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Reposted by David Zentler-Munro

Francesca Salvati @francescasalvati.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Our paper "Disruption in the Classroom: Experimental Evidence from Ecuador" is forthcoming in the American Economic Journal: Applied Economics and featured in VoxDev today! voxdev.org/topic/educat...

voxdev.org

The hidden cost of disruptive classmates on test scores

A field experiment in Ecuador finds that a small number of children with persistent behavioural problems lower the achievement of their classmates. The effects are larger for younger children, increas...

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David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

On the up-side they've given you a new article to write on declining inactivity rates :)

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David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Interesting: similar to hypothesis that some bigger German companies favour collective bargaining agreements to screen out smaller competitors (and iirc some Silicon Valley companies called for CBAs there)

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Reposted by David Zentler-Munro

David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

1/4 This was a lot of fun to write and now to see published! We digitised information on German collective bargaining negotiations (CBNs) - both initial trade union demands and final outcomes - going back to the early 1990s. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

You Can't Always Get What You Want? Collective Bargaining Demands and Outcomes

Trade union demands are a key input for collective bargaining negotiations (CBNs). However, there is little quantitative evidence on these demands and how they shape CBN outcomes. We digitize novel d...

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David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

4/4 Still much to explore: Alice, @nidhaan.bsky.social and I are now looking at the impact of the German minimum wage introduction on collective bargaining coverage and CBNs.

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David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

3/4 Policy: CBNs at times substitute for legislation e.g. when entitlement to sick pay was reduced we see a spike in CBN demands to restore entitlement (1996). At other times, CBNs seem to complement legislation e.g when Govt incentivised pension saving we see a peak in related CBN demands (2001)

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David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

2/4 Macro interest: both trade union demands and final CBN outcomes are responsive to the cycle. We also demands are relatively backward looking when it comes to inflation while outcomes are more forward looking.

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David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

You Can't Always Get What You Want? Collective Bargaining Demands and Outcomes

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Reposted by David Zentler-Munro

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Confused, error-ridden, fact-free rant from Camilla Cavendish dressed up as "legitimate concerns." This final section is particularly egregious nonsense www.ft.com/content/acfe...

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https://www.ft.com/content/acfe49a7-3b6d-4930-a37a-5f1b91ed6dc8?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Public trust will be rebuilt not only by taking tough decisions but by believing that these policies are correct rather than a necessarily evil to see off bogeymen on the right. Some of the most vituperative comments I’ve heard recently, about newcomers taking advantage of our system, were from young people who came to the UK in the past 10 years to work hard and make a life. They believe that Britain’s open, meritocratic culture is precious and that cohesion is fraying. The new prime minister needs to show his hand.

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Reposted by David Zentler-Munro

Alex Busch @alexanderbusch.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Cool new paper by Gergs, Kuegler, and @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social in the IR Berkeley special issue on collective bargaining! They analyze union demands and negotiation outcomes in Germany over ~25 years: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

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Reposted by David Zentler-Munro

Jack Saundrs @jacksaundrs.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

Swear to god, all national newspaper university commentary is just "it is bad that the thing we demanded had the intended effect"

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David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

Interesting but wondered what are the pre-dec 24 trends like? Was Canada already outpacing the US?

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David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

No you didn’t. It was a response addressed at those sceptical to idea that energy/utility price reductions might have a reasonably persistent inflation impact but presumably not sceptical to idea that oil price shocks can have persistent inflationary effects.

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David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

Not my field by any means, but it feels like if you worry that positive oil price shocks might lead to wage-price spirals then you should also be open to the idea that negative energy price shocks might dampen wage-price spirals

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David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

£9b of cumulative tax revenue over what time horizon? If that’s lifetime value then seems like relatively small beer for breaking IPCC red lines on no new oil field development

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The Balderdook @balderdash.bsky.social · 13/06/2026

McTominay’s been in Italy for two years where the diet has helped elevate him to Godlike status. He’s in the US for two days, has a bite to eat and has hardly been off the toilet since. The American food debate is settled.

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The Balderdook @balderdash.bsky.social · 30/05/2025

Lovely story re Scott McTominay (moved to Italy even though he wasn’t keen), played superbly and helped them win the league. Held in (almost) as high regard as Maradona now. Great lesson for experiencing new things. When asked of his main memory he said, ‘Can’t believe how good the tomatoes taste.’

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Reposted by David Zentler-Munro

Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 31/05/2026

Ok so don't borrow from them then, that's fine. Do it all with taxes, knock yerself out

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David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 27/05/2026

Whose life expectancy? There’s a decent income gradient.

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David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 25/05/2026

As ever, looks like a budget british rip-off of a US trend

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David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 02/05/2026

So “spending on oldies is not fair/unaffordable” is surely too simple, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t good grounds for criticising the triple lock

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David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 02/05/2026

also: transfers to people in childhood versus transfers while old is not neutral with respect to lifetime total income since spending in younger years (depending on scope) likely has a multiplier effect on earnings.

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David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 02/05/2026

In other words it seems fair to argue the life cycle distribution of income implied by triple lock is not optimal

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David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 02/05/2026

I think you can both acknowledge that today’s young will benefit from higher pensions tomorrow, and acknowledge that utility is not linear - so starving myself today to be rich tomorrow might not make sense (exaggerating of course, but hopefully the point is clear)

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David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

Whats the beef with outlook? Works fine for me. Contrarian take I know.

