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Chris Giles

@chrisgiles.ft.com
27K followers 426 following 1K posts

Economics Commentator, Financial Times; Honorary Professor of Practice, UCL Policy Lab Sign up to my central banks newsletter here ep.ft.com/newsletters/subscribe?new…

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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 29/09/2026
Central banks always think interest rate rates operate on demand. But what if tighter policy makes people want to work more? That labour supply effect can be large. People with high debts worked more when Australia tightened, for example My newsletter: www.ft.com/content/a060...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 22/09/2026
With Kevin Warsh boycotting the dot plot, it must be dying... My newsletter asks whether we should mourn? Probably not, but not because it locks people into their forecasts - it doesn't www.ft.com/content/ba73...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 17/09/2026
Anyway, (for various complicated reasons due to survey quality) the upshot is measured annual UK productivity per hour since the GFC will be revised up from 1.1% to 1.3%
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 10/09/2026
My column: I am intolerant of lazy stereotypes, accusing Europeans of being work-shy layabouts, degenerately dependent on welfare instead of doing an honest day’s work Europe doesn't need a crisis, it needs more successful gradual reform www.ft.com/content/362b...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 08/09/2026
Donald Trump might say silly things and appear to put the Fed under pressure... ... In fact there are more interesting connections between fiscal and monetary policy than crude fiscal dominance in a high debt world www.ft.com/content/dda7...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 06/09/2026
The first of many, I fear. Thanks Keir
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 01/09/2026
Not sure. First bullet is correct (if you think making a promise you might well not keep is important). Second bullet is just badly worded. Fine if they deleted “in borrowing”. The press release was designed for general consumption. It was one of those ones that no one with any dignity will use
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 26/08/2026
Column "Make no mistake, the US is suffering a debt crisis. It is, of course, not an acute emergency like Argentina’s...but it has the characteristics of a chronic disaster that everyone can see coming but the administration never does enough to avoid." www.ft.com/content/7588...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 25/08/2026
Think it’s worse than that…
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 12/08/2026
Absolutely mental
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 12/08/2026
Don’t want to make you cross but a bit further south
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 12/08/2026
Family in position. Beers and crisps. Suddenly rural Spain seems to have people
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 12/08/2026
First contact
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 12/08/2026
It’s Spain. It’s scorcio. And I’ve got my planned spot for the eclipse
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 04/08/2026
But it was also an extremely irritating form of rhetoric, talking process not substance. This is insulting to an audience
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 04/08/2026
We know financial markets did not like it. They raised US borrowing costs a lot more than Canadian ones as Warsh spoke
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 04/08/2026
The Fed goes WACKO: Warsh's Awful Communication: Knowingly Opaque Coming across as obtuse is a dangerous for unelected economic institutions My newsletter: www.ft.com/content/cbc7...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 31/07/2026
The ambitions of UK governments is decreasing. Instead of "kickstarting" growth... the new government is only claiming to have "begun to kickstart" growth.
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 28/07/2026
Since Kevin Warsh boasted about how volatility, bond yields and inflation expectations had fallen since he was sworn in... ... they have all reversed Perhaps, not such a genius
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 28/07/2026
Energy prices appear to be in a wide bounded equilibrium, but it is unstable... My newsletter www.ft.com/content/c1b2...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 21/07/2026
should avoid. Number 1 is something the new PM seems unable to grasp... www.ft.com/content/9df2...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 21/07/2026
There isn't a clear answer yet - probably Japan has more sense. And for the BoJ, there is now lots of evidence Japan is becoming a normal advanced economy. Wages and prices now rising steadily for example
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 21/07/2026
Will Japan's potential massive fiscal stimulus create a Honebuto-Shokku? (which is roughly translated into English as a Liz Truss moment) My newsletter: www.ft.com/content/da40...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 21/07/2026
One idea for money saving. Don’t send a crappy 25 notepad with the survey letter
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 07/07/2026
If kevin Warsh wants to avoid being caught with his pants down, he should avoid the BoE's communications from the 2000s... ...and confusing correlation and causation My newsletter: www.ft.com/content/8f35...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 30/06/2026
