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Bernard Hickey

@bernardchickey.bsky.social
5.4K followers 4.4K following 20K posts

Podcaster and newsletter writer about housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa. Free and paid versions here: open.substack.com/pub/thekaka?r=akd…

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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 16h
The devil (in the detail) at the crossroads.
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 16h
It's uncomplicated Nicola. Govt vote on creating a $100bn fund. They start to spend that fund - creating liabilities (debt) in the banking system. Govt pay interest on that. The more money Govt spend, the more money we have to pay taxes. The challenge is getting the money back, not where you find it
https://www.thepost.co.nz/politics/361091784/nicola-willis-says-100b-nz-first-policy-not-well-formed-enough-her-have-opinion-it
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 16h
Worth pointing this article to the RBNZ Governor.
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 17h
Eek.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Crude down on the week but diesel ripping back to fresh all-time highs. Now at ~$228/bbl in New York Harbor, outstripping the prior all-time set two weeks ago.
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Megan Herbert @meganjherbert.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
The inflation problem. My cartoon in today's @theageaustralia.bsky.social and @sydmorningherald.bsky.social
A political cartoon by Megan Herbert showing a single mother, recently made homeless after defaulting on her mortgage repayments (as evidenced by visible paperwork), setting up a new home in a tent with her two young children. Surrounded by their essentials stored in storage and plastic bags, the baby crawls on the grass, his older brother heats some food over a camp stove, and his exhausted-looking mother blows up an air mattress. Watching her, the boy says, "Is this what they means when they say 'inflation is the problem,' Mum?"
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Not that mind-boggling mate.
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
And this is before the dividends.
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
I'm looking forward to moderating this event next week. events.humanitix.com/the-next-gen...
events.humanitix.com
Tomorrow Talks: Business Talks
Come curious. Come ready to talk. Come help shape Tomorrow Together.
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Matt Golding @goldingcartoons.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
If Trump is bent on renaming a possibly liberated Hormuz Strait after himself, it will always be known as Trump’s Truth Bypass. Jenifer Nicholls, Windsor @theageaustralia.bsky.social letters
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
I rolled on the floor and laughed out loud.
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Nailed it.
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
5.34 degrees above normal. Ouch.
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
'Piggy bank is empty' nonsense provides cover for the political class. Once the lie is exposed, they have to answer questions like 'If we have 100,000s of people wanting work, and plenty of raw materials, why is our infrastructure falling to bits? Sounds like mismanagement, ay? (It is!)
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The housing credit impulse has turned. So the jobs growth turn back is not far away. Excellent analysis here from @musicalchairs.bsky.social
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
If only we could all live in data centres. Warm and dry, I suppose. And good broadband and reliable electricity.
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Zut Alors indeed
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
More good news.
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Full Early Bird for paying subs: Hiring craters in late Sept & inflation signs are soft, but RBNZ is still set to hike again on Oct 28. The Post-$ gets a Health NZ report showing workforce shortages, infrastructure delays & waitlists are harming patients. #nzpol thekaka.substack.com/p/early-bird...
thekaka.substack.com
Early Bird: Business hiring craters in late Sept
ANZ survey finds hiring slumped as fuel shock hit, but inflation views still soft; Yet RBNZ still expected to hike again on October 28; Auckland house price average under $1m for first time since 2020
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Great news.
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Russel Norman @russelnorman.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade thinks the reversal of the oil and gas exploration ban breached the EU Free Trade Agreement. How do we know? Because they accidentally leaked their own legal opinion in Sep 2024. newsroom.co.nz/2024/10/01/g... www.documentcloud.org/documents/25...
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Science Media Centre NZ @smcnz.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Antarctica’s unexplored threat – Expert Reaction
sciencemediacentre.co.nz
Antarctica's unexplored threat - Expert Reaction
A region of Antarctica with enough ice to raise sea levels by up to four metres is the least explored section of the continent, according to a research team including an NZ scientist. The Wilkes…
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Did you know... thekaka.substack.com/p/no-govt-ha...
thekaka.substack.com
No Govt has ever been re-elected in NZ with falling real house prices & real wages. Treasury says they are now.
