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Chris Herbert

@cpherbert.bsky.social
183 followers 199 following 113 posts

Dad runner snowboarder TBTL flat whites

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Reposted by Chris Herbert
Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 18h
Not that mind-boggling mate.
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Reposted by Chris Herbert
Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 28/09/2026
make no mistake: anyone telling you AI is “just like the dot com bubble” or “just like Amazon web services or uber” is beyond misinformed, verging into the realms of actually wanting to know less about the world. It means they have never actually looked at any of the numbers. Or they can’t count.
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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 28/09/2026
AI has lost the Mandate of Heaven I’m afraid. WSJ saying it’s a “when” the ai bubble bursts. SNL dabbing on their biggest names for being weird. FT says 50% of chips sold in 2026 and 2027 have nowhere to go. Hundreds of billions short on revenue for even 10% ROIC. A disaster.
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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 28/09/2026
Cannot insist you listen to this enough, this conversation condenses everything going on with AI and its wider economic effects tightly. One of the best in the show’s history.
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Kate Klonick @klonick.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
This is a very cute clip, but I love it for reasons that the episode doesn't really explore: *All networked technology comes down to chat* Talking to each other is either the foundation of all new networked technology or becomes inexorably tied up with it-- since the early days of the Internet 1/
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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 23/09/2026
Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro saying that the AI trade has been “dead money” for three months, and that it’s inflationary, meaning (as I’ve discussed multiple times) that the more debt they raise the more expensive debt becomes and the more they build data centers the more expensive it gets
Post
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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity
X.com
On the Al front, the trade has been dead money for more than 3 months now. The metrics I am following (token expenditures and GPU lease rates) are all flat to down. The price of memory (DRAM) seems to be the only thing that is still going up.
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Al Metrics
Daily Data. Source: FMRCo, Bloomberg
• GS Al basket
387
359
56%
283
249
200
175
150
•Silicon Data LLM token expenditure index (50d chg)
•Silicon Data H100 GPU rental index (50d chg)
•Silicon Data A100 GPU rental index (50d chg)
Aug-25 Oct-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Mar-26 May-26
Nov-24
Jan-25
Feb-25
Apr-25
Jun-25
Data as of 9/20/2026. Past performance is no guarantee of future results
Jul-26
70%|
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
0%
-10%
-20%
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Sep-26
A Fidelity
8:45 PM • 9/22/26 • 32K ViewsJurrien Timmer &
@TimmerFide... 2h S •
Yes, Al will change our lives (for the better l trust) and down the road it may well unleash a productivity miracle that raises the economy's non-inflationary speed limit enough to keep the world's mounting debt burden sustainable. But until then the buildout is inflationary with an unknown return for the companies who are investing trillions into compute. The demand fo capital (equity and debt) from corporates is rising at a $3.3 trillion clip.
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Crowding Out?
Monthly Data. Source: FMRCo, Bloomberg, Fed FoF Report.
non-financial corporate debt issuance (Sbi) equity share redemptions (buybacks + M&A)
Shading: US deb/GDP
inflation-adjusted
- total corporate net issuance (debt + equity)
housing bubble
+$7,924
bubble
Jun-20, +$6,597
+$3,462
dot.com bubble
Jun-00, +$3,233
+$3,999
Al capex
Jun-26, +$3,251
+$3,129
debt issuance + M&A
debt-equity arbitrage
+$123
-$197
debt-equity arbitrage
-$2.054
$2,175
-US Treasuries held by China
-$3.485
-US Treasuries held by Japan
—US Treasuries held by Fed's SOMA
—US Treasuries & agencies held by US banks
-$2,911
-$3,449
• $4,597
$3,602
$4,800
$2,400
$1,104
$1,200
$618
$600
1997
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2007 2009
2011
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$300
2025
2027
Data as of 9/20/2026. Past performance is no guarantee of future resuts
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•Fidelity
L71
50
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Reposted by Chris Herbert
Hakeem Jefferson @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Nikole Hannah-Jones w/ a sobering follow-up on her decision yrs ago to enroll her daughter in a poor, majority-Black public school rather than a wealthier, whiter private school. You leave heartbroken for the kids being failed by this grossly unequal system. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/20/m...
nytimes.com
In Fighting for Every Black Child, Did I Betray My Own? (Gift Article)
A decade ago, I made a decision about my daughter’s education that I hoped would challenge New York City’s separate and unequal school system. Now 16, she thinks I made the wrong choice.
