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Caitlin Talmadge

@proftalmadge.bsky.social
6.6K followers 225 following 363 posts

MIT professor, Brookings senior fellow, series editor at Cornell Press ⎮ Foreign policy, military operations, civil-military relations, nuclear weapons, authoritarianism ⎮ Views are my own ⎮ Book: The Dictator's Army www.caitlintalmadge.com

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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
The administration still doesn't get that Iran has a vote on when this conflict ends. www.wsj.com/world/middle...
wsj.com
Iran’s Secret Plan to Escalate the War
Intercepted communications and other intelligence suggest a strategic shift by hard-line leaders to raise the costs for the U.S. and its regional allies.
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Delighted to have joined The Beijing Brief podcast from Taipei for a discussion of Taiwan's defense policy and security environment with Ryan Hass and Jon Czin! www.brookings.edu/articles/how...
brookings.edu
How secure is Taiwan? The view from Taipei | Brookings
Ryan Hass and Jon Czin are joined by Brookings Nonresident Senior Fellow Caitlin Talmadge for a special episode of The Beijing Brief from on the ground in Taipei. Drawing on conversations with Taiwane...
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
I'm old enough to remember when South Korea was the linchpin of US plans to increase ship building capacity. (That was 3 days ago btw.)
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Saying the Lincoln has among the lowest number of mental health cases among US carriers isn’t the great talking point you think it is
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Translation: Trump launched a war with the unrealistic goal of eliminating Iran's nuclear program at low cost, a goal now being jettisoned in a desperate attempt to return to the status quo ante in the Strait, which is also likely to fail.
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
If you need more convincing on why large unhardened bases are a big vulnerability both in the Gulf and Indo-Pacific www.nytimes.com/2026/08/14/u...
nytimes.com
Navy and USS Lincoln’s Problems Are Tied to Attacks on U.S. Base Early in War
Diego Garcia, a tiny island 2,200 miles from the Gulf of Oman, took over as the Navy’s logistics hub after Iran damaged a base in Bahrain.
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
“Chances are this MOU is both the first and last deal that Trump and Iran ever sign" www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
wsj.com
Trump Pledged No Forever Wars. Now He Risks Forever Talks With Iran.
Tehran has a well-worn playbook for drawing out negotiations and putting off concessions that cross its redlines.
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
More evidence that US-Iran agreement has not effectively addressed Iran's continuing ability to interfere with traffic in the Strait-- a source of Iranian strategic leverage that did not exist before the war. www.nytimes.com/2026/06/26/w...
nytimes.com
After Attacking Cargo Ship, Iran Presses Its Claim to Authority Over Strait
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Iranian long-range precision strike in the Gulf is a harbinger of serious threats to U.S. power projection not only there but also in the Indo-Pacific. Mara Karlin and I wrote a piece on this a couple weeks ago @brookings.edu linked below. www.wsj.com/world/middle...
wsj.com
How Iran Devastated an American Naval Base—and Caused a U.S. Recalculation
Satellite imagery reveals for the first time the extent of what Iran destroyed at Naval Support Activity Bahrain.
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Nothing new for Presidents and Secretaries to fire generals-- that is entirely their right. But doing so en masse without explanation is unprecedented and corrosive, as Admiral McRaven perfectly explains in this piece. www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...
theatlantic.com
Americans Deserve Answers From Hegseth
The president and the secretary of defense have a right to remove officers, but also an obligation to explain their actions.
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
"A senior administration official said Iran knows U.S. is unwilling to return to war, raising possibility that Tehran could close the Strait again for its own diplomatic leverage. The official said the agreement is likely to be less restrictive than the 2015 deal." www.wsj.com/world/middle...
wsj.com
The Race to Land an Iran Deal Loomed Large Behind Trump’s UFC Birthday
In one weekend, Trump veered from threatening the “ultimate alternative” against Iran to celebrating what he called a “great deal” to end the war.
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
There is a lot we don’t know about the MOU US and Iran apparently plan to sign later this week, but a few things stand out based on reports we are seeing: 1/4
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Some questions about the purported US-Iran MOU: - Why was war necessary to achieve what is in this agreement? - How does this agreement improve on the JCPOA that Trump abandoned in 2018 even though US certified Iran as being in compliance? 1/2
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
THIS: "Even if the ceasefire holds, the strategic landscape has shifted in ways that cannot be undone. Iran’s months‑long blockade shattered a decades‑old taboo and demonstrated its ability to weaponise the strait at will." www.lloydslist.com/LL1157463/A-...
lloydslist.com
A fragile thaw in Hormuz but timing and sequence now matter
A 60‑day US–Iran ceasefire promises to re-open the Strait of Hormuz, triggering rapid market reactions, but the maritime sector remains cautious amid unclear rules, unresolved nuclear negotiations and fears of reclosure
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Delighted to share this @brookings.edu piece with Mara Karlin on the long-term military implications of the Iran war. www.brookings.edu/articles/the...
brookings.edu
The end of the American way of war? | Brookings
The Iran war has demonstrated that U.S. forward-deployed forces in the Middle East no longer enjoy sanctuary from attack.
