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Reposted by Max Warner

The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

NEW: Electricity prices in the UK are among the highest in the G7. Why is this? And what can the government do about it? Our new IFS Green Budget chapter explains: [THREAD] ⬇️

Chart shows evolution of domestic energy prices in G7 countries since 1990. Title states: "Domestic energy prices in the UK are among the highest in the G7."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

NEW: The English and Welsh justice system is under strain. But more funding alone won't alone fix the system’s problems. Our new Transforming Justice report, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, examines the resources pressures facing the system: [THREAD]

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

EVENT: IFS Green Budget 2026 Wed 14 Sept | 9:30-11:15 | In-person & online Join us for insights from this year’s Green Budget, including the UK economic outlook, public finance challenges and options for the Chancellor. Funded by @NuffieldFound and @BarclaysUK. Sign up: ifs.org.uk/events/ifs-g...

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Max Warner @maxwarner.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

We have a new report out today taking a deep dive into how migration and its fiscal impacts feed through the OBR’s public finance forecast. A short thread on why this matters [1/9]

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Nick Ridpath @nickridpath.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Migration could be quite important at this year’s budget, as falling migration feeds through into the OBR’s forecast and the government’s “headroom” against its fiscal rules. Given this, a thread on how migration affects the public finances:

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Max Warner @maxwarner.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Early last year, Wes Streeting and NHS England declared a ‘fundamental reset’ of the NHS financial regime. In a new @theifs.bsky.social comment, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, we show that a big NHS budget top-up was avoided in 25-26. So how was this achieved and what does it mean going forward?

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Max Warner @maxwarner.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

NEW: What are rent controls? How do they impact renters, landlords and rental properties? And are they the answer the UK’s historically high housing costs? 📗 @matthewoulton.bsky.social and Tom Wernham review the evidence in our new explainer on the effects of rent controls ⬇️

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

This is the most important chart for understanding how working-age benefit spending has changed over last two decades. In overall levels spending as % of GDP is lower now that it was in 2012, but the composition of that spending is very different.

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Max Warner @maxwarner.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

We have a comment in the Times today on how yesterday's VAT cut will be paid for. The money has to come from somewhere within departmental budgets, but we don't know what will be squeezed. That's different to the bus fares policy, where more specific cuts have been set out

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Max Warner @maxwarner.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

Andy Burnham will shortly be the next PM. In the latest episode of the IFS podcast, @ckfarquharson.bsky.social, Tom Waters and I discuss the main challenges and policy decisions he will soon face. Including defence, welfare, tax, NEETs, social care and the next Spending Review.

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

NEW PODCAST: The tax and spending choices facing Andy Burnham 🎙️ This week, @ckfarquharson.bsky.social is joined by @maxwarner.bsky.social and Tom Waters to discuss to examine the economic choices facing the incoming Prime Minister.

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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

Two key things about yesterday's defence announcement: the scale of the top ups was relatively small, increasing defence spending by about 0.1% of GDP each year; the challenge ahead remains large if defence spending is to hit 3.5% of GDP by 2035.

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Max Warner @maxwarner.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

A few key points from our @theifs.bsky.social response to today's Defence Investment Plan 1. The extra funding is quite small, raising defence spending by 0.1% of GDP in each of the next 3 yrs, reaching 2.7% of GDP from 27-28. We also got plans for 29-30 for the first time, also 2.7% of GDP

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Nick Ridpath @nickridpath.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

Could the government borrow more to fund investment in infrastructure? There's a case for borrowing for productive investment, but there isn't one simple trick to substantially increase borrowing within the current fiscal rules. A short thread:

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Max Warner @maxwarner.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

New NHS waiting times data out today. The share of patients waiting ≤18 weeks for elective care dropped a little in Apr, but is still (with rounding!) 65%. List size has gone up a bit. See my thread from last month on how the NHS pushed hard to reach the 65% intermediate target

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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

The constant rumours around marginally different top ups to defence spending alongside the Defence Investment Plan over the last few months have been frustrating. As Max sets out, the DIP is just one part of the govt's overall plan to increase defence spending and capabilities

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Max Warner @maxwarner.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Lots of discussion in recent weeks about how to fund the (much-delayed!) Defence Investment Plan. While this is important, it is only the first step in the longer-term and much larger defence spending increase this government has committed to. A short thread:

Chart showing planned increases in defence spending as a share of GDP

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Reaching the NATO defence spending commitment and increasing UK defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035 would reshape the British state. Last week @maxwarner.bsky.social set out the big societal questions this raises at Treasury Select Committee @hoccommittees.parliament.uk.