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John Sipher @johnsipher.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
“A major theme of Bergen’s book is the repeated failure of American leaders to plan for “the day after” a military action is taken, but in Iran, he makes clear, Trump didn’t even plan for “the day of.” www.nytimes.com/2026/09/05/b...
nytimes.com
Why the War on Terror Is Still Haunting Us
In “All the Presidents’ Wars,” the journalist Peter Bergen traces the many missteps of U.S. military action in the Middle East.
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Marisa Kabas @marisakabas.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
New — I wrote about this weird thing where people within the Republican party keep being exposed as Nazis and the party then tries to claim each one is an aberration. The facts, as I lay out here, indicate otherwise:
thehandbasket.co
Republicans don’t have a Nazi problem—they are the Nazi problem
A spate of recent revelations have shown the ideologies and their adherents are one and the same.
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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 12/09/2026
mackenzie scott really seems like the only billionaire to figure out that you can be a literal hero to millions with a relative pittance
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Chris Herbert @cpherbert.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Nice to see my hometown, Rochester NY, getting some love; good ‘ol Eastman Kodak still chugging along. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/12/a...
nytimes.com
‘The Odyssey’ Was Shot on Real Film. This Is the Only Place Left Making It.
Christopher Nolan’s epic “The Odyssey” was shot on physical film, a resurgent medium that is manufactured entirely in one factory in western New York.
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Reposted by Chris Herbert
Katie Hinde @mammalssuck.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
"The whole “Oh no, our models went rogue” thing … When a bridge collapses, you don’t analyze whether the bridge was ethical or sentient or why it decided to collapse. You ask, who is the person who built this bridge to be so flimsy?" www.wired.com/story/one-of...
wired.com
One of AI’s Fiercest Critics Says All the Doom Talk Is ‘Meant to Distract Us’
Timnit Gebru argues that AI companies are stoking fears of extinction to avoid discussing actual harms, like autonomous weapons.
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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
The failure to understand the limits of Russian military power before the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine was until that time the greatest failure in modern strategic analysis. The failure to understand the limits of US military power since February 2026 might be worse.
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Mitchell Epner @mitchellepner.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
I recall this anecdote from Woodward’s book on the first days of the Clinton Administration after WJC was told many of his plans couldn’t be enacted because they’d “spook the bond market.” WJC: When I die, I want to comeback as bond market. Staffer: Why? WJC: Nobody fucks with the bond market.
nytimes.com
Bond Market Rebuffs Treasury’s $6 Billion Plan to Reduce Borrowing Costs (Gift Article)
The 10-year yield rose to its highest level in three years, suggesting investors were underwhelmed by the details of a move to buy back government bonds.
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David Simon @audacityofdespair.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
State of the republic: Our leader lies brazenly and ridiculously to exalt himself and steal valor as we remember one of our greatest tragedies. On the same day, the head of national museum resigns because this leader demands American history be rewritten so rank dishonesty can prevail over fact.
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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
The strategic position of the USA would’ve been immeasurably better if it had not started this ludicrous war with Iran and instead given the Patriot interceptors its wasted to Ukraine, to defend Ukr against Russia. What the USA has done, insanely, is strengthen China and Russia.
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Andrew Przybylski @shuhbillskee.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
In case you missed it earlier this summer... A great piece by @masnick.com covering @candiceodgers.bsky.social amazing TED Talk. www.techdirt.com/2026/07/10/a...
techdirt.com
Adults Broke The Internet, And They’re Trying To Fix It By Kicking Kids Off
It’s no secret that I’m a fan of developmental psychologist Candice Odgers. I’ve mentioned her and her work on the site many times, and she was a guest on my podcast as well. She …
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Chris Herbert @cpherbert.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
In case you ever think that Cody’s last post/essay was his best one yet, think again, the bits keep coming!
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Asha Rangappa @asharangappa.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Be honest. If any Democratic president did this, what would be happening now
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
A splendid burst of hopium from Liam - supported by a chorus line of NZ's groupthink reckonomists. I have wavered on how 2026/27 will play out, but I increasingly think they're misreading the data; their vibes-based, fantasy land models simply don't work. Let's have a look... [🧵 1/n]
Economists say the recovery has resumed... do you believe them? – Liam Dann
Liam Dann
Opinion by
Liam Dann
Business Editor at Large·NZ Herald·
6 Sep, 2026 05:00 AM
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Chris Herbert @cpherbert.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Spent 10+ years living right next Brick Lane so extremely disappointing to see this happening.
