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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

The projected gap is under 0.1% to the SDLP and 0.2% to PBP so the UUP could absolutely take one from either. The UUP are up a lot but so are the SDLP and PBP which is limiting them in Foyle, but it does mean that UUP gains are larger in more unionist areas.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

NI party support continues to converge towards an evenly divided clump.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

There's no majority for either unionism or nationalism, but this closer than 2022 (especially if you add PBP to the Nationalist side).

Share Seats
Nationalist 38.0 36
Unionist 43.0 40
Other 19.0

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

This is the worst poll for the DUP in years. They've fallen behind the UUP in votes but should have a better geographic spread and will get more TUV transfers which keeps them ahead of the UUP in seats.

Constituency Seat 1 Seat 2 Seat 3 Seat 4 Seat 5
North Antrim TUV UUP DUP UUP Sinn Féin
East Antrim UUP UUP Alliance DUP TUV
South Antrim UUP Alliance Sinn Féin TUV DUP
Belfast North DUP Sinn Féin SDLP Alliance Sinn Féin
Belfast West PBP Sinn Féin Sinn Féin Sinn Féin DUP
Belfast South & Mid Down Green SDLP Alliance DUP Sinn Féin
Belfast East UUP DUP Green Alliance TUV
North Down UUP Alliance Green DUP DUP
Strangford TUV Alliance UUP DUP SDLP
Lagan Valley UUP Alliance SDLP UUP DUP
Upper Bann UUP DUP Sinn Féin TUV SDLP
South Down Sinn Féin SDLP Sinn Féin DUP SDLP
Newry & Armagh SDLP Sinn Féin Sinn Féin TUV UUP
Fermanagh & South Tyrone UUP DUP SDLP Sinn Féin Sinn Féin
West Tyrone SDLP Sinn Féin Sinn Féin TUV DUP
Mid Ulster Sinn Féin SDLP Sinn Féin DUP TUV
Foyle SDLP Sinn Féin SDLP PBP SDLP
East Londonderry Sinn Féin SDLP DUP UUP Independent

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

Sinn Féin and the DUP are both well, well down on 2022 which is costing a lot of seats. Alliance are also down with the UUP, TUV, SDLP and Greens benefitting.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

Our projection on the latest @belfasttelegraph.co.uk / @lucidtalk.bsky.social poll. ☘️ SF — 21 🦁 DUP — 17 🌹 SDLP — 15 🔷 UUP — 14 Ⓣ TUV — 9 🤝 AP — 8 🌱 GP — 3 ✊ PBP — 2 ⚫ Ind — 1 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

If this was the case, the TUV would have the awkward choice of going into government WITH Sinn Féin or giving their seat TO Sinn Féin. But even a single seat could change the D'Hondt calculation.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

Here is every projected constituency winner, some of the 4th and 5th seats are very close.

Belfast East Green Alliance DUP UUP Alliance
Belfast North Sinn Féin Sinn Féin DUP Alliance SDLP
Belfast South & Mid Down Green DUP Alliance SDLP Sinn Féin
Belfast West Sinn Féin Sinn Féin Sinn Féin PBP DUP
East Antrim UUP DUP Alliance UUP TUV
East Londonderry Sinn Féin DUP DUP SDLP Alliance
Fermanagh & South Tyrone UUP DUP Sinn Féin Sinn Féin SDLP
Foyle SDLP Sinn Féin SDLP Sinn Féin UUP
Lagan Valley UUP Alliance DUP Alliance TUV
Mid Ulster Sinn Féin DUP Sinn Féin Sinn Féin SDLP
Newry & Armagh SDLP Sinn Féin Sinn Féin DUP TUV
North Antrim TUV Sinn Féin UUP DUP DUP
North Down UUP Alliance Green DUP DUP
South Antrim UUP Alliance DUP TUV Sinn Féin
South Down Sinn Féin SDLP DUP Sinn Féin Alliance
Strangford TUV Alliance DUP UUP DUP
Upper Bann DUP UUP Sinn Féin Alliance TUV
West Tyrone Sinn Féin SDLP Sinn Féin DUP TUV