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Henry Pryor @pryor.co.uk · 14/03/2026

“But, as you see, it's a beautiful day, the Strait of Hormuz is open and people are having a wonderful time!” (Credit to @ScarletCinema on X)

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UCU Essex @ucuessex.bsky.social · 28/02/2026

The VC has planned to cut 400 jobs, close the Southend campus, demolish the Essex Pathways (foundation year) department, and decimate other departments like language & linguistics, maths & stats and business. She met us for an all-staff meeting on Thursday. It was... fascinating! Let's fact-check.

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David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 28/02/2026

This but for economics: the quicker migrants become citizens the less the risk that employers can exploit them to lower wages (both migrants’ wages and natives)

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David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 05/01/2026

i reassure myself that it's ok to be an ideas guy :/

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David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 05/01/2026

This paper (R&R Restud) suggests displacement from German manufacturing resulted in downgrades for low paid workers in particular (to low productivity service jobs). So yes the RF take looks rather optimistic. drive.google.com/file/d/1ucVk...

drive.google.com

Displacement_Effects_in_Manufacturing.pdf

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Reposted by David Zentler-Munro

flyingrodent @flyingrodent.bsky.social · 04/11/2025

What Hillary is saying here is a conspiracy theory and not even a tame, silly one, but a whopper. A more balefully consequential and widespread one than e.g. Trump complaining that the media lied about his crowds being big.

Hillary Clinton on the generational shift on Israel inside the Democrats.
"We have done a miserable job teaching young people history.
"And, you know, those of us who have lived through it, I went to Israel for the first time in 1980, so a long time ago, and I've been back many times. And obviously, you know, with my husband, deeply involved in all kinds of activities to support Israel and to try to be as helpful as possible. But it was astonishing to me because I had so many conversations, and frankly, they often started as confrontations with students, not just at Columbia, but elsewhere.
"Where were they getting their information?
They were getting it from social media. They were getting it most particularly from TikTok, which is governed by an algorithm until at least up till now, still largely manipulated by the Chinese Communist Party.

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David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 08/10/2025

I also share your gripe whenever I hear the "China has built X km of railways in the time the UK/US/somewhere else has built X/1000"

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David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 02/10/2025

In the same way that independent judiciaries also constrain democracies? I’m more convinced by the ex-post argument that fiscal policy is no better, than the ex ante argument that the OBR is fundamentally undemocratic

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David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 25/09/2025

It’s an important distinction for us academics, but less clear that it’s important for voters. And the rise in poverty is an important rejoinder to the many “why were voters so angry when wages are up” takes

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Reposted by David Zentler-Munro

Brian Jay Jones @brianjayjones.com · 24/09/2025

Jim Henson would've been 89 years old today. Commemorate his life and legacy by celebrating creativity, diversity, imagination, peace, and just plain silliness. Walk with me a bit while I talk about Jim and his work--and leave your comments about what he means to you. Right this way. /1

This is one of my very favorite images, as it features characters performed by Jim Henson throughout his life holding photos (or, in the case of Ernie, drawings) of him at about the period he was performing the character. Among the Muppets shown: Cantus, Dr. Teeth, the Swedish Chef, Sam, Link Hogthrob, Ernie, Kermit (two iterations), and Guy Smiley.

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Omar Khan @omaromalleykhan.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

Some will say: ah yes, but ppl *feel* or think false, malign things abt migrants & we must appreciate/respond to those feelings as genuine Which concedes: -A pessimistic view that humans cant be swayed from lies, rationally or morally -That you are unwilling to argue for what you know to be true

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Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · 21/08/2025

But there are *other* problems that the government needs to consider. The first is that having a complete capital gains exemption on primary property and no such exemption on other investment assets encourages people to wildly over-invest in property relative to bonds, equities, other real assets.

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Rath Games @rathgames.bsky.social · 22/08/2025

I have tried lao gan ma for the first time and my eyes are opened. God put me on this earth to eat this. There is no other reason.

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David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 20/08/2025

So flip side is that 1%pt is a short term price shock that should drop out of data soon enough (he says optimistically)?

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Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 09/08/2025

BBC among media misreportimg/exaggerating scale of asylum protests Median protest is a few dozen, below 100. "Usually Several hundred at a time" is false. - should say *occasionally* < 1/10 protests have 200 people "Sometimes thousands" I dont think a single 2025 protest had > 2000 people yet

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David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 03/06/2025

I find these sneering “aren’t the public dumb” takes (referring to original post) mystifying. This is exactly what you’d expect if a large chunk of the public favour a defence spending increase funded by a progressive tax rise. Not obviously dumb/inconsistent/mad unless i am missing something.

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David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 03/06/2025

I find these sneering “aren’t the public dumb” takes mystifying. This is exactly what you’d expect if a large chunk of the public favour a defence spending increase funded by a progressive tax rise. Not obviously dumb/inconsistent/mad unless i am missing something.

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David Zentler-Munro @davidzentlermunro.bsky.social · 03/06/2025

Interesting article. Re the matching chart: I imagine this is sensitive to % of migrants in workforce since migrants tend to be poorly matched, intially at least before improving their match e.g. see Bell and Johnson - www.gov.uk/government/p...)

gov.uk

Immigration downgrading: new evidence from UK panel data (accessible)

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Sarah Owen MP @sarahowen.org.uk · 12/05/2025

I am proud of what immigrants like my mum and those across Luton North have given to our country. Many serve in our NHS, open biz, enrich culture/arts & much more. The best way to avoid becoming an ‘island of strangers’ is investing in communities to thrive - not pitting people against each other.

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Carl Gergs @cgergs.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

Hello #EconSky 👋 excited to share my JMP! ❓What are the impacts of offering student finance as a grant or a loan? In the paper, I... 🎓 Study individual university enrolment, subject choice & career motivations ❗️Explore aggregate outcomes e.g. access to university & the occupational structure 🧵👇

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