iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Our projection for the next Irish General Election from @redcresearch.bsky.social / @businesspost.bsky.social ☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats ⭐ Fine Gael — 38 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 32 🟪 Soc Dem — 23 🌹 Labour — 12 💬 Inds— 10 🌳 Aontú — 6 🟢 Ind Ireland — 6 ✊ PBP-S — 2 🌱 Green — 1

100

Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

We've added a new (optional) table which lets you see what would happen if Irish elections were run under different systems. Here is 2024: irishelections.ie/general/

120

Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

Our projection on the latest Ireland Thinks / @independent.ie poll: ☘️ Sinn Féin — 45 Seats ⭐ Fine Gael — 40 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 39 🟪 Social Democrats — 21 🌳 Aontú — 8 🟢 Independent Ireland — 8 🌹 Labour — 7 💬 Independent — 6 Make your own on: irishelections.ie/general/

Map of Ireland by largest party, SF North and Dublin, Independents in Midlands, FF, SD, II, Ao and FG more scattered

163

Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

Our projection on the latest Ireland Thinks / @independent.ie polls: ⭐ Fine Gael — 42 Seats ☘️ Sinn Féin — 42 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 38 🟪 Social Democrats — 21 💬 Independent — 10 🟢 Independent Ireland — 8 🌳 Aontú — 7 🌹 Labour — 6 irishelections.ie/general/

100

Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Our projection on the latest IrelandThinks poll for @independent.ie ⭐ Fine Gael — 42 Seats ☘️ Sinn Féin — 40 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 38 🟪 Soc Dem — 23 💬 Independent — 10 🟢 Ind Ireland — 8 🌹 Labour — 7 🌳 Aontú — 4 🌱 Green — 2 irishelections.ie

100

Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 28/06/2026

Our projection based on the latest RedC / @businesspost.bsky.social poll ☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats ⭐ Fine Gael — 36 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 32 🟪 Social Democrats — 28 💬 Independent — 10 🌹 Labour — 7 🟢 Independent Ireland — 7 ✊ PBP-S — 5 🌳 Aontú — 4 🌱 Green — 1 irishelections.ie

Map coloured by largest party: Very scattered colours

142

Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 24/05/2026

Our projection of Dublin Central (left) compared to real life (right). The system works!

131

Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 23/05/2026

Our model works with any set of numbers so you can see how we think the transfers would play out. On Gavan's current numbers, we have the Soc Docs taking Dublin Central. irishelections.ie/bye-elections/

220

Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 22/05/2026

Our calls of Dublin Central and Galway West as polls closed. Based on national swing, Fine Gael should take Galway West and the Social Democrats should take Dublin Central. irishelections.ie/bye-elections/

232

Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 01/02/2026

An IrishElections projection on the latest Ireland/Thinks Sunday Independent poll ☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 41 ⭐ Fine Gael — 36 🟪 Social Democrats — 21 🌹 Labour — 9 🟢 Independent Ireland — 8 💬 Independent — 6 🌳 Aontú — 4 ✊ PBP-S — 4 🌱 Green — 1 From irishelections.ie/general

Parliament chart showing seats as stated in tweet.

142

Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

Our Projection based on the latest RedC research / @businesspost.bsky.social poll: ☘️ Sinn Féin — 50 Seats ⭐ Fine Gael — 37 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 35 🟪 Social Democrats — 23 💬 Independent — 12 🌹 Labour — 9 🟢 Independent Ireland — 4 🌳 Aontú — 3 ✊ PBP-S — 1 From irishelections.ie

Map of Ireland coloured by largest party per constituency.

Table showing results as described in tweet

122

Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 07/12/2025

An IrishElections projection on the latest Ireland/Thinks Sunday Independent poll ☘️ Sinn Féin — 50 Seats 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 45 ⭐ Fine Gael — 37 🟪 Social Democrats — 16 💬 Independent — 8 🌹 Labour — 7 🟢 Independent Ireland — 6 🌳 Aontú — 4 ✊ PBP-S — 1

194

Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 25/10/2025

A projection for the next NI Assembly based on the latest LucidTalk - @belfasttelegraph.co.uk poll ☘️ SF — 23 🦁 DUP — 17 🤝 AP — 12 🔷 UUP — 10 🌹 SDLP — 11 Ⓣ TUV — 12 ✊ PBP — 2 🌱 GP — 2 ⚫ Ind — 1 From devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ireland/

000

Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 04/10/2025

An IrishElections projection based on the latest IrelandThinks poll for @independent.ie 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 46 Seats ☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 ⭐ Fine Gael — 39 🟪 Social Democrats — 18 🌹 Labour — 9 💬 Independent — 8 🟢 Independent Ireland — 5 🌳 Aontú — 3 ✊ PBP-S — 2 irishelections.ie/general/

010

Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 24/09/2025

We've finalised our Presidential projection with Connolly, Gavin and Humphreys as the only candidates to be nominated. Play around with transfer rates and first preferences to see who could win! Presets will be added once polls come in. irishelections.ie/presidential/

irishelections.ie

Irish Election Projections

Create and share your own Irish election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

000

Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 14/09/2025

A projection based on the latest Red C/Business Post poll: ☘️ Sinn Féin — 42 Seats 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 40 ⭐ Fine Gael — 38 🟪 Social Democrats — 20 💬 Independent — 11 🌹 Labour — 9 🟢 Independent Ireland — 8 ✊ PBP-S — 4 🌱 Green — 1 🌳 Aontú — 1 From @irishelection.bsky.social

010

Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 13/09/2025

We've introduced an Irish Presidential Election projection! Enter your first preferences and play with their transfer freindliness to project a winner. irishelections.ie/presidential/

111

Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 03/08/2025

A projection based on the Ireland Thinks poll for @independent.ie: 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats ☘️ Sinn Féin — 40 ⭐ Fine Gael — 38 🟪 Social Democrats — 19 💬 Independent — 11 🌹 Labour — 10 🟢 Independent Ireland — 7 🌳 Aontú — 2 ✊ PBP-S — 2 ⚪ Other — 1 irishelections.ie/general/

irishelections.ie

Irish Election Projections

Create and share your own Irish election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

032

Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 29/07/2025

🗳️🇮🇪Who’s Winning? We Actually Have the Data. We’ve launched irishelections.ie — the place where Irish election projections make sense. 📊 Real-time seat forecasts 📈 Constituency breakdowns 🤓 Politics, but with fewer opinions and more numbers 👉 irishelections.ie

irishelections.ie

Irish Election Projections

Create and share your own Irish election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

042