Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 3hNothing like adding to business costs in a low competition, slumpy economy to, errrm, prevent businesses putting prices up. Yes, it's as stupid as it sounds. Image 2 shows that the average weighted interest rate on mortgages is about to push upwards. Madness. 3203
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 23h'Our economy is growing faster than X and Y blah blah - pick a data point and an X and a Y. 1276
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 06/10/2026This is a brilliant report... Basic gist is 'almost all the real data is crap, but businesses think things are going to get better, so... Good Times!' Honestly, I think might go mad. Link in the alt text. 65013
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 05/10/2026I tell you what makes forecasting difficult... ignoring the leading indicators that matter, believing the often 100% wrong models in economic textbooks, relying on vibe surveys, and having blind faith in the business cycle (it's gone down so it will come up) 47019
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 05/10/2026While the commentariat talk up the nascent recovery (just one more year everyone!), the next slump is already upon us. Total new lending is a decent leading indicator - clear signs of stalling. [🧵1/n] 15023
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Damien Grant ranting about debt (again) today. The only way to reduce Govt debt in nominal terms is for Govt to take more $ off the private sector than they give them when they spend. Historically, that's only been possible during housing booms (thanks to banks net injecting billions of mortgage $). 1275
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 03/10/2026Govt announcing investment in roads to please the Auckland boomers. People asking where the 'money is coming from'. Votes in Parliament create the dollars folks! The year to June 2027 is supposed to be a bumper year for capital investment - if govt can get that much $ into the ecomomy (I doubt it). 2181
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 03/10/2026There are those among us who believe that the answer to all manner of challenges is investing more in kiwisaver, pension funds, savings etc. Kiwi households are nearly top of the world at the wealth accumulation thing folks - not you? Ah, maybe you can spot the real issue then?!? [1/3] 35718
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 03/10/2026Global food prices are picking up - 6% year-on-year doesn't look like much, but it might be enough to push NZ food prices up to around 5% in 6 - 9 months time (typical lag). That would add a full percentage point to CPI. 4146
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 03/10/2026The Post is running one of those 'ignore the austerity hyperbole' stories. A few things to note... 1. The article uses unadjusted figures throughout. If you adjust the $ for inflation and population, Govt operating expenditure in 2026/27 is below 2023/24 levels (by $144 per capita), and.... [🧵 1/n] 24826
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Apparently good economic management involves increasing unemployment until one in six young people are out of work, poor, and increasingly disenfranchised. Is this 'building the future'? Would 'fixing the basics' not involve fixing this disaster? 1011738
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 02/10/2026It's uncomplicated Nicola. Govt vote on creating a $100bn fund. They start to spend that fund - creating liabilities (debt) in the banking system. Govt pay interest on that. The more money Govt spend, the more money we have to pay taxes. The challenge is getting the money back, not where you find it 2348
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Always worth a reminder of what investing in the country looks like. 55323
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 30/09/2026The fall back is starting to look 'baked in'. 4252
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 30/09/2026'Piggy bank is empty' nonsense provides cover for the political class. Once the lie is exposed, they have to answer questions like 'If we have 100,000s of people wanting work, and plenty of raw materials, why is our infrastructure falling to bits? Sounds like mismanagement, ay? (It is!) 411734
Reposted by Musical ChairsAndrew Dickson @andrewdickson13.bsky.social · 30/09/2026The problem is that NZ issues NZ dollars. That doesn’t abolish scarcity. Nurses, electricity, houses, labour and productive capacity are all genuinely finite. But “the money” is not scarce in the same way. Which makes the household metaphor rather important politically. 3446
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Apparently we are well on the way to the first recovery ever to happen while households deposits are falling in real terms. The reckonomists think we are at the upturn in the cycle - what if we're still on the way down?!? 3368
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Wonder if anyone willask whether govt has simply given up on people who can't find work in this low demand, sale at briscoes, profits above wages economy? Yesterday's benefit forecasts suggest we will miss the govt's target by over 60,000 people! 96122
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 28/09/2026In the last five years we have seen NZ bank account balances and private sector govt bond savings grow by $200bn. That's $109 million per day ffs. Where did it come from? Who are the prolific wealth creators that walk among us? 1242
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Herald having cookie-cutter (wrong) reckonomics reckons on US interest rate increase. It's true that other central banks tend to follow the Fed. What people don't realise is that when US Fed increases interest rates *existing* US mortgages are unaffected (fixed at low rates for 30 years). [🧵 1/n] 1193
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 27/09/2026Looks like we will see a positive Govt *operating balance* for the year ending June 2026. I suspected as much based on May's numbers, but Nicola's teaser re: PREFU convinced me. You will hear crowing such as 'we're no longer borrowing to keep the lights on'. Good times ahead? [1/2] 74213
Reposted by Musical ChairsAaron Hawkins @ahawkins.bsky.social · 26/09/2026Steve continues to be one of the most underrated people sitting in our Parliament 48215
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 26/09/2026Ah, Lucks-in crowing about GDP growth over on the hell site. Let's unpick his claims a bit. First, the carefully selected group of comparators have seen GDP growth below NZ during the year to June 2026 (more on that later), but they have left us in their dust for the last 3 years. [🧵 1/n] 1227
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Quick offcut. We have lots of dwellings being consented at the moment (yay) but, unusually, it's not translating into increased investment in housing. It looks a bit like late-2010 when RBNZ upped the OCR during a slump (before retreating quickly). Note how much *instability* monetary policy causes! 2255
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Imagine a country with the technology of 2026 and the full employment policies of the mid-20th century. 23314