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Reposted by Chris Herbert
Evan Greer @evangreer.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Age verification makes everyone less safe. Age verification makes everyone less safe. Age verification makes everyone less safe. Age verification makes everyone less safe. Age verification makes everyone less safe. Age verification makes everyone less safe.
techdirt.com
Hackers Had A Live Feed Of Every ID This Verification Company Scanned. For Over A Year.
From the very beginning of this recent obsession with identifying everyone online (yes, they like to call it "age" verification, but it always ends up as identity verification), we've been pointing out that it was a huge privacy nightmare waiting to happen. Or maybe it wasn't waiting. Maybe it was already happening. This week a...
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Reposted by Chris Herbert
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Reminder that we are in the longest slump in living memory and RBNZ have decided that the slump needs to be longer to 'tame inflation'. Medieval monetarism. @kentduston.bsky.social
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
I knew this would be bad, but it's awful. Malpractice even. I'll limit my criticism to 9 posts. The Herald have added together the gross debt of NZ public & private sectors and called this debt 'we collectively owe the world'. Pure unadulterated nonsense. Literally untrue. [🧵1/n]
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Chris Herbert @cpherbert.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Grew up In Rochester and never knew what the word Ontario means or the origins of the word. Thanks for this little nugget!
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On the Media @onthemedia.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
“When a third of the stock market is vaporized and takes the savings of everyday people with it, when the S&P 500 loses a third of its value overnight, it's going to make 2008 look like a walk in the park,” @doctorow.pluralistic.net said.
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Evan Greer @evangreer.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
I'm someone who wants to see Meta regulated out of existence. And the Meta settlement is bad. Very bad. www.techdirt.com/2026/08/26/m...
techdirt.com
Meta Just Paid Nearly $17 Billion To Make Sure It Gets To Write The Kid Safety Rules For Every Other Social Media Platform
By now you've almost certainly heard the news that Meta has settled with 52 state and local Attorneys General who had sued the company in some form or another over child safety on Meta's platforms. The headlines are all covering the basics: the years-long case these states filed against Meta ends, and Meta pays somewhere...
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Anil Dash @anildash.com · 26/08/2026
Meta is a creep who will _never_ take no for an answer, and never stop trying to ignore their lack of consent. Every media & regulatory organization in the world seems determined to ignore this reality; I genuinely don't understand why. Today's settlement is so that Meta can keep violating consent.
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The New York Times @nytimes.com · 26/08/2026
In @nytopinion Dolly Parton “used humor and charm to control every interview. If a male talk-show host made a joke about her figure, she’d make an even better joke about it,” Jad Abumrad writes in a guest essay. “She never allowed herself to be a part of a story of which she was not the author.”
nyti.ms
Opinion | It Was Always Dolly Parton’s Show
Trailing Dolly Parton around the world, I witnessed so many small moments in which she’d gracefully own her power without the slightest hint of fight.
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derek guy @dieworkwear.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
I appreciate that Dolly Parton refused to participate in "dress respectability" and, by her own account, modeled her aesthetic after a town "tramp," who she thought was beautiful. She separated aesthetics from character and understood "classiness" to be about how you treat people, not how you dress.
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Rebecca Solnit @rebeccasolnit.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
....
washingtonpost.com
Dolly Parton invested Whitney Houston’s ‘I Will Always Love You’ cover royalties in Black community
Houston's cover, recorded for "The Bodyguard" in 1992, became a global sensation 18 years after Parton penned the song.
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Chris Herbert @cpherbert.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Soon after son was born, found out about Imagination Library and I was both surprised and then deeply impressed that Dolly Parton was behind it. Yes, she was amazing artist but don’t forget about her philanthropy. Also supported mRNA research too. Check out Dolly Parton’s America podcast, inspiring
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Karen Attiah @karenattiah.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
BREAKING: After the Washington Post fired me last year for speaking the truth in the wake of the Charlie Kirk killing, I fought back. And I'm happy to announce: I won my case against the Washington Post. They have been ordered to reinstate me immediately. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/24/b...
nytimes.com
Washington Post Ordered to Rehire Fired Columnist Karen Attiah
An arbitrator ordered the newspaper to reinstate Karen Attiah, who was fired after posting about “white men who espouse hatred and violence” following Charlie Kirk’s killing.