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Max Warner @maxwarner.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

It's really striking some of the changes in the NHS workforce in recent years. Overall staffing growth has slowed down a lot. Doctor and nurse numbers still rising, but other groups are seeing slow downs or even falls

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Max Warner @maxwarner.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

My colleagues have a report out today on civil legal aid, an important part of the justice system. Restrictions to eligibility in 2013 brought down spending/caseloads. The # of legal aid providers has continued to fall over time, and more and more areas have no provider at all

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Max Warner @maxwarner.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

We now have data for NHS staffing and hospital activity in England for all of 2025–26. There’s a lot of interesting things going on, so here’s a short thread on some of the key patterns. As the chart below shows, most staff groups and most types of activity are up year-on-year

Chart showing changes in staffing and activity in English NHS trusts between 2024-25 and 2025-26

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 01/06/2026

IFS economists are giving evidence to the Treasury Select Committee twice this week: 🟢Tues at 9:45am: Kate Ogden on student loans 🟢Wed at 2:15pm: @maxwarner.bsky.social on defence spending Find out more about the sessions and how to watch here: committees.parliament.uk/committee/15...

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Max Warner @maxwarner.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

Any PM and Chancellor will be constrained by the same set of fiscal challenges. In this episode @helenmiller.bsky.social @chrisgiles.ft.com and I explain the public finance backdrop - debt, borrowing, tax and spending plans - that will shape political choices over the coming years

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

This is most striking figure from Millburn Review. They estimate that around half of the 18-24 population who are not in education, employment or training (NEET) are not claiming any benefits. This limits how effective any reforms to the benefit system can be in reducing the NEET rate.

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Max Warner @maxwarner.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

It's still unclear what the shift to community will do in the NHS. But in a middle-income context, @bancalaria.bsky.social et al find that El Salvador's multidisciplinary community health teams increased preventative appts, shifted the mix of care and reduced preventable hospitalisations.

Chart showing an increase in preventative consultations

Chart showing a fall in preventable hospitalisations for communicable diseases

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Max Warner @maxwarner.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

It wasn’t the biggest story yesterday, but the NHS in England hit its intermediate target that 65% of patients should be waiting 18 weeks or less for elective care by Mar26. That’s after big recent improvements from 61.5% in Jan to 65.3% in March. So how was this achieved?🧵

Chart showing performance against the govt's 18 week target

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Max Warner @maxwarner.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

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Max Warner @maxwarner.bsky.social · 27/04/2026

Here is our summary of the parties' plans for the Scottish NHS. A lot of consensus on e.g. more primary care and prevention. Some parties have set out plans for total health spending, but they imply quite slow growth - reflecting the tough fiscal reality faced by the next govt

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Max Warner @maxwarner.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

One thing I find really striking on defence spending: the Strategic Defence Review was meant to be deliverable with *slower* defence spending than currently planned. The govt accepted all its recommendations. But it's long looked very ambitious to deliver within spending plans

Text from SDR saying that it was conducted within a context of spending 2.5% of GDP on defence

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Max Warner @maxwarner.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

Important work from my colleagues. If you care about wealth inequality, you need to be able to measure wealth well. That's hard. With an improved methodology, it looks like wealth gaps by age were smaller than official statistics would suggest

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Max Warner @maxwarner.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

Do listen to our latest podcast on the challenges facing the next Scottish government. One is that public services, inc. the NHS, are still struggling to recover from the pandemic. Hospital activity, for example, is still below pre-pandemic levels, unlike in England or Wales

Chart showing changes in hospital activity relative to 2019 Q3

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Max Warner @maxwarner.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

I'm looking forward to taking part in this event on NHS productivity on the 30th April - do sign up to come along

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Max Warner @maxwarner.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

We have just updated our @theifs.bsky.social public spending tool. It allows you to explore how and where the government spends its money in the UK, now up to 2024-25. You can check it out here: ifs.org.uk/calculators/...

