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Dr Tom Harris

@drtomharris.bsky.social
1.8K followers 202 following 1.6K posts

UK based Climate Science Writer & Advocate writing on Substack under Climate Uncovered. Retired Management Consultant specialising in Government funded R&D. Centurion Level Zwifter 🚴‍♀️

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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
It’s reporting season as we approach the COP meeting in Turkey. The Ocean State Report from Copernicus covers changes in the world’s oceans and is the 10th annual edition. Here is my summary of the findings and what it means for the next 10 years. #oceans drtomharris.substack.com/p/a-transfor...
drtomharris.substack.com
A Transforming Ocean: Key Takeaways and a Ten-Year Outlook from Ocean State Report 10
Over the last decade, ocean warming and acidification have transformed from long-term projections into active, disruptive forces reshaping ecosystems, weather systems, and marine economies.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
I'm delighted that the conversation I had with Dale Walkonen and Herb Simmens on Facing Future has been watched over ten thousand times in 5 days! www.youtube.com/watch?v=6tCR... #climatechange
youtube.com
12 Hiroshima Bombs Every Second
YouTube video by Facing Future
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Permafrost melt is hugely important as a future natural CO2 source and warming feedback. The ICCI www.iccinet.org project permafrost emissions of greenhouse gasses rivalling the US or China today as the world passes 3ºC - something that the current trajectory points to happening within 50 years.
iccinet.org
ICCI – International Cryosphere Climate Initiative – Shaping policies to protect the most fragile regions of the globe
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
The relationship between air and soil temperatures was significantly impacted by the presence of snow in the winter months. As the air warms at much faster rates in the Arctic, snow levels and pack duration are declining rapidly.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
According to the study published in Frontiers in Climate, some permafrost soils show 2-3ºC per decade warming rates at 1.2m death during the winter months. This has infrastructure implications as well as climate feedback effects.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Permafrost warming in Alaska is reaching considerable depths as Arctic Amplification pushes surface air warming past 1.15ºC per decade. A 27-year study shows warming deeper than 1m across 100% of measurement sites. www.frontiersin.org/journals/cli... #climatechange #permafrost #arctic #emissions
frontiersin.org
Frontiers | Significant soil warming across Alaska permafrost and non-permafrost regions from 1997 to 2023
IntroductionAir temperatures in Alaska are increasing at twice the rate of the contiguous United States. Soil temperatures have been shown to be increasing a...
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George Monbiot @georgemonbiot.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Please watch this crucial discussion about the scale of Earth's energy imbalance. The numbers are shocking. Thanks. www.youtube.com/watch?v=6tCR...
youtube.com
12 Hiroshima Bombs Every Second
YouTube video by Facing Future
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Found another contributor to the recent weakening of the Planck Feedback: higher tropical SSTs above 27°C... Intensifying tropical convection, suppressing outgoing longwave radiation above the systems, expanding cirrus clouds and in the wider area by increasing water vapor... #climate #earth
journals.ametsoc.org
Observed Relationships between Sea Surface Temperature, Vertical Wind Shear, Tropical Organized Deep Convection, and Radiative Effects
Abstract Organized deep convective activity has been routinely monitored by satellite precipitation radar from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Mission (GPM). Or...
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The SPG isn't separate from the AMOC; it's the front-line engine. An SPG collapse is the first domino in a broader ocean cascade. [3/3]
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Fresh meltwater from Greenland and the Arctic is capping the SPG, suppressing winter sinking via a salt-advection feedback. A collapsed SPG doesn't just lower temperatures—it shifts the Jet Stream, driving harsher winter storms, stalled summer heat blocks, and global monsoon disruptions. [2/3]
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Everyone is watching the AMOC, but a much faster-responding tipping point is flickering off Europe’s coast: the Subpolar Gyre (SPG). Operating on a decadal timescale, modeling suggests an SPG shutdown could hit by the 2040s—decades before the AMOC. 🧵 [1/3] drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-engine...
drtomharris.substack.com
The Engine in the Shadow: Why the Subpolar Gyre is Europe’s Immediate Climate Wildcard
While attention fixates on an AMOC collapse, a faster-responding subpolar tipping element could trigger severe European weather shifts and ocean cascades as early as the 2040s.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
At the heart of the gathering is a powerful question: Can humanity learn, collaborate, and evolve quickly enough to create a healthier relationship with one another, future generations, and the living planet?
