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dunlocke.bsky.social @dunlocke.bsky.social · 1h

So special elections? Off year governor races basically fall in that category as well.

dunlocke.bsky.social @dunlocke.bsky.social · 2h

I'm not sure I find value in polling misses pre-2016. Yes, it's POSSIBLE the miss is in Ds favor, but outside of special elections it just doesn't seem plausible we're going to magically see a shift away from polls under-estimating Rs yet again.

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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 13/10/2026

New DVOA ratings and commentary, featuring the dominant 49ers, the absurdly high Texans and Bucs, and the crazy Week 2-5 reign of Joe Ferguson and the Bills in 1979. ftnfantasy.com/week-5-dvoa-...

ftnfantasy.com

Week 5 DVOA: Still San Francisco No. 1

What do Brock Purdy and the dominating 5-0 Niners have in common with the 1979 Buffalo Bills? It's all about the pass.

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dunlocke.bsky.social @dunlocke.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

I'm curious if incumbents globally are suffering similar fates this year. Suppose it depends on global inflation.

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 13/10/2026

She wouldn't be my first pick, but I do think it's pretty obvious that Harris would have won if Biden hadn't presided over 10% inflation. The empirical Q (and we will get data on this) is whether she gets the same boost in the future, which some are asserting as fact but is as of yet uncertain

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Alan Sepinwall @sepinwall.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

You know what's great comfort food viewing when you feel awful? From the Earth to the Moon.

Tony Goldwyn as Neil Armstrong and Cary Elwes as Mike Collins.

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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 12/10/2026

Nah, Goff was pretty good last year and they only were 9-8.

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dunlocke.bsky.social @dunlocke.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

Appreciate the response! Can we call this the Goff effect?

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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 12/10/2026

No. Most quarterbacks play better and make fewer mistakes when they're ahead. Last year, the Patriots were ahead a LOT.

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dunlocke.bsky.social @dunlocke.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

Is playing while ahead a skill? I can't imagine the noise in that data

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dunlocke.bsky.social @dunlocke.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

There's people who actually believe this and it saddens me. They think interstellar is a documentary

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dunlocke.bsky.social @dunlocke.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

It's not 100% clear if the archive will be publicly available or if it will be paywalled?

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dunlocke.bsky.social @dunlocke.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

What if I'm rooting for Andy Greenwald?

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

USPS recommends if you are returning a ballot by mail that you give it one week to reach an election office

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dunlocke.bsky.social @dunlocke.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

I know the article is more than this result, but posting this tidbit will probably stop a number of people from subscribing.

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dunlocke.bsky.social @dunlocke.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

@jaketapper.bsky.social is a joke. Dude has money, could get a job anywhere anyway, and chooses to participate in sanewashing this government. Imagine having your legacy meeting tied to this administration.

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dunlocke.bsky.social @dunlocke.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

"Buy Khalif Raymond" drop incoming

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dunlocke.bsky.social @dunlocke.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

I know it's a joke but I 100% see us turning down that offer

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dunlocke.bsky.social @dunlocke.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

He's trying to find the guy who did this

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dunlocke.bsky.social @dunlocke.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Is this going to be another year of trying to get my friends to ignore the lions' record and argue why they're actually good? It was a rough going last year

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Dan Pizzuta @danpizzuta.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Lions playing the long game to not let Ben Johnson lead the league in scoring

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dunlocke.bsky.social @dunlocke.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Yeah, well, voters are idiots, we've learned. If you watched Kamala on the trail and didn't think that was her true, impassioned self, you're lost. Fortunately, anyone with D in front of their name will fare better next time around since the economy continues to worsen.

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Meghan Montemurro @mmontemurro.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

The Cubs finish August with 62 home runs. That's 2nd in MLB history, dating to 1898, for the most HRs in a calendar month: 1. 2019 Yankees, 74 in April 2. 2026 Cubs, 62 in August

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 12/08/2026

So what the hell is going on with primary polling?? www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-08-12...

gelliottmorris.com

Primary election polls miss by 13 points on average

And they are off by 20+ points about 10% of the time

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dunlocke.bsky.social @dunlocke.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

The S&P is up 20% in the last year, too. The hard part is having that first 10 billion.

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dunlocke.bsky.social @dunlocke.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

That video remains one of the best things I've ever seen on YouTube. What a wonderful treat.

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dunlocke.bsky.social @dunlocke.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

If the only option to share besides downloading the image is to post to fucking X, you can keep it.

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dunlocke.bsky.social @dunlocke.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

They're doing enough to make some people comfortable, apparently. If every headline every day isn't about Trump's corruption and cruelty, they are failing imo. Sanewashing.

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Alan Sepinwall @sepinwall.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

Me after 20 minutes at any amusement park or museum:

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dunlocke.bsky.social @dunlocke.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

They chose a poor email system years ago and are too stubborn or cheap to change.

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dunlocke.bsky.social @dunlocke.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

We all assumed you were dead when there was no picture of you with Elaine Chao. Tom Papa is serving out your term

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dunlocke.bsky.social @dunlocke.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

Besides not playing, playing a different sport than what they're playing is fine by me.

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Ken Tremendous @kentremendous.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

Playing badminton with Mitch McConnell. We talked about the midterms and Iran. I took the first game 15-0 because he is unresponsive and lying on the ground.

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dunlocke.bsky.social @dunlocke.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

You don't get to be an establishment politician without many people voting for you time and time again. All Platner did by running is ensure people remain skeptical of outsiders.

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dunlocke.bsky.social @dunlocke.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

America has the best beer in the world and it's not close. We dominate most styles. Belgium has the best sour brewery but that's damning with faint praise.

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Assistant Deputy Takesmith, Reporting For Duty @tofuttibreak.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

We actually do have better beer, no I am not being ironical or contrarian. It’s a fact.

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dunlocke.bsky.social @dunlocke.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

You don't know shit about beer is my takeaway

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 27/06/2026

Vanilla Ice will be returned to his cryochamber for the 300 year celebration

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Eldritch Racasner 🎃🕷️ @velodus.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

So important Shamsbot account news. As of today, I'm officially handing its reins over to @beastmoderocco.com, who's helped automate it. I managed that Shams account for 3 full seasons and poured my heart into it, but 3 years is... enough. So now it's all his :) Plz go follow him and be nice to him.

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Peter Sagal @petersagal.bsky.social · 18/06/2026