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Max Warner @maxwarner.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

A year ago we published @theifs.bsky.social analysis of whether and how the govt could hit their 18 week waiting time target. Performance has improved over the last year, and lies between our scenarios. Things could change, but it still doesn't look like we are on track for 92% by 2029

Chart showing simulated and actual performance against the 18 week NHS RTT target in England

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Max Warner @maxwarner.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

NEW: How is the Welsh NHS performing, and how does it compare to England and Scotland? We have a new @theifs.bsky.social report out today looking at public service spending and performance in Wales, in advance of the Senedd elections. 🧵on the key Welsh NHS takeaways [1/10]

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Max Warner @maxwarner.bsky.social · 09/03/2026

How is the Scottish NHS performing, and how does it compare to England and Wales? On Saturday we published a new @theifs.bsky.social report looking at public service spending and performance in Scotland, in advance of the devolved elections. 🧵on the key Scottish NHS takeaways [1/10]

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Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

The Spring Forecast confirmed that the Spending Review next year looks tough. Plans are currently for departmental spending to grow by just 0.9% per year on average in real terms in the next Spending Review period, much slower than planned for the first part of the parliament.

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

The government plans to reduce government borrowing by 2.5% of GDP over the next four years – a sizeable fiscal consolidation. The question is now one of delivery. And past experience clearly shows that promising lower borrowing is easier than delivering lower borrowing.

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Max Warner @maxwarner.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

We at @theifs.bsky.social will be presenting our overnight analysis of the Spring Forecast from 10:30am. @nickridpath.bsky.social and I will present on the government's plans, the risks to their delivery and the broader UK fiscal position. You can watch online here: ifs.org.uk/events/sprin...

ifs.org.uk

Spring Forecast 2026: IFS analysis | Institute for Fiscal Studies

At this online event IFS researchers will present their initial analysis of the Chancellor's spring forecast.

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Nick Ridpath @nickridpath.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

The OBR’s current budget forecast has barely changed, with borrowing still set to fall over the next few years. Past governments have often set out plans for a current budget surplus, but it’s very rare that they’ve achieved it. That will be the key challenge going forward.

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 19/02/2026

Here it is, my magnum opus: an analysis of what’s wrong with the UK’s approach to fiscal policy (under this and previous governments), and a proposal for what an alternative to pass-fail fiscal rules could look like. I’ll follow up with a longer thread later.

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Max Warner @maxwarner.bsky.social · 12/02/2026

Very pleased that our paper examining how doctors respond to changes to their pensions is now published in the Journal of Health Economics. We find that consultants in the English NHS responded to changes in their pensions similarly to how existing evidence suggests they may respond to pay.

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

There is an increasing sense that the UK's approach towards fiscal policymaking, and in particular the excessive focus on "headroom", isn't delivering good outcomes. Come along on 19 February to hear me make the case for how we could do things differently, and to hear from our terrific panel.

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Eduin Latimer @eduinlatimer.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

The @lowpaycommission.bsky.social annual report is out. As always contains lots of insights. This is key chart for me: 20% of jobs are now paid within £1 of the minimum wage, up from 14% in 2015. Whatever you think of the minimum wage, its increasingly important!

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 16/01/2026

NEW PODCAST: Why isn't the NHS improving faster? @helenmiller.bsky.social, @maxwarner.bsky.social and Olly Harvey-Rich examine the latest data on NHS performance, progress on waiting lists and the big challenges around staffing, winter and flu cases. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/why...

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Stuart Hoddinott @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social · 15/01/2026

DHSC published its impact statement for the 10 Year Health Plan this week (yes, that is 6 months after it published the plan) It's more measured and clear-eyed than the original document and quite a contrast to some of the effusive optimism in the plan Some of the things that caught my eye 👇

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Stuart Hoddinott @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social · 09/01/2026

There's now data out about the resident doctor strikes last month So how disruptive did they end up being? And what can we say about how the NHS is responding to ongoing strikes? Short 🧵👇

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Nick Ridpath @nickridpath.bsky.social · 19/12/2025

This is important as last month's OBR forecast (no monthly breakdown of this yet) expects a big increase in receipts by 2029/30 from higher inflation, boosting the public finances. That may materialise, but it’s concerning that it hasn’t yet - one watch out for in the new year

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