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Reposted by Eduin Latimer

The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Since 2019, government spending on working age benefits has risen from 4.2% to 4.7% of GDP. 🎙️ @helenmiller.bsky.social and @eduinlatimer.bsky.social explain how working age benefits spending has changed overtime, in our recent podcast on whether disability benefits need reform:

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Peter Levell @peterlevell.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

If I'd known this event was going to get 16k+ views on youtube, I would probably put a comb through my hair that morning! www.youtube.com/watch?v=6tvC... Watch Bobbie Upton's presentation on Britain's high electricity prices here

youtube.com

What should we do about high electricity prices in the UK?

YouTube video by Institute for Fiscal Studies

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

NEW: How will the new triple lock work and what effects will it have? 📊 Jonathan Cribb, @heidikarj.bsky.social and @helenmiller.bsky.social's new comment explains how the new triple lock would work, how much it would cost and how it compares to the previous triple lock: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...

Chart is an illustration of how the new triple lock would operate compared to the old triple lock.

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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The government’s proposed ‘Your First Home’ scheme would offer eligible first-time buyers in England 20% equity loans on new-builds, with deposits as low as 2.5%. What could it mean for buyers and the housing market? 🧵 below:

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Great to be on the @theifs.bsky.social podcast again. This time to discuss options for reforming PIP

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

congrats Alex and the whole team!

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Shout out to my @escoeorg.bsky.social colleague @joshmartinecon.bsky.social and to ONS researchers for all their work to improve the measurement of our economy. This is just one example that shows that how we measure things matters!

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Productivity puzzle still remains but is a bit more muted. Trend output per hour growth fell from 2.0% in 1997-2007 to 1.3% a year in 2009-2019 on new measures rather than from 2.1% to 0.7% on previous measures

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Why is output per hour higher than previously estimated? Because ONS think we are working fewer hours than previously estimated. Estimated output is unchanged.

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

This really should be bigger news. Most important driver on long-term changes in living standards is productivity and recent revision to how it is measured suggests output per hour actually grew almost twice as fast from 2009 to 2019 (up from 0.7% a year to 1.3% a year)

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

This is one of the key charts from our report out today. PIP only provides 2 levels of support for daily living costs. This means people with very different levels of assessed disability get the same amount of cash.

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

If it wants to improve disabled people's lives more broadly, there may be a stronger case for redirecting some support towards services, especially those proven to deliver improvements in quality of life

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

The case for this change will depend on what the government wants to achieve with disability benefits. If it wants to contribute to disability-related costs, cash is the obvious (although not only) way to do this.

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

The Timms Review has provided some 'emerging recommendations' for the future disability benefit system to replace PIP. Biggest news: currently PIP is just cash. In future they suggest that while cash will still be foundation of the award, some awards will also include non-cash support.

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Great chart from Max here that shows migration policy changes can have big economic and therefore big fiscal effects.

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

NEW: Hidden NEETs are much closer to the labour market than NEETs who are claiming benefits. Our new analysis, out today, looks at young people who are not in education, employment or training and do not claim benefits: ifs.org.uk/publications...

ifs.org.uk

https://ifs.org.uk/publications/radar-who-are-neets-not-claiming-benefits

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

NEW: The NHS almost always has its budget topped up. But 2025–26 was different, with a much smaller top-up and no claim on the Treasury Reserve or capital budgets for frontline pressures. @maxwarner.bsky.social & Olly Harvey-Rich’s Green Budget comment on what changed last year [1/4]

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

NEW: How does being a 25-year-old today compare to previous generations? 📊 Here’s what our new explainer, with analysis produced exclusively for the BBC, finds about earnings, employment and housing for young adults [THREAD 🧵 ]:

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

This is the most important chart for understanding how working-age benefit spending has changed over last two decades. In overall levels spending as % of GDP is lower now that it was in 2012, but the composition of that spending is very different.

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

3. Rising spending on disability benefits and other health-related benefit spending have pushed up overall spending on benefits for working-age adults and children since the pandemic but as a share of GDP total benefit spending is still lower than it was in 2012.

A bar chart showing different types of benefit spending as a % of GDP

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

This is an amazing chart - but it shows *relative* inequality. Because wealth has grown from 3.5 to 7 times annual GDP since 1991, the *absolute* wealth gaps are wider, and stagnant wages mean it's harder to earn your way up the ladder. So beneath the surface, still cause for concern.

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

5. The types of conditions people claim disability benefits for has changed. In 2019 40% of claims related to mental, learning or neurodevelopmental conditions, now 44% of claims relate to these conditions.

Bar chart showing percent of people claiming a disability benefit by condition type

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

4. The increase in PIP is seen across the entire working age distribution (as chart below shows). In % terms there has been faster growth in younger claimants, but people in their 50s are still much more likely to claim than people in their 20s.

Share of population claiming a disability benefit by age

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

2. More people claiming disability benefits means more spending on PIP. Spending on working age disability benefits in England and Wales in today's prices has doubled from £14 billion (0.5% of GDP) in 2019 to £28 billion today (0.9% of GDP).

