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Aaron Schatz

@aaronschatz.com
64K followers 222 following 8.5K posts

Chief Analytics Officer, FTN. ESPN NFL writer. Former radio DJ. Founder of Football Outsiders, creator of DVOA, All-Pro/MVP voter.

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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 11h
Facebook now has only three types of content: Right-wing antisemitic memes Left-wing antisemetic memes Angine de Poitrine videos
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 15h
Football Card of the Day: 1980 Topps Vikings Team Leaders The Vikings went 7-9 in 1979 and finished 17th out of 28 teams in points allowed but apparently they weren't popular enough to do cards for any defenders. Paul Krause and Jim Marshall retired before 1980, which is part of the reason.
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Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 17h
I made a supercut of the 4 Makai Lemon screen passes I could find from the first 3 weeks. Those plays gained -5, -3, -5, and -3 yards. Some Eagles receivers missed blocks. But even to my untrained eye, Lemon's motion in the backfield telegraphs the plays. I think Sean Mannion should scrap them.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 20h
Thank you, and on first glance, he's right about Jacksonville. Alas.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 20h
I love stuff like this and would like to read it for the NFL. I think Philly might be the best food of a stadium I've been in the press box for. That doesn't count the SB (aux press box gets crap food) or Dallas (didn't sit in the press box). Pats do give lobster rolls early in the season.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 21h
Here's a table that didn't make it into this week's DVOA commentary. The Falcons have one of the biggest gaps ever between pass and run offense at this point in the season -- the biggest since 2003.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 21h
New DVOA ratings and commentary: 49ers as one of the best teams ever through Week 3, Texans and Rams better than you think, the Patriots' big fall and the Jaguars' rise. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-3-d...
ftnfantasy.com
Week 3 DVOA: San Francisco Keeps Sailing
The 49ers are one of the 10 best teams ever by DVOA after an Arizona win that was much bigger than the final score. Also better than you think: Texans and Rams.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 21h
DVOA Playoff Odds now updated. We give a 13.3% chance for the Super Bowl we call "Chris Berman's Dream" (Bills-49ers) ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...
ftnfantasy.com
NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LXI
NFL playoff picture odds to win Super Bowl LXI based on DVOA and 25,000 weekly simulations.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 21h
Quick Reads with the best and worst players of the week by DYAR is now updated with Monday Night Football! ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-3-q...
ftnfantasy.com
Week 3 Quick Reads: Gibbs and Robinson Shine
It's not very often that two running backs have games as good as Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson in the same week. Plus, best and worst players of Week 3 by DYAR.
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Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 22h
Matthew Stafford has thrown more pick-sixes than anyone in NFL history. And this isn't random trivia -- he has been uniquely proficient at it, and his record may never be beaten.
lateral-thinking.ghost.io
Matthew Stafford, King of the Pick-Six
Matthew Stafford has thrown more pick-sixes than anyone in NFL history. And this isn't random trivia -- he has been uniquely proficient at it, and his record may never be beaten.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 29/09/2026
Just watched the second half of the game and Johnson was phenomenal at scheming open guys.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 29/09/2026
Even the most veteran of quarterbacks can misread the coverage.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 29/09/2026
What third-string quarterback? That seemed easy.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 29/09/2026
OMG this mariachi band doing the national anthem is amazing and an incredibly subversive political statement that I did not expect to come from… Chicago Bears management?
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FTN @ftnfantasy.com · 28/09/2026
49ers too powerful for the substation😤
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
For you Justin Herbert fans, based on current DVOA the Chargers play the toughest remaining schedule of opposing defenses. The Vikings play the easiest... followed by the Jaguars. (Of course, Houston's defense is likely better than their current rating.)
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
I got an early copy of Peter's book and it's really good. It's like a greatest hits of interesting bits of NFL history since the mid-80s. Very much recommended. I was honored that he mentioned me (and Brian Burke and Michael Lopez) as sort of honorable mention in his Top 100 NFL people.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
New Quick Reads: Best and worst players of Week 3 by DYAR, highlighted by the two best fantasy players of this season: Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-3-q...
ftnfantasy.com
Week 3 Quick Reads: Gibbs and Robinson Shine