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

Sinn Féin would remain the largets party despite a 4% drop from 2022. The DUP are also down 4% but are losing even more seats. Alliance also down, the TUV and Greens are up the most.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

As we await the latest LucidTalk poll, here is our current Nowcast for next May's Assembly election. ☘️ SF — 23 🦁 DUP — 21 🤝 AP — 13 🔷 UUP — 11 🌹 SDLP — 10 Ⓣ TUV — 8 🌱 GP — 3 ✊ PBP — 1 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

Map of NI coloured by largest party by votes.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Labour are expected to win most seats whilst the Greens are expected to win 5 list seats. If Reform take a constituency (either Havering & Redbridge or Bexley & Bromley) it would be the first to ever be won by a party other than Labour, Lib Dem or Conservative.

Labour 11
Greens 5
Conservatives 4
Reform 3
Liberal Democrats 2

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Our latest projection for the London Assembly in the Evening Standard today! Labour — 11 Seats Greens — 5 Conservatives — 4 Reform — 3 Liberal Democrats — 2 From: @mileendinstitute.bsky.social / @savanta.bsky.social devolvedelections.co.uk/london/

Winners map. Lib Dem south west, Tory North East, Reform South West, Labour rest.

Runners Up. Lab in South west, Green in Centre, Reform in North East. Rest Labour

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Makerfield's polls are 'herded'. They're nonsense. So we have absolutely no idea who's winning or by how much. 🧵

Convergent Opinions: Lab 49, Reform 37
More in Common: Lab 45, Reform 40
Opinium: Lab 46, Reform 41
Survation: Lab 49, Reform 39
Survation: Lab 43, Reform 40

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 07/06/2026

At the executive, the SDLP would be back to qualifying for a seat as the big three slip backwards from 2022.

SF 4 ministries, DUP 3, Alliance, UUP and SDLP all 1

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 07/06/2026

Its a relatively poor poll for the TUV (compared to recent polls) and a good one for the UUP. Some of the fallout from the Beattie - Burrows battle is probably in here but we don't know exactly how that played out with voters. It's solid for the DUP.

Map of Northern Ireland, coloured by largest party

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 07/06/2026

The Greens are the biggest movers . They're up to 6% which a huge share for them. This would inevitably take at least three seats. North Down, BS&MD, and East Belfast are the best bets but North Belfast is in the mix.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 07/06/2026

This is a decent poll for Sinn Féin compared to some recent ones, ditto for Alliance. Both are still down a bit though. Alliance are holding a lot of seats based on Green transfers.

North Antrim TUV Sinn Féin UUP DUP Alliance
East Antrim UUP DUP UUP Alliance Alliance
South Antrim Alliance UUP Sinn Féin DUP TUV
Belfast North Sinn Féin Sinn Féin DUP Alliance Green
Belfast West Sinn Féin Sinn Féin Sinn Féin Sinn Féin DUP
Belfast South & Mid Down Green DUP Alliance SDLP Sinn Féin
Belfast East Green Alliance DUP UUP Alliance
North Down Green Alliance UUP DUP DUP
Strangford DUP Alliance UUP TUV Alliance
Lagan Valley DUP UUP Alliance DUP Alliance
Upper Bann DUP UUP Alliance Sinn Féin TUV
South Down Sinn Féin SDLP DUP Sinn Féin Alliance
Newry & Armagh SDLP Sinn Féin Sinn Féin DUP TUV
Fermanagh & South Tyrone UUP DUP Sinn Féin Sinn Féin SDLP
West Tyrone Sinn Féin DUP SDLP Sinn Féin Sinn Féin
Mid Ulster Sinn Féin DUP Sinn Féin Sinn Féin SDLP
Foyle Sinn Féin SDLP Sinn Féin SDLP UUP
East Londonderry Sinn Féin DUP SDLP UUP DUP

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 07/06/2026

Our projection based on the latest Liverpool University poll: ☘️ SF — 25 🦁 DUP — 20 🤝 AP — 15 🔷 UUP — 12 🌹 SDLP — 9 Ⓣ TUV — 5 🌱 GP — 4 Make your own on: devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

