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Musical Chairs

@musicalchairs.bsky.social
2.9K followers 82 following 4.5K posts

Ugly graphs, insights and outbursts. NZ.

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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 3h
Nothing like adding to business costs in a low competition, slumpy economy to, errrm, prevent businesses putting prices up. Yes, it's as stupid as it sounds. Image 2 shows that the average weighted interest rate on mortgages is about to push upwards. Madness.
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 23h
'Our economy is growing faster than X and Y blah blah - pick a data point and an X and a Y.
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
This is a brilliant report... Basic gist is 'almost all the real data is crap, but businesses think things are going to get better, so... Good Times!' Honestly, I think might go mad. Link in the alt text.
https://www.nzier.org.nz/news/tag/quarterly-survey-of-business-opinion
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
I tell you what makes forecasting difficult... ignoring the leading indicators that matter, believing the often 100% wrong models in economic textbooks, relying on vibe surveys, and having blind faith in the business cycle (it's gone down so it will come up)
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/1749543/what-good-are-economic-forecasts-in-an-uncertain-world
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
While the commentariat talk up the nascent recovery (just one more year everyone!), the next slump is already upon us. Total new lending is a decent leading indicator - clear signs of stalling. [🧵1/n]
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Damien Grant ranting about debt (again) today. The only way to reduce Govt debt in nominal terms is for Govt to take more $ off the private sector than they give them when they spend. Historically, that's only been possible during housing booms (thanks to banks net injecting billions of mortgage $).
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Govt announcing investment in roads to please the Auckland boomers. People asking where the 'money is coming from'. Votes in Parliament create the dollars folks! The year to June 2027 is supposed to be a bumper year for capital investment - if govt can get that much $ into the ecomomy (I doubt it).
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
There are those among us who believe that the answer to all manner of challenges is investing more in kiwisaver, pension funds, savings etc. Kiwi households are nearly top of the world at the wealth accumulation thing folks - not you? Ah, maybe you can spot the real issue then?!? [1/3]
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Global food prices are picking up - 6% year-on-year doesn't look like much, but it might be enough to push NZ food prices up to around 5% in 6 - 9 months time (typical lag). That would add a full percentage point to CPI.
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
The Post is running one of those 'ignore the austerity hyperbole' stories. A few things to note... 1. The article uses unadjusted figures throughout. If you adjust the $ for inflation and population, Govt operating expenditure in 2026/27 is below 2023/24 levels (by $144 per capita), and.... [🧵 1/n]
https://www.thepost.co.nz/politics/361090646/ignore-hyperbole-has-not-been-austerity-government
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Apparently good economic management involves increasing unemployment until one in six young people are out of work, poor, and increasingly disenfranchised. Is this 'building the future'? Would 'fixing the basics' not involve fixing this disaster?
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
It's uncomplicated Nicola. Govt vote on creating a $100bn fund. They start to spend that fund - creating liabilities (debt) in the banking system. Govt pay interest on that. The more money Govt spend, the more money we have to pay taxes. The challenge is getting the money back, not where you find it
https://www.thepost.co.nz/politics/361091784/nicola-willis-says-100b-nz-first-policy-not-well-formed-enough-her-have-opinion-it
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Always worth a reminder of what investing in the country looks like.
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The fall back is starting to look 'baked in'.
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
'Piggy bank is empty' nonsense provides cover for the political class. Once the lie is exposed, they have to answer questions like 'If we have 100,000s of people wanting work, and plenty of raw materials, why is our infrastructure falling to bits? Sounds like mismanagement, ay? (It is!)
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Andrew Dickson @andrewdickson13.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The problem is that NZ issues NZ dollars. That doesn’t abolish scarcity. Nurses, electricity, houses, labour and productive capacity are all genuinely finite. But “the money” is not scarce in the same way. Which makes the household metaphor rather important politically.
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Apparently we are well on the way to the first recovery ever to happen while households deposits are falling in real terms. The reckonomists think we are at the upturn in the cycle - what if we're still on the way down?!?
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Wonder if anyone willask whether govt has simply given up on people who can't find work in this low demand, sale at briscoes, profits above wages economy? Yesterday's benefit forecasts suggest we will miss the govt's target by over 60,000 people!
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
In the last five years we have seen NZ bank account balances and private sector govt bond savings grow by $200bn. That's $109 million per day ffs. Where did it come from? Who are the prolific wealth creators that walk among us?
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Herald having cookie-cutter (wrong) reckonomics reckons on US interest rate increase. It's true that other central banks tend to follow the Fed. What people don't realise is that when US Fed increases interest rates *existing* US mortgages are unaffected (fixed at low rates for 30 years). [🧵 1/n]
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/fed-hiking-cycle-begins-what-the-latest-rate-rise-means-for-markets/premium/Z6SOEUXKLJBVFDNBV244M5FRDU/