My central banks newsletter this week looks at the Supreme Court's rather thinner victory for Lisa Cook against Donald Trump than expected. Footnote 8 in the ruling is importantl she might well lose round 2. www.ft.com/content/c642...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 25/06/2026
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 10/06/2026
One way of measuring UK productivity shows a remarkable upturn since Labour came to office.... ... so is the UK witnessing a productivity revival? www.ft.com/content/161a...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 09/06/2026
If Kevin Warsh has to choose between his legacy and Trump's ire, he should pick the latter...There is probably a route through the middle... But the oil shock is making things difficult as this Boston Fed research shows. My newsletter www.ft.com/content/2356...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 19/05/2026
And the ECB thinks it is at neutral, while the Fed and BoE think rates are restrictive So - the only way is up for the ECB
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 19/05/2026
This shock is more global than Russia's invasion of Ukraine and that imparts more of an inflationary impulse
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 19/05/2026
Eurozone energy prices are higher than the March baseline, but not screaming "raise rates" But....that is not all My newsletter www.ft.com/content/19f0...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 14/04/2026
Q4 2026 over Q4 2025 UK growth forecast downgrade is smaller than Japan and Italy's - and the Eurozone for that matter IMF largely to blame for not highlighting economic activity that is forecast to take place in 2006 rather than that which has already happened
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 14/04/2026
This headline is not true (even though the IMF itself seems to believe it) The UK's annual average growth forecast downgrade for 2026 is larger than others. But this is due to what happened in 2025, not what might happen in 2026 due to Iran war...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 14/04/2026
The Iran war is difficult for advanced economies, but much harder for small Islands and sub-Saharan African countries that are net oil importers My newsletter www.ft.com/content/32fa...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 07/04/2026
But refined fuels (unlike food) are rising appropriately in price to stem demand...refinery margins are exploding For more analysis www.ft.com/content/b5f9...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 07/04/2026
Crude prices have risen 60% or so. Forwards will have to rise further to choke off sufficient demand unless the Strait is opened soon
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 07/04/2026
Even after mitigations, the Iran war reduces global liquid fuel supplies by at least 10% (That's half the size of the worst lockdown months of Covid) And prices of crude oil do not reflect this yet My newsletter as.ft.com/r/a3833ead-4...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 31/03/2026
Also in newsletter Remember how the Houthi rebels halved traffic through the Suez Canal in late 2023 it has not come back
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 31/03/2026
Oil prices and futures are currently similar to the ECB's adverse scenario - My newsletter explains how this fits into its three-pronged war strategy www.ft.com/content/5a15...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 17/03/2026
We still don't know how the War on Iran will work out. Central banks cannot just throw up their hands and curse their fate... they are players here My newsletter www.ft.com/content/950f...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 10/03/2026
What we know so far about the economic effects of the Gulf conflict (not much). And the markets are volatile My newsletter www.ft.com/content/a2c3...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 08/03/2026
Great day at the Engadin Ski Marathon.
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 04/03/2026
This is just the most incredible chart... if the UK government implements current policies on taxes and benefits, public debt is stable (contrary to what the OBR always mistakenly tells us) My column as.ft.com/r/e69f1407-e...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 18/02/2026
My column Everyone loves progressive tax changes in theory but seem to hate them when they face the consequeuences One for UK graduates on Plan 2 loans to read... as.ft.com/r/d9c65a3c-1...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 17/02/2026
It's tempting to say the US is following the Australian economic path...and inflation will follow labour market tightening Much too tempting My newsletter www.ft.com/content/1fab...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 17/02/2026
Why reliable data matters in one picture The UK's productivity performance is either: - still rubbish; or - improving greatly after a terrible spell You choose
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 03/02/2026
With Kevin Warsh at the Fed, will Trump do a Lula? Or will another scenario prevail? giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 22/12/2025
For people wanting a nerdy Christmas - an ebook resulting from a UK monetary policy roundtable (including a chapter from me) 2 topics: - what to do when the next large negative shock hits - how to communicate uncertainty niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/u...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 12/12/2025
The economy is 7.4 per cent better than BoE expected in Nov 2022
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