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Joshua Tallis

@doctallis.bsky.social
481 followers 453 following 189 posts

Naval and maritime strategy | Director, Ally and Partner Security Affairs program @ CNA | Author of War for Muddy Waters: Pirates, Terrorists, Traffickers, and Maritime Insecurity

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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
"The costs of sustaining US active defense of a southern export route are high, but many of those costs are obscured & shifted to the future…Delayed maintenance, extended operating hours for ships & a/c, higher use of reservists — these are all bills that will incur real costs for the military."
argusmedia.com
High costs belie US claim of opening Hormuz | Latest Market News
President Donald Trump's administration has become increasingly confident it has eroded Iran's ability to constrict energy flows through the strait of Hormuz, but the high price of those efforts — bot...
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
One of the genuinely novel parts of the US / Denmark / Greenland agreement is a renewed focus on managing foreign direct investment (FDI) in Greenland. That meets a genuine need, and is in service of Greenlandic, Danish, NATO, US, Canadian, and EU security interests.
whitehouse.gov
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GOVERNMENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE KINGDOM OF DENMARK TOGETHER WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF GREENLAND
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GOVERNMENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE KINGDOM OF DENMARK TOGETHER WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
“According to Tallis, there is an unanswered question of how much risk the military should accept when deploying uncrewed systems, including how to determine when a system has delivered enough value to justify its loss.“ www.militarytimes.com/news/your-mi...
militarytimes.com
CENTCOM has become a battle lab for unmanned systems
Unmanned systems have moved quickly from experimentation and exercises into the demands of an active war.
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
“While some oil tankers have been shuttling in & out of the strait under US air cover, other shipping traffic has fallen to minimal levels, in part because the rates those vessels can earn — compared with much higher rates for tankers — make it not worth the risk.” H/t @cornelloverfield.bsky.social
ft.com
The Gulf cargo trade that vanished
The Strait of Hormuz was a transit hub for goods from helium to corn. Businesses have battled to find alternative routes
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Austal USA's woes are a notable counterpoint to the theory that foreign shipyard management competency is readily transferable to US subsidiaries. I'm loathe to extrapolate too much from just one case, but the MIB clearly faces deep structural challenges that new ownership does not solve on its own.
forbes.com
A Fight For Austal USA Is Great For Shareholders But Bad For The U.S.
As a bidding war erupts for Austal USA, the U.S. government may need to weigh in on the future of the troubled American shipbuilder.
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Couldn’t agree more about the nature of competition and the centrality of global commons. thestrategybridge.org/the-bridge/2...
thestrategybridge.org
Strategy of the Commons: Defending the International Order Where it is Most Vulnerable
References to the rules-based order are frequent in everything from the Biden-era Interim National Security Strategic Guidance to the Trump-era Advantage at Sea. Yet what it means to defend the order,...
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Setting aside raw scale, which is a huge challenge, I see 3 structural business problems with the current defense industrial base: consolidation, isolation, and speed of innovation. This effort by the Deputy Secretary takes aim at some root causes of isolation, so let’s talk about that for a minute.
war.gov
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
“Joshua Tallis, naval analyst at the US security research organisation CNA, said the request for ships to transit at specific times was likely ‘an effective means to manage the costs associated with a persistent and indefinite US defence of the southern Strait of Hormuz route’.”
ft.com
US limits air defence time slots for tankers sailing through Hormuz
Shift to two specified times daily follows increase in Iranian attacks
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Attritable ≠ consumable. I don’t want to levy criticisms that make DoD less risk tolerant of real world UxS use. The learning is needed. But we also haven’t figured out exactly what level of expendability we attribute to uncrewed systems, nor how we assess when they have achieved amortized value.
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
The US led order is fundamentally maritime in nature, an inheritance from Grotius and Pax Brittanica wielded into the most accretive global trading system ever devised. That order is also largely consensual—small and middle powers participated willingly because they accrued wealth and stability.
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
I’m not inherently against the “Finland model” for shipbuilding but it strikes me that a lot of people are invoking it as a proven approach whereas I don’t know if the jury is in on its success yet, nor do we know how easily one could extrapolate from an icebreaker to, say, a foreign warship design.