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
“Iran’s decisions show they believe they have the upper hand, with Trump deterred from renewing the fighting." www.wsj.com/world/middle...
wsj.com
Iran’s Attack on Israel Reveals New and Aggressive Regional Ambitions
The move to protect Hezbollah shows an appetite for risk that didn’t exist before the war.
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Clearest sign yet that Iran doesn't believe it lost this war. Bodes very poorly for any deal-making with US. www.nytimes.com/2026/06/08/w...
nytimes.com
Why Iran Risked an Attack on Israel
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Iran appears to be entering the extended deterrence business. "Where it once used allies such as Hezbollah to insulate itself from conflict with Israel, it is now fighting Israel directly to defend its allies, Citrinowicz said." www.wsj.com/world/middle...
wsj.com
Trump and Netanyahu’s Rift Over Lebanon Is Deepening
The exchange of fire between Israel and Iran has brought new urgency to a simmering disagreement.
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
👀 "Trump surprised Gulf allies by announcing Project Freedom. In response, the Kingdom informed the U.S. it would not allow the U.S. military to fly aircraft from Prince Sultan Airbase southeast of Riyadh or fly through Saudi airspace to support the effort." www.nbcnews.com/politics/whi...
nbcnews.com
Trump’s abrupt U-turn on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz came after backlash from allies
Saudi Arabia, a key Gulf ally, suspended the U.S. military’s ability to use its bases and airspace to carry out the operation, sources say.
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
None of the Iran War's stated strategic objectives have been achieved. Highly repressive regime still in Tehran, nuclear program still intact, missiles & drones still launching. And US now suddenly pausing effort to re-open Hormuz-- a problem that did not exist before the war. It's mind-boggling.
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Lots of care at this morning's Hegseth-Caine presser to emphasize that Project Freedom is distinct from Epic Fury, and that exchanges of fire yesterday remained low level. They sure don't want anyone bringing up the War Powers Resolution....
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
"European security officials say they are worried Tehran might later retaliate for the killing of senior Iranian leaders, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, by targeting a western leader or military asset." www.ft.com/content/63dd...
ft.com
Iran’s covert war on opponents abroad
Experts say Tehran is likely to eventually seek retaliation against senior figures over the US-Israeli war
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
US decision to send warships into the Strait still carries significant risk. Not something you do if you think your blockade is about to produce coercive success from afar.
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
"U.S. military forces including warships and aircraft actively protected several commercial vessels from Iranian attacks Monday" www.wsj.com/world/middle...
wsj.com
Fighting Flares Up in Iran War as U.A.E. and Ships Are Attacked
The Emirates accused Iran of its first attack during the cease-fire as the U.S. deployed warships and jets to protect vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
I would love to be wrong, but this feels like a nothing burger. Essentially a coordination cell. Reinforces that Iran still controls the Strait and US is reluctant to regularly send in warships. www.wsj.com/world/middle...
wsj.com
Trump Says U.S. Will Guide Stranded Ships Through Strait of Hormuz
The plan is an arm’s-length effort to unblock the vital supply waterway that doesn’t involve escorts by U.S. warships.
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
Russia and China continue to win the Iran War. www.ft.com/content/f87a...
ft.com
US warns Europe of delays to arms shipments as Iran war drains stockpiles
Deferred deliveries could include those used in Ukraine’s defence against Russia
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
"If we’re running low after a few weeks of fighting Iran, we’re nowhere near where we need to be for Russia and China" www.nytimes.com/2026/04/30/u...
nytimes.com
Trump’s Plans to Boost Weapons Production Might Not Deliver for Years
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
But I was told this would all be over in 6 weeks www.axios.com/2026/04/28/i...
axios.com
The Iran conflict has become the new Cold War
There's no immediate end in sight, higher energy prices appear certain for months — and a hot war could break out at any moment.
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
"Vance has repeatedly questioned the Defense Department’s depiction of the war in Iran and whether the Pentagon has understated what appears to be the drastic depletion of U.S. missile stockpiles." www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...
theatlantic.com
The Pentagon May Not Be Telling Trump the Full Picture About the War
Vice President Vance is worried that the U.S. is running low on weapons.
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
It is stunning that the US apparently did not take Iran’s threats to close the Strait seriously, nor does the campaign seem to have recognized the specific military importance of mines as a tool for asymmetric Iranian leverage. Quick thread 1/ www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/u...
nytimes.com
Iran Unable to Find Mines It Planted in Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Says
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
The trope is that the US achieves its military objectives but fails to translate them into strategic success. In this war even the first part isn't true. www.wsj.com/world/middle...
wsj.com
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
First rule of TACO is don't talk about TACO. The President has found a way to climb down from a disastrously ill-conceived war that was not achieving U.S. objectives. Let him.
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
I am all in favor of this de-escalation. But if Iran gets even some of what it is asking for in its peace plan, it will clearly end this war in a stronger position than it was in beforehand.
