Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 29/09/2026Central banks always think interest rate rates operate on demand. But what if tighter policy makes people want to work more? That labour supply effect can be large. People with high debts worked more when Australia tightened, for example My newsletter: www.ft.com/content/a060... 2205
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 22/09/2026With Kevin Warsh boycotting the dot plot, it must be dying... My newsletter asks whether we should mourn? Probably not, but not because it locks people into their forecasts - it doesn't www.ft.com/content/ba73... 1112
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 17/09/2026Anyway, (for various complicated reasons due to survey quality) the upshot is measured annual UK productivity per hour since the GFC will be revised up from 1.1% to 1.3% 2144
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 10/09/2026My column: I am intolerant of lazy stereotypes, accusing Europeans of being work-shy layabouts, degenerately dependent on welfare instead of doing an honest day’s work Europe doesn't need a crisis, it needs more successful gradual reform www.ft.com/content/362b... 06915
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 08/09/2026Donald Trump might say silly things and appear to put the Fed under pressure... ... In fact there are more interesting connections between fiscal and monetary policy than crude fiscal dominance in a high debt world www.ft.com/content/dda7... 0223
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 01/09/2026Not sure. First bullet is correct (if you think making a promise you might well not keep is important). Second bullet is just badly worded. Fine if they deleted “in borrowing”. The press release was designed for general consumption. It was one of those ones that no one with any dignity will use 030
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 26/08/2026Column "Make no mistake, the US is suffering a debt crisis. It is, of course, not an acute emergency like Argentina’s...but it has the characteristics of a chronic disaster that everyone can see coming but the administration never does enough to avoid." www.ft.com/content/7588... 85418
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 12/08/2026Family in position. Beers and crisps. Suddenly rural Spain seems to have people 1390
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 12/08/2026It’s Spain. It’s scorcio. And I’ve got my planned spot for the eclipse 6967
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 04/08/2026But it was also an extremely irritating form of rhetoric, talking process not substance. This is insulting to an audience 2194
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 04/08/2026We know financial markets did not like it. They raised US borrowing costs a lot more than Canadian ones as Warsh spoke 1172
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 04/08/2026The Fed goes WACKO: Warsh's Awful Communication: Knowingly Opaque Coming across as obtuse is a dangerous for unelected economic institutions My newsletter: www.ft.com/content/cbc7... 211616
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 31/07/2026The ambitions of UK governments is decreasing. Instead of "kickstarting" growth... the new government is only claiming to have "begun to kickstart" growth. 281
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 28/07/2026Since Kevin Warsh boasted about how volatility, bond yields and inflation expectations had fallen since he was sworn in... ... they have all reversed Perhaps, not such a genius 0268
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 28/07/2026Energy prices appear to be in a wide bounded equilibrium, but it is unstable... My newsletter www.ft.com/content/c1b2... 1196
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 21/07/2026should avoid. Number 1 is something the new PM seems unable to grasp... www.ft.com/content/9df2... 5333
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 21/07/2026There isn't a clear answer yet - probably Japan has more sense. And for the BoJ, there is now lots of evidence Japan is becoming a normal advanced economy. Wages and prices now rising steadily for example 090
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 21/07/2026Will Japan's potential massive fiscal stimulus create a Honebuto-Shokku? (which is roughly translated into English as a Liz Truss moment) My newsletter: www.ft.com/content/da40... 1458
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 21/07/2026One idea for money saving. Don’t send a crappy 25 notepad with the survey letter 021
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 07/07/2026If kevin Warsh wants to avoid being caught with his pants down, he should avoid the BoE's communications from the 2000s... ...and confusing correlation and causation My newsletter: www.ft.com/content/8f35... 3288
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 30/06/2026My central banks newsletter this week looks at the Supreme Court's rather thinner victory for Lisa Cook against Donald Trump than expected. Footnote 8 in the ruling is importantl she might well lose round 2. www.ft.com/content/c642... 2257