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
As US allies aim to minimize reliance on American technology and defense providers, The Economist notes that cutting the chord is perhaps less effective than leaning in to the bargaining power of mutual dependency: "America’s allies might usefully focus on making themselves even more indispensable."
economist.com
America Inc has a tight grip on allied governments
Companies from Palantir to Lockheed account for a small share of spending, but are hard to shake
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Two important new reports on working with allies to expand and stabilize defense manufacturing are worth your attention. A 🧵
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Return to steam is getting the headlines from this EO but the more interesting analytic challenge may be in ensuring the Navy does overseas (co)production in the most optimal way possible. www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
whitehouse.gov
Rebuilding the United States Navy and America's Shipbuilding Industrial Base
MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF WAR THE DIRECTOR OF THE OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET THE ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT FOR NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
Last week I joined Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty for a wide ranging conversation on the Strait. We talked about the security environment, commercial vs mil incentives, coercion in diplomacy, and what it really means to restore freedom of navigation in the Gulf. www.rferl.org/a/hormuz-str...
rferl.org
Reopening Hormuz Strait Easier Than Restoring Confidence, Naval Analyst Tallis Says
With the US and Iran launching fresh strikes in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz is back under the spotlight. Naval strategist Joshua Tallis says restoring commercial confidence -- not military f...
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
I recently joined the @usni.org podcast to talk about my June Proceedings article on treating naval ship construction like a public utility. My thanks to @billhamblet.bsky.social for the invitation and great discussion! youtu.be/oNFpyI1d8SM?...
youtu.be
Shipbuilding as a Public Utility?
YouTube video by U.S. Naval Institute
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
This one is a bit provocative. www.usni.org/magazines/pr...
usni.org
Treat Naval Shipbuilders Like Public Utilities
A utility designation would allow better regulation of and more rational capital allocation for the builders of the Navy’s capital ships.
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
“"It was a tactical and operational victory and a strategic draw, if not a strategic defeat," said Joshua Tallis, a naval analyst at research firm CNA.” A 🧵 on the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz, and what they teach us about the commercial variable in war at sea. www.reuters.com/business/ene...
reuters.com
Western powers were unable to secure shipping in the Red Sea. Hormuz will be harder
The Western allies trying to negotiate a way to protect the Strait of Hormuz for energy shipping face a stark reality: a similar effort in the Red Sea that started years earlier cost billions of dolla...
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
“Three weeks before the Middle East war broke out, Tallis said, “With scenarios like Iran, the navy understands, at the top line, that the Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for the movement of oil.” www.lloydslist.com/LL1156532/Th...
lloydslist.com
They all said Hormuz closure would be brief. What if they were wrong?
On day six of the Middle East war, hope of a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is fading. There does not seem to be a quick fix. A material return of transits in the future will require shipowners to be convinced that the route is safe for their crew and vessel assets 
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
“President Donald Trump on Tuesday said that “if necessary”, the US Navy would escort tankers through the strait “as soon as possible”. The US Development Finance Corporation would also provide risk insurance and guarantees for tankers travelling in the Gulf “at a very reasonable price”.
ft.com
Military briefing: how Iran could wage a new ‘tanker war’
Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz echo the 1980s conflict. Here are the weapons Tehran can use against commercial shipping
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
First known mariner casualty of the war. www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/seaf...
tradewindsnews.com
Seafarer killed after explosion and fire hit tanker in the Middle East
Crewman is the first known seafaring casualty of the Middle East conflict
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Thoughtful writeup by @lloydslistdaily.bsky.social on my recent remarks on global instability in the maritime domain as a commercial shipping conference this week. www.lloydslist.com/LL1156326/Ef...
lloydslist.com
Effect of geopolitics on shipping poised to escalate, so ‘buckle up’
There are so many geopolitical ‘black swans’ in shipping that they might as well be white. Disruption is now the rule, not the exception. Speakers at the HACC-NACC conference in New York laid out the risks ahead
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
It’s live! The U.S. Navy Fighting Instructions are ADM Caudle’s thesis on how the Navy adapts to dynamic adversaries. They are how the Navy builds a repeatable process to organize, train, and equip a force that is capable of deterring a fight and ending one.
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
"Latvia finds no link between ship and Baltic cable breach, probe goes on." This is a helpful reminder of two defining features of the critical undersea infrastructure (CUI) challenge.
reuters.com
Latvia finds no link between ship and Baltic cable breach, probe goes on
Latvian police have found no evidence linking a ship docked in the port of Liepaja to damage to an underwater telecoms cable running in the Baltic Sea from Latvia to Lithuania, but are investigating t...