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 25/09/2026The weekly jobs annual growth data has reached my arrows now. So, which path are we heading down - green or red? Or, maybe the green path is too pessimistic? Reply with your reckons if you want a prediction on the record. [🧵 1/4] 4143
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 24/09/2026You see what's going on here, right? The economy is on its ass because neoliberal, trust-da-market policies don't work. So, while we crawl off the bottom, we get treated to endless 'might it be this other thing' stories. Ghouls. 49827
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Useful chart, you'll find NZ a few places below Japan. Next time you hear the '$10bn a year on debt servicing costs' 😱 😱 😱 , remember that the number being quoted is gross, like in accounting terms. My main beef with govt interest payments is that they are a transfer of govt $ money to rich people. 25316
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Regular reminder that the 'shrink the state' ghouls (that get it) have a simple goal - to ensure that the few benefit most from the resources that belong to the many. The TPU run 'psy-ops'; plain and simple. They use lies and manipulation to turn the people against public and shared ownership. 113142
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 22/09/2026You might have seen articles today about the 'employment confidence gaining ground' (Herald) or 'employment confidence rises from June low' (RNZ). Here's the actual report. It is littered with typical westpac hopium, but the data doesn't lie. Q3 was second lowest confidence ever (in over 20 years). 46733
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 21/09/2026Read a piece in the Herald earlier full of clueless arse about face reckons... bond markets be 'demanding higher rates'... 'government is having to compete harder for capital'. Literal horseshit. Bond markets are predicting the future decisions of central banks. That's basically it. Thanks David! 0357
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 20/09/2026Torrent of crap coming out of Jordan's mouth this morning on Q&A. I should not have started fact-checking, but here we go. Claim 1: The old '2nd largest fiscal response'. Jordan is referring to an IMF report, which was adopted conveniently as gospel by NZ Treasury. Friends, it was bad. [🧵 1/n] 512960
Reposted by Musical ChairsMusical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 19/09/2026Great question on one of my favourite topics. Can Govt deficit spend infinitely - won't the market refuse to buy Bonds ('Liz Truss moment') or demand more interest (like US Treasury market now)? Let's deal with the mechanics of deficit spending first... [🧵 1/n] 1112
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 19/09/2026Pulling my hair out at the RNZ podcast on the rise of the far right in Europe - diagnostic is wrong because the underlying model is wrong. A quick reminder of how dangerous reckonomics is (with a long detour to explain). First up, let's consider a few of the most ridiculous things we're told [🧵1/n] 15321
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 19/09/2026Auckland is a big service economy; it's stalled because there is not enough money flowing through it. There are tens of thousands of people ready to work, but not enough work for them. Low demand = low consumption = more stagnation. Luxon can't see it because he believes in magic markets. [🧵 1/n] 911535
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 18/09/2026Here come those airfares... Quick increase mortgage costs! More people on the dole! 1230
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 18/09/2026Quick time poor GDP update. Here's an example of how selective our 'recovery' is - the profits are back, but wages are not. Couple of other quick illustrations... [1/3] 12711
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 16/09/2026The data on our position with the rest of the world is out. Always a fave. First up, we've only thrown $11.5bn offshore (net) in the last 12 months - could be worse. The country is in a perma-slump, so we're buying less. Spot the global reinsurance money arriving in 2011 btw. Lots more... [🧵 1/n] 2293
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Can you see the green shoots yet? August figures for card spending a lot lower than expected. I have a theory for what's going on here. I'll break it down. [🧵 1/n] 36122
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 14/09/2026I cannot emphasise enough how bad Luxon's economic speech was today - a veritable torrent of crap. Seriously. If this is what Treasury are giving him to say they should be thoroughly ashamed of themselves. I'll try and keep my critique to six points.... [🧵 1/n] www.1news.co.nz/2026/09/14/w...1news.co.nzFull video: PM Luxon holds post-Cabinet media briefingThis is the second to last week that Parliament is sitting before it rises for the election. 518178
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 13/09/2026House prices in the news today. Three quick things... 1. If you adjust house prices for average wages you get a plot that tracks employment rate. This tells you that house prices tend to rise to as much as people can afford to pay (i.e. it takes two wage slaves). [🧵 1/3] 2222
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 13/09/2026Hmm... building an ever larger treasure trove of shares, equity, bonds, etc. Is 'forced investment / saving' the answer to our problems? Let's have a look. First, the whole 'investing in NZ' thing is rather misleading - the big gains come from investing in *offshore* shares. [🧵 1/n] 14212
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 12/09/2026Getting set-up to have reckons on GDP data later this week. Here's one of the decompositions of the data - looking at the contribution each component of GDP(E) makes to the overall change. 1131
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 12/09/2026It's GDP week so I thought I'd post this old favourite. The pink line is official NZ GDP per capita growth - wild ride through cvid. Issue here is that any Govt spending classed as a 'subsidy' is deducted from GDP. If you consider subsidies to be Govt spending, you get the blue line. [1/2] 2238
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 12/09/2026What happened to the neutral public service? Three BIG things wrong with this graph. 1. The barely visible grey line that hits the target is referenced as 'updated to take account of Budget 2025 forecast'. The green line (added by me) is the Budget 2025 forecast 🤔. Talk about double-speak! [🧵 1/3] 2218
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 11/09/2026The first story is why the ghouls are constantly lobbying for self-funded pensions (see second story), which are basically a mechanism for shoving cash into the rentier financial sector. 2238
Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 11/09/2026Looks like the ghouls are going to be wailing about spiralling Govt borrowing costs in the next few days. Here's the actual facts... Govt issues debt at a fixed rate for term. Current weighted average Govt debt cost is about 3%. Yes, that's less than inflation. 2298