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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 15h

We have something coming down the line on this and I will die on the STV hill.

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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

Our projection on the latest Ireland Thinks / @independent.ie poll: ☘️ Sinn Féin — 45 Seats ⭐ Fine Gael — 40 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 39 🟪 Social Democrats — 21 🌳 Aontú — 8 🟢 Independent Ireland — 8 🌹 Labour — 7 💬 Independent — 6 Make your own on: irishelections.ie/general/

Map of Ireland by largest party, SF North and Dublin, Independents in Midlands, FF, SD, II, Ao and FG more scattered

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

I for one am shocked to hear that JL Partners are involved in this. I just wish there had been warning signs and that someone had contacted the Telegraph about at the time. Or written about it in the Election Report. www.electionanalysis.uk/scottish-ele...

static.klipy.com

Futurama Fry: I Am Shocked, Not That Shocked

ALT: Futurama Fry: I Am Shocked, Not That Shocked

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

This is a fun wee tool, but also a really good educational tool for helping folks to understand how demographics affect secessionism in Scotland. Kudos @eoghanly.bsky.social

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

Our new Scottish Indy Calculator is out today in the @scotnational.bsky.social, move the sliders to shift party supporters and demographics one way or the other. devolvedelections.co.uk/scottish-ind... www.thenational.scot/news/2646638...

thenational.scot

New interactive polling tool maps how Scottish independence can be won or lost

A NEW polling tool which maps out how Scottish independence could be won or lost has been launched ...

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

Exactly! She trounced Astley, and all that chatter about how it being slow because it was close between 2nd and 3rd was baseless. There was no good reason to keep it quiet.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

SV is not PR, and hiding the numbers does not help teach people how it works. This is adding to the confusion becuase a bunch of candidates have been eliminated without any numbers showing why.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

They must, I guess they'll announce both counts at the same time. We do that when we one of the middling counts is just a short one to redistribute a last placed independent with 100 votes, but never for the first count.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

This isn't even a tally, it's a full on count. But yeah, a Gavan Reilly spreadsheet would sort this mess out.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

No, they have the exact numbers. They can't move on to count 2 without them.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

Why are we just skipping over the result of Count 1? This is important and useful information that they have sitting in front of them.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

Can someone explain the reason for not declaring the result of Round 1 in Greater Manchester? It's standard practice when we count STV.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

You can game it out on our site if you'd like. We have an executive builder which lets you send whoever you want into opposition. devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

Belfast West: 8.5 Foyle: 7.7 Mid Ulster: 5.1 We'll adjust it as we approach the election and have a better idea of what their plan is.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

The projected gap is under 0.1% to the SDLP and 0.2% to PBP so the UUP could absolutely take one from either. The UUP are up a lot but so are the SDLP and PBP which is limiting them in Foyle, but it does mean that UUP gains are larger in more unionist areas.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

NI party support continues to converge towards an evenly divided clump.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

There's no majority for either unionism or nationalism, but this closer than 2022 (especially if you add PBP to the Nationalist side).

Share Seats
Nationalist 38.0 36
Unionist 43.0 40
Other 19.0

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

This would be a big breakthrough for the TUV and could put them ahead of an Alliance Party who's lunch is being eaten by the Greens.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

This is the worst poll for the DUP in years. They've fallen behind the UUP in votes but should have a better geographic spread and will get more TUV transfers which keeps them ahead of the UUP in seats.

Constituency Seat 1 Seat 2 Seat 3 Seat 4 Seat 5
North Antrim TUV UUP DUP UUP Sinn Féin
East Antrim UUP UUP Alliance DUP TUV
South Antrim UUP Alliance Sinn Féin TUV DUP
Belfast North DUP Sinn Féin SDLP Alliance Sinn Féin
Belfast West PBP Sinn Féin Sinn Féin Sinn Féin DUP
Belfast South & Mid Down Green SDLP Alliance DUP Sinn Féin
Belfast East UUP DUP Green Alliance TUV
North Down UUP Alliance Green DUP DUP
Strangford TUV Alliance UUP DUP SDLP
Lagan Valley UUP Alliance SDLP UUP DUP
Upper Bann UUP DUP Sinn Féin TUV SDLP
South Down Sinn Féin SDLP Sinn Féin DUP SDLP
Newry & Armagh SDLP Sinn Féin Sinn Féin TUV UUP
Fermanagh & South Tyrone UUP DUP SDLP Sinn Féin Sinn Féin
West Tyrone SDLP Sinn Féin Sinn Féin TUV DUP
Mid Ulster Sinn Féin SDLP Sinn Féin DUP TUV
Foyle SDLP Sinn Féin SDLP PBP SDLP
East Londonderry Sinn Féin SDLP DUP UUP Independent