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Reposted by Joshua Tallis
War on the Rocks @warontherocks.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
What does it mean when an attack is designed to be intercepted?
warontherocks.com
Chicken Versus Bumper Cars in Conflict Escalation
Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel last April — and the attack might have been designed to fail. The strike was a show of force built
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
April 13, 2024. Iran launches hundreds of drones and missiles against Israel. Almost none hits. No one is killed. No critical infrastructure is destroyed. It was not a failure. As I argue, this is performative aggression, a game of bumper cars in a world long defined by games of chicken.
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
My latest in War on the Rocks
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 07/09/2025
In 2019 I published a book on maritime insecurity, and in particular the challenge of aligning constabulary ways with military means. I argued at the time that, as maritime security threats rose in sophistication, it would be increasingly appealing to apply military resources to counter them.
amazon.com
The War for Muddy Waters: Pirates, Terrorists, Traffickers, and Maritime Insecurity
The War for Muddy Waters: Pirates, Terrorists, Traffickers, and Maritime Insecurity [Tallis, Joshua] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. The War for Muddy Waters: Pirates, Terrorists, Traffickers, and Maritime Insecurity
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
This @warontherocks.bsky.social article offers a valuable, skeptical assessment of how transformative first-person view (FPV) drones have been on the Ukrainian battlefield—and is a great illustration of why it matters to collect data on the ground.
warontherocks.com
I Fought in Ukraine and Here’s Why FPV Drones Kind of Suck - War on the Rocks
In 2024 and 2025, I served for six months as an international volunteer on a first-person view attack drone team in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. My team
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
As the kinetic nature of the Israeli strikes on Iran capture attention, there are also other impacts across the maritime space, particularly looking at energy and commercial SLOCs, worth tracking.
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
It was a pleasure to rejoin the Sailor Pulse podcast to talk about the good, bad, and indifferent in Navy’s “fight from the MOC” journey. This was an interesting and fun discussion that reflects the underlying aspirations and frustrations in how fleet commanders envision the role of MOCs in war.
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 05/06/2025
Who could have seen that coming…
nytimes.com
Red Sea Passage Remains a No-Go for Shipping Despite U.S. Action
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
I’ve rarely seen a command execute thoughtful in-stride campaign analysis. This should be a five alarm concern for CCDRs, the inability to monitor and self-assess operational level progress turns a four star into chief tactician instead of the strategic leader they’ve been selected to be.
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
Rhymes with my own analysis from prior to Operation Rough Rider as well. warontherocks.com/2025/04/how-...
warontherocks.com
How the Biden Administration Won Tactically but Failed Strategically in the Red Sea - War on the Rocks
For 15 months, the U.S. Navy fought its fiercest battles since at least the Tanker War. The Navy racked up nearly flawless tactical victories in
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Reposted by Joshua Tallis
Center for International Maritime Security (CIMSEC) @cimsec.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
CIMSEC IS RECRUITING! CIMSEC is now welcoming applications for a volunteer Deputy Editor-in-Chief. This person will be responsible for helping lead CIMSEC’s editorial operation. Please reach out to Content@cimsec.org to apply and for further details. www.linkedin.com/posts/dmitry...
linkedin.com
Next month will mark 10 years of me being CIMSEC’s volunteer… | Dmitry Filipoff
Next month will mark 10 years of me being CIMSEC’s volunteer editor-in-chief. It has been an extremely fulfilling experience, and I am beyond grateful to all those I have gotten to work with along the...
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 26/04/2025
It was a pleasure to join @thecipherbrief.bsky.social to talk about the importance of the Arctic to the U.S.. In addition to the usual talking points on national security, I tried to also emphasize economics, trade, and climate here, without which we cannot understand global interest in the region.
youtu.be
Why the Arctic Matters More Than Ever
YouTube video by The Cipher Brief
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 25/04/2025
This piece on the EU contribution to Red Sea defense is a nice pairing to the War on the Rocks piece I wrote on Operation Prosperity Guardian earlier this month. The author takes the EU perspective well and notes (with fairness) that many analyses (including mine, I'd add) are quite US-focused.
warontherocks.com
How the Biden Administration Won Tactically but Failed Strategically in the Red Sea - War on the Rocks
For 15 months, the U.S. Navy fought its fiercest battles since at least the Tanker War. The Navy racked up nearly flawless tactical victories in
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
From me in Defense News: The recent maritime EO mandated 90-day assessment of how allies and trade policy relate to domestic shipbuilding. I have some ideas, and they start with weighing our strengths (innovation, software, tech) against our allies (huge preexisting maritime capital expenditures).