The other exception was the most recent hiking cycle, which began in 2022 after inflation surged to a 40-year high in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.
That was a tough year for US shares, with the S&P 500 falling 25% from its January peak to its October low.
Rate hikes weren’t the only reason for that, but they contributed.
The Fed increased interest rates from 0.25% to 5.50% in less than 18 months, making this one of the most aggressive hiking cycles in decades.
The US economy proved remarkably resilient through that period, helping set the scene for the strong market rebound that followed.
More than four years later there still hasn’t been a recession.
Investor sentiment also received an unexpected boost late in 2022 with the launch of ChatGPT and the artificial intelligence boom that followed.
Markets can still perform well in the face of rate hikes, especially in the early stages of a tightening cycle.
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Looks like we will see a positive Govt *operating balance* for the year ending June 2026. I suspected as much based on May's numbers, but Nicola's teaser re: PREFU convinced me. You will hear crowing such as 'we're no longer borrowing to keep the lights on'. Good times ahead? [1/2]
Willis hints at 'good news' in pre-election fiscal update
Finance Minister and National finance spokesperson Nicola Willis has appeared to hint at good news in Tuesday's Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update.

"I won't say too much today about it. I want there to be some surprise, but let's put it this way - you'll like what you see," Willis told party faithful in Auckland.
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Aaron Hawkins @ahawkins.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Steve continues to be one of the most underrated people sitting in our Parliament
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Ah, Lucks-in crowing about GDP growth over on the hell site. Let's unpick his claims a bit. First, the carefully selected group of comparators have seen GDP growth below NZ during the year to June 2026 (more on that later), but they have left us in their dust for the last 3 years. [🧵 1/n]
New Zealand’s economy has grown more in the past year than the UK, Canada, the US, the EU, Australia and Japan.

Luxon tweet:

National's economic plan is working. We just have to stick to it.