Treasury sees both real house prices & real wages falling in 2026/27. No Govt has ever been re-elected post-MMP with both falling; Formal bid lodged to cancel NZ-EU FTA over NZ’s climate back-sliding
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Shamubeel Eaqub @seaqub.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I made a doco re how provincial NZ can fight back. It’s the stories of great humans in two towns who told me there stories. Hope it will spark something in you, like it did for me. For RNZ & Newsroom with funding from NZ on Air. www.rnz.co.nz/video/zombie...
rnz.co.nz
Zombie Towns: Everything I Missed
NEW | Economist Shamubeel Eaqub got a lot of flak for his ‘zombie town’ theory. 10 years on, he dares to go back to provincial New Zealand.
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Simon Kuestenmacher @simongerman600.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
New Zealand superimposed on Japan. 4.9 million people vs 126 million. Source: buff.ly/2ZLxp4e
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Manu Caddie @manucaddie.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
newsroom.co.nz/2026/09/30/f... - hopefully the politicians will start taking climate commitments more seriously if it has trade consequences #nzpol
newsroom.co.nz
Formal complaint that NZ climate backsliding breaches Europe trade deal
The Government's top law officer warned that if ministers blocked Mike Smith's Fonterra lawsuit, the next case would target the Crown directly. She's been proven right, reports Jonathan Milne.
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Francisco Blaha @franciscoblaha.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
People like @bernardchickey.bsky.social and many others have being warning about this for at least 3 years now… is happening now. Good one Nat/NZ1st/ACT coalition, you total muppets playing with my kid’s future www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...
rnz.co.nz
NZ accused of breaking climate change promise with EU, but Todd McClay rejects claim
A Dutch environmental group claims New Zealand has broken its climate change promises in the free trade agreement with the EU and is lodging the first complaint of its kind through the European Commis...
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Christina Hood @christinahood.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Lindsay Wood has more background on the complaint about NZ's compliance with the EU-NZ Free Trade Agreement climate obligations here:
climatemattersnz.substack.com
“NZ in the Dock” Climate Matters Special
Guilty as charged?
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I’ve opened this up for all. Includes video, analysis, charts, tables and lots of fun chat about accrual accounting and cranes. #nzpol thekaka.substack.com/p/fiscal-dra...
thekaka.substack.com
‘Fiscal drag’ + ‘sinking lid’ = early(er) surpluses
Treasury forecasts lower Government deficits & borrowing in PREFU because inflation pumped up nominal incomes & spending, which boosted taxes; Sinking lid on investment & spending ‘improve’ books too
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Willis says National to lower Govt spending below 30% of GDP from 33% now, not just to 30%; Labour capping spending at 33% GDP; Willis & Luxon talk up using budget space for tax cuts, vs lowering debt #nzpol thekaka.substack.com/p/willis-eye...
thekaka.substack.com
Willis eyes real spending cuts to fund tax cuts
Willis says National to lower Govt spending below 30% of GDP from 33% now, not just to 30%; Labour capping spending at 33% GDP; Willis & Luxon talk up using budget space for tax cuts, vs lowering debt
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Wisdom from a citizen of New Zealand
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
True this.
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Guy Body @bodycartoon.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
For Thomas Coughlan's article: www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/...
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Here's today's email for paying subs: Despite a court ruling they had to refund clawed-back ‘double dips’ from injured beneficiaries, ACC & MSD play ‘pass the parcel’ to avoid $63m-The Post-$; Labour would cut student debt 10%; National eyes tax cuts. #nzpol thekaka.substack.com/p/acc-and-ms...
thekaka.substack.com
ACC & MSD blocking refunds to sick & injured
Despite a court ruling they had to refund clawed-back ‘double dips’ from injured beneficiaries, ACC & MSD play ‘pass the parcel’ to avoid $63m - The Post-$; Labour pledges to cut student debt 10%
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Guy Body @bodycartoon.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Early Bird for paying subscribers: Ipsos poll shows healthcare fear up to record high & 2nd biggest election issue behind inflation/cost of living, but voter confidence in National & Labour falls; Coalition dispute delays council plans #nzpol thekaka.substack.com/p/early-bird...
thekaka.substack.com
Early Bird: Healthcare concerns rise, but confidence in both Labour & National fall
Ipsos poll shows healthcare fear up to record high & 2nd biggest election issue behind inflation/cost of living, but voter confidence in National & Labour falls; Coalition dispute delays council plans
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Sharon Murdoch @domesticanimal.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Minister of Tourism Louise Upston on where the $40m came from to entice large overseas acts to Aotearoa. My #cartoon today #NZpol #NZMusic #NZArts
Cartoon. Title: “The Impresario” Two frames. 1st frame shows Louise Upston saying, “I can’t pull money for local performers, concerts and  festivals out of thin air!” 2nd frame has her continuing, “and I didn’t pull money for big overseas acts out of thin air” Image shows Upton with her hands out, wearing a suit and bow tie, with money rushing from behind her, saying, “I had the $40 mill coming out the wazoo!”