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 21/04/2025
Trying real hard to reach that one guy in N97!
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Reposted by Joshua Tallis
War on the Rocks @warontherocks.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
Want to write for War on the Rocks?
warontherocks.com
Want to write for War on the Rocks?
Want to write for War on the Rocks?
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
You can find my full article on the subject here: warontherocks.com/2025/04/how-...
warontherocks.com
How the Biden Administration Won Tactically but Failed Strategically in the Red Sea - War on the Rocks
For 15 months, the U.S. Navy fought its fiercest battles since at least the Tanker War. The Navy racked up nearly flawless tactical victories in
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Reposted by Joshua Tallis
War on the Rocks @warontherocks.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
Why has shipping in the Red Sea failed to return to pre-conflict levels? The answer has little to do with bombs and drones, but rather insurance, demand, and geopolitics. warontherocks.com/episode/the-...
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Reposted by Joshua Tallis
Dr. Jonathan Schroden @jjschroden.bsky.social · 11/04/2025
Some professional news! www.cna.org/our-media/pr...
cna.org
CNA Names Jonathan Schroden as Chief Research Officer
CNA announced this week that Dr. Jonathan Schroden has accepted the position of Chief Research Officer
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
Thank you to Kerry Anderson and War on the Rocks for having me on The Insider podcast to discuss my recent article on the Red Sea. You can read that article here: warontherocks.com/2025/04/how-...
warontherocks.com
How the Biden Administration Won Tactically but Failed Strategically in the Red Sea - War on the Rocks
For 15 months, the U.S. Navy fought its fiercest battles since at least the Tanker War. The Navy racked up nearly flawless tactical victories in
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
I’ve always admired @csis.org’s innovation in visual storytelling. This article on Chinese shipbuilding is worth a read on the merits, but the thoughtful depiction makes it really stand out. Think tankers take note of interesting ideas on the intersection of analysis and research communication.
features.csis.org
Murky Waters: Navigating the Risks of China’s Dual-Use Shipyards
China’s booming dual-use shipyards are accelerating its rapid naval buildup. This Hidden Reach investigation demystifies China’s murky shipbuilding ecosystem and explores the role foreign firms play i...
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Reposted by Joshua Tallis
Jeremy Stöhs @jeremystohs.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
#Houthis Great piece by @doctallis.bsky.social @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/2025/04/how-...
warontherocks.com
How the Biden Administration Won Tactically but Failed Strategically in the Red Sea - War on the Rocks
For 15 months, the U.S. Navy fought its fiercest battles since at least the Tanker War. The Navy racked up nearly flawless tactical victories in
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Reposted by Joshua Tallis
War on the Rocks @warontherocks.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
The Red Sea crisis exposed a hard truth: strategy needs more than firepower.
warontherocks.com
The Red Sea crisis exposed a hard truth: strategy needs more than firepower.
The Red Sea crisis exposed a hard truth: strategy needs more than firepower.
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Reposted by Joshua Tallis
War on the Rocks @warontherocks.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
Tactical victories don’t always equal strategic success — just look at the Red Sea crisis. warontherocks.com/2025/04/how-the-b…
warontherocks.com
How the Biden Administration Won Tactically but Failed Strategically in the Red Sea - War on the Rocks
For 15 months, the U.S. Navy fought its fiercest battles since at least the Tanker War. The Navy racked up nearly flawless tactical victories in
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
Operation Prosperity Guardian was directionally right. Protecting maritime commerce is the kind of global public good that I would expect a superpower to provision in defense of the global trading system. The U.S. Navy provided nearly flawless tactical acumen in its execution.
warontherocks.com
How the Biden Administration Won Tactically but Failed Strategically in the Red Sea - War on the Rocks
For 15 months, the U.S. Navy fought its fiercest battles since at least the Tanker War. The Navy racked up nearly flawless tactical victories in
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Joshua Tallis @doctallis.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
media.tenor.com
a little girl is making a funny face while sitting at a table with potted plants .
ALT: a little girl is making a funny face while sitting at a table with potted plants .
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