We have our first results for the 2026 devolved elections! Two widely expected results Scotland Lib Dem: Orkney SNP: Dundee City West devolvedelections.co.uk/results/ We're also top of the accuracy league table! I know it's meaningless right now but it might be the last time it happens

1 Devolved elections
2 Poll Check
3 YouGov's second MRP

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

We're going to be running live results and a side by side comparison of all MRPs and lots of Projection sites. The pages are live now and will update as results come in tomorrow. Results: devolvedelections.co.uk/results/ Accuracy: devolvedelections.co.uk/accuracy/

Comparison page

List of all Senedd MRPs, with links for Scotland and projections.

https://devolvedelections.co.uk/accuracy/

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

There are multiple potential different outcomes in every Senedd constituency, nothing is decided and the final seats will come down to tiny margins. Go out and vote, its just a simple X. devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects

For full seat by seat options see: https://devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

There are 12 Scottish constituencies with a over 25% of going to different parties, and far more than that which could flip if some of yesterday's oultying polls are right. List seats everywhere can be decided by small margins Go out and vote! devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro...

Galloway & West Dumfires, Edinburgh Central,
Dumfriesshire, Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch,
Banffshire & Buchan Coast, Aberdeenshire West,
Edinburgh Northen, Argyll & Bute, Glasgow Kelvin & Maryhill, Ettrick, Roxburgh and berwickshire,
East Lothiana nd Lammermuirs, Aberdeen Central

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

It's almost a perfect 50-50 split in terms of who's going to be the largest party by seats. Across 1000 simulations Plaid won 498 and Reform won 502.

Reform's chance of being largest is 50.2%, they have a 49.8% of coming second.
Plaid Cymru's chance of being largest is 49.8%, they have a 50.2% of coming second.

Mean seats
Reform 33.6
Plaid 33.4
Labour 13.2
Greens 7.2
Con 5.9
Lib Dem 2.7

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Reform and Plaid Cymru should get at least 1 seat everywhere, usually at least 2. Labour also likely to have a majority in most constituencies. Labour aren't likely to get more than 1 anywhere. The Conservatives, Lib Dems and Tories are a bit more sporadic.

Constituency Seat 1 Seat 2 Seat 3 Seat 4 Seat 5 Seat 6
Afan Ogwr Rhondda Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Labour Reform
Bangor Conwy Môn Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru
Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru
Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd Reform Plaid Cymru Liberal Democrats Reform Greens Labour
Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf Plaid Cymru Greens Reform Labour Liberal Democrats Plaid Cymru
Caerdydd Penarth Plaid Cymru Reform Greens Labour Plaid Cymru Reform
Casnewydd Islwyn Reform Plaid Cymru Labour Greens Conservatives Reform
Ceredigion Penfro Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Liberal Democrats Plaid Cymru Reform
Clwyd Reform Conservatives Plaid Cymru Labour Reform Conservatives
Fflint Wrecsam Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Conservatives Plaid Cymru
Gwynedd Maldwyn Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru
Gŵyr Abertawe Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Greens Reform
Pen-y-Bont Bro Morgannwg Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Conservatives Reform
Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Plaid Cymru Reform
Sir Fynwy Torfaen Reform Reform Labour Conservatives Plaid Cymru Greens
Sir Gaerfyrddin Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Labour Plaid Cymru

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

A broad left government or a Plaid/Lab government are both on the cards. Reform don't have a viable to path to a majority.

Plaid 34 + Lab 13 + Green 6 = 53. Majority of 5.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Lots of conflicting polls today means big changes to our Senedd Nowcast. We have a dead heat in seats and a small Plaid lead in votes. 🌼 PC — 34 ➡️ Ref — 34 🌹 Lab — 13 🌳 Con — 6 🌱 GP — 6 🐤 LD — 3 Make your own on: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

The SNP would need the Greens to get to a majority (case-by-case or formal coalition). An SNP majority is not impossible but does look less likely than a few weeks ago.

SNP 60 + Green 12 = 72. 8 seat majority.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

On the List we don't think the SNP will win any seats. Labour, the Greens and Reform should get 1 everywhere, the Tories only miss out in Glasgow. This would change a lot with just a little shift in the constituencies.