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
"The war-planning group had been kept so tight that the two key officials who would need to manage the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Energy Secretary Chris Wright, were excluded." www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/u...
nytimes.com
How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
Yes, a lunatic controlling nuclear weapons would be very scary.
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
The Iran War has gobbled up a breathtaking amount of U.S. military capability vital for deterring a Chinese attack on Taiwan. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
US Deploys Bulk of Stealthy Long-Range Missile for Iran War
The next steps in the US military campaign against Iran will commit nearly its entire inventory of stealthy JASSM-ER cruise missiles, drawing them from stockpiles devoted to other regions.
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
The core issue: "Trump told them he wants to wind down the campaign, wary of a protracted conflict. At the same time, he wants the operation to be a decisive success." We get to pick one, at best. time.com/article/2026...
time.com
Inside Trump's Search for a Way Out of the Iran War
Facing political backlash, global economic shock, and the looming midterms, the President still doesn't want to get out of Iran without declaring victory.
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
This is a really important point. I would argue that Hegseth's impact on actual defense strategy and policy is going to be minimal. But his impact on the military as an institution, and on civil-military relations, is already profound and negative.
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
The administration does not seem to grasp that the Strait of Hormuz is the center of gravity in this war. www.wsj.com/world/middle...
wsj.com
Control Over Strait of Hormuz Will Determine Who Wins the War
Iran is seeking permanent leverage over the Middle East with new rules for the strategic waterway.
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
Firing senior officers for cause is one thing. Firing them repeatedly on this scale and with no explanation is unprecedented in our nation's history. www.nytimes.com/2026/04/02/u...
nytimes.com
Hegseth Fires Army Chief Amid Battle With Its Leaders
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
This is why the Strait is not open & won't be any time soon. Not only does Iran retain significant ballistic missiles, drones, mines & small boats, but US campaign has not prioritized destroying Iran's anti-ship cruise missiles--a threat well known prior to the war. www.cnn.com/2026/04/02/p...
cnn.com
Exclusive: US intelligence assesses Iran maintains significant missile launching capability, sources say | CNN Politics
Roughly half of Iran’s missile launchers are still intact and thousands of one-way attack drones remain in Iran’s arsenal despite the daily pounding by US and Israeli strikes against military targets ...
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
There is a lot I like in this analysis, but it seems to radically underestimate scale of forces that would be required for effective escort operations during an ongoing war. A handful of destroyers and some patrol aircraft won't do it. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
European Allies Should Clear the Strait of Hormuz
In his ongoing frustration with the war against Iran, US President Donald Trump continues to lash out at America’s European allies. He called the North Atlantic Treaty Organization a “paper tiger,” an...
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Useful discussion & imagery of Iranian islands in the Gulf-- but I would push back on the notion that it is these islands that give Iran a stranglehold on the Gulf. 1/2 www.wsj.com/world/middle...
wsj.com
The Islands That Give Iran a Stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz
The importance of islands such as Kharg, Qeshm and Abu Musa is becoming increasingly apparent as Iran causes an economic crisis by blocking most oil tankers from the strait.
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
"In total 142 vessels have transited since the start of the month, but 67% of that traffic has a direct affiliation with Iran. This figure rises to 90% when looking at traffic in recent days." www.lloydslist.com/LL1156720/Te...
lloydslist.com
Tehran’s ‘toll booth’ system is now controlling Hormuz traffic
Iran’s IRGC has imposed a de facto ‘toll booth’ regime in the Strait of Hormuz, requiring vessels to submit full documentation, obtain clearance codes and accept IRGC-escorted passage through a single controlled corridor
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
"Saudi Arabia at first saw benefits in the Islamic regime being weakened. But Riyadh now fears that Trump will declare victory and withdraw, leaving the Gulf to deal with a wounded but more hawkish, militaristic regime in Tehran able to continue threatening its neighbours" www.ft.com/content/dcbd...
ft.com
Saudi Arabia bridles at Donald Trump’s way of waging war
Nearly five weeks after US and Israel attacked Iran, Washington’s Gulf ally frets about the damage
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Trump speech is implicit recognition that Iran war is not going well & US options for escalating its way out are bad. 1/
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Additional objectives achieved in this war: -Iran running a toll booth in the Strait -Iran retaining HEU & more motivated to build a bomb -Iran regularly launching missiles and drones -Iranian hardliners elevated and empowered
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Any lasting constraints on Iran's nuclear program achieved through this war (none have been achieved yet) should be measured not against the alternative of doing nothing, but against what could have been and was achieved through diplomatic alternatives that the President has repeatedly disregarded.
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Will US surface Navy be indefinitely excluded from the Gulf now that Iran controls the Strait? US appears to have removed all its warships from inside Gulf in advance of this war. Will they ever go back in, or is Naval Support Activity Bahrain done as a base for 5th Fleet?
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Caitlin Talmadge @proftalmadge.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
The Iran war really couldn’t be going any better for Russia if Putin had designed it in a lab. www.cnbc.com/2026/04/01/t...
cnbc.com
Trump says he's considering pulling U.S. out of 'paper tiger' NATO
The President's comments are the latest threat to America's allies after their reluctance to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
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