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 10/06/2026One way of measuring UK productivity shows a remarkable upturn since Labour came to office.... ... so is the UK witnessing a productivity revival? www.ft.com/content/161a... 69842
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 09/06/2026If Kevin Warsh has to choose between his legacy and Trump's ire, he should pick the latter...There is probably a route through the middle... But the oil shock is making things difficult as this Boston Fed research shows. My newsletter www.ft.com/content/2356... 1394
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 19/05/2026And the ECB thinks it is at neutral, while the Fed and BoE think rates are restrictive So - the only way is up for the ECB 0111
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 19/05/2026This shock is more global than Russia's invasion of Ukraine and that imparts more of an inflationary impulse 1132
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 19/05/2026Eurozone energy prices are higher than the March baseline, but not screaming "raise rates" But....that is not all My newsletter www.ft.com/content/19f0... 1264
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 14/04/2026Q4 2026 over Q4 2025 UK growth forecast downgrade is smaller than Japan and Italy's - and the Eurozone for that matter IMF largely to blame for not highlighting economic activity that is forecast to take place in 2006 rather than that which has already happened 172
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 14/04/2026This headline is not true (even though the IMF itself seems to believe it) The UK's annual average growth forecast downgrade for 2026 is larger than others. But this is due to what happened in 2025, not what might happen in 2026 due to Iran war... 33616
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 14/04/2026The Iran war is difficult for advanced economies, but much harder for small Islands and sub-Saharan African countries that are net oil importers My newsletter www.ft.com/content/32fa... 1336
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 07/04/2026But refined fuels (unlike food) are rising appropriately in price to stem demand...refinery margins are exploding For more analysis www.ft.com/content/b5f9... 1228
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 07/04/2026Crude prices have risen 60% or so. Forwards will have to rise further to choke off sufficient demand unless the Strait is opened soon 1178
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 07/04/2026Even after mitigations, the Iran war reduces global liquid fuel supplies by at least 10% (That's half the size of the worst lockdown months of Covid) And prices of crude oil do not reflect this yet My newsletter as.ft.com/r/a3833ead-4... 36323
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 31/03/2026Also in newsletter Remember how the Houthi rebels halved traffic through the Suez Canal in late 2023 it has not come back 23614
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 31/03/2026Oil prices and futures are currently similar to the ECB's adverse scenario - My newsletter explains how this fits into its three-pronged war strategy www.ft.com/content/5a15... 64217
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 17/03/2026We still don't know how the War on Iran will work out. Central banks cannot just throw up their hands and curse their fate... they are players here My newsletter www.ft.com/content/950f... 3207
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 10/03/2026What we know so far about the economic effects of the Gulf conflict (not much). And the markets are volatile My newsletter www.ft.com/content/a2c3... 2293
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 04/03/2026This is just the most incredible chart... if the UK government implements current policies on taxes and benefits, public debt is stable (contrary to what the OBR always mistakenly tells us) My column as.ft.com/r/e69f1407-e... 58425
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 18/02/2026My column Everyone loves progressive tax changes in theory but seem to hate them when they face the consequeuences One for UK graduates on Plan 2 loans to read... as.ft.com/r/d9c65a3c-1... 216716
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 17/02/2026It's tempting to say the US is following the Australian economic path...and inflation will follow labour market tightening Much too tempting My newsletter www.ft.com/content/1fab... 2329
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 17/02/2026Why reliable data matters in one picture The UK's productivity performance is either: - still rubbish; or - improving greatly after a terrible spell You choose 74512
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 03/02/2026With Kevin Warsh at the Fed, will Trump do a Lula? Or will another scenario prevail? giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... 6306
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 22/12/2025For people wanting a nerdy Christmas - an ebook resulting from a UK monetary policy roundtable (including a chapter from me) 2 topics: - what to do when the next large negative shock hits - how to communicate uncertainty niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/u... 193
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 12/12/2025The economy is 7.4 per cent better than BoE expected in Nov 2022 23710