarely (if ever) recommend music here. But Manchester Orchestra’s new live album from Union Chapel is simply amazing Soothing and pristine sound combined with plaintive lyrics. Just beautiful. open.spotify.com/album/1H3mQK...

open.spotify.com

Union Chapel (London, England) - Album by Manchester Orchestra | Spotify

Manchester Orchestra · album · 2026 · 21 songs

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 27/05/2026

The brooding vastness of Ogmore by sea

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Jonathan Horowitz @jonathanhorowi1.bsky.social · 16/05/2026

The answer is no. There is no way that smartphones are responsible for a 40% decline in worldwide fertility rate. This is what the graph looks like from 1970 to the present (from @ourworldindata.org).

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 03/05/2026

I usually stick to economics and schools, but this podcast series is exceptional The raw honesty from the girls is amazing www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/serie...

bbc.co.uk

BBC Sounds - About the Girls - Available Episodes

Listen to the latest episodes of About the Girls on BBC Sounds.

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 03/05/2026

Total school funding was held flat in real-terms in last years spending review Rising costs mean schools can probably only an afford a teacher pay rise of 1.3% in 2026 Matching current inflation of 3.4% would cost schools an extra £700 million per year www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

thetimes.com

Teacher pay deal set to fall well below inflation. Expect more strikes

The rise will be eroded by the impact of the war in Iran, which may increase prices by up to 6 per cent

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 24/04/2026

With many challenges facing schools in Wales, it is encouraging to see wide recognition of these problems across the recent manifestos for the Welsh elections There is also quite a bit of agreement on solutions, including between Plaid and Reform This all bodes well for future reforms

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

The performance of the education system is holding Wales back The next Welsh govt could deliver real improvements by: high, clear expectations for all, good use of data & evidence, getting more kids back into education See my ✍️ for @nation.cymru @theifs.bsky.social nation.cymru/opinion/wels...

nation.cymru

Welsh education – a sleeping dragon

Luke Sibieta Wales has given so much to the world. From these green valleys and majestic mountains have come Dylan Thomas, David Lloyd George, Betsi Cadwaladr, Gwen John, Robert Recorde, and Betty Cam...

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 23/02/2026

NEW: The government has today proposed a major set of reforms to special needs and educational needs and disabilities in England, with more funding and support provided upfront through mainstream schools. ⬇️ Read @lukesibieta.bsky.social's immediate response here: ifs.org.uk/articles/gov...

ifs.org.uk

Government signals major reform and extra funding for SEND in England | Institute for Fiscal Studies

The government is today proposing a major set of reforms to English SEND funding, with more funding and support provided through mainstream schools.

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 07/02/2026

Wonderful paper to read on a Saturday morning.

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 04/12/2025

Massive congrats to @ckfarquharson.bsky.social and her @theifs.bsky.social colleagues. They have put so much time and thought into their evaluation of sure start and it’s multiple effects over time. The quality and impact of their work reflects this. 👏

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 28/11/2025

On Wednesday, we learned that SEND spending is growing much faster than expected, with 14% real-terms growth this year alone. Govt now has 3 options to close an expected £6bn funding gap in 2028 1. Slow the growth in SEND spending 2. Top up the schools budget 3. Reduce mainstream school budgets 🧵

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 28/11/2025

Always a pleasure to come to the #r4today studio. This time to talk about the challenges facing the government on special educational needs spending.

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Christine Farquharson @ckfarquharson.bsky.social · 27/11/2025

Good news: We now have a forecast for SEND spending, rather than flying blind. From 2028, central gov't will fund all SEND provision from within departmental spending. Without reform or spending top-ups, that's a £6bn pressure on budgets that year. @theifs.bsky.social #Budget2025

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 26/11/2025

Based on provisional outturns, the OBR expects spending on SEND will grow by over £2 billion or 17% in cash-terms in 2025-26 That is HUGE growth and about double what we expected @theifs.bsky.social

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 07/11/2025

Best followed up with this FT podcast with @timleunig.bsky.social who has a nice example of why zero-rating things like food and children's clothing isn't a particularly effective way of supporting poorer households www.ft.com/content/33d7...