Central and Lothians West - 3 Lab, 1 Con, 1 Green, 2 Reform
Edinburgh and Lothians East - 1 Lab, 1 Con, 1 LD, 3 Green, 2 Reform
Glasgow - 3 Lab, 2 Green, 2 Reform
Highlands and Islands - 1 Lab, 2 Con, 2 Green, 2 Reform
Mid Scotland and Fife - 2 Lab, 1 Con, 1 LD, 1 Green, 2 Reform
North East Scotland - 1 Lab, 1 Con, 1 LD, 1 Green, 3 Reform
South Scotland - 2 Lab, 1 Con, 1 Green, 3 Reform
West Scotland - 2 Lab, 1 Con, 1 LD, 1 Green, 2 Reform

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Here are 4 of those non-SNP seats (1 per party) some are razor thin. All, none or some could go another way. Our Monte Carlo system gives a better idea of this complexity. devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro...

Edinburgh Central
Greens 24.8
Labour 24.3
SNP 23.4

Banffshire & Buchan Coast
Reform 35
SNP 31.6
Conservatives 19.9

Dumfriesshire
Con 30.4
SNP 28.8
Reform 23.3

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

The SNP continue to win most constituency seats across Scotland but recent polling has seen them dip. The Tories in the South, Lib Dems in Highlands, and then scattered other challengers are hurting the SNP.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

After a flurry of polls this is our Nowcast with 2 days to go. Our final one will be live tomorrow. 🎗️ SNP — 60 ➡️ Ref — 19 🌹 Lab — 18 🌱 GP — 12 🌳 Con — 10 🐤 LD — 10 Make your own: devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

We're two days out from the election I have no idea who is going to get the most Senedd seats. It's neck and neck in the polls.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

A few more or less to either Reform or Plaid is pretty achievable on the same vote. But I doubt that you could win 43 seats on just 33%. The system is too proportional for that. I tried our regional variation button about 30 times, the best I got was 42.

Random Regional Variation Number 30

Plaid 42
Reform 36
Labour 9
Green 4
Lib Dem 3
Tory 2

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

For the brand new big 2 its close, with Plaid a little ahead. Our model is a little more generous to Reform than YouGov's and its a lot less kind to Plaid. It would mean Plaid only need Labour to reach the majority line, most other polls require the Greens to make up the numbers.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

Seat by seat. This is very bad for labour and, on these numbers, Eluned Morgan isn't even close to getting in. It's also pretty poor for the Greens compared to recent polls. But 4 seats would still be a breakthrough.

Constituency Seat 1 Seat 2 Seat 3 Seat 4 Seat 5 Seat 6
Afan Ogwr Rhondda Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Labour
Bangor Conwy Môn Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru
Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Labour Reform Plaid Cymru
Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd Reform Plaid Cymru Liberal Democrats Reform Plaid Cymru Greens
Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf Plaid Cymru Reform Greens Liberal Democrats Labour Plaid Cymru
Caerdydd Penarth Plaid Cymru Reform Greens Plaid Cymru Labour Reform
Casnewydd Islwyn Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Greens Conservatives Plaid Cymru
Ceredigion Penfro Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Liberal Democrats Plaid Cymru Reform
Clwyd Reform Conservatives Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Reform
Fflint Wrecsam Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Labour
Gwynedd Maldwyn Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru
Gŵyr Abertawe Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Reform Plaid Cymru Labour
Pen-y-Bont Bro Morgannwg Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Reform Conservatives
Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Labour Reform
Sir Fynwy Torfaen Reform Reform Plaid Cymru Conservatives Labour Reform
Sir Gaerfyrddin Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Labour

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

Our projection on the latest @yougov.co.uk / @cardiffuni.bsky.social / @itvnews.bsky.social poll. 🌼 PC — 37 ➡️ Ref — 36 🌹 Lab — 12 🌳 Con — 4 🌱 GP — 4 🐤 LD — 3 devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

This is Reform's best poll in months but even under our model, which is probably the most generous to Reform, it's not enough to form a stable government.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

This differs from the MRP in a few ways, we agree on the top party in 14/16 constituencies. We have Reform ahead in Gŵyr Abertawe with Plaid leading Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni. They have the opposite.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

