This year’s Budget, scheduled for 28 October, takes place against a challenging economic and fiscal backdrop. Inflation looks set to go higher, as global energy prices remain elevated while there are ...

UK 10-year gilt yields rose 59 basis points over the quarter to 5.43, their highest level since 2007. Around two-thirds of this increase came from higher interest rate expectations.

The coalition government introduced the triple lock in 2011. It ensures the state pension rises each year by CPI inflation, average earnings growth, or 2.5 per cent, whichever is the highest. On paper...

Experts responding to the CfM-NIESR survey viewed ONS improvements to labour market data as the most important for strengthening economic policy.

Introduction The new Chancellor's first Budget falls against a challenging inheritance: the highest borrowing costs in the G7, a fiscal consolidation backloaded towards an election year, cash spending...

What has the ONS's new approach changed about our understanding of the UK productivity problem?  Since the 2008 financial crisis, the UK has been stuck in a productivity rut. Output per hour worked, w...

On 17 September, the ONS will publish its new component-based approach to measuring hours worked. This webinar discusses the implications of the new methodology and what it means for policymakers.

The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6–3 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent on Thursday. Alongside this, it announced that the Bank will reduce its stock of gilts held for monetary policy purposes to z...

NIESR is one of the UK's most respected independent economic research institutes — trusted by policymakers, journalists and business leaders for rigorous, evidence-led analysis. We're looking for a Di...

What factors affect the MPC members when they are assessing Bank Rate? Our dashboard contains analysis of the main determinants and likely policy responses.

For a breakdown of what inflation is and how it is calculated, read our blog post here.   “As inflation rises above 3 per cent, the Bank’s Governor will be forced… To access the content, membership ac...

“Annual growth in average weekly earnings edged down slightly to 3.9 per cent in the three months to July, while unemployment remained at 4.9 per cent, reflecting a stable if… To access the content, m...

Can people be incentivised to donate to local governments and specific public sector projects? Japan's “hometown tax” (furusato nozei) offers a blueprint.

NIESR is one of the UK's most respected independent economic research institutes — trusted by policymakers, journalists and business leaders for rigorous, evidence-led analysis. We're looking for a…

Is this purely a problem for the United Kingdom? We might be forgiven for thinking so, given some of the reporting but in fact the rise in bond yields is a global phenomenon. Although 10-year gilt…

Can people be incentivised to donate to local governments and specific public sector projects? Japan's “hometown tax” (furusato nozei) offers a blueprint.

Can people be incentivised to donate to local governments and specific public sector projects? Japan's “hometown tax” (furusato nozei) offers a blueprint.

Is this purely a problem for the United Kingdom? We might be forgiven for thinking so, given some of the reporting but in fact the rise in bond yields is a global phenomenon. Although 10-year gilt yie...

Is this purely a problem for the United Kingdom? We might be forgiven for thinking so, given some of the reporting but in fact the rise in bond yields is a global phenomenon. Although 10-year gilt yie...

In the context of an increasingly uncertain world, the Bank of England commissioned former US Federal Reserve Chairman Dr Ben Bernanke to review their forecasting and related processes. This increase…

The United Kingdom’s public debt stands at 94% of our national income. This policy brief outlines why we need to start to bring the debt ratio down.

The United Kingdom’s public debt stands at 94% of our national income. This policy brief outlines why we need to start to bring the debt ratio down.

Disastrous local election results have triggered open talk of a Labour leadership contest. How much of the UK's excess yield relates to the political risk?

Disastrous local election results have triggered open talk of a Labour leadership contest. How much of the UK's excess yield relates to the political risk?

This paper proposes a new approach to quantifying digital skill demands using job platform data, focusing on regions of the UK, and on industries identified by the UK government as of strategic…

How should Andy Burnham approach his economic policy? This blog examines whether fiscal tightening should be front-loaded and what fiscal-monetary policy mix is needed.

How much will the Iran war cost the UK economy? Analysis shows that over the first two years, the shock reduces cumulative real GDP by about £28.5 billion.

This paper proposes a new approach to quantifying digital skill demands using job platform data, focusing on regions of the UK, and on industries identified by the UK government as of strategic import...

Creating a forum for policy questions without sacrificing analytical seriousness

This paper proposes a new approach to quantifying digital skill demands using job platform data, focusing on regions of the UK, and on industries identified by the UK government as of strategic import...

About the Lecture  In this speech, Alan will examine a key source of uncertainty facing the Bank of England: the extent to which further energy-price shocks could generate persistent inflationary pres...

About the Lecture  In this speech, Alan will examine a key source of uncertainty facing the Bank of England: the extent to which further energy-price shocks could generate persistent inflationary pres...

How much will the Iran war cost the UK economy? Analysis shows that over the first two years, the shock reduces cumulative real GDP by about £28.5 billion.

The Office for National Statistics has been in the doghouse for years. The Labour Force Survey deteriorated to the point that publication had to be suspended in late 2023. Producer price statistics we...

Responding to a blog from David Aikman, this piece suggests the Prime Minister considers a front-loaded fiscal stimulus package to drive economic growth.

Responding to a blog from David Aikman, this piece suggests the Prime Minister considers a front-loaded fiscal stimulus package to drive economic growth.