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The community conversation explores agroforestry, water management, sustainable agriculture, climate interventions, resilience, regenerative economies, AI, education, and community transformation.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
John talked about the evolving WSS / PHOENIX platform, envisioned as a collaborative support system connecting people, knowledge, resources, education, and successful approaches to help communities turn understanding into meaningful action.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I took part in an interesting Fridays for Coherence event which is now available on YouTube. I gave a presentation on the current Climate Predicament, which was followed by a second presentation from John Jones of World Climate Solutions. www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpP2... #climatechange #adaptation
youtube.com
Choosing Differently: Climate Reality to Collective Action | Fridays for Coherence 9-25-26
YouTube video by World Systems Solutions
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
We discuss the current climate crisis, the looming El Niño, Earth's Energy Imbalance and food security, together with the options still available to us to limit the damage of continued global warming.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
My recent climate change conversation with Dale Walkonen and Herb Simmons for Facing Future TV is now available on YouTube. www.youtube.com/watch?v=6tCR... #climatechange #albedo #EEI #foodsecurity #feedbacks #SRM #CCS #Elnino
youtube.com
12 Hiroshima Bombs Every Second
YouTube video by Facing Future
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
A must watch 👇 natehagens.substack.com/p/a-state-of...
natehagens.substack.com
A State of the World Address: The Climate Speech We’ll Probably Never Hear
Frankly #160
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
This talk will explore the state of natural carbon sinks and sources and how they might react to continued global warming. Registration: www.meer.org/meertalks
meer.org
MEERTalks — MEER
Monthly MEERTalks with scientists, innovators and thought leaders on climate, extreme heat and sustainable cooling.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I’ll be doing a talk for MEERTalk on Friday 2nd October at 6pm BST / 1pm EDT. Registration is free and available on the link below. It will also be available live and afterwards on YouTube on the MEER SRM channel. YouTube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iFV... #climatechange #nature #carboncycle #MEER
youtube.com
MEERTalk with Tom Harris
YouTube video by MEER SRM
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The best we can hope for is to buy time until politics catches up with reality 🤞
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
In this article, I dive - sorry - into the state of coral reefs, their vulnerability, the services they provide and the techniques that could buy them some time.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The death of tropical coal reefs may be inevitable as their tipping point is crossed, but a new report provides some hope that there is time to act. drtomharris.substack.com/p/beyond-the... #climatechange #coral #coralreefs #marineheatwaves #coralbleaching #foodsecurity #coastalerosion #ecosystem
drtomharris.substack.com
Beyond the Threshold: Have Coral Reefs Crossed Earth’s First Climate Tipping Point?