A stronger economy means more jobs, rising wages, no new taxes and the confidence that if you work hard you can get ahead.
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Quick offcut. We have lots of dwellings being consented at the moment (yay) but, unusually, it's not translating into increased investment in housing. It looks a bit like late-2010 when RBNZ upped the OCR during a slump (before retreating quickly). Note how much *instability* monetary policy causes!
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Imagine a country with the technology of 2026 and the full employment policies of the mid-20th century.
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The weekly jobs annual growth data has reached my arrows now. So, which path are we heading down - green or red? Or, maybe the green path is too pessimistic? Reply with your reckons if you want a prediction on the record. [🧵 1/4]
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
You see what's going on here, right? The economy is on its ass because neoliberal, trust-da-market policies don't work. So, while we crawl off the bottom, we get treated to endless 'might it be this other thing' stories. Ghouls.
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Useful chart, you'll find NZ a few places below Japan. Next time you hear the '$10bn a year on debt servicing costs' 😱 😱 😱 , remember that the number being quoted is gross, like in accounting terms. My main beef with govt interest payments is that they are a transfer of govt $ money to rich people.
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Regular reminder that the 'shrink the state' ghouls (that get it) have a simple goal - to ensure that the few benefit most from the resources that belong to the many. The TPU run 'psy-ops'; plain and simple. They use lies and manipulation to turn the people against public and shared ownership.
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
You might have seen articles today about the 'employment confidence gaining ground' (Herald) or 'employment confidence rises from June low' (RNZ). Here's the actual report. It is littered with typical westpac hopium, but the data doesn't lie. Q3 was second lowest confidence ever (in over 20 years).
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Read a piece in the Herald earlier full of clueless arse about face reckons... bond markets be 'demanding higher rates'... 'government is having to compete harder for capital'. Literal horseshit. Bond markets are predicting the future decisions of central banks. That's basically it. Thanks David!
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
What if indeed.
Business
Economy
Simon Bridges says NZ recovery is no longer coming ‒ what if he’s right?
Tom Pullar-Strecker
Tom Pullar-Strecker
|
The Post
September 21, 2026 • 4:00am
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Torrent of crap coming out of Jordan's mouth this morning on Q&A. I should not have started fact-checking, but here we go. Claim 1: The old '2nd largest fiscal response'. Jordan is referring to an IMF report, which was adopted conveniently as gospel by NZ Treasury. Friends, it was bad. [🧵 1/n]
'We had the second largest response to Covid in terms of a proportion of our economy... increased Government spending.'
Jordan Williams Q&A 20 Sep 26
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Great question on one of my favourite topics. Can Govt deficit spend infinitely - won't the market refuse to buy Bonds ('Liz Truss moment') or demand more interest (like US Treasury market now)? Let's deal with the mechanics of deficit spending first... [🧵 1/n]
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Pulling my hair out at the RNZ podcast on the rise of the far right in Europe - diagnostic is wrong because the underlying model is wrong. A quick reminder of how dangerous reckonomics is (with a long detour to explain). First up, let's consider a few of the most ridiculous things we're told [🧵1/n]
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/1463091/europe-s-far-right-surge-poses-risks-for-small-nations
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Auckland is a big service economy; it's stalled because there is not enough money flowing through it. There are tens of thousands of people ready to work, but not enough work for them. Low demand = low consumption = more stagnation. Luxon can't see it because he believes in magic markets. [🧵 1/n]
https://www.thepost.co.nz/nz-news/361083029/luxon-auckland-stop-talking-and-get-some-stuff-done
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Here come those airfares... Quick increase mortgage costs! More people on the dole!
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Quick time poor GDP update. Here's an example of how selective our 'recovery' is - the profits are back, but wages are not. Couple of other quick illustrations... [1/3]
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
The data on our position with the rest of the world is out. Always a fave. First up, we've only thrown $11.5bn offshore (net) in the last 12 months - could be worse. The country is in a perma-slump, so we're buying less. Spot the global reinsurance money arriving in 2011 btw. Lots more... [🧵 1/n]
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Can you see the green shoots yet? August figures for card spending a lot lower than expected. I have a theory for what's going on here. I'll break it down. [🧵 1/n]
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
I cannot emphasise enough how bad Luxon's economic speech was today - a veritable torrent of crap. Seriously. If this is what Treasury are giving him to say they should be thoroughly ashamed of themselves. I'll try and keep my critique to six points.... [🧵 1/n] www.1news.co.nz/2026/09/14/w...
1news.co.nz
Full video: PM Luxon holds post-Cabinet media briefing
This is the second to last week that Parliament is sitting before it rises for the election.
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
House prices in the news today. Three quick things... 1. If you adjust house prices for average wages you get a plot that tracks employment rate. This tells you that house prices tend to rise to as much as people can afford to pay (i.e. it takes two wage slaves). [🧵 1/3]
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Hmm... building an ever larger treasure trove of shares, equity, bonds, etc. Is 'forced investment / saving' the answer to our problems? Let's have a look. First, the whole 'investing in NZ' thing is rather misleading - the big gains come from investing in *offshore* shares. [🧵 1/n]
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Getting set-up to have reckons on GDP data later this week. Here's one of the decompositions of the data - looking at the contribution each component of GDP(E) makes to the overall change.
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Policy Choice.
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Ouch.
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
It's GDP week so I thought I'd post this old favourite. The pink line is official NZ GDP per capita growth - wild ride through cvid. Issue here is that any Govt spending classed as a 'subsidy' is deducted from GDP. If you consider subsidies to be Govt spending, you get the blue line. [1/2]
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
What happened to the neutral public service? Three BIG things wrong with this graph. 1. The barely visible grey line that hits the target is referenced as 'updated to take account of Budget 2025 forecast'. The green line (added by me) is the Budget 2025 forecast 🤔. Talk about double-speak! [🧵 1/3]
https://www.dpmc.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2026-09/gt-factsheet-target-5-jun26.pdf
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
The first story is why the ghouls are constantly lobbying for self-funded pensions (see second story), which are basically a mechanism for shoving cash into the rentier financial sector.
Even a small rise in annual KiwiSaver fees will see them top $1 billion next year

12th Sep 26, 9:02am by Gareth Vaughan Interest.co.nzWarning that NZ Super bill could swallow 30% of tax take
Luke Malpass
Luke Malpass
|
The Post
September 12, 2026 • 4:00am
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Looks like the ghouls are going to be wailing about spiralling Govt borrowing costs in the next few days. Here's the actual facts... Govt issues debt at a fixed rate for term. Current weighted average Govt debt cost is about 3%. Yes, that's less than inflation.
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