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

Sinn Féin and the DUP are both well, well down on 2022 which is costing a lot of seats. Alliance are also down with the UUP, TUV, SDLP and Greens benefitting.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

Our projection on the latest @belfasttelegraph.co.uk / @lucidtalk.bsky.social poll. ☘️ SF — 21 🦁 DUP — 17 🌹 SDLP — 15 🔷 UUP — 14 Ⓣ TUV — 9 🤝 AP — 8 🌱 GP — 3 ✊ PBP — 2 ⚫ Ind — 1 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

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Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

Four more great additions to this starter pack – @eoghanly.bsky.social and @ayushi31.bsky.social , founders of @devolvedelections.bsky.social and @irishelection.bsky.social . Welcome to Bluesky! Please follow, share, and as always let me know of other accounts to add 💙 go.bsky.app/EYkze8J

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

All polls in this average are from before Donaldson's was jailed for child sex offences, so the DUP will be hoping that the fallout from their former leader's conviction is limited.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

If this was the case, the TUV would have the awkward choice of going into government WITH Sinn Féin or giving their seat TO Sinn Féin. But even a single seat could change the D'Hondt calculation.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

Here is every projected constituency winner, some of the 4th and 5th seats are very close.

Belfast East Green Alliance DUP UUP Alliance
Belfast North Sinn Féin Sinn Féin DUP Alliance SDLP
Belfast South & Mid Down Green DUP Alliance SDLP Sinn Féin
Belfast West Sinn Féin Sinn Féin Sinn Féin PBP DUP
East Antrim UUP DUP Alliance UUP TUV
East Londonderry Sinn Féin DUP DUP SDLP Alliance
Fermanagh & South Tyrone UUP DUP Sinn Féin Sinn Féin SDLP
Foyle SDLP Sinn Féin SDLP Sinn Féin UUP
Lagan Valley UUP Alliance DUP Alliance TUV
Mid Ulster Sinn Féin DUP Sinn Féin Sinn Féin SDLP
Newry & Armagh SDLP Sinn Féin Sinn Féin DUP TUV
North Antrim TUV Sinn Féin UUP DUP DUP
North Down UUP Alliance Green DUP DUP
South Antrim UUP Alliance DUP TUV Sinn Féin
South Down Sinn Féin SDLP DUP Sinn Féin Alliance
Strangford TUV Alliance DUP UUP DUP
Upper Bann DUP UUP Sinn Féin Alliance TUV
West Tyrone Sinn Féin SDLP Sinn Féin DUP TUV

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

Sinn Féin would remain the largets party despite a 4% drop from 2022. The DUP are also down 4% but are losing even more seats. Alliance also down, the TUV and Greens are up the most.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

As we await the latest LucidTalk poll, here is our current Nowcast for next May's Assembly election. ☘️ SF — 23 🦁 DUP — 21 🤝 AP — 13 🔷 UUP — 11 🌹 SDLP — 10 Ⓣ TUV — 8 🌱 GP — 3 ✊ PBP — 1 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

Map of NI coloured by largest party by votes.

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Electoral Reform Society @electoralreform.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

Welsh pilots showed that using existing public data, thousands of voters can be added automatically. This smart approach removes the need for individuals to opt-in, making registration seamless and effective. The rest of the UK should follow suit. buff.ly/JDgdxwc

buff.ly

Wales becomes the first UK nation to introduce Automatic Voter Registration

Last week, the Welsh Government laid new regulations to introduce Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) across all 22 Welsh local authorities ahead of the 2027 local elections. This marks a

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Sadiq Khan would win based on his first preference lead and on transfers from Lib Dem and Green voters, regardless of whether Reform or the Tories got into the top-two run-off (tied on 18%).