A new global report stresses the vulnerability of coral reefs to warming oceans, but together with affordable technology, provides some hope that time can be bought to protect these vital ecosystems.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
This was an interesting discussion. Perhaps a thought for the future might be to have a neutral moderator to ask you both questions and ensure a more balanced result. Chris did seem a bit ganged up on by the end.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
3. We have to protect the seafloor. 4. Microplastics, forever chemicals, and other chemical pollutants present both known and yet-unknown dangers 5. We still have a chance to turn towards a safer, sustainable future
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
The report has 5 key take-aways: 1. The impacts of transgressing Planetary Boundaries are becoming increasingly clear all around us. 2. Protecting and restoring nature is necessary to have a chance of a safe climate landing for humanity 👇
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
🌍 Climate Change - Strong fail 🦈 Change in Biosphere Integrity – strong fail 🚜 Land System Change – fail 🚰 Freshwater Change – fail 🧪 Modification of Biogeochemical Flows – strong fail 🌊 Ocean Acidification – fail 🛢️ Introduction of Novel Entities – strong fail
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
The 2026 Planetary Health Check has been published. 7 of the 9 boundaries remain breached, with every one of them worse than year ago. Record ocean heat, droughts, floods, wildfires and extreme heat reveal an Earth system under strain. www.planetaryhealthcheck.org #PlanetaryBoundaries #PIK
planetaryhealthcheck.org
Planetary Health Check
We have breached 7 out of 9 Planetary Boundaries.The Planetary Health Check 2026 makes it clear: We have to act now.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
How can you write about saving the planet using an AI image for the post? The numbers may surprise you. drtomharris.substack.com/p/bonus-post... #AI #emissions #energy #climatechange
drtomharris.substack.com
Bonus Post: Pixel Accounting - Should I use AI imagery in posts about climate change?
AI has been getting a lot of bad press this week with concerns over the datacenter build out, alignment, safety, and of course, energy use and carbon emissions. Is it acceptable to use AI art?
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
I'll be a guest speaker at a Fridays for Coherence event on Friday 25th September at 1pm EDT (6pm BST), hosted by World Systems Solutions. Registration is free, please see the attached flyer. To register, please visit: forms.cloud.microsoft/pages/respon... #climatechange #event
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Richard Allan @rpallanuk.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
A global decline is mineral dust in the 2000s, plausible related to declining wind speed & stronger vegetation growth in some regions, has more likely than not added heat to our planet based on satellite data, as described in this @aaas.org Science Advances paper: www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
A global decline in atmospheric dust during the 21st century
Mineral dust affects Earth’s energy budget, clouds, and biochemistry, yet the evolution of the global dust cycle in recent decades remains shrouded in uncertainty. Here we reconstruct the global dust ...
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 16/09/2026
Your 'moment of doom' for Sept. 16, 2026 ~ Both Sides Now. "Passing 2°C of warming in the second half of the 2030s is therefore very likely, with significant implications for climate policy." drtomharris.substack.com/p/dimming-do...
drtomharris.substack.com
Dimming Down - How Albedo decline is accelerating warming and driving up climate sensitivity estimates
Disentangling aerosol unmasking from cloud feedbacks in the CERES satellite record and what a darker Earth means for accelerating warming and the Solar Geoengineering debate.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
The Earth is dimming, allowing more solar radiation to be absorbed, pushing up the energy imbalance and driving the accelerated warming being witnessed around the world. Why is this happening and could there be a solution? drtomharris.substack.com/p/dimming-do... #climatechange #albedo #aerosols
drtomharris.substack.com
Dimming Down - How Albedo decline is accelerating warming and driving up climate sensitivity estimates
Disentangling aerosol unmasking from cloud feedbacks in the CERES satellite record and what a darker Earth means for accelerating warming and the Solar Geoengineering debate.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Atlantic hurricane season is generally surpassed by El Niño during the event, but enhanced the year after. With this level of influence showing now, next year could be horrendous 🤯. ⚠️Think twice before booking a Florida holiday in 2027⚠️
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Formalising the Anthropocene would help bind them together, help science, society and policy talk about the same thing and show that we recognise the impact that we are having and the trajectory we are on.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
We know the Earth is in a polycrisis, the 7 out of 9 breached Planetary Boundaries says as much. These issues are not separate even if they are sometimes treated as such.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
This chart adapted from Dean Rovang’s work shows the Anthropocene sticking out from the other periods of the Cenozoic, the last 66 million years of Earth history. It shows the clear relationship between atmospheric CO₂ concentration and global temperature through time. We are in uncharted territory.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
The Anthropocene was rejected as a geological epoch – but the idea is still changing how we see the world according to a new article in The Conversation this week. Article: theconversation.com/the-anthropo... #Anthropocene #geology #climatechange #futuregeology
theconversation.com
The Anthropocene was rejected as a geological epoch – but the idea is still changing how we see the world
New research argues no other concept reflects our planet-wide transformation in its proper context of deep time.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
100s of years is a bit optimistic. The PETM took 70-100,000 years to return to stability, and we're forcing the system 10x faster than that event 🤯
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
It's a fair point, but the reality is nuanced. I've started researching the impacts in comparison to me creating art myself or using an image someone has captured - I'll post a detailed article in the next few weeks. Thanks for the nudge.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Nature currently absorbs half of our fossil fuel and land-use emissions, but will this subsidy continue into the future as warming accelerates ecological breakdown, damaging these very carbon sinks? drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-invers... #climatechange #carbonsinks #permafrost #Oceans #Amazon
drtomharris.substack.com
The Inversion Hazard - When Carbon Sinks become Sources beyond 2°C
Half of the CO₂ that humans emit into the atmosphere each year is safely recaptured for free by the Earth’s biological and chemical systems. Warming projections rely on this continuing, but will it?