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Chris Herbert @cpherbert.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
This is how you do it! There are so many great quotes in here but this one is right up there: “He is now tariffing his own trophy. The Art of the Deal has become the art of setting fire to your own paperwork, pissing on the ashes, and charging the neighbours for the smoke.”
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The Saturday Paper @thesaturdaypaper.com.au · 22/08/2026
“The so-called hyperscalers will never be profitable. They’re the money-losing-est centre in the history of the world. No one has ever lost money like AI.” | Cory Doctorow trib.al/ycuvLzS
trib.al
Author Cory Doctorow on the disenshittification nation
Cory Doctorow, in Australia to promote his new book, was among the first tech philosophers to name the rot eating the internet. He has not lost hope for a way out.
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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 22/08/2026
the average tech exec and venture capitalist and honestly an alarming amount of bay area software engineers have close to zero interaction or connection with regular people, and the richer they are, the more isolated they've become. They have built rationalizations for everything.
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Not a real jobs recovery at all.
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Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 21/08/2026
See also crypto obv
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Scott Horton @robertscotthorton.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
David Rohde says that the major logistics problems for the Navy largely come from the fact that the Navy's chief resupply station in the Gulf of Oman was completely destroyed in an Iranian attack, and Hegseth decided to keep it secret, from the public, Congress and the White House.
ms.now
USS Lincoln wasn't resupplied because Hegseth 'hid' that Iran destroyed main U.S. base: Rohde
President Trump continues to say that Iran wants to make a deal to end the war and that the U.S. has control over the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the president downplayed concerns about the condition...
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Robert Reich @rbreich.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Casual reminder that the myth of “pulling yourself up by your bootstraps” is a cruel hoax designed to convince poor people from all walks of life that the injustices they face are a result of their own actions, rather than an oppressive system rigged against them.
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Robert Reich @rbreich.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Can you guess how much the minimum wage would be today if it kept up with worker productivity over the years?
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NY Times Pitchbot @nytpitchbot.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Whether it’s Pete Hegseth overseeing missile depletion, food shortages, and sailor suicide attempts or Lloyd Austin being Black, both secretaries of defense have angered portions of the electorate.
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Max Moran @maxmoranhi.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
"I've never seen a feature for a word processor that I said 'That's so cool we should bet the world's economy on it, and by the way, we should probably also put all the writers in a woodchipper now that it exists.'" - @doctorow.pluralistic.net
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By Cory Doctorow (GPG 0xBF3D9110957E5F4C) @doctorow.pluralistic.net · 11/08/2026
Fundamentally, Piketty argues that the cheapest way to stop people from building a guillotine on your lawn is to build hospitals and schools; this is cheaper than paying for guards and prisons to lock up would-be guillotine builders. 43/
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Ron Filipkowski @ronfilipkowski.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
If you’re hiding in a catering truck when you control the most powerful military in the world, you aren’t winning.
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Chris Herbert @cpherbert.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Yes Bernard, great post. This nails the root cause: “Taking NZ forward actually means contracting the economy by squeezing down the size of Government without households or businesses having the balance sheet strength or confidence or borrowing permissions to step forward to fill the gap.”
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Hillary Rodham Clinton @hillaryclinton.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
When it comes to your children’s health, listen to doctors. Not a president who once told Americans to inject bleach. The American Academy of Pediatrics’ immunization recommendations have not changed.
Children’s immunization schedule
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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
A quick lesson on winning and losing a war. If you start a war of choice, blow through masses of your weapons stocks so that you cannot escalate effectively, and find the country you attacked dictating negotiating terms while in a stronger strategic position. You lost.
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Peter Butler @peter-butler.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
This is the most important thing Mamdani is doing in NYC right now Getting it right could have dramatic results for the entire country Imagine a goverment with a functional online presence built to serve citizens, not industry. IRS DirectFile was a great start, but small peanuts
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Chris Herbert @cpherbert.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
@chrislhayes.bsky.social I’m a #TBTL living here in Auckland NZ and enjoyed hearing you on RNZ today with Jesse Mulligan :) Thanks for the insights and been triangulating my latest AI outlook based on you, @doctorow.pluralistic.net , and @edzitron.com.
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