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Labour are expected to win most seats whilst the Greens are expected to win 5 list seats. If Reform take a constituency (either Havering & Redbridge or Bexley & Bromley) it would be the first to ever be won by a party other than Labour, Lib Dem or Conservative.

Labour 11
Greens 5
Conservatives 4
Reform 3
Liberal Democrats 2

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Our latest projection for the London Assembly in the Evening Standard today! Labour — 11 Seats Greens — 5 Conservatives — 4 Reform — 3 Liberal Democrats — 2 From: @mileendinstitute.bsky.social / @savanta.bsky.social devolvedelections.co.uk/london/

Winners map. Lib Dem south west, Tory North East, Reform South West, Labour rest.

Runners Up. Lab in South west, Green in Centre, Reform in North East. Rest Labour

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

It's gigantic, well-publicised, deliberate, hate crime. What excuses are loyalist leaders and the English media going to make for it?

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JWexTheSpa @jwsidders.bsky.social · 20/06/2026

A shirtless white man, in the street with a knife in his hand, having attacked and wounded five people, allegedly shouting anti-Muslim slogans is the sixth story on the BBC UK news page. There is absolutely no doubt at all this would be the lead story if attacker and intended victims were reversed.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 20/06/2026

Last week far-right terrorists sent children to burn the homes of black people in Belfast. Today a man wandered around Edinburgh attacking Muslims with an ax. We need to stop validating to these racist, terrorist, thugs by pretending that their concerns are 'legitimate'.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

Survation were first so I'm not accusing you of herding. 4 different companies are not going to use exactly the same weightings. Even if they are, the effect of variation between samples should still have more of an effect than this.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

If the end is result is anywhere near 45% Lab - 40% Reform then the pollsters got lucky.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

We've had a Reform candidate who had a rough time on QT, Restore pushing hard and Burnham moderating most of his positions. Plus, lots of people have just learned that they live in Makerfield! That *none* of that has had any effect is not realistic.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Burnham should do better than that and this Reform candidate should do worse. But, all the polls are basically just showing the 2024 result for Labour and the 2024 Reform + Tory vote for Reform. It cannot be real.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Labour got 45% here last time, Reform were on 32%. Nationally, Labour are way down and Reform are way up. On national swing with generic candidates this would be an easy win for Reform. Something like: Reform 50% Labour 30%

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Polling by-elections is hard, samples are smaller and people make up their minds late. That should mean the polls change more and faster than normal. Instead, they've been almost identical for a month!

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Makerfield's polls are 'herded'. They're nonsense. So we have absolutely no idea who's winning or by how much. 🧵

Convergent Opinions: Lab 49, Reform 37
More in Common: Lab 45, Reform 40
Opinium: Lab 46, Reform 41
Survation: Lab 49, Reform 39
Survation: Lab 43, Reform 40

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 13/06/2026

Last week there were a handful of bigots following orders from terror gangs and foreign agitators. Today there were thousands of us with legitimate concerns about the people who are actually damaging our wee country. #NoPasarán

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Colman O'Sullivan @colmanos.bsky.social · 13/06/2026

Thousands have turned out for an Anti-Racism rally in Belfast city centre, organised by United Against Racism and supported by Trade Unions

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Hannah Graham @drhannahgraham.bsky.social · 13/06/2026

A wee group of angry balaclava and mask-wearing anti-immigration guys tried to stop the good people of Glasgow showing solidarity with migrants and standing up to racism and fascism. Well, the far right are far outnumbered... #RefugeesWelcome #MigrantsWelcome #NeighboursNotStrangers #Glasgow

Photo of a small group of mostly men wearing black, with masks and balaclavas, surrounded by a Police Scotland cordon in the bottom of the photo, in the foreground. In the background, a very large colourful crowd of people with saltires, trade union banners, and hand-made signs in support of migrants and against racism have turned up to gather to show solidarity, and the far right guys were hoping to thwart that. They didn't.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

You can only come to this view if you: A. Know absolutely nothing about Northern Ireland. B. Are too lazy to use Google. **And** C. Are a racist.

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Lizzie Dearden @lizziedearden.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

The family of the Belfast stabbing victim have released a statement saying - like the family of Henry Nowak last week - that the attack should not be used to "divide people or fuel hostility" They condemned disorder and praised the "valuable contribution" by migrants inews.co.uk/news/politic...

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Attempted murder. Please get the basics right.

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