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
This could be a screenshot from 🎬 The Day after Tomorrow 🎬, but no, it was Sept 3rd in the Pacific Ocean. Image from Michael Lowry's superb Substack: michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/lowell-las... #climatechange #elnino #hurricane #NOAA #Pacific
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
He will also discuss the oldest, largest, most biodiverse, most beautiful, and most successful coral restoration project in the world - Biorock coral restoration in Bali. Two tasters: Cuba coral reefs: www.globalcoral.org/the-last-pri...   The Biorock coral: www.globalcoral.org/biorock-cora...
globalcoral.org
The last pristine and healthy Caribbean coral reefs? - Global Coral Reef Alliance
The last pristine and healthy Caribbean coral reefs? The deadly heat waves of 2023 and 2024 killed almost all Caribbean Acropora corals (elkhorn and staghorn), wiping out years of coral "restoration" ...
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Free Webinar on the Protection and Restoration of Ecosystems from watersheds to coral reefs. Featuring Tom Goreau who has just returned from a study in Cuba visiting the last remaining healthy Caribbean reef system. Event: bio4climate.org/conferences/...
bio4climate.org
Protect and Restore Ecosystems to Cool the Planet - Biodiversity for a Livable Climate
Protect and Restore Ecosystems to Cool the Planet Third Session The Ocean Starts Upstream: Restoration and Resilience from Watersheds to Coral Reefs Saturday, September 1910:00 AM - 12:00 PM ET Regist...
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Key Findings: Canada has warmed by 2ºC, 2.6ºC in the north Expected to rise by another 1ºC by 2040 A representative scenario shows a 50% chance of 5ºC by 2081-2100, 10ºC in the North The same scenario shows a 75% loss of western glacial ice Stabilisation is entirely down to future emissions.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Canada’s Changing Climate Report 2026 issued by the Government of Canada shows warming faster than the global average and worrying trends and predictions for the Arctic in coming decades. www.canada.ca/en/environme... #climatechange #Canada #globalwarming #climateimpacts
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 03/09/2026
Dear WMO, The planet has already passed the Paris limit of 1.5°C (2.7°F) above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, and is well on its way to 2.0°C (3.6°F) by 2037. You’re welcome.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Agreed. I even used a word search to try and find mention of albedo decline. It's not there 🤯 OK if they don't want to mention SRM, but at least recognise the problem...
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Why are climate impacts consistently under-predicted? The short answer: Science is moving at the speed of rigorous peer review, whilst the planet is warming at a rate unmatched in 66 million years. drtomharris.substack.com/p/why-have-c... #climatechange #IPCC #climateimpacts #ParisAgreement
drtomharris.substack.com
Why have climate impacts been underestimated?
Records are tumbling and impacts not expected until mid-century are now hitting every continent - what happened?
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Thanks, I knew you'd know best 👍
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