The Lib Dems would be down to just 1 seat, Eluned Morgan loses her seat. All in all its pretty bad for Labour and the Lib Dems. Its good for the Greens.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

Our projection on the latest @moreincommonuk.bsky.social poll for Thursday's Senedd election. ➡️ Ref — 34 🌼 PC — 33 🌹 Lab — 13 🌳 Con — 9 🌱 GP — 6 🐤 LD — 1 devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

Reform's 22% on the regions is their highest ever so they pick up a lot of seats. Everyone else gets 1 or 2 here and their, except Labour in Glasgow (3). The SNP taking 1 in Highlands & Islands is their best hope for a list seat anywhere.

Central and Lothians West - 2 Lab, 1 Con, 1 Green, 3 Reform
Edinburgh and Lothians East - 1 Lab, 1 Con, 1 LD, 2 Green, 2 Reform
Glasgow - 3 Lab, 1 Green, 3 Reform
Highlands and Islands - 1 SNP, 1 Lab, 2 Con, 1 Green, 2 Reform
Mid Scotland and Fife - 1 Lab, 1 Con, 1 LD, 1 Green, 3 Reform
North East Scotland - 1 Lab, 1 Con, 1 LD, 1 Green, 3 Reform
South Scotland - 2 Lab, 1 LD, 1 Green, 3 Reform
West Scotland - 2 Lab, 1 LD, 1 Green, 3 Reform

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

The constituencies with diagonal hatchings are on a knife-edge so could easily go another way. They include Ediburgh Central, Galloway & West Dumfries, Strathkelvin & Bearsden, Eastwood and Ayr.

Strathkelvin & Bearsden
SNP 32.5
Lib Dem 31.1

Galloway & West Dumfries

Con 32,
Reform 29.2
SNP 28.2

Glasgow Central
Green 24.4
SNP 23
Lab 22.1

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

Another colourful map! This is a pretty strong poll for the Lib Dems which puts them over the top in most of their target seats. Labour, the Greens, the Tories and Reform all win at least 1 constituency.

56 SNP constituecy seats
1 Reform
8 Lib Dems
2 Lab
2 Green
4 Conservatives

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

Our Projection on the latest @moreincommonuk.bsky.social poll. 🎗️ SNP — 57 ➡️ Ref — 23 🌹 Lab — 15 🐤 LD — 13 🌱 GP — 11 🌳 Con — 10 Play around with your own numbers on: devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 03/05/2026

What does winning mean? Plaid Cymru The latest in our Party by Party blogs looks at Plaid's chances, and why becoming first minister looks almost inevitable. devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/plaid-c...

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 03/05/2026

This is one poll and it's a bit of an outlier, that doesn't mean its wrong but averages are generally better.

Constituency polling

SNP 37.5
Lab 18.6
Reform 18
Con 11.7
LD 10.5
Green 1.6

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 03/05/2026

There are a lot of seats that would be close on these numbers and the SNP only get 1 list seta to compensate. This is how tactical voting can have a huge impact.

Rutherglen & Cambusland

Lab 37.1
SNP 35.7

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 03/05/2026

On the list Reform and the Greens pick up seats everywhere on these numbers.

Central and Lothians West - 3 Lab, 1 Con, 1 Green, 2 Reform
Edinburgh and Lothians East - 1 Con, 1 LD, 3 Green, 2 Reform
Glasgow - 2 Lab, 1 Con, 2 Green, 2 Reform
Highlands and Islands - 1 SNP, 1 Lab, 2 Con, 1 Green, 2 Reform
Mid Scotland and Fife - 2 Lab, 1 Con, 1 LD, 1 Green, 2 Reform
North East Scotland - 1 Lab, 2 Con, 1 LD, 1 Green, 2 Reform
South Scotland - 2 Lab, 1 LD, 1 Con, 1 Green, 3 Reform
West Scotland - 2 Lab, 1 Con, 1 LD, 1 Green, 2 Reform

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 03/05/2026

This is a really colourful map, unusually so. It's not a bad poll for the SNP, but it works out that way because Reform are down. The Tories, Labour, & Lib Dems are all up a bit and their support is more concentrated in key constituencies.

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