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 03/10/2025

Our @theifs.bsky.social projections show a £3 billion real-terms rise in high needs spending between now and 2029 This is about £600m higher than previous forecasts quoted by the NAO If delivered, current fiscal plans then imply real-terms cuts to mainstream school spending per pupil [1/3]

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 03/10/2025

Today, we published a new @theifs.bsky.social Green Budget chapter on children with special educational needs & disability support, which is joint work with colleagues @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Darcey Snape I wanted to delve deeper into some of the key findings....[1/6]

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 16/09/2025

Some good news. Plans to drop triple science as GCSE options in Wales have been postponed till at least 2031 (pending further consultation) The case for removing this popular and rigorous option always seemed quite weak to me qualifications.wales/news-views/f...

qualifications.wales

Further consultation planned on GCSE science | Qualifications Wales

Qualifications Wales has announced that a new consultation on GCSE science will take place in 2028.

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 20/06/2025

Faced with aggressive cancer, my friend decided to end his life in Switzerland almost exactly a year ago I hope you and I are never in that situation. But he faced this reality and wanted his voice heard why assisted dying should be legal in the UK These are his words. He always wrote beautifully

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 11/06/2025

Surprise, surprise @samfr.bsky.social The 2025-26 baseline for the core schools budget is as specified in the Spring Statement and excludes the £600m for teacher pay from 2 weeks ago

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 09/06/2025

What does £4.5 billion extra for schools in England mean? My guess is that this is a real-terms freeze in the core schools budget plus some extra money for free school meals This thread explains why 🧵[1/6] observer.co.uk/news/nationa... @theifs.bsky.social @nuffieldfoundation.org

observer.co.uk

Surprise extra £4.5bn for schools as Reeves goes to wire ...

More money for SEND reforms and teachers’ pay while health and defence are big winners in spending review

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

Schools can probably afford 2% teacher pay rises from within existing budgets Govt proposals for 2.8% assumed schools could make efficiency savings of £300m Going to 4% would add a further £400m to school costs on top of that

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 26/03/2025

The government's borrowing rule (the ‘stability rule’) is being met by £9.9 billion in 2029/30, the *exact* same amount as last October. Nothing special about that number. Implies that policy is being fine-tuned in pursuit of an arbitrary number for ‘fiscal headroom’. Chasing the model.

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 25/03/2025

I would strongly recommend this documentary about Jasmine Paris. It’s just a fantastic account of one person’s battle to achieve the seemingly impossible. And the joys of running in the wilderness Would even recommend to non-runners! youtu.be/PgTEsybXw-4?...

youtu.be

The Finisher: Jasmin Paris and the Barkley Marathons (Full Documentary)

YouTube video by Singletrack

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 20/03/2025

I'm SOOO excited about the tour coming to Wales, I'd like to propose a route: Builth to Cardiff via Devil's Staircase, Llyn Brianne, Black Mountain, Rhigos, Treorchy High Street (imagine it), passing through home towns of Max Boyce and Tom Jones, Caerphilly Mountain and a sprint finish at the bay

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 19/03/2025

Such an eloquent and moving account by a young person on the immense challenges of homelessness as a child Llongyfarchiadau Mia 👏 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

bbc.co.uk

Homelessness: I sat my GCSEs while living in a hotel temporarily

Mia and her siblings lived in temporary accommodation for 18 months after a no fault eviction.

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 17/03/2025

Very proud that my eye-catching headline from this podcast is: "The truth is probably a bit more boring" Thoroughly enjoyable chat with @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social & @missmc.bsky.social

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Luke Sibieta @lukesibieta.bsky.social · 17/03/2025

With the schools bill in the news, we cut through the noise on @theifs.bsky.social podcast - School performance in England has been ok for last 15 years, but lots of inequalities - Main effect will be making all schools follow new national curriculum - Uncertainty on what happens to failing schools

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Laura McInerney @missmc.bsky.social · 12/03/2025

Wide-ranging podcast, this one. Super edu nerd @lukesibieta.bsky.social and I geek out on everything from breakfast clubs, to Ofsted, to baby doom, including an awkward stat about academies at the end & a desperate plea from me on housing and dentistry.

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