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I have opened this up to all immediately. NZ diesel prices & mortgage rates set to spike pre-election; US eyes diesel export ban, which would lift NZ wholesale diesel costs, just as US bond yields that drive NZ fixed mortgage rates also surge. #nzpol thekaka.substack.com/p/ready-for-...
thekaka.substack.com
Ready for $4/l diesel & 6% fixed mortgage rates?
NZ diesel prices & mortgage rates set to spike pre-election; US eyes diesel export ban, which would lift NZ wholesale diesel costs, just as US bond yields that drive NZ fixed mortgage rates also surge
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Guy Body @bodycartoon.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
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Marc Daalder @marcdaalder.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Imagine: Christopher Luxon is watching the television with horror. The electorate map is turning blue. And with each marginal seat secured by a backbench National MP no one’s ever heard of, another member of the PM's kitchen cabinet is locked out of Parliament. newsroom.co.nz/2026/09/22/h...
newsroom.co.nz
How a National election win could wipe out Luxon’s top ministers
Campaign Observer: Simeon Brown could end up minister of finance and a Labour MP could be Speaker if things go right and wrong for National
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Musical Chairs @musicalchairs.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Useful chart, you'll find NZ a few places below Japan. Next time you hear the '$10bn a year on debt servicing costs' 😱 😱 😱 , remember that the number being quoted is gross, like in accounting terms. My main beef with govt interest payments is that they are a transfer of govt $ money to rich people.
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Kiwi Karma
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
This is a big deal. ‘Trump supports diesel export ban as fuel prices hit records’ www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
reuters.com
Trump supports diesel export ban as fuel prices hit records
US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he backed a ban on diesel exports, as ‌Republican candidates in some of the tightest election races in November called for the measure as a way to curb record...
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🔜 Soon Lee @soonleenz.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Farrar vs. Farrier: how to tell the difference. By @xtotl.bsky.social Toby Morris.
Screenshot of a post by artist Toby Morris with very simple sketches showing the difference between the Davids with caricatures of their heads: Farrar is bald & is shorter, placed lower on the screen, Farrier has dark hair & stubble & is taller, placed higher than Farrar on screen.
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 22/09/2026
I have a new piece out in Nature today on the record-breaking 2026/2027 El Niño, what impacts we should expect, and how governments can prepare. The Niño3.4 region is currently running more than 1C hotter than any prior event on record, and we remain months away from the peak www.nature.com/artic...
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Here’s an Election Hoon I did with @labournz.bsky.social 's Arena Williams and Monopoly Watch NZ's Tex Edwards on how to break up the supermarkets duopoly. Open to all. #nzpol thekaka.substack.com/p/election-h...
thekaka.substack.com
Election Hoon: How should the supermarkets duopoly be broken up?
Bernard Hickey dives deep into how to break up the supermarkets duopoly in a ‘Hoon’ with Labour’s Arena Williams & MonopolyWatch’s Tex Edwards. The key? The pace & scale of any growth of independents
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Useful thread
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
The year of a climate dragon.
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Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
My email today: Nicky Hager launches ‘Dirty Work,’ detailing how surge of Groundswell donations shifted Taxpayers’ Union focus to race relations from Govt spending; RBNZ’s Covid response criticised #nzpol. thekaka.substack.com/p/dirty-work...
thekaka.substack.com
‘Dirty Work’ shows Taxpayers Union pivot to race
Nicky Hager launches ‘Dirty Work,’ detailing how surge of Groundswell donations shifted Taxpayers’ Union focus to race relations from Govt spending; RBNZ’s Covid response criticised
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Whakamataku - Toitū Te Tiriti 🍉 @whakamataku.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Crouching Luxon hidden Hipkins. 😬🙄😶‍🌫️
static.klipy.com
Kick Fail
Alt: Kick Fail
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