It's not very often that two running backs have games as good as Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson in the same week. Plus, best and worst players of Week 3 by DYAR.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
After three games, the Commanders are first in run defense DVOA and 29th in pass defense DVOA.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
Don’t mess with 199, that’s the Brady pick number.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
Join me and @miketanier.bsky.social at noon Eastern to discuss all of the crazy Week 3 results in the NFL. www.youtube.com/live/7DIXCEn...
youtube.com
NFL Week 3 Recap: Contenders Emerging, 0-3 Panic & Biggest Surprises
YouTube video by FTN
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
The Patriots are now last in offensive DVOA. This table shows the biggest drops in offensive DVOA from one year to Week 3 of the next year, only including teams where the previous year's QB started all 3 games. Some QBs like Brees and Favre dug out of these holes.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
Total DVOA now updated through Week 3 Sunday. San Francisco is No. 1. ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
ftnfantasy.com
Team Total DVOA
Check out every NFL team's total DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). DVOA helps identify the top teams in the league using advanced analytics. %
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FTN @ftnfantasy.com · 28/09/2026
Monday Night Football DVOA Breakdown 🏟️ Eagles @ Bears
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
The Rams had 86% Post-Game Win Expectancy last night despite having 10 more penalties (including declined/offsetting) than the Broncos. They had better offense and defense and ran 20 more plays.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
Lamar Jackson yesterday had a play listed with no intended receiver and a DPI. That kind of thing drives me NUTS. You can't have a DPI without an intended receiver. Someone had to be interfered with!!!
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
Well, that was a day. Podcast at noon tomorrow with @miketanier.bsky.social, see you all then!
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
You have to accept officiating as essentially a random number generator.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
So just like in the Ravens game, DPI that should have been OPI.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
Broncos protection has been great in the second half.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
The lesson of course is never post in the first half of any game.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
Oh Rams special teams mistake what a surprise.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
Xaiver Smith, buddy, just let that bounce into the end zone.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
Seems like the NBC broadcast is farther behind GSIS than usual.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
Oh, and besides the sack, Aaron Donald put Mike McGlinchey on his butt.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
Cubs are playing the Padres in the wild card series? Oh man, that matchup made me so depressed as a 10-year-old Cubs fan.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
As good as the Rams look tonight, I do think you see where they are missing Nacua, especially as they get closer to the goal line.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
A thought about Maye. Yes, he played an easy schedule last year, but he was far, far better than the average QB against defenses like the Browns and Falcons. Yes, he's played a hard schedule since the playoffs, but now he's been WORSE than the average QB against those defenses.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
Justin Strnad sounds like an Italian swear word.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
I think we're just going to have to write off that Week 1 Rams appearance to the jet lag. They're a wagon again tonight.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
That makes a LOT more sense.
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Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Bo Nix led all quarterbacks with 21 turnover-worthy throws in 2025 per @ftnfantasy.com. Even with his 11 picks, he was the 3rd luckiest interception thrower behind just Caleb Williams and Michael Penix.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
And that, Bo Nix, is what we call an "interception-worthy throw."
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FTN @ftnfantasy.com · 28/09/2026
Sunday Night Football DVOA Breakdown Rams @ Broncos 🏟️
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
There were three plays this week where a player got a forced fumble on a sack but didn't get part of the sack. There's usually like one of those each season. Three in a week!
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
Wow. That's the kind of game the Ravens haven't won in a long time.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
In the end, the OPI/DPI thing didn't decide the game, because it went from a medium field goal to a short field goal, and Aubrey's odds of hitting them were probably pretty close.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
Dak Prescott was smart enough to throw it away when there was nothing open and get the field goal instead of an interception.
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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 28/09/2026
I think Watt is right, that was OPI not DPI. Oy.
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