Line chart showing spending on working-age disability benefits over time

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

1. Since 2019, the number of working age disability benefit claimants has increased from 2.0 million to 3.6 million and from 5.5% of the working age population to 8.9% of the working age population.

Line chart showing rising disability benefit caseload over time

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

The Timms Review Interim Report came out today. They say that Personal Independence Payment (PIP, the UK's working age disability benefit) is 'not fit for purpose.' Brief thread based on @theifs.bsky.social research with 5 key stats you need to know about the issue:

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

Great thread by Nick on the options for increasing public investment within the government's fiscal rules

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

4. Since the pandemic, the government has reintroduced checks that people are actively involved in 'gainful self-employment' and it has also massively ramped up the staff it has working on enforcement and plans to do so more. This investment is likely to continue to push down on fraud and error.

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

3. This higher fraud and error rate for this Covid cohort was predominantly due to higher income-related fraud and error and specifically for those reporting self employment. This is at least partly because the government eased checks on self-employed claimants during the peak of the pandemic.

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

2. The increase in fraud and error during the pandemic was almost entirely due to higher fraud and error rates for people on universal credit (UC) and was specifically focussed amongst the wave of new UC claimants who started their claim during the pandemic (see yellow bar in chart below)

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

1. Overpayments in the benefit system due to fraud and error rose during the pandemic and have since fallen back to pre-pandemic levels. In 2019 3.1% of benefit payments were overpayments due to fraud or error, by 2021 it had risen to 4.3% and by 2025 it was back down to 3.2%.

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

The OBR have released a new insightful report overpayments on fraud and overpayments in the benefit system. A brief🧵 explaining the key points:

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

Particularly exciting for me as I've been a long-time fan of the show!

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

Really enjoyed talking to the More or Less team about work incentives within the benefit system. You can hear the episode here: www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

bbc.co.uk

More or Less - Benefits v minimum wage: Which pays more? - BBC Sounds

Tim Harford examines benefits v work, dangerous temperatures and the World Cup draw.

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

(We provided the defence spending figures BBC used here but not the benefit spending figures)

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Ruth is right to correct the BBC figures here. Non-pensioner benefit spending as a share of GDP has risen since the pandemic, but those increases only take it back to where it was in around 2015. It is not at historic highs as the BBC series would suggest.

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

Heard from a reliable source that Mythos, a system capable of cracking any software system, stealing the nuclear codes and watching Putin while he takes a shower, is still reduced to a blubbering, incontinent wreck by the website of our Office for National Statistics, and this makes me damned proud

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 29/05/2026

Some new evidence from Millburn review: Young people are staying on both incapacity benefits (UC health) and disability benefits (PIP) longer than they use to. There has been a lot of focus on the big increase in new claimants for both benefits, but slowing outflows are also part of the story.

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

Caveat: This is based on experimental analysis the Millburn Review team has done, so exact size of this 'hidden NEETs' group is uncertain. But its definitely an important group.

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

This is most striking figure from Millburn Review. They estimate that around half of the 18-24 population who are not in education, employment or training (NEET) are not claiming any benefits. This limits how effective any reforms to the benefit system can be in reducing the NEET rate.

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

Sensible to trial new ways of embedding health and employment support earlier for people with health issues that affect their work or capacity to work. Vitally important that these trials are set up so they can be rigorously evaluated and learned from. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

bbc.co.uk

Scheme to trial scrapping fit notes to get people back to work

The government says the system is "broken", with too many people signed off work with no help to return.

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

NEW: The new tax on salary sacrifice pension contributions are set to hit higher earners in the private sector the hardest. 📗 @laurenceobrien.bsky.social & @matthewoulton.bsky.social’s new report examines who will be most affected by changes to how salary sacrifice pension contributions are taxed:

Chart shows mean extra yearly National Insurance contributions per employee assuming no behavioural change, by earnings decile. Title states: "Mean extra yearly National Insurance contributions per employee assuming no behavioural change, by earnings decile."

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

A key reason for this is that PIP claims tend to last a long time. Two-thirds of those who started getting PIP in 2017 were still receiving it 5 years later. This means we'll still be dealing with the post-pandemic surge in new awards for many years to come.

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

However, even with new awards falling, its likely that total PIP claimant numbers and spending will remain high. Official forecasts expect new applications (and awards) to PIP to fall a bit further, but expect total spending on PIP to increase by another £7 billion by 2029/30

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

New PIP (disability benefits) data is out and it will be welcome news to the government who have expressed a desire to slow the rise in PIP claims. The number of new PIP claims each month has fallen again and is now considerably below its peak although still well above pre-pandemic levels.

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

NEW: Today’s new statistics show that the number of people starting disability benefits each month has continued to decline. Monthly awards are still above pre-pandemic levels, however. 📊 @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Sam Ray-Chaudhuri’s new comment explains the new data:

Chart shows monthly new awards of personal independence payment. Title states: "The number of new monthly awards for disability benefits has continued to fall, but remain well above the pre-pandemic average."

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

Great analysis by my @theifs.bsky.social colleagues. The Government's jobs guarantee and youth jobs grant provide big (if temporary) incentives to hire young people who have been unemployed and on the relevant bit of universal